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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by boom_and_bust

  1. Hi, 'Self employed' in Gordy's Alice-in-wonderland economic miracle and unemployment stats means, for many I suspect, casual worker that forfiets the right to any state help. But you still have to pay for it. And then he can go off and crow to the EU about British full employment compared to Euro-slackers, not mentioning the 4 million or so on incapacity benefit or the armies of our 'self employed' entrepenuers, who probably could be classified as unemployed for periods of each year.
  2. Hi, Exactly. Easter must be the single busiest few days of the year for serious buyers to be searching. And this really is a nothing story, very vague, not based on any current development or domestic news. It probably does sit on a hard drive somewhere in the offices as a generic template. Why didn't they print it last week or the week after? There is some pretty big news around at the moment, yesterday and today, like Iran and the discussions this week in the UN for sanctions, the chaos at home on the roads that started with the bank holiday exodus, Professor David King's new research on climate change, the new developments in the push for Rumsfeld's resingnation over Iraq, the 12 business men who lent to labour illegally and are going to jail, Zacarias Moussaoui (uk citizen) about to be sentenced to possible death for 9/11, the pope's speaking out today against genetic research, for which the UK has many business interests in, blah, blah, blah, This is not a slack day for news stories. I don't get the mail, I expect them to be pro-bubble insanity but every now and again they seem to print stories like "property meltdown : run to the hills". Very inconsistent journalism.
  3. The great euro ****-up Map of Scandinavia provokes international ridicule by Lester Haines http://www.therockalltimes.co.uk/2002/02/1...ro-****-up.html (BTW - I love Scandanavia v. much, spent a wonderful summer many years ago in Oslo and Malmo)
  4. Hi, Problem is, in a bubble fever, as we have seen in history and in the past, greed, corruption and insanity can permeate even sound businesses. The FSA, Bank of England, Treasury, etc., are meant to apply a break to our innate, self destructive behaviour (humans that is). It seems we never learn. Maybe we are in a new paradigm. From where I look, world interest rates are climbing, the British economy is faltering and unemployment, bancruptcies and repocessions have been climbing for over a year. I also think that some institutions know that NuLab will try to ride out the housing boom as long as they can (a point not lost on the markets) but eventually, it will most likely be the government (aka tax payers) who foot the bill for those unfortunates who materialise when the specultors pull out. 4x income is not shocking but more likely it could be 6x, 7x, or more, for most folk to get a foot up.
  5. Really? When did it change? I thought Gordy's last master stroke for VIA's was still in place. Although, it would be a step in the right direction.
  6. Dear Ms. Kate Barker, Trading shares on zero interest credit cards increases wealth as well. Best thing is, it's unsecured debt so if the gamble goes bad, you can walk away and come back with a clean record two years later. No neg equity or downers like that. hope that helps,
  7. Hi, Hummm, it is a bit soft of them. I expect it to be balanced with the usual EA "eeee, when I were lad, things were hard, eeee, much harder lad ......." I always think of the "Four Yorkshire men sketch" from Monty Python when wiggleswoth and Krusty play that old tune on the fiddle. http://www.phespirit.info/montypython/four_yorkshiremen.htm
  8. Hi, Don't froget the vast tracts of development land held for decades at a time by independent firms to restrict supply.
  9. Hi, The site is fine. If you want a wider audience for the subject (OK, I mean people more actively thinking about the issues on the street, not necessarily coming forward for solutions or assistance), get politically active. I have certainly noticed more media coverage now on the problems of housing. The Libdems, Conservatives, UKip, BNP, are all making central policy issues on it because it is one area they can attack NuLab on that they will not counter (House prices are unsustainable, damaging the economy and will worsen the pensions crisis for future generations - labour cannot dare let them fall as it will be seen in breach of it's election promises of no more boom and bust. Well, it would have been easier to control the excessive boom and avoid the can of worms but there you go). Certainly as a parent I am noticing more and more peers finally asking "how will my children have homes and families of their own?" Many people who have done well off the excessive boom are starting to see the longer term problems, the economy draining of momentum, the record levels of debt, the plumeting birth rates, even Mr Mike Dicken - the grumpy one of Talk Radio - LBC chat shows devoted a lengthy programme to it last week. Gordy and Tony have reaked havoc on the economic future of UK plc but I personally prefer HPC as a place to watch the market spasming and twitching under the current levels of overpricing, trying to see how Gordy and the "Independent bank of england" combined with lemming-lending policies of the banks, plan to get out of the mess.
