Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

boom_and_bust

Members
  • Posts

    494
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by boom_and_bust

  1. Hi, I'll post again my other currency related thread here. The fact is, the rest of the world is moving in certain directions. That doesn't mean we will, it does mean that a status quo seems difficult to maintain for us, from here. These other nations are worried about inflation - even if there is coverage of falls in some of their real estate markets - they feel the need to make movements. If there is inflation brewing in the world economy, we get affected in someway, eitherway. We don't live in isolation, we are a trading nation, we rely heavily on foreign currency to finance our trade defecits. We have also had a historical, economic link with our cousins in the US. One thing for sure, either way, its difficult to see how we plod along in isolation to the rest of the world without some kind of change coming our way. Unless we see interest rate falls coming our way and then what does that say? That the rest of the world is wrestling inflation while we fear deflation? The United Kingdom of Japan for the next decade? Maybe that is the ten years of stagnation we hear about when wages catchup with property prices, just like Japan a decade ago infact! Either way, the changes are a' blowing in the wind. --------------------------------- Interesting to see where BoE go after xmas. Over the past month we have seen ; 14/12/2005 - US raises rates .25% 08/12/2005 - New Zealand Raises Rates .25% 06/12/2005 - Canada raises rates .25% 01/12/2005 - European Union raises rates .25% 28/11/2005 - Israel raises rates .5% ??/??/2006 - Australia widley expected to raise after christmas It doesn't mean a rise in UK rates is nailed on but alot of other countries are thinking the opposite and worrying about inflation alot more than BoE, even in US, Australia and NZ where house price falls have already been aired across the media. You have to think as well that the UK, like the US, is very dependent on foreign cash inflows to sustain it's trade defecits. And if the recent fall in the doctored headlined inflation rate benefited from a fall in oil prices, a fall in sterling will bring the inflation figure back upwards again on that basis. Less and less scope to cut rates for Gordon, plenty of incentives to raise them. First few months of next year could be very interesting to see what their next step is. Boomer
  2. Talking of laws, you probably know that the UK has about the most lax tenancy laws and protection in the entire EU. The commision have been looking into it for about the last year. Expect some very nice EU style legislation coming our way soon. They have already identified the UK as having one of the lowest standard of housing stocks EU wide. As you may know, I own a property in France and one in Canada and I can certainly say from experience that the quality of much housing stock here is below the standards many would expect around the world. I certainly remember from my trips to Sweden (Gothenborg and Stockolm) that the standard of housing also seemed better. Travel alot to Germany too, looks generally of a better standard there. Around London in particular, I am pretty sure alot of the ageing Victorian housing stock will come under the beady eye of Brussels soon. You better keep a few quid aside young man! I am not a tenant. I own. Own as in no mortgage. There are many posters here who own here as well. That is not so important. Making rude, sweeping statements of the nature 'you lot' doesn't hold in good sted old chap. Take the diplomatic route. Smiles and politeness will get you far in this life. Anyway, rents are pretty high in UK plc. It has been sustainable in London because of sterling's high currency value and attraction to foreign workers (I don't know if you travel much out of London but rents can be quite a bit lower outside of the capital, if that's where you were thinking of there. I'll give you that one, in that case) . So pray that sterling doesn't fall. Property continued it's boom because Labour had an election to win, the media went into spin overdrive with SIPPS mania, lax and fraudulent credit within the economy, low interest rates up until a year ago. You know and see the rest of it. Oh dear. The woods for the trees springs to mind. I could write a book on that one. The biggest impact of this credit binge was the deregulation of the mortgage market and consumer credit markets in the ninetees without a proper system of financial monitoring, reporting and standards in place (FSA's supposed job). That, I am sure, will be viewed as one of key factors in the credit expansion and subsequent retraction, later on. Maybe, we shall see. We shall just have to see. That is assuming that you don't believe we are in crashville now. You have seen the media coverage of the last crash here, you know we were well into it, maybe two years before the media, the EA's and lenders starting stating what was bleedin' obvious - that prices had been falling. And I remember the crash before then as well! Ditto. That is the thing about a bubble. It always, always, takes many people by shock. That is why it is a bubble. Many only notice them when it's too late and it is receding into the distance through the rear-view mirror. We just have to see. Happy xmas, enjoy lapland. Boomer
