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boom_and_bust

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Everything posted by boom_and_bust

  1. Hi, Doesn't sound impossible, guess we just have to see. I do think if it were to move that rapidly in the current market, with about the highest ever number of amateur investors in the market in history, that kind of dash for the door would cause a far bigger, far quicker fall in the market then anyone has so far predicted. I mean, you would be talking about something crazy like maybe 50% in a couple of years. I can't really see that happening. But again, who knows? Maybe you are right. We just have to see. But are you trying to convince other people as much as trying to convince yourself? This is something that anyone who has talked about HPC over the past year or two has found themself on the receiving end of. The figures have come along since to support the idea, you need to find a bit more ground evidence, maybe. It could be though, like HPC, time will prove you right or wrong. And there is nothing wrong with being wrong now and again. None of us are right all the time. We learn by making mistakes, that's why a pencil has an eraser! It's all natural and part of being human. I also remember how people went to ground during the last crash, I remember the stories of 40 year old men, even families, moving back in with their parents for a year or two, taking back rooms off friends, renting caravans, river boats. Some wishing to just avoid the extra costs of outwardly renting like paying the council tax or just to temporarily stay out of sight of the taxman. It was amazing to see the stories of how people can camp down and live a bare necessity lifestyle for a year or two, people who were holding down good jobs, just to weather the storm for a while and clear debts, save, etc., You may be underestimating how internally tough people can become when times get harder or circumstances change for a while. Boomer
  2. Hi, And another nice christmas present for Gordon's rigged CPI figures after the new year. Should present also an unwelcome new year hangover for BoE in it's quest to limit inflation growth - it's supposed prinicipal goal. As we know, Gordon rigged the CPI along time ago to exclude anything inflationary, particularly quick to jetison the component of HPI inflation from the figures. He has become increasingly biased toward weighting the index with goods imported from low-cost countries, notably China, goods that infact have been deflating in price for a decade, offsetting the rises in other areas of the CPI. So it is interesting to now see this week that the US business media are seemingly convinced that U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow has reached agreement behind the scenes with China for a 7.5% appreciation of the Yuan after christmas and a similar agreement to be completed during next year with India. Another potential pressure valve on inflation and interest rates for BoE over the coming year as import costs increase. Boomer
  3. Hi, OK, why did they lie last time. All the way through the last crash. Trotting off MoM 05-1% rises while people were in negative equity and getting repocessed. ARE you denying that they did this last time? If so, go read the press from then. Most large libraries in any big city in the UK keep old newspaper editions on fiche. You have some of the headlines posted here. That is fact, not hot air. Are you denying that they lied? That it is their business to sell you loans, the bigger the loan, the better the business. Wow! They say there is one born every minute. Boomer
  4. Hi, If you have strong grounds to believe that a landlord, BTL, flipper, etc, is in someway avoiding tax , you are quite at liberty to annonmously report this to the inland revenue directly, either online or by telephone. Little tip, if you really want to ensure your confidentially, go to an internet cafe or such like and post full details and dates ; email address is : [email protected] online link, also describing the things HMIR need to pursue a conviction; http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/menus/contactus.shtml
  5. Hi, Well, don't go telling Prescott but it appears that natural market forces have reached a solution to the current housing bubble. Yes! Affordable, urban living in London's swish SW6 postal area of fulham. For just £25K, you can become the owner of your very own house. Or I am not sure if it is a studio appartment. Anyway, the agents have it listed as a "studio house". It has running water, electricity, everything you could want for a chic, cafe-metro lifestyle! http://www.findaproperty.co.uk/agent.aspx?...prop&pid=311846 (Or you can just watch the current bubble continue to implode ........) Boomer
  6. Hi, Yes, in theory, the government would like to stabalise the economy but they only have so much power. Do a google search on George Soros and the numerous, previous UK house price crashes, stock market crashes, financial scandals, union militiancies, and so on, they didn't want those to happen either. They cannot in reality control things, merely try to influence. And I stress, "try". Economic control has been attempted before - it was called communism - it didn't work and infact caused relative poverty and breakdown of business and industry. That is what can happen if a government tries to hard to control economic events, particulalry in a globalised, open-trade economy like the UK. Market forces at work. The OECD places UK property overvaluations at around 32%. To be honest, if market forces really let rip, I think falls would need to be larger than that to restore the economy to equilibrium and increase our international competitiveness. It might also improve non-economically measurable things like quality of life, community, faimly life etc., Remember also that his mentalist hyper-inflationary approach to economics put us in this awkard position. He has messed up and is frantically trying to plug the leaks now. There are other nations around the world who took more reasoned approaches and are doing well, they didn't need to ruin the nations pensions, run HPI at 20% per annum, run up huge trade and fiscal defecits, and so on. If he has a problem to "stabalise", it is a mess of his own making. Embrace the power of markets then! It is a wonderful thing! The alternative is communism. Boomer