  10. Hi, If Gordy cannot even comeup with a solution to house his own people so they can breed themselves, what the **** is he doing in Africa to 'help' those unfortunate people? I personally think it is some kind of globalisation wheeze type thing he is invloved in to further bugger up their ability to compete in world markets and further enslave them to a debt-dependency relationship with the west .......... hey! Just like he has done so far with the younger British generations and UK property speculators. Boomer
  11. Hi, I really don't think it will cause any change unless there is a seriously quick mutation of the virus and we get a few dozen deaths amonst morning commuters on the trains. Sars is still around and that did rapidly kill a large number of people in Beijing, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Vancouver and Toronto. Isolation methods bought it under control and monitoring quite quickly, it is still around, just as much as bird flu and arguably is more dangerous because it is already in a highly contagious, mutated form now. Without some very, very rapid change, I can't really see bird flu calming the housing madness at all. I would roast my swan meat very well though at the moment, you never know. Boomer
  12. Hi, I liked the episode one week where they showed the biggest gyspy settlement - looked like nearly a thousand of them and virtually a new village on the map. They have been there so long, there are so many of them and so many permanent constructions there that the local government can't move them on because it would cost tens of millions and and require a small army of Soldiers, police and bailifs, even if they could get all the eviction notices delivered in the first place. I guess it's their solution to HPI and peak oil prices. A novel approach to the government's 'shared ownership' arragement.
  13. Hi, Remember also that Prescot is tightening up on standards with the new landlord license and mutli-occupancy specifications. BTL is a bit - possibly a fair bit - more expensive and bureacratic from this financial year on. And oh yeah, I bet it won't be long before the stealth taxes start hitting the BTL market. I recently saw a large page advert in a supplement from one of the banks offering a 10% interest rate return on cash savings accounts of 25K+, a risk free investment.
  14. Hi, I think you give him too much credit. I think he is just a clumsy, scruffy oaf who has equally screwed members across the board with his incompetencies. If we had nice hospitals, schools, road and trains you could say 'hey! At least we have something to show". He wasn't even an economist or proved himself him business before he put his size 10's in it. He is a lawyer-turned-career politician (and wasn't much of a sucess in law either). He WILL be exposed for the charlatan he is, straight out of the Enron school of accountancy.
  15. Hi, Humm, again, I think that is the figure that is often touted by British politicians and the papers about the fifth largest economy in the world is misconstrued. That is not actual wealth. GDP per head is the true indicator of wealth and on that context, france is far wealthier than Britain (6th compared to 26th) and countries such as Norway, The Arab emirates and Monaco are top of the list. In GDP terms, everyone could be running around like headless chickens, breaking even at the end of the month with not much left and huge debts and that would appear to be a bigger economy in absolute terms of monetary value. Of course it isn't. China is the world's fourth largest economy, does anyone image that every Chinese person is swaffing champagne and swan Canap├ęs and driving round in Bentley's, spending it like Beckham? No, of course not. Daily mail type, anti-euro jingoism. On the other hand, it's a little unfair to make the tourism comparsion with France and the UK, I believe that it has often come out as the No.1 foreign holiday destination worldwide on several years, half of it also lies in the med, about the most popular tourist aim for many europeans during the summer. It is still hard to imagine how expensive this place must seem to some tourists - we had some Canadians over for business recently and for the first few weeks they were literally drawing breath at some of the costs being runup at the tills for everyday things.
  16. Hi, Why not? the BNP shook up the French elections a few years back although people did turn up for the second round vote when it looked like Le Penn would actually get in. Immigration? That is a double edged sword. Britain is a rapidly ageing nation compared to India, China and Brazil. that could be a problem. Agreed though that it is one of nulabs's policies to constrain wages and people's ability to participate in the housing market. if that was you own particular flavour of vote and it seemed it might cut into the political vacum, go for it, it's positive action at the very least but wouldn't be my cup of tea.
  17. Hi, Read the post again - particularly the part that says "they will not get into power" and "if you at least want to make your voice heard". Otherwise you can just winge silently to yourself which is just as ineffective. Let's face it, market forces are the only thing that will effectively sort it out . Also do read my posts lasts year on the runup to the sipps turn around where there was quite active boycotting by the lib dems, some tories and a few rebel labour MP's in the commons which was quite fundemental in helping Tony and Gordy change tack. They were facing a very possible defeat in getting it passed through both the commons and lords. And it was not for them wanting to push it through, it really was a last minute decision reversal following the embarrasment of earlier defeats and mariginal policy issue votes during the year. Sipps had a strong possibility of a large majority defeat.
