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boom_and_bust

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Everything posted by boom_and_bust

  1. Read the papers today? Yep, that's why the only remaining, motivated buyers out there - investors -have been staying away. It's getting more dificult to get BTL mortgage approvals nowadays and the returns are poor and risky for new entrants in comprison to other investments. Income multiples for FTB's are impossible. They are using the internet and finding out the figures don't add up. Depends whether the loaning firms want to take massive hits on their stock prices and face disciplinary action by the FSA for unsound practices. For the individual, you still will have a poor credit history for many years and face much stress, humilation and anxiety. ?!?! DO you want to reconsider that view or do you propose that knowingly entering into potential bancruptcy situations is a good way to go for the individual, for business, for society? Do you think that treating bankruptcy like a parking ticket is a mature and responsinble way for adults to behave? Debt levels seem to be doing the trick. Sterling has been edgy of late. You say 'peak'. A bubble is easier to identify than the bust stage. That is why it is boom and bust. You know it's coming, it's just when is the dificult part to get right down to the week, day and month of the year. People were talking about a bubble and burst for a few years into the late eightees, many people saw it coming, only a few got the tming correct to within a couple of months. You can't really make that call until you look back, later on, with more complete figures, stories and reporting. And if prices have just 'peaked', it is too early to say 'stabalise'. You can apply that term three or four years down the line, when looking back at this time in history because the majority of 'spin' figures we are fed are backward reported anyway and selective. Follow the links here for what that means if that sentence doesn't mean anything to you. I beleive short term. Like the Spanish and Portuguese entrants in the late eightees. Came for a while, made some money and lived frugally on the basis of a high currency, most went back. Spain and Portugal are booming a decade later, better opportunites, better homes and house prices in native country (maybe not now, similar bubble problem in Spain now). The east of europe is infact a very pretty place in parts with some good property bargains and increasing economic opportunities. I think you need to go to places like Prague, Brataslava and Budapest for yourself to see that it is far from a backward hellhole. The Lativian prime minister infact was quoted to say, a year or so before entry to the EU, that he did not fear a mass exodus and brain drain because, when people experience poorer living conditions in a london inner-city combined with a high cost of living, any that do go will return sooner or later. Until the rebalance in the economy is complete within our debt and housing situation in the UK, I agree with him. So we should just throw away economics then? It is a non-valid discipline? (I speak as someone who started a career as a research engineer before I moved over to business roles). The study of Tulip bulbs in the Netherlands and Gold in the colonial Spanish Empire, many hundreds of years ago, are still used as reference texts in business seminars and economics market education. Doesn't matter though? They got it wrong? Maybe because a Tsunami happened over a year ago, it might happen again? Let's leave it there. http://www.therockalltimes.co.uk/2004/12/2...atastrophe.html tsunami catastrophe: UK house prices unaffected
  2. Hi, 12 months in arrears. I remember, in years past, going three or fours months in arrears on mortgages, on a couple of occasions, and genuinely fearing imminent repocession. I know the world is a more 'liquid' place nowadays but 12 months IS a longtime. I am not sure it would have been tolerated 10-15 years ago. If you added that figure to the processed repocession orders so far, you are not far off the repocession levels for 1989, when the last bubble had only just popped. Let's keep a tag on this over the year and see if it plays out. The old VI spinline about high interest rates necessary for a correction is looking less and less plausible all the time now (at a time incidently of rising unemployment to boot). Could you imagine what a run on sterling now would do to the economy with this outstanding debt and arrears level in the economy? Think about it before you sign your life away at the top of a bubble. Boomer
  3. Hi, And let's remind ourselves again of Brown's delicious quote in 1997 ; "No more boom and bust." http://www.therockalltimes.co.uk/2005/04/2...r-disarray.html
  4. Hi, I am quite happy to eat humble pie on this occassion after highlighting the Independent as a pro-bubble VI in previous posts. I am quite surprised they broke ranks and started reporting what, seemingly for the past few years, is really happening out there. Booming property, booming repocessions and bankruptcies. It's not rocket science to link the two, Gordon Brown has been at the latter-day printing press for several years and non-headline inflation is catching up with the economy. Well done Independent! I salute you. Boomer
