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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Quicken

  1. I think the push to do more will come because of things like this: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jul/19/met-office-issues-first-ever-extreme-heat-warning-uk
  2. Nightlcubs and cars are both 19th century inventions as far as I know.
  3. It's also a not so subtle nudge to do the right thing and stop being carriers/spreaders. Needed to be done somehow.
  4. Good question. On balance I think it will end because of fear of debt at the treasury.
  5. A vaccine passport a. Limits you only from going to nightclubs and other mass events, b. Going to nightclubs without vaccinating presents genuine risks. So, nothing new really.
  6. I posted this elsewhere, but it is also relevant here. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/19/ministers-mull-national-insurance-rise-to-fund-social-care NI. Not paid by pensioners.
  7. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/19/tight-policy-not-the-right-policy-says-bank-of-england-expert No chance of an early rate rise I'm afraid folks.
  8. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/19/ministers-mull-national-insurance-rise-to-fund-social-care So NI or income tax seem to be the preferred options for round one. Breaking the manifesto pledge either way. Escalation will get easier from there.
  9. In macroeconomic terms, interest rates have been too low for the entirety of this century, which has raised the asset prices for those with wealth, while simultaneously destroying productivity and wage increases. Toxic recipe.
  10. To be clear, on average Gen X are not as hard done by as younger generations. Some were able to ride on the coat tails of the boomers. I feel sorry for younger generations. They will suffer for the pensions greed of the older generations. As a cohort, the Boomers never paid enough for the generous pensions they will receive. Later generations are being called upon to pay the bill.
  11. Here's another one from the US: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charting-the-growing-generational-wealth-gap/
  12. I see - divide and conquer, just blame gen X eh? Gen X haven't retired yet, and they're set to retire much later than their parents (with similar life expectancy). That drawbridge is being pulled up and not by Gen X. I am late Gen X, but stayed at University for a long time getting a masters and PhD. So I started work in 2007, by which time house prices were batsh*t crazy out of reach (as we all know here). And they have remained that way ever since. Hence there is a whole cohort of gen rent (it doesn't exactly map to date of birth cohorts) heading towards retirement without a hope of owning. That is the big generational divide. Disposable income is only one half of the game (and your graph above did not define what constitutes disposable - before or after housing costs?). Wealth is more important than income. e.g. https://www.ft.com/content/c69b49de-1368-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e
  13. That is false. Read more here: https://populationmatters.org/mythbusting
  14. I've said it before: The triple lock should be applied to base rates not pensions.
  15. I do, yes. I think the split actually occurs within the 'Gen X' as defined there. Early gen x were actually still part of the uk second baby boom that ended early 70s. Anyway, that has little to do with the ludicrous triple lock rules.
  16. LittleKOi, so you think 20 percent max cgt is fair vs 40 plus employer ni plus employee ni? Then there is EIS, SEIS, entrepreneurs relief... My feeling is the tax hammer will fall somewhere. Where do think it will or should?
  17. Well that's fine, but those people need to have the integrity to admit that we would not be coming out of lockdown restrictions without the vaccination programme massively lowering the hospital and death burden per infection. Indeed, we'd be heading right back into hard lockdown in this wave without the effects of the vaccine. That is called free-riding.
  18. It's a fair point. The flat tax at 25% with no indexation and no allowance is a compromise, but indexation at marginal income tax rate (also with no allowance beyond the existing personal allowance on income tax) would be a reasonable alternative.
  19. And let us not forget this was the state of play back in 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/feb/13/pensioners-now-20-a-week-better-off-than-working-households https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38957903
  20. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57734805 Easy money
  21. Debenhams zombied along for far far longer than I expected after it was cleaned out. Low interest rates feed the zombies.
  22. In response to the OP, my current medium term plan is to stay in Scotland which can take a bit of warming and has good fresh water resources. Of course, it is possible that the North Atlantic circulation shuts down and we actually get significant cooling in Scotland as a result of global warming. That will involve adapting the plan.
  23. Interest rates haven't yet 'moved on' from the post 2007 crash. Nor have QE programs. I'm not so sure things will have 'moved on' by 2027 in those respects. I see the point you're making about the arguments that will be made for relaxing regulations though, and I shudder at the thought. Nice light touch regulations -> Financial crisis, cladding scandal, etc.
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