  18. Hi, I have followed closely the various parties commentaries on the housing situation. This is my summation ; Labour - house prices will not and cannot fall because we have stopped the boom and bust cycle. (well, they lost control of the housing market about 5 years ago and by all meanings of the word, there was a hyperinflationary boom in property values fuelled by money supply expansion). They cannot allow prices to fall markedly or they will lose the feel-good factor voters and those heavily indebted, who will fall into neg equity if prices fall in line with wage growth, the "official" inflation figure the ONS have butchered together and the general economic performance of the economy. Through the BoE, their stated aim is infact to limit wage growth within the economy so as not to match living costs such as house prices and house price taxes. Hence shared equity schemes and public sector mortgage subsidy used to maintain the current valuations. Blair and Brown have devasted the economic horizon for a generation under this policy. They should be both hung from lamposts in trafalger square for treason to the British people (I don't think that's controversial). The Tory party are ackowledging the issues more readily and seriously but so far for political expediency. They still take the wider labour issue that prices must be maintained and shared equity schemes are the way forward. They have made no electorial commitment to FTB or young-faimly tax breaks, relaxed planning regulations, etc., If the issue hots up they could conceivably become more proactive and forthcoming in real policy measures. The LibDems are the only party that both outwardly acknowledge the problem and are making manifesto for radical reforms, including using terms like "overpriced" and "unsustainable" in relation to the UK market. If you really want to make a political stance, rallying behind the LibDems is your only decent political route. They will not win the election but with weak Tory support and failing Labour support, the next election could easily be hung at the next polling day with a strong LibDem surge from their current level of support and seats. In which case there can be one of two options ; either a collation government with LibDems exerting influence over the UK's current, catastophic housing-market breakdown or one of the other two adopting similar policy reactions nearer to the election to win voters. Voting for one of the other mariginal, crank parties who have policy on the housing issue like the green party or socialist party will just be a wasted vote. Seriously, if you really want to get political and business reaction to the current crises, you need to start canvasing LibDem in local and national elections. Boomer
  19. Hi, For jesus sake, most of the country is not built on, there are far trickier things in this life that have been accomplished (monkey's in space, the human genome, the Northen Ireland peace accord, etc). If you are a younger generation, YOU! YES YOU! Are being used as a pawn to prop up nulab votes and the pensions fiasco. If you are too apathetic to care about that, you need to get off your **** today and make your voice heard!
  20. Hi, Well, obviously, in an era of neuro-brain surgery, missons-to-mars, genome engineering and the like, if there was a political will amongst the government, banks and town planners, decent affordable housing would be a formality. In reality, high house prices are a nice vote winner for the older, property owner generations and a nice way out of for some (via BTL) of the government induced pensions fiasco. Artificially high house prices are a deliberate political tool of manipulation and convenience for the current administration, it is a tacit policy. I am surprised that many younger generations are not pee'd off with it. Look through history and around the world, political shenanegans within land rights and property can be found the width and breadth of this planet, this lot are no different, just better at inducing mass hypnosis amongst the population. Maybe the solution would be for younger generations to club together and nonchalantly buy a patch of green belt land and then BANG! Build a whole flippin village on it like those gypsies on the Tele last night. That Gypsiy town is so big now that the cost of Army, police and Bailfs required to evict them is prohibitive, so they are saying put. TTRTR is probably viewing some BTL investments there now! Boomer
  21. Hi, Agreed. There is always a spring bounce, transactions and probably some specific regional locations have strengthened a bit (even despite some real falls in other regions, it's just too patchy at the moment to call it the long expected, big fall. In particular, I think this is the time to be looking backward every quarter at the land registry. It could be prices are easing more markedly and in generally and hence why transactions could be increasing, that would show up around May/June but the bottom line is that this is about the most robust period of the year, traditionally for home sales. If there was even a modest easing, in retrospect later in the year, as we look back, that would be a significant movement. We are not there yet or at least to early to call yet. I would also expect a certain number of BTL investors to test the market top with sales or purchases at this period of the year - cycle. One thing is for sure, the economy is on a knife edge with debt and sterling, it would not take much of an outward shock at the moment for the house-of-cards market to implode. The UK housing market is sailing as about as close to the wind as it is possible and Gordy has already made a commitment to a massive issue of government debt issues later in the year to cover his own debt-ridden derriere at a time that the BoJ, ECB and Fed are coordinating policy to tighten up and will continue to raise rates. I can't really see how Gordy will be able to avoid raising rates in these circumstances, later in the year, to make the gilt sales as attractive to international investors as other nations offering higher returns. Yep, Gordy is really riding his luck at the moment, how much longer?
  22. Hi, Might be good to pin it so it can get digested slowly instead of drifting down the stack. The OECD usually come up with some pretty good research, whichever side of the fence they are coming down on here. Boomer
  23. Hi, If you can gain subscription assess to research consultancy group gavecal (www.gavekal.com/), checkout their current analysis of funds and central bank intervention, in particular the seemingly concerted and orchestrated activities now in the markets by the Fed, BoJ and ECB to clamp down on asset price speculation AND ... fears over increasing house prices in the west. Their work seems to point to a covert clamp down on credit and liquidity by those central banks over the past year with plenty more to come. Boomer
  24. Hi, Dubai exile is definitely the PG-London_Landlady. Same grammer syntax and train of thought. Roll on the the rambling, conjecture threads then.
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