  5. Hi, Beggars belief. HOW is this news and not just advertising (for which the BBC are not meant to do. Hummm, wonder if anyone is receiving brown envelopes stuffed full of used tenners in a car park in Acton, late in the night)? And why don't they just print at the bottom of the article ; "If you would like to discuss any issues relating this article, the Halifax building Society are waiting to take your call NOW" Here you go Mr. and Ms. BBC if you're reading, I've got another groundbreaking "research" article for you to reprint ; http://www.therockalltimes.co.uk/2002/01/2...ndividuals.html Boffins discover how to quieten bothersome individuals Results of ten-year study released today by Kieren McCarthy
  6. Hello, My copy of the Herald Tribune this morning had a nice little article (by Bloomburg analyst John Wasik) about timing investment decisions and relative risks within the current US real estate market. Guess it's kind of relevant for us as the currency markets are watching the US housing developments w.r.t. sterling and the UK housing market. Something else to consider, it's come evening time so you can view online now if you so desired. Investing: In the housing market, risk is like a leaky roof By John F. Wasik, Bloomberg News. http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/30/blo...rg/bxinvest.php
  7. Hi, Canada is great! And the west seaboards are mild, gentle winters, nice long, hot summers. Friendly people, fantastic standard of living. If you have desire to escape the rat race then either Rockall ; http://www.therockalltimes.co.uk/policy/pe...s-republic.html Or maybe Hierro if Ryan air start going there. Boomer
  8. Hi, Whenever there is a fresh bull-run-perspective on some current news, do well to follow up the links here for the press reporting during the last crash. I don't know how many people here can clearly remember the last one (or indeed the one before that) but even around 1991 I clearly remember a lot of confusion, mixed messages flying around in the press and the lender stats. It's all here, just look and make you're own mind up. Even if a big surge was about to happen (excuse my while I duck that low flying pig), you've seen all the perspectives on that - basically you'll be screwed even if you did try to jump on the housing bubble and make a 10x self-cert income mortgage. If inflation stayed low, you'll be living in that miserable box for the rest of your debt-angst-ridden days. If it does go up, how are you going to keep up the payments when the interest rates go up? It's not to be negative, you may get a mega career jump during that time, you may win the lottery, a lot of things may let you get out of that undesireable position. I say 1991 because I personally know someone who took a near 50% hit on a flat in that year when many of the indices and reports were saying 'bottoming out but broadly steady, some falls, some rises, but next year will be greeat! blah, blah, blah'. You weigh it up and then also look at the wage rates quoted around the country for many jobs to realise that even if you personally can scam a 10x self-cert, you will be in a minority and the hardest hit when Gordon's economic chicken's finally come home to roost. And roost they will, much commentary has recently being given to Gordon's dire economic facade and the deteriorating position. Even Mr. economist-housing VI David Smith at the Times - who simultaneously berates the Chancellor's reckless position in the economy and the nose dive in the economy but then says that oh, well, housing won't be affected because, er, well, it's kindof like, er, can we talk about something else,...... It's not healthy to be thinking of X-File conspiracies and the housing market but it's just as unhealthy not to think that spining does not go on. All I can say is that this feels no different to the very early ninetees when the likes of Halliwide were pumping out some mixed but broadly ok housing indice figures and publications like the Times were saying 'this year set for big boost' when infact, afterwards, we saw things were very sickly just a couple of years later. They spun and lied last time. You think to yourself if they cried wolf once to many times and if they would do it again, read their commentary from last time, think about how much they have riding on this and why you will likely not see some of the big regional falls last year mentioned anywhere. Boomer
  9. Hi, Need not go to vegas. 18 months ago I moved 15k within a unit trust fund into blue chip Japanese & far east stocks (and I mean low risk, big name corporations, very little risk, no tech or commodites, high street type fund, I made no specialist analysis or market angle for that punt) and that part of the holding is over 34K now. To be hoping to make barely a third of that after several years, with a highly geared, risky investment over my head, in a market where, in some parts of the country last year by many "indices" showed some decent falls, with a turbulent economic outlook, and so on ......(unless it was an sole property, that I could reasonably afford on a reypayment mortgage that might the kind of place I could stay in eventually for the long term. Still a very unattractive proposition for such a single guy). The Banks and Ea's are really great at scamming the British public in the property market and I pretty sure that interest only mortgages, 5-10 years down the line, will be viewed in much the same way as endownment mortgages have been recently, a financial scam of the day. Anyway, back on the principality of Rockall, there may be some short term hope for his asset value with a spring bounce ; http://www.therockalltimes.co.uk/2002/09/1...use-prices.html
