Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

boom_and_bust

Members
  • Posts

    494
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by boom_and_bust

  1. Hi, I really don't know why this debate gets dredged up continually. NuLabour/Grodon Brown do not want affordable housing in the short-to-medium term. It is just a smoke screen to talk about affordable housing schemes, greedy developers, problems with planning, etc., etc., Why continually waste time on incorrect debates. Gordon Brown stumbled, several years ago, on a macro-economic policy of demand management based on demand management of housing and encoragement of Mortage equity loaning and borrowing by private citizens to spend through recession and since went on to use it as a method of tax raising. The fact that there are a fair number of Labour MP's who are also in on the BTL scheme was a further bolster. When will a real economy come to take over the batton from housing-MeW and public spending is not so clear, Gordy and NuLab seem so locked into the policy that a plan 'B' doesn't appear to be on the table, bad timing as well that the projected real economic upswing coincided with massive hikes in Oil. Bad timing as well that Gordy cost the nation's reserves about 6 billion pounds with the decision to sell off the Gold a few years back. Still, let's not get distracted with the spin arguments about problems implementing these affordable housing initiatives because that is all it is, there is no will there by Gordon-NuLabour as long as they continue to make unsustainable rises in house prices a central plank of economic and political policy. Boomer
  2. A colleague, who is an accoutant specialising in insolvency and whom I have little reason to disbelieve, has assured me that a large number of home owners or owner occupiers running up credit card and personal loans, unsecured debt, can quite feasibly walk away from the debt with a token payment plan (perhaps 5% of the debt over a ten or twenty year repayment period). Nice! That was legislation from Gordy, thank you very much.
  3. 1. Gordon Brown 2. Gordon Brown 3. Gordon Brown 4. Gordon Brown 5. Gordon Brown 6. Gordon Brown 7. Gordon Brown 8. Gordon Brown 9. Gordon Brown 10. Tony Blair
  4. Hi, Isn't that one of prescot's affordable housing scheme developments? Yes, I would go for it. Renting is dead money, property always goes up, houses like that will cost a million pounds ten years from now, you have to be on the ladder or you're doomed.
  5. Hi, Favelas! Just like Rio, Sao Paulo and Buenas Aires, except British favelas are legal, with planning permision (downside ; £150K price tag). Now, if I can just squeeze the deposit onto my credit cards..... I'd be a fool not to!
  6. I'll tell you what next, HP ckin' sauce!!! Brown sauce, Ketchup, Worcestershire Sauce, pickles, the whole lot! A central plank of our society and culture, from Victorian times to Carry on films to your traditional Greasy spoon cafe and fried breakfasts. After nearly a century, they've had their chips and are packing off to the Holland. Holland!! I don't know if the Dutch even like Brown sauce! boomer http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england...nds/4756859.stm
  7. Hi, Edit ; "we are only talking about a 0.25% or 2.0% - but up, not down" .... if the Uk falls in line with the rest of the world and admits the inflation figure is incorrect and the surging M4 money supply over the past year is coming to bite us hard on the ass in 2007/2008 if they don't act now (like other nations have, faced with the same problem).
  8. Hi, Know one thing. This is no economic accident, it is not an unexpected event that the brave government is trying to tackle. It is a central policy of the NuLabour and Gordon Brown. It has been amply covered by economic pundits and academics and NuLabor themselves. This is the 'new paradigm', the 'stability locked-in' approach to macro-economic policy that Gordon Brown always goes on about, controlling demand consumption by making houses an attractive investment compared to saving (like pensions etc.,) and is a tool of demand management. If you don't like it, you shouldn't have voted Labour. Anything other kind of interpretation you make is false and a waste of your time. This is a deliberate political approach to economics, please do read some of the articles I have posted before, including quotes from Gordy himself. Will it work? Who knows? It is unchartered territory, an experiment. The last time any nation saw such debts and overvaluation of real estate was Japan (economic slump for a decade) or 1929 Wall Street America (the Great Depression). It really is though unknown territory going forward so that is not to imply a similar result. The long and short of it : LABOUR ARE HAPPY TO SEE HOUSE PRICES DISAPEAR INTO THE HORIZON USING TAX PAYERS MONEY AND ENCOURAGING DEBT AND UNSUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION FOR AS LONG AS THEY CAN HOLD POWER. Like any good party, you may have a hangover when you wake up the next day. I have followed NuLabour economic policy closely and seen nothing to show me what their next step is. It is totally about private debt fuelling spending, house prices and public spending. There is no plan 'B' I can find.