  3. Hi, Well done! I am glad to see you are making our capital work so wisely. Although? Have you considered this business model in the rental sector? You could earn us even more on our savings!?! Boomer http://www.portowebbo.co.uk/nottinghilltv/...led7rachman.htm
  4. Hi, The guy has gone absolutley bonkers. Whenever governments try to meddle with these kind of incentives, it always distorts the market even further. What the hell is a "socialist" chancellor doing anyway subsidising property speculation? If he's into subsidising ailing markets, why didn't he flash some tax payers money at Rover when it went tits up? He needs to be stopped before we end up with another 'winter of discontent' and a begging bowl thrust in the direction of the IMF again. Dear oh dear! Is he sleeping with property guru or something? Boomer
  5. Hi, Interesting to see where BoE go after xmas. Over the past month we have seen ; 14/12/2005 - US raises rates .25% 08/12/2005 - New Zealand Raises Rates .25% 06/12/2005 - Canada raises rates .25% 01/12/2005 - European Union raises rates .25% 28/11/2005 - Israel raises rates .5% ??/??/2006 - Australia widley expected to raise after christmas It doesn't mean a rise in UK rates is nailed on but alot of other countries are thinking the opposite and worrying about inflation alot more than BoE, even in US, Australia and NZ where house price falls have already been aired across the media. You have to think as well that the UK, like the US, is very dependent on foreign cash inflows to sustain it's trade defecits. And if the recent fall in the doctored headlined inflation rate benefited from a fall in oil prices, a fall in sterling will bring the inflation figure back upwards again on that basis. Less and less scope to cut rates for Gordon, plenty of incentives to raise them. First few months of next year could be very interesting to see what their next step is. Boomer
  6. Hi, My oh my! There is alot of bravado in the air this evening. A couple of weeks ago you seemed like you were going to top yourself with the news about SIPPS and the new landlord business requirements phasing in. Good to see you back and fighting again! Boomer
  7. Hi, Yes, this is a good point. BTL is a very risky investment at this time with many lenders withdrawing from loaning into the sector and an oversupply of BTL providers, many likely to wish to offload over the coming year due to their miscalculation in trying to second Guess the chancellor before any decisions had been reached or laws passed. Classic speculator frenzied behaviour in a bubble market. For greater levels of risk a higher return is required. So, for example, if you were earning that kind of return on blue chip equities or bonds, maybe it could be ok (if a little low). If however one is investing in post-sipps BTL or non-listed shares or companies envloved with deep-sea speclative oil-field surveying, mining on the moon, etc.,one would require a far higher return for the greater level of risk. Boomer
  8. Easily. And I have a bigger willy than you. At this moment I am waving my hand around with my thumb on my nose singing ner-ner-ner-ner-ner! Boomer
  9. Hi TTRTR, Come on now, you're just embarassing yourself now. Let it go! BTL was THE investment 7-10 years ago. Now? It's small fry. You're begining to look like a Mr creme-brulee from Royston-Vasey, all dolled up in your flared pants, satin-ruffled shirt, paltform soles, kipper tie and medallion, reliving former glories while everyone else has moved on. BTL was the lazy man's game until Gordon decision to kick it into touch. I'm sure Richard Branson doesn't sit in the boardroom saying "I know, stuff all that Virgin stuff, let's get into BTL bedsits and 2-bedder "exec" apparts in Canary Warf". That's where THE action is. No, of course he doesn't! So, here's hoping this faded, washed up thread drifts to the bottom of the stack..... Boomer
  10. Hi, You need real business to pay rents. That is why Britain up until the last year or so,has provided a framework for business to operate - with a high currency value to attract international workers, particularly from Euro land and with the added bonus of opt-outs from Euro labour laws - and so support property services. Land is land. Is the land around SW11 and SW18 any different really than a patch of land in Normandy or Andalucia or a city like Geneva or Brussels or Munich? No. Without business, services and industry, no one can support much of a property market. That is why you can go to the middle of Bulgaria and buy a farmhouse for a month's salary. I would like to balance your statement a little. Boomer
  11. Hi, Well done, you have bucked the market in your own locality. What is the basis of the survey? Which body have compiled and reported the figures? Boomer
  12. Hi, Well done, you have bucked the market in your own locality. What is the basis of the survey? Which body have compiled and reported the figures? Boomer