  10. Hi, Haa, again, we need to look westwards, to the Island state of Rockall. http://www.therockalltimes.co.uk/2002/12/0...use-prices.html
  11. Hi, Well, some academics on the principality of Rockall have already given an in-depth analysis of Britain's housing bubble. An interesting perspective on the uk's dependence on house price inflation to drive the economy. http://www.therockalltimes.co.uk/2004/03/2...est-prices.html
  12. hello, rightmove? Hello? Yes, just a little question about that website of yours. Why do seem to have several properties with 'sold' stickers next to them for over a year? What's all about? I don't mean 'sold subject to contract', I mean 'sold'. Well, are they sold or not? Yes, that's it, in London SW14, 15 and 18. What's the deal there? Hello...anyone there...hello
  13. Hi, having pursued the Halliwide by written correspondence through most of last year on specific points about their "indices", I pretty much feel 'mix-adjustment' and 'main indices' are of little relevance to their methodology. Their calculations are about as watertight as a sieve. I am not saying bull**** but ...... And if they want to stand up in court against me and defend it, bring it on! My corrspondence last year all but said that and they never came back to me on it. There are plenty of links here, including a post I made some time ago, quoting a bank of England report, that calls into question the objectiveness and soundness of their methodolgy. THEY SAID THE MARKET WAS FINE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE BOTTOM OF THE LAST CRASH IN THE PRESS AND IN THEIR INDICES. They held out all the way until they just looked plain stupid, then changed tack. All their indices say to me is that if they show some modest falls in the figures, the real situation, in some cases, will be much worse. Agreed though, it needs to become a very regular occurance in reporting before anything very concrete is attached to it. There are still a majority of people out there who are totally oblivious to the idea that housing is a market, whether it is healthy or sick. None of the localised, heavy falls here are going to get mentioned by the current bun, trevor McDonut or Jeremy Pacman. 'Til consumer debt and Gordon's Miracle Economy is biting them firmly sur la derriere, and they are staring into the cold, remorseless eyes of a snarling repo agent and his pet pitbull called 'hanabal', will any attention get paid to it. You need to smell the fear before crash cruise sets in. I think it does vindcate any HPC'ers over the past two years for many properties. Wherever you go forward from here, most people will be up so far. Boomer
  14. Hi, And this is a labour ("socilialst") government?!? I thought they didn't believe in such naughtiness?! About the only thing'ALbour' about NuLab is a propensity to overspend the nation into a debt nightmare. They did it last time, they've done it again. Except this time it is the treasury AND Mr and mrs. Joe Citizen. I wonder if the IMF will issue 0% credit cards to UK citizens, this time around. Boomer
  15. Hi, Herein lies the real quandry for me. On a local level, in my area of London, I have kept a spreadsheet of the sales properties in my postal area from rightmove, findaproperty and my local foxton's and independent. I do not see high transactions, I honestly just do not and I have kept the record going back two years. infact, there are still a number - maybe 20% of the list - that have been there the whole time, only slightly falling in valuation but not selling. Two of them I walk past everyday - a 4 bed house and a 2 bed flat have been unoccupied during that time. It just does not fit with the things I personally know and see on a daily basis. And then we hear about all these new build developments - particulalry in the Docklands - that are lying idle. And then we hear about a girl 'raffling' her property in the paper the other week because it will not sell. And the stinkin' pigs buying at BVM because forced sellers cannot sell in the current market. The expat forum is full of folks waiting a year or more and still not selling. It is not just me, I know as well, because other people mention similar things to me from time to time, so I know I am not a complete loon. Where is it happening then? How are these figures just so out of whack with my daily life? I remember well previous years of boom where 'sale' and 'sold' signs were up and down within a week. That is not what I see now. Boomer
  16. Hi, And while you're at it, why not ask www.findaproperty.co.uk why, in my area (sw15), they have had a small selection of the same properties with red 'sold' stickers next to them for 12-24 months in certain instances. Don't get it. Are they sold or not? It's not the STC selection, it's the 'sold' ones, so why are they still there month after month? Boomer