  9. Hi, Nice one. That was also during the period of one of the world's largest economic booms in the last century so it is a little tentative. Montreal are still paying for the 1976 olympics. Seoul has also cost the Koreans significantly for the future with their olympics adventure. Greece has gone on record to say that signifciant debts were run up, going forward for future, during the euro footy chamionship. I really hope the debt level's experienced by other olympian nations is not suffered by London ........... there isn't any spare fuel in the tank as things stand. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3649268.stm Greek debt spirals after Olympics http://www.creativeresistance.ca/awareness...ames-jill-m.htm A History of the Cost of Hosting the Olympic Games BARCELONA 1992 Budget: $7.5 billion (gov稚 & private) Debt: $20 million (abcnews.com) The cost of the games was an economic drain that deepened a downward economic spiral which took Spain more than four years from which to recover. SYDNEY 2000 Quotes from the Auditor General of New South Wales Report on Sydney (2000) Olympics: Games that were billed as self-financing by the politicians were ranked as a $2.3-billion loss. So there you have it. Nearly every nation hosting the Olympics has suffered severe debts. What do you think of that?
  10. Hi, Immigration is a distraction. This is an Island. It is much easier to bar entry to people from the borders if this is the wish. It obviously is not. How does it happen then? G O V E R N M E N T. Now, that is where you should be addressing issues. Tony Blair was elected the prime minster. I think that was a disaster but nonetheless, he was elected. Gordon Brown was not. Gordon Brown would likely have lost the election for Labour. Now this destructor of British society is trying to grapple power like this is a banana republic. The man will ruin this country. If you are looking to blame anyone, if you are looking for the root cause of record bankruptcies, home repocessions, trade defecits, budget defecits, economic recklessness, closing hospitals, 4m people on incapacity (unemployment) benefit, the destruction of younger, British generations, faimly life and afforadable housing, the destruction of private and public pensions, address your issues to Mr Brown. Don't take the easy option and blame a few immigrants coming in.
  11. Hi, That is very socially conscious and caring of you TIME_TO_RAISE_THE RENTS. I bet would be licking your lips at the thought of getting hold of some disabled and mentally impaired people, maybe you could get them to give you power of attorney over their benefit-giro books? Like candy from a baby, luverly-jubberly!
  12. Hi, Yes, and the other thing about the IPODS VI-mentalist soundbite is that actually, if you cut back a bit, you can buy a generic brand USB MP3 player capable of holding several hundred tunes for about 39.99 quids. I guess that is what most people do anyway if you look on the trains and buses. You see many more people using argos or maplin mp3 players than apple IPODS. 39.99 quids purchase every couple of years is not going to limit people's ability to buy homes unless said homes are extravagantly overvalued. So it guess it must be binge drinking or Easy jet flights every weekend or Burberry Jackets or eating Pizza Hut every night or something like that as the cause of unaffordability, nothing of course to do whatsoever with a huge property bubble. Boomer
  13. Hi, Bar a recession, inflation a year or two out looks to have taken a solid hold, however much the ODM try to fudge the figures. M4 broad money supply aggregates jumped 1% in march alone (!!!). Since broad money aggregates generally track proportional valuations of GDP and since we probably are not really heading for growth of 10+% this year and since, finally, there is a fairly consistent (both historically and internationally) relationship between the growth of the money supply and growth of inflation a year or two out, it would appear the inflation bug has taken a firm seize on the 'miracle' economy. The ECB has all along chose to clamp down early on the growth of inflation, in this way, over the past couple of years. The FeD also have become spooked, choosing to make rapid, big increases in interest rates and also choosing to no longer update the broad money supply figures to the markets (they were growing at similarly, alarming rate). Infact, most of the other major economies around the world have chosen to act early and try to control inflation before it spirals. Personal bankruptcies are at record highs, home repocessions are rising exponentially and approaching levels last seen during the last crash and yet ........... house prices are rising. Does all this seem like UK plc housing market is healthy and sustainable to you? Boomer
  14. Hi, And another thing ....... I have read at various times over the past decade, in my local press, stories of people being caught on CCTV footage collecting pigeons late at night. It is about a decade that the Chicken Stores have emerged. Makes you think. Consumption of pigeon-meat would be a sure sign of degentrification in my book. Boomer
  15. Hi, Here is a general commentary on the last release of the BoE monthly and annual figures last month in the Telegraph : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../20/ixcity.html The official figures are compiled by the Bank of England itself. If you go to ; www.bankofengland.co.uk/ and follow the statistics link, you can download spreadsheet figures and graphs in a variety of formats. Gordon 'miracle' Brown hijacked a partial monetary-inflation targeting policy from the Conservative think tanks in the early ninetees but didn't digest the whole policy document, concentrating on his 'doctored' RPI headline figures and the narrow money supply measure M0. This was only a partial interpretation of the approach. Miracle my ****. It is a good old fashioned expansion of the money supply and public spending, no miracle at all, no new approaches to economic stability whatsoever. Boomer
  16. Hi, Unfortunatley, under the arrangements of Voluntary Insolvency argreements, if it perfectly feasible for people to run up massive unsecured debts on loans and credit cards, walk away from it AND keep their home. The FSA pick up the short fall. YOU - theTAXPAYER - are subsidising Gordon Brown's miracle economy.