  13. Hi, Don't know, haven't been following them. It would be a nice little project for someone though, if someone had the time, to add onto the 'signs of credit retraction : let's keep a track' thread pinned above. Boomer
  14. Hi, No future for the kids as things stand. Wishing things will not change the outcome, anyway now, the market has gone beyond sentiment a long time ago now, it's hard, cold, economic reality pulling the market down now. The longer it stagnates, the longer the damage, the worse the fallout for the wider economy. Anyway, BoE and Gordon don't think that house prices control the economy as much as they use to if you read the work BoE did a couple of years ago on the subject and if you read between the lines of his previous IMF and OECD addresses. Maybe he has got things in place for an orderly fall in prices without completely scuppering the rest of the economy. It's all been posted here before. Maybe he is right, maybe he can pull off a fall in house prices without trashing the economy, maybe that's why SIPPS doesn't really bother him much, lets see. I think the debt levels make it difficult mind, it's almost nailed down somekind of large scale retraction of credit. Not if you listen to old Henk Potts though, the tabloid economist. He was at it again this morning on the radio, saying inerest rate falls are nailed on for next year, going to 'reignite' house prices next year (his words). I think any FTB's who buy on his advice should be given his home address sometime down the line. Anyway, I digress. It's like the cycles of nature, the cycles of the housing market. Like the summer forest fires that clear the spruce, revitalise the soil and allow new life to grow, the forest to renew and regenrate itself into a stonger forest. It's all natural, it's all for the good. Boomer
  15. Hi, Mark this date in your diary. This is a date in History that will remembered around the world, studied in universities and disected for decades, nay centuries, the time when the UK - yes! the UK of all places, with its notoriously unstable property market - found the cure for economic cycles, the elixia of economic life, for markets to rise and fall never henceforth. Only mild stagnation punctuated with modest ralies. I believe, lord I believe in the power of stagnation! So I am just waiting for cancer to be cured tomorrow, the energy crises to be solved and world hunger to be eradicated and any other problems that have vexed humanity for the past few thousand years. Boomer
  16. Hi, No, people buying a property for the first time should not just be given simple advice. It is about the biggest financial commitment many of them will make, it could last a large part of their working life and if they are presented false information by a seller or mortgage provider, it can shape the quality of the rest of their life if they make a bad timing judgement. Most of the stories you hear of people making vast sums of money in property are those, either by luck or judgement, who timed the rise and fall cycles well. I know plenty of people,including myself, who have equally lost and made money in the house price cycles. In the same way that anyone coming here for a first maybe should not be thinking this is the be-all-and-end-all of the arguments. It's not, it's just another view but it may at least spark some people into thinking about a massive decision without just relying on the advice of your estate agent, mortgage advisor or bloke down the pub who got his timing right this time around. I think your advice is just as poor, to just shrug your shoulders and not even try to do some research. Boomer
  17. Hi The easiest way is to play coward in these debates, I think. Go and find someone in the media quoting your thoughts, or thoughts similar to your's, then just ask people to comment on their position. You need not draw yourself into mud slinging bouts that way. It's the old politician's route - answer a question with a question. Then just work out what your argument base is, i.e., are you trying to get people to consider an alternative view? Are you trying to get them to agree with your view? Are you trying to get them to expose flaws in their own analysis or things they haven't considered? Unfortunately, from what I see, there is a certain themed argument that emminates from mortgage sellers and estate agents that crops up again and again on the forum under a new posting scenario that sends groans down the spine, unless any new information or analysis can be bought to the table for those worn out arguments - if so, great!. Always nice to look for new developments in the market, either way. Like I say, if you watch the posts over a long enough time, you do see a train of non-thought brashly swagger by the forum shouting "look at my wad, you people are nufings, I'm a property billionare! AAAGGGGH, look at my wad!". That, backed up with an arrogant attitude doesn't go down so well. Treat others as you would want be treated youself, I think the moto is. Boomer
  18. Hi, Where the 'chuffin nora have TTRTR, London_Landlady, I'm alright Jack, etc., gone to in the past week? I mean, from 50 posts a day to one or zero, what's going on?
  19. Hi, Over the last year, as far back as a couple of years ago infact, momentum was building up in the commons amongst (particularly) the liberal democrats but also the conservatives and a few rebel Labour MP's to attack Gordon's decision to adopt the SIPPS and its link to Britain's housing and debt crises, caused by the astronomical housing boom. They in turn are responding to their constituents in raising and campaigning these issues. Left to his own devices, I am pretty sure Gordon would have pushed it through and inflicted terrible damage on the economy and ultimately financial destruction and misery on many houselholds and FTB's. Below are a list of some of those MP's particularly vocal in the commons over the past year or so over the governments mismanagement or distortion-creating policies in the housing market. There are more, I am sure. If you want to voice your concerns, they pretty much all have websites and have seemed ready to champion the cause so far of the negative aspects of hyper-inflationary house prices. Vince Cable MP http://www.vincentcable.org.uk/ Chris Huhne MP http://chrishuhne.org.uk/ borris johnson MP http://www.boris-johnson.com/ Tim Farron MP http://www.timfarron.co.uk/ Jim Cousins MP http://www.newcastle.gov.uk/councill.nsf/c/mp3 Adam Price MP http://www.adamprice.org.uk/ Dan Rogerson MP http://www.danrogerson.org/ Sadiq Khan MP http://www.sadiqkhan.org.uk/ Mark Williams MP http://www.libdems.org.uk/party/people/mr-mark-williams.html Martin Salter MP http://www.martinsalter.com/ Edward Davey MP http://www.edwarddavey.co.uk/
  20. Hi, Where is the debate on SIPPS hapening on the singing pig? I go to the section called property discussion here : http://www.singingpig.co.uk/discussion/forum/?f=41&m=91469 There are some other property forums there but this is the one I see Dr Bubb posting on. I was interested to see what the response might be from very market confident punters would be. Is this the right place to go on that forum? I have only looked at it once or twice before, it seems to be the main for this, from what I can see. Boomer
  21. Hi, Agreed. This is a step in the right direction by Gordon. I think I would have really dispaired about the future of UK plc if the whole VI Interpretation of SIPPS had come to pass. He has alot more to do, mind, he should never have lost control of the property market. For many years, French and German public financiers had been saying that their approach was measured, restrained, aiming for a more stable growth pattern and that Gordon Brown was artificially stimulating the UK economy with debt. I don't think he will be lecturing them this year as their growth rates rise above the UK on the back of their own increased private investment and export markets. He still has a lot, lot more to do but he has defnitely made a good step forward with this decision. Although, whilst reading his address to the IMF back in September and his annual presentation of the UK economy to the commitee, I had a bit of difficulty ascertaining his exact thoughts on the role of house prices in the UK economy. He is a lawyer after all, he is used to vague wording. See what you think ; http://www.imf.org/External/AM/2005/imfc/stmt/eng/gbr.pdf It's PDF so I can't copy and paste the section on housing but at the time, it struck me from his wording that maybe he does not see a crash in house prices as a bust, as long as it is does not cause bust in the wider economy. I didn't post it at the time because it was a period of very strong VI spin and I thought maybe I am trying to interpret something more into it. After this decision today though, I have come back to revisit the article. His comment "house prices are adjusting free of recession", preceding the previous remark of how in the past, declining house prices caused recession due to rises in inflation and interest rates and leading to falls in real house prices. He doesn't qualify the preceding statment viz-a-viz interest rates, inflation and falls by saying that real house prices will not fall, only that they will adjust without causing inflation and rate rises. Maybe Gordon doesn't give a damn about house prices. The BoE's goal is meant to be stability and Gordon is saying that as long as the economic environment is stable, falls in house prices will not cause too great a disruption. This would also tie in with the BoE's research papers a year or two back where they made statements that the new economic framework has broken the dependance of the UK economy on the level of house prices prevailing in the economy. I will qualify that also by saying that I thought that - and posted here - I believed this to be a crock of ****. The BoE stuff on house prices and consumption is archived at ; http://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/169.html Maybe that is his gameplan. Maybe he never, ever really gave a damn about SIPPS and BTL apart from an election sweetner if he is convinced his economic framework for stability will not bust the wider economy, regardless of house price falls. (Delusions of Grandeur or Genius, history will decide ....). Boomer
  22. Who's Sorry Now Artist: Connie Francis Words and music by Bert Kalmar, Ted Snyder, and Harry Ruby Who’s sorry now, who’s sorry now Whose heart is achin’ for breakin’ each vow Who’s sad and blue, who’s cryin’ too Just like I cried over you. Right to the end, just like a friend I tried to warn you somehow You had your way, now you must pay I’m glad that you’re sorry now. Right to the end just like a friend I tried to warn you somehow You had your way, now you must pay I’m glad that you’re sorry now. (REPEAT) Hope that helps
  23. Hi, That is true for the US - although the economy there is pushing the trade gap because of booming growth, as opposed to the Uk economic deterioration at a time of increasing defecit - but Japan, Germany, and france are all on track to finish the year with higher growth rates (OECD), coming from positions of real recovery with increasing exports and industrial, business activity. Very telling as effectively France and Germany are the linchpin economies behind the Euro. Some other widely traded currencies such as the Canadian$, Aus$, Yuan, SwissF, NZ$ are also approaching the end of year from positions of stronger led growth. If any of these currencies are vulnerable at this time, sterling is the strongest candidate after the dollar, although the two are quite strongly linked together, compounding sterling's position if the dollar tanks first. Boomer
  24. Hi, Looking at all these regulations above, I have to say that I think it only really brings UK into line with other countries. Compared to Canada, France and Germany (countries I have enough experience of to make a comparison), the rental maket here is very substandard and unprofessional. It is just bringing us up in line with the standards and requirements of other places, particularly the wealthier EU nations. We are in a single market, we are expected to standardised quality and regulations. It is one of the better government policies as it will encourage the more effecient and professional landlords and so increase the quality of rental housing stock and the service provided by landlords. BTL is a service business just like any other service business in the private sector. Boomer
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.