  17. Hi, Yep, if you are struggling for debt as a working couple, you will be REALLY struggling with debt as a single. Single life is usually more expensive. And if you are in a bad relationship, logic can go out of the window and you can make some very irrational decisions come house sales time viz-a-viz price. I've seen friends do it, get to the point where it is just a case of "Can't live like this anymore, can't carry on, blah, bah, blah". At which point, cue the couch at boomer's home for a few nights til' they patch it up. This article is about as sea worthy as a sieve. Very, very lazy article. Boomer
  18. Hi, Lazy VI spinning as well. What next for these straw clutchers? I'll have a go on behalf of Miles Shipside and Fionna at the Nationwide ; 'People flock for riverside London appartments so they can watch whales swimming up the Thames, along their natural migratory paths. The desirability of this natural splendour has city executives and arab sheiks clambering to the banks of the Thames with knock on affects for surrounding boroughs, Henk Potts added. Tourism officials have also noticed a surge of foreign travellers coming to witness the spectacle each year. 'Why go to Baja Calafornia or the Norweigian Fjords when you can get a better view and a better Cafe Latte by the Thames?', an expert added.' Cue obligatory advertisment photo of a twenties or thirties glamour couple relaxing be the coffee table in their new build appartment, patio doors open, looking at the view across the water with porpoises pirowetting into the air and great blue whales blowing jets of water into the sky. I did like this one from the BBC about binge drinking and house prices last year; http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4306226.stm Boomer
  19. Hi, It is interesting to see where it goes from here becuase my hunch is it a short term phenomena like the Spanish and Potuguese entry into the EU 18 years ago. Initially, there was a surge of folk, particularly high skilled workers, who came over for a few years but then slowly went back as the opportunities and conditions back home improved. The added attraction this time around for the new country entrants to the EU is that the UK is running a high exchange value on it's currency so when you return or send money back home, you also gain on the currency transfers. We have recently been working collaboratively with a German firm based in prague and I have to say, having spent a little time there, I could certainly see the appeal of living there, or one of the surrounding countries, if I was born there. Although we get the impression they are grim, soviet-style concrete dormitories, is infact quite far from the truth. Poland in particular has some very beautiful countryside. And the summers are very pleasant in that part of the world, people naturally friendly and humorous and a lot of very tall, blonde attractive people, skantily clad in the summer months. The one thing communism seemed to do in the historical cities centres is to preserve the old architecture and buildings. I was surprised how inexpensive some very desirable loft appartments or town houses were there. Certainly better value than a newbuild plaster-wall hutch in many UK cities. You get real stone, high ceilings and a pretty view outside your home there for a fraction of the cost. And I can't talk for the whole region but I noticed a lot of Americain global-brand firms setting up plants in the outer suburbs of Prague and Bratislava. So, I would wager, from my own experience of the region and having talked to a few of the folk we are working with over here, it is a case of 'aufedersein pet' for many coming over to work and they are 'grin-and-bearing' it over here for a while. Boomer
  20. Hi, Yes, yet another example of 'ethical' British companies who are very quick to jump down the throats of globalised corporations, or despot governments overseas or lay their bleeding hearts on their sleeve for baby whales swimming up the thames, confused by the affects of global warming and poor lentil crops in the Sudan. They usually splash their hypocracy all over the sunday supplements of the Independent and Guardian. Ignore their marketing hypocracy. They are no different in motives to any other company out there, they just try to pretend they are. They should just stop the marketing charade and try to compete on real issues with their high street competitors (like price, service quality, etc), IMHO. Hummm, 8*times income mortgages, very ethical. If it was happening somewhere else in the world they would be 'tut, tutting' all the way, you can be sure. Boomer
  21. Hi, I don't think it is official. I think maybe it is one of those fetish type sites. Y'know, like PVC transexuals, voyeurs, shemales, spanking, medial curiosities, that kind of thing....I think.....I wouldn't know......someone told me......allegedly. Boomer
  22. hi, I am quite surprised that they haven't yet latched onto that woman's idea in the papers yesterday to hold a raffle for the properties. Healthy market, huh? It is starting to sound a bit like the last crash now with these stories emerging of stranded sellers. I think a fair number of FTB's will not likely remember this aspect of a sick housing market, the frustration of putting your life on hold because you cannot sell, watching te market falling around you. It really was not a long time ago, every decade or so it rears it 's ugly head again. boomer
