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Everything posted by boom_and_bust

  1. Hi, The MP has not missed the point. He does not want to acknowledge the point. Many, many people in the UK own homes, many have done very well (on paper) and they are the politically strong. FTB's are the marginal voters in most respects to politicians, as long as NuLab are prepared to keep the cheap cash and public spending flowing and a major external shock does not occur, they will maintain the same course. If he was to take serious action, he would lose more voters than he gains. Don't get me wrong, I think the UK plc is headed for a major fall at some point with the current course of action, it could be anytime given the precarious position of public and private debt in this nation. The rate cut before the last election was not merited for any reason whatsoever except to woo voters. I just don't think politicians will have have any interest for the mess Labour are inflicting on the UK economy until it becomes a vote winning policy.
  2. Hi, To cause a sudden, sharp crash, I think you will need rates around 7% or more. That is not as impossible as you might think. Despite the pressures of the ERM in the late eightees - early nintees when rates spiraled, there were next to no 'professional' economists predicting the spike in rates and deepening of the recession that was already in place at that time. That is why the market went pop, people didn't see it coming even though the whole economic horizon did all seem a bit stange at the time. The affect of a .25% raise will be far harder on industry and the exchanges. Ultimately, that affects everyone. The steps should have been taken earlier. The current fear of inflation in world economies (UK apart Ho!Ho! ) was sparked by the visible destruction and breakdown of economies and society of the inflationary and stagflationary era's of the seventies and early eightees. The easing of monetary policy, on the run up to an election last year, was precisely the wrong move to make. But hey ho! Come on Eng-er-land!!
  3. Hi, This is true. It can be a big deal when you start talking serious amounts of money, if we consider industrial finance, the money markets or exchange markets. There is a lot of excess, speculative cash sloshing around the globe at the moment, it can be switched at the flick of a pinkie. Are we headed toward an era similar to the roaring twenties again, without central bank intervention? That's a big question troubling finance ministers around the world at the moment. Come on England! Come on England! England to beat Brazil in the final, Crouch to score a hatrick.
  4. Don't be so sure. Don't bank on a 70's style reflation, there's a something a brewin' in the BoE at the moment..... Here are some images of straw in the meantime.
  5. Hi, Errr ....... this is unbelievable. I want to read the original minutes of that meeting myself perhaps because that really is passing the buck as it is presented. Perhaps that is why Mervin has been so vocal to (seemingly) distance himself from BoE policy over the past few years. In another respect, the UK is still an oil producer, we should be benefiting from world oil prices, many other OPEC members are infact experiencing economic booms. That is a larger question I am researching at the current time in respect to some other work. There is a very identifiable link between UK economic renaisance over the past 30 years and the discovery and tapping of North Sea oil revenues, particulalry beneficial to the unprecendented growth of the city of London finance centre as Sterling became a major PetroCurrency on the foreign exchange markets. Have we spent that money wisely? The seventies was a very dire period, prior to the Oil windfalls, the UK economy was a basket case, the nation was close to bankruptcy and had to go to the IMF and world bank for financial assistance. Without the discovery of Oil here at that time, things could have been very different then. On admittance to the EU for example, Britain was one of the poorer nations of the EU. Do you remember that? Oil changed a lot of things in this country.
  6. Hi, Yes, I guess that is correct. Do you want me to explain how IP resolve hosts work? It is not like a telephone wire to your house. Do you understand that? PM if not and I will give you some pointers toward IP routing protocol so you are better able to understand. I do not know, I do not care how this has occured but my personal email account used to register here has also been under password attack for several weeks. Other members may wish to review the security of this site and their own personal information, that should be covered by the law of confidentiality. Oldie, you need to nip this in the bud. Boomer
  7. Hi, Can we kill this thread or at least change the original poster's (sam??) identity and avatar away from the one I use. Again, this person has hacked into this forum account and posted on my behalf. It is causing a little confusion. It should also be moved to the Troll sub-forum. I believe Bubb last year was also hoaxed on the forum by a spoof poster in a similar manner. Bored, desparate EA's can be quite devious if you question the current housing market, it seems. As for IMupNorth's straw clutching above, I am sorry to disappoint but your views are about the complete opposite of my current thoughts and I do not live anywhere near your end of the world. If Webmaster would like to verify my IP location history, my location is between SW15 london or West Central London or Quebec State, Canada. Cheerio, Boomer
  8. Hi, Someone must have hacked the pass. I do not post as much as once I due to various reasons, I do still read regularly and if I come across something useful, I post. I did not consider myself one of the uberbears of this place but judging by the posts over the weekend here, I am preceived that way (who cares?!?!?). It is also amusing and interesting to feel the backlash of some members - listening and discussing people's views is one thing, going on personal attacks is not really the the thing I first came here to participate. (but this is not a face of concern). I do read a variety of interesting views and news here, the PM's and acidic posts are water off a ducks back. Also, I have stated several times in posts that it is possible for the market not to crash and explored those scenarios - just IMHO very unlikely given the current circumstances. If things change, I would modify my thoughts accordingly. Infact, this past six months I have strengethened my conviction that the fall is coming. It is not inevitable in my mind but going the right course. Let's see. It was a very nice and sunny day today. Hi, I usually connect here through Bluetooth roaming wireless. You need to make it clear to non technical people that an IP address is not like a telephone line that is connected to the same address. Probably 50K people in central london at anytime will be sharing the same IP address on roaming devices. Lest we get the usual round of consipracies. Should this entire thread be deleted as it was not a legitimate post?
  9. Hello ; This is the real Boom_and_bust. A clever soul must have hacked my login. Seems I must have touched a nerve for someone