  17. Hi, There is also pretty irrefutable evidence that large, above trend increases in the broad money supply measures lead to increased inflation within a two year time scale. Hence why the ECB has been more stringent in raising rates more quickly and more sharply than the UK. The treaury and the BoE dismiss the link between broad money supply and longer term inflation. The ECB and FED do not. UK M4 money aggregates are pretty much out of control. We shall see. Boomer
  18. Hi, I think I have a rather old fashioned view of wealth. MeW is a loan. It is not at all the same as interest on savings, dividends on shares or bond yields, at least on the amateur investor scale. If you take that money out, someone is charging you interest to do it. If you can't make payment commitments to that loaner, they will repocess your home. That gain is also a subjective assessment of the market at a particular point in time that is capable of rising or falling. Other forms of investment wealth require by contract of law that the investment recepient has to pay you a profit (dividend, interest, etc.,). "Real wealth" means that you do not have to worry about creditors on your back, you are free, that you can come and go as you wish in life. MeW is the NuLabour definition of voter bribe, sorry, I mean wealth. Boomer
  19. Hi, Look at jobs adverts in London papers. Jobs offering 12-15K per annum outweigh 70K+ jobs about 50:1, at a guess. Have a look.
  20. Hi, Yes, well, I think the stongest advice came in the second movie of the series. Earth dwellers, priced out of their local planet, invested in a dump the other side of the solar system just to 'get on the ladder'. All those glossy adverts promising a care-free life in executive, new-build appartments on 'terraform avenue' turned out to be a pack of lies - in the end, they were anhialated by a pack of parasitic beings.
  21. Hi, Richer means that you maybe can go and buy a car or a holiday home and PAY for it. It is not really the same thing as gaining access to borrowed money that then you have to worry about paying back and run the risk of losing the roof over your head if you can't. If you sell that property and make more money than you paid + costs, that has made you wealthier. If you are recieving a fine stream of income that over a period of time gives you an alternative source of liquid funds invested, like bank cash, gold, shares, etc., that has made you wealthier. An IOU from Gordon Brown doesn't count unless you can cash it in.
  22. Hi, The move is developing here as well for 35-40 year term mortgages. They were quite the trend at the top of Japanese market 15 years ago. Think about it. The average 1st time buyer is meant to be 34 now and getting older. 90% of property is meant to be unafordbale to FTB's. And just last week the one of the mortgage lenders published a report on the large increase in montly mortgage payments that second time buyers find themselves facing to move up the 'ladder'. So if inflation (wages) is now low in the wonderful new paradigm but house prices will "always" rise more than inflation, if the average buyer will be approaching middle age to struggle onto the lowest rung of the ladder and that small proportion will then face sharp increases in costs to ever move up, how viable is the 'ladder'. How much lower will the birth rate plumit and how much more money will be sucked out of the wider economy in years to come? How many jobs will be available for those 70-75 year olds when they come towards the end of their mortgage periods? Will they ever reach the end of their mortgage period if the next rung up probably requires another 35-40 year mortgage? However emotional you can become sucked into the current housing pyramid, the sums just don't add up. It's like the 1970's all over again, New Labour isn't working. Incidentally, I remember reading somewhere that the Irish became one of the largest foreign BTL investor groups into the UK when they entered the Euro and interest rates halved over night for them.
  23. Hi, Japan, 1990's, 50-85% falls in prices nationally with interest rates near 0%. It all started with an explosion in credit and broad money supply expansion, in a similar way to the way the UK is behaving at the moment, with similar levels of overvaluation and income multiples to the UK in 2006. When it did pop, not even near 0% interest rates would revive commercial and resedential property prices again for nearly a decade. Of course, we probably would not see that kind of scenario here, Britain has historically had an inflationary bias, just to say, it is a funny old game. Boomer
  24. Hi, Encouraging sellers greed has been a central economic policy of Gordon Brown. It has been mentioned recently in several articles as to the loose, inflationary policy injecting liquidity into the uk market - a coordinated and deliberate Keynesian style policy both in the UK and US - using rising house prices as a channel or tool of government economic policy, particularly through Mortgage Equity Release and associated credit channels, to attempt to control the business cycle. In the US it was pretty much a reaction to 9/11 to ensure a slowing economy was not plunged into recession. In the UK, at a time when the economy - and more particularly the UK housing market - was headed towards recession - the same policy was hijacked for economic demand management and political vote-winning. At the same time, an interesting debate has emerged within the world economic policy circles with the Anglo-Saxon economies on the one side and an alternative approach, pursued in similar methods by the EU central bank in reigning in inflation and the Bank of Japan in emerging from a decade long-economic depression. The current policy of inflation targeting was first adopted in New Zealand over a decade ago and copied by the uk, adopted with vigour by the (then) shadow chancellor, Gordon Brown. Central to inflation targeting was the abandonment of most money supply targets for inflation (as used during the eightees with later-to-be-seen, undesirable side effects) except for the narrow measure M0, that excludes most credit, bank loaning etc., directly. That has been (and still is) dismissed as not completely relevent or reliable under current NuLab economic policy. That is the area of debate. The current housing boom has been propped up in the past few years - at precisley the point it was heading for negative figures - by perhaps the large increases in broad money supply measures, encourgement infact by the Treasury to expand bank loaning and consumer credit to spend out of the recession and also avoid the credit contractions that, in normal circumstances of the business cycle, would have caused crash as lenders retreated. Infact, broad money is rapidly expanding at this time due to the 'easy' credit policy, encouragement and support of the Treasury, in addition to it's own, continued spending. The twin trade and budget defecits, as well as the historicallly unprecendeted levels of priavtely held debt are the side effects of avoiding sharper slow downs in growth (or recession) and falls in house prices. More than any other advanced economy, house prices are central to UK economic performance. The fact that broad money supply has some relationship to general inflation and asset (house) prices is neither here nor there as it is no longer considered in economic policy making in the UK. Indeed, Mr King at the BoE even said a while back that "there is little a central bank can do to control asset prices". As long as the headling inflation figure (if we believe that to be correct and accurate) is maintianed and the narrow measure of money supply is kept in check, stability will ensure employment is low and growth on track. Or is it? An interesting article a few months back in the economist (now online) by Otmar Issing, chief economist of the European Central Bank, says that this is a misleading route, that policy should not be set by broad money moevements but that they have to be considered within a general inflation targeting policy. Otmar Issing has helped steer EU central banking policy in this manner, despite critisms by the anglo-saxon economies that it is growth limiting and irrelevant. His rebuff is that the relationship exists, as believed by US and UK monetarists in the 1980's, just that it is not the centre of policy. There was infact an open debate between the FeD and ECB ; The Issing link Mar 23rd 2006 | FRANKFURT From The Economist print edition Money still makes the world go around. For some policymakers, anyway http://economist.com/finance/displayStory....tory_id=5662647 Otmar Issing has some credibility in being a prominent consultant to the Bank of Japan in helping Japan emerge from a decade long slump just recently with his economic prescriptions, many of those problems originating themselves from rapid credit and monetary expansions and contractions. The question is ; can Gordon keep pumping the continued credit and liquidity - and increasing broad money aggregates - forever before real economic growth takes over, or will it end in a Japanese-style credit psunami or a repeat of Britain in 1976? In addition to Mr Issing, Professor Tim Congdon CBE - an original architect of the current inflation-targeting monetary policy formulated by the Treasury in 1992 onwards and then adopted by Gordon Brown while in opposition - has waded into the debate on a similar tangent, highly relevantly in this article when discussing the increases in broad money supply and house price booms, in particular relevence to the Japanese experience and the current UK experiment. Property and Share Price Booms are Caused by Loose Monetary Policy 04 September 2005 Bank of England should be cautious reducing interest rates when the money supply is expanding rapidly http://www.iea.org.uk/record.jsp?type=release&ID=94 by Professor Tim Congdon CBE (a member of the Treasury Panel of Independent Forecasters - the so-called ‘wise men’ - who advised the Chancellor on economic policy between 1992 and 1997). Further background on the Japanese experience is well explained in money supply terms here also ; Explaining Japan's Recession by Benjamin Powell http://www.mises.org/story/1099 Hummm......"miracle economies"....."no more boom and bust". Who is right? It is an interesting debate to watch and follow over the coming year. Boomer
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.