  23. Hi, 6 months ago had a pretty big gold filling in a west end dental practice. £790 if you don't mind (would have been nearly half the cost if I had done it while in Canada. Had no choice about the Gold filling, apparantly gold is the only way to go for large ones, more malable or something to wear and tear). Still, gold is the hot investment at the moment. And I notice this year that not only has the London bus ticket gone up 25%, tube ticket 50% but also my daily paper about 15%. And you know that harmonising the headline rate here with the EU is very convenient for Gordon given that the Uk has the highest average property costs per metre squared within the EU (source : ECB and FNAIM). So basically, even small rises in property prices within the UK will have a greater impact on UK household budgets than within the other EU nations. Even though probably Ireland are the only other EU nation to appraoch the rise in valuations that the UK has seen. It's all rigged but I am going to leave there for this evening. Boomer
  24. Hi, Do you care to expand on ; Recent reports have shown that despite a slow economic growth house prices are still rising above the rate of inflation. Which indices are you using for that call? In what way do you attach particular credence to that indice compared to another that may be contradictary (some indices showed house price falls last year). Although many of you don't want to believe this, that fact is house prices are rising again. I pitty the first time buyer as by the end of 2006 unless you have wealthy parents or a very good job then buying a house could prove impossible. FTB's are at an historical low. Investor numbers have shown to be falling with some lenders pulling out of investor loaning altogether. Where do you see the continued growth and confidence within the market to maintiain or rise these valuations? The reason for this increase is simple, there's simply not enough houses and its supply and demand. People need housing and they will pay what ever it costs to get on the ladder. As long as Banks are willing to lend then there's going to be someone out there willing to borrow. The demand and supply issues and demographics are little different to the last crash except a rise in the age of the population and more investors in the market. Banks are infact tightening lending criterias and some withdrawing from some sectors of loaning. Can you be more specific on these issues? The only way house prices will go down is if interest rates soar as this will result in house reposessions and reluctance to borrow. I don't think we'll see this in the next 5 years....maybe when oil runs low but not yet. Interest rates could soar if there was a run on sterling. Currency has always been a problemaric issue to the UK economy and was infact the cause of the last large scale hike in rates (but note that house prices were already falling before that event). In what ways do you now see the UK currency as inherently stable compared to the past? Do you not see the debt levels of the uk as an issue? Please can you elaborate. Boomer
  25. Hi, While I am rock solid, assuredly convinced of an impending correction, I do search all sides of the debate. I've lived and traded through two before and this one feels no different at all from the 'gut' level. But, here are a few of the lastest, academics counter arguments I've digested recently. Two in collaboration with a UK economic academic (John Smullen) available through the capco institute (you may have to register but it is free) and a third on the Australian housing market by an Australian governmant policy body. It is a good research on possible factors that are historically unique to the current bubble. Demographics is strongly sited as one but chillingly, there is identifiaction of concerted government policy to shift personal debt and pension funding issues onto the individual in deliberate support of the bubble, the housing market being the primary route. (Very frightening if true - government interference has almost always lead to catastrophie in markets, historically). I personally think the demographics will shift the argument the other way in the long term (who will buy larger houses when the demographics are heading towards lower or no families for lower generations and falling populations, which in turn have always led to lower economic growth and wealth). It is not bear-friendly although I notice the get out clauses in all the 'soft-landing analysis' - that a sharp correction could occur at any time. The UK is also cited as the riskiest housing market in Europe. 'Bear' in mind, it is very rare that anyone predics the exact timing of corrections with any great regularity or consistency. If they could, there would likely never be boom and bust cycles! Residential Property – What Role in Individual Wealth and Investment? http://www.capco.com/uploadedFiles/Members...5/j15_art19.pdf The European residential property market: A series of structural anomalies http://www.capco.com/uploadedFiles/Members.../j14_art_12.pdf After the House Price Boom: Is this the end of the Australian dream? http://www.cis.org.au/Policy/autumn05/polaut05-1.htm
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