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boom_and_bust

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Everything posted by boom_and_bust

  1. Hi, What is it with the standard of media reporting we have at the moment? I mean, this article, read it, please. It says nothing really, "Fears about the economy in recent months have not been realised, and pessimism has evaporated, according to the country's biggest building society.......the Nationwide index of consumer confidence rose sharply in July to 101 from 95" What is this index of consumer confidence? Is it indepenently conducted and reported? The article seems to contradict iself several times later on. I especially like the bit ; "Despite rising unemployment, a recession in manufacturing, a malaise on the high street and the slowing property market," and ; "The CBI said its survey showed that underlying sales in the retail sector were the worst on record in July," and ; "The linkage (of the survey) is rather episodic - sometimes it tells you something about spending, sometimes it doesn't." The reporter seems to make no attempt to analyse, even very quickly, anything very much, either on the optimistic or the pessimistic side. And this is supposed to be a 'quality' paper. I shudder to think how the Daily Sport or the Current Bun are reporting it. It is like a buttelin of meanigless quotes. It is like those spoof stories in the viz. Thank god for HPC, that's what I say.
  2. Hi, But getting back to the guy's original question, WHERE and WHAT is this 1trillion debt. If there is a figure, it must have been added together from some sources, what are those sources? And if it is in the media, I would wager it is probably understated. I would like to ask that guy who posted on earlier in the afternoon about booming wealthy British houses with manicured lawns and ricket greens and duck ponds, if I borrow a trillion squids, does that make me a trillion-hier? Or a guy with a trillion-squids debt that is costing squids of interest everyday? What is this money? Has gordy at No.11 done a crafty, or have the high street banks done crafty? Maybe that Gordy or the geezer at Capital economics or Kirsty or Beenie can illuminate. 'Cos I'll be a monkey's uncle if I have a clue. The truth is out there! Boomer
  3. Hi, Remember aout 18-24 months ago alot of EA's, VI's, BoE, etc., were saying how the Australian and Dutch property experiences showed how a softlanding was the outcome of all this. I haven't seen or heard anything more about these countries' experiences in the media in the recent past. What's happened since, then? I know they underwent big real estate price booms a bit earlier than the UK and it appeared for a while like it all fizzled out and just stagnated for a while in a softlanding. But I think all that I have gleamed from the media of late, tucked away in small articles next to advertisments for 'wonder slippers' and 'stairway wheelchair lifts' , somewhere near the back of the business section, is that Australia may well be in a crash, with 10% falls in less than a year in the main cities, and holland feeling month-on-month small declines with the Dutch Chancellor publically expressing regret that the housing market was ever allowed to spiral and fearing the present future social and economic problems it is causing the Dutch economy. That is about maybe three or four paragraphs in the last twelve months compared to many artciles, with color charts and professional analysis in the twelve previous. So, does anyone have regular contact or analysis with these naition's markets. Can we discern anything from this for our future course?
  4. The thing about Kirsty whatever-her-name-is that really makes me dispair is that I once read an article in a sunday paper, maybe is was about year and a half ago, where she was trying to pursuade young people getting on the ladder to raise funds however they could to get on the ladder, before you are priced out into a dickension-workhouse future of abject misery and poverty, instead of a dickension-workhouse future of abject misery and poverty in the 300K s**t hole of a mortgaged box on the 50th floor of an ex-authority block you bought back in 2005. Sell grandma's jewels, donate blood to private bloodbanks, volunteer your body to drug research institutes, work the streets in your evenings off, work three jobs, anything, everything. She then told her own heartwarming story of how, as a 19yr old girl working in London all those year's ago, it was exactly the same, she couldn't afford to move out of her faimly home in Kensington Mews (F**** Hell!!!!!!! You can't even get a garage there under a million squids in that area, not even back then) and how she had to struggle to buy a modest two bedroom appartment in Clapham, which was up and coming. Granny lent her a 50% deposit so her job would cover the mortgage - that was oh, in 1993 as I remember in the article, oh yeah, just around the time of the last crash-trough as I remember. Convenient huh? So that was Kirsty's warming little story that propelled her into the world of property professionalism. She really had to struggle some, huh? What are all those FTB's earning average money who have absolutely no chance of buying a delapidated craphole in those areas of London moaning about? All those nurses, firemen, teachers, shop workers, restaurant workers, etc., moaning about. Kirsty had to struggle but she just got on with it! So there! Kirsty really is a person of astounding sensitivity and tact IMHO.
  5. Hi, After having attended one of those property investment syndicat this weekend to give my Maiden Aunt moral support, and stop her blowing money on ludicrous investments, it really staggers belief the nonense - in my opinion - that can be heard, even to the extent of things like 'Ah, yes, well, you may take a short term loss for covering mortgage debts with rents at the mo, but interests rates will fall anyway soon and property will always double in value every five years in todays world' Grrrrr, where is my grandad's bayonnet.... My big concern in the rubbish that is being pitched in this way to the uwary (or at least those who did not experience the mucky end of the 80's or 90's property crashes) is that the fact that the property market is sooo heavily indebted within the buy-to-let-market compared to previous crashes, moreorless a pure investment stratergy for that section of the market, so that ; A continuing, rising market makes no sense in the absence of an even greater economic boom coming NOW. This doesn't seem so, the economy is faltering, oil is through the roof, consumer debt showing BIG strain levels now, wages are way, way below mortgage multiples, and so on. No fundamentals there. A country has do things, make things, spend less than in earns in the long run. Buying and selling houses to eachother is not a good basis for an entire economy. A stagnant, but not falling market? Well that is no good as an investment, who is going to sit on a stagnant asset for the next ten years (probably a net loss taking into account property or landlording charges). A falling market? Not even considered, instantly dismmissed. Well, what isn't mentioned is that, for the big players in the property market, a falling market is actually an opportunity to make money. If the market stagnates and a number of the big investment property owners go to offload before eachother, they gain by selling high and buying back low. Oh yes, by transfering debt leverage onto some unwary punter, probably a young couple buying their first home, new to the whole british property market, or an elderly lady trying to save her pension. So my argument to these slick gentleme n at their very nice conference centre was why not go for this stratergy? Be the first in! Build up the protfolio, dump onto the market first, buy back 25% lower. So anyway my question wasn't entertained. (Incidentally, the idea is anecdotal - a guy down our street in 1989 did just that with 15 local properties and resold on again in the late nineties. He moved away somewhere sunny after that). Beware of false prophets offering easy money!
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