  7. Hi, Ahhh, that'll be nice, unbiased BBC reporting again. No doubt under the strict supervision of Gordon Brown's brother who works there. So, the EU is a very large economic area, very much like the states. So just like the states, you can have areas that are booming and areas that are not, just like how London can be running redhot sometimes while the Shetland Islands may not be. Same thing on a bigger scale. The ECB has wanted to raise rates for a long time, some member states are dangerously overheating i.e., spain, greece, ireland, and others are seeing large inflows of potentially inflationary money i.e., most of the eastern european states, while others have had some growth issues, i.e., Germany, France, Italy. The ECB had stated that they would wait until they felt the sluggish economies had sufficient momentum to sustain increases in rates. It was all openly stated for nearly two years now but as it will now put pressure on sterling and as that does not suit Gordon and his brother at the BBC, we get this very biased slant on it all. Maybe it is bad, we have to see, but the ECB have thought long and hard about it and communicated it's reasoning well in advance - a bit of balance by the Blair Broadcasting Corporation would be nice. We all know from previous BoE minutes that some voting members leaked out private feelings of disbelief at the last rate cut here. I do remember posting here, myself, at the time that the pressure for the next change will be back upwards. How much longer can Gordon live in isolation to the rest of the world? Boomer
  8. Hi, Ahhh, that'll be the Christmas runup then, the traditionally strongest retail business period of the year, when some retailers can make a third or more of the annual revenue. I am still waitig to find out what the 'miracle' bit of Gordon's new miracle economy is. Boomer
  9. Hi TTRTR, Actually, I would like to apologise for mentioning your name in the 'suckers' category, it is not a nice way really to address people. I don't think your policy is half bad on buying period property in central locations (although I would be REALLY cautious about adding for the next year at least. But hey, if you can root out something others have not noticed, good on you.. It is possible to make returns even at the height of a bubble but that is not 95% of the population doing something else every day 9-5 in another field). I really do feel convinced those without a game plan, jumping in recklessly in the past couple of years, particulalry now, will not just be burned but positively cremated. If I was anymore convinced of it I would pass out. Anyway, you coming to the next pub meet? Boomer
  10. Hi, Oh dear. Can you see it already? 5-10 years down the line, plastered all over the media, old folk marching on Parliment again on another pensions-investment fraud, just like the last few years, just like the mortgage endownments before that. They will probably be joined by some younger crowds as well when the great 'interest only mortgage frauds' will also unwrap. Really, you think people in Britain would have got used to being suckered out of their savings by all this but, oh no! You think they would stop and say "hold on a minute, I'm going to look into this a bit deeper. We seem to get some form of new financial-scam-of-mass destruction popping its head around the corner every few years with someone like 'Henk Potts' (humm, you shouldn't pay attention to a tabloid 'monkey', you need to find out what his 'organ-grinder' is really planning) saying "oh, well, the markets turned, who would have ever predicted blah, blah, blah". Usual crap they trot off when it all goes tits up for some poor joe suckers (no offence PG, TTRTR, L_L, etc.,). You really would think that people would start questioning the latest fever-pitch-financial products and say to themselves "Hold on, these were the same lot a few years ago who took all our pension money" or "Hold on, these were the same lot that said my endownment mortgage would payoff me house and a big wadge of beer tokens on top" or "Hold on, these were the same lot who said my dot.com unit trusts scheme would let me live the high life in a few years time as shares never go down, it's a new economic reality, blah, blah, blah". You would think so, wouldn't you? You would think that someone might think, "Hold on, if everyone is doing it, still, at this late stage of the game, there must be a catch, there must be something they are not telling me. I am going to look into this. I am not going to listen to Henk, he doesn't seem like a proper city whiz-kid anyway blah, blah, blah.". So, unfortunately, I think we will again be watching newsnight in about 3-5 years when lots of people are saying to Jeremy Pacman and Trev McDonut, "we woz robbed, they said it would give me 300% returns and a nice fat pension and we woz fibbed to! We demand government action for this scandal!!" Boomer
  11. Hi, Thought I would flip over to reuters breaking news to see if they had anything there. They didn't, but I thought the sterling breaking news link from a.m. was an interesting read. http://investing.reuters.co.uk/Investing/F...-11_L29520309:1 "I think the market is starting to focus on the U.S. housing market and when it does that it will also turn to the UK housing market as well," said HSBC currency strategist David Bloom. The earlier flat housing market figures from the Nationwide, which caused the YoY to fall back again, was not well received by currency markets. With the current US inflation levels running close to 4.5% and the Fed worrying it is about to runaway and rates need to go up up up, at a time when US house prices are nearly as stretched as ours' but with crash signs evident and openly talked about on the media services, doesn't look too good for the pound over the coming months. And what is the implication of that? Does it mean Gordon has to keep HPI somewhere near 10% every year to avoid the pound getting smashed into the ground? It's a no win situation. I wonder if George Soros is watching sterling again? Boomer
  12. Hi, Humm, why have the Halifax and Nationwide kept rolling off the reports over the past couple of years that 90-95% of British towns and cities are out of the reach of FTB's? They even qualify it by saying "any property, taking the lowest price studio flat available in the area as the basis". They drag the stats out every 3-4 months or so, trawl through the archives, it's all there, it's all good. Soooo, they spend alot of money on those reports, apparently. I'm confused. Can you help me a little here?
  13. Hi, Ah! you got me with that title! I do really like the troll line 'crash has been cancelled'. I keep thinking of TTRTR, London_Landlady, Kirsty and Gordon Brown sitting around a Kremlin style bunker in the soviet republic days, planning the quotas and production levels for the coming year in the housing market. Sitting in big fur coats, swiging vodka. "Da commrades, stagnation, stagnation". House prices to high, economy too low. Just like the fall of communism and the Berlin Wall really. Boomer
  14. Depends if you call stagnation a 15% fall on the national NVM register so far this year, in Rotterdam, the second biggest city in Holland, and an overall negative market indice for the year, as a healthy sign of stagnation. Also, the dutch chancellor said last year in the press that the property market booms of the late nineties had stagnated the wider economy, plunging comsumer spending into a recession and that the Dutch economy would no longer be held ransom by the property market after two years of negative growth, I posted an article about it during the summer if you go through the archives. I remember it was part of a wider analysis of the Dutch economy by AMRO investment bank. Suffice as to say, all is cetainly not well with the Dutch property market. http://www.expatica.com/source/site_articl...C+November+2005
  15. Hi, Often foreign investors and foreign government are the major buyers of sterling gilts. And in order to be competitive with other foreign governments who also issue their own forms of debt onto the international market, to domestic investors in this country also, the government will need to offer a competitive return. Indirectly, you can pretty much factor in an interest rate rise sometime over the coming year given the pound's weakening position in the misdt of such a large issue of debt at a time other nations are increasing their own rates. Boomer
  16. Hi, "Gordon under pressure to cut public spending or raise taxes by IMF and European Central Bank" http://business.telegraph.co.uk/money/main...xfrontcity.html
  17. Hi, Yes! Name and Shame is a great idea. One of the things that gets people staightaway on this forum, that I have experienced, is the commentary of the last crash, people can see for themselves that media and governmet spin, that estate agent groups and mainstream newspaper business pundits do not have a clue about what is going on half the time. When I heard that BoE report over a year ago saying that there was no longer a link in the UK between the economy and the housing market I thought "you Sir, are a buffoon!" FFWD a year or so, the economy slows down and housing comes with it, although more accurately housing slows down and then the economy follows, like the last crash where I believe stretched affordability was the main cause. Things like that need to be noted. Better! When the press turn negative and especially the Tory press turn hostile to Gordon and Tony, it may be much easier to name and shame these clowns with a few choice letters to sympathetic journos. Make it so. Boomer
  18. Hi, My God! The stunning audacity of the man. "OK, I've messed up the economy, I've caused chaos and hyperinflation in the housing market and virtually destroyed the aspirations of the younger generations and private business, destroying many people's pensions whilst in office but look, can you help me out here .......... blah, blah, blah.," And the last few days has seen alot of officialdom talk about a stabalising housing market and inflation. That is your definite sign that inflation is about to rip and the market crash. If you let the housing market spiral into an inflationary frenzy, people will ask more money from employers unless you can subdue them effectively enough. So Gordy's outward policy now will be to subdue the business and individual's capacity to increase pay so YOU can subside property speculaters. Except all these little titibits wouldn't be banded around now unless they felt the game was up. Spin and disinformation is NuLab's speciality, after all. Hah! Glad I got that off my chest. Boomer PS. Webmaster, can you put that yahoo face with 'raising hair' on the smiley icons?
  19. Hi, According to the previous Land Registry figures, the London Borough of Merton saw a -6.9% fall in values during the past year on prices of an average detached house. Whilst the Land Regisrty figures are backward looking and of course the current downturn will last a few years yet, the signs are all too familiar in the boom and bust housing market of britain. During the last big crash, it was again the outlying districts of London that lead the way, sending shockwaves outward in their wake, effectively it is the 'belweather districts' that are the first to lead the price spirals. With market values falling during the last year on several indices, it appears the first signs of sporadic, large falls will start filtering through over the coming year. Early last week, one of the UK's largest home lenders and previously a pillar of over-optimism admitted that price rises had became unsustainable and were likely to see many actual falls over the coming year. This reporter sent an email to the houses of parliment tourism and information desk, demanding Tony and Gordon explain how a policy of hyper-inflation within the economy could be justified to the people of Britain and the damage it is casuing to the economy. No official comment was expressed by either Mr Blair or Mr Brown, suggesting perhaps that these were questions they did not wish to answer? Live, reporting for HPC.co.uk, here at the houses of parliment, Boomer
  20. Hi, I am over at Bishopsgate way tomorrow day. If it doesn't drag on too long, I look forward to telling anyone there at the pub where exactly the 12-18 month-on-the-market properties are, if you want to put a cheeky offer in. Boomer
  21. Hi, I am a new comer to the site and I have definitely never ever, ever posted before. So, you may remember about a week ago, I said how the number of studios and 1 bed appartments on the market in my area (SW15) had seemed to quadruple in a week, looking in the EA windows and checking up in findaproperty.co.uk and rightmove.co.uk? Yep, even more again this week. And particularly down by the hospital and uni, traditional renter land to the students and nurses. Even though I can point you at similar priced properties that have been on the market for 12-18 months and have still not sold (You may remember I did that once upon a time and the EA's removed the property listings from the links the next day). How do they ever think they are going to sell? I am also now seeing the two and three bedders falling below the 150-160K mark, quite unusual for the area over the past few years, around 200K+ was the usual level for a while. Yes, this is alot of money but you are near central London and the area has had massive 'gentrification' over the last twenty years but, there are again similar flats at that pricing that have been on the market for a good twelve months. There is one property (5+ bedrooms) over by the common that I have seen a 'for sale' sign outside for over two years! So yes, I fully believe the nationwide when they announced last week that substantial property price falls may occur in 2006. The market has ceased to function in its present condition. Still, we all know that, we all walk home in the evening seeing the same old properties on the market forever, coming on, going off, price reduction, sold subject to chain, back on again three weeks later. Boomer
  22. Hi, Yes, I am sure that they are ahead of the market. I spent a few weeks recently corresponding with their economics and PR departments asking exactly how they calculate their indices. Exactly how. Methology and where a member of the public might view the figures they compile in making each survey and if they have their indices independently monitored. No, no and no were the responses. I am not saying they lie, I am saying that they only include a small sample figure of approvals (not even sales - if you are sitting in a chain,nothing has sold but they include it in the indice), at most 15-20%. They can vary their methods - and have, halifax during the middle of the year, vary weighting methods, vary seasonal adjustment calculation. Basically, it is in no way impartial, it cannot be rigoursly examined and, well, they sell loans for a living. Draw your own conclusions. Go and write to them yourself, you'll soon find out. So, they will have a very good idea of what is really happening in the whole of their market, not just the select snippets they put together for the media and shareholders. My guess? They pulled out all the stops with upbeat news to rally the market at a busy period of the year to try and kick start things. It fell flat on its face. The economy is labouring, people are broke, no juice left in the engine to pull out of the nose dive. Now they will probably start being realistic about the state of the market so as not to completely lose all credibilty. Boomer
  23. Hi, For pity's sake! Why exactly are you saying 'without a jolt'. Please, please don't reel off that totally false old Estate Agent line about the last crash caused by sudden interest rate rises. OK, are you listening,one last time? THE LAST CRASH WAS ALREADY WELL UNDER WAY BEFORE INTEREST RATES SPIKED. IT WAS FALLING FROM 1989-1992 ALREADY BECAUSE THE MARKET WAS OVER STRETCHED BY AFFORDABILITY. IT FELL FURTHER WHEN RATES SPIKED IN LATE 1992 WHEN THE CHANECELLOR TRIED TO DEFEND THE POUND AGAINST CURRENCY SPECULATORS. PEOPLE WERE ALREADY LOSING LARGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY AND FACING REPOCESSIONS BEFORE THE BIG RATE RISES. It is the usual line discredited VI's use but is infact totally false. And if you want an ISA that gives you negative returns on your investment, listen to this man by all means. Thanks for the advice but don't call us, we'll call you. Hope that helps, Boomer
  24. Hi, Yes, but it wouldn't be accurate. You know, what with the rightmove and FT indices showing falls for over a year, the halifax and the Nationwide (dodgy biased) indices at standstill. And they came out in the press and said their very dodgy indices that aren't open to public or independent scrutiny and only takes at best a 15-20% sample of properties they choose to include will likely see some falls next year. They freakin said that! Even though they have been masking the real falls that agencies have been hiding for a year. Imagine! So, your site can be named thus ; www.themarkethasstalledbuthasreallybeenindenialandfallingforayearanditsgoingtogetalotworse.com I am pretty sure that domain name is not taken. So anyway, what's a nice girl like you doing in a place like this? Boomer
  25. Hi, Hummmm.....you are waiting for the 'pickup'? Why don't you start a webforum called : www.housepricepickup.co.uk Hope that helps, Property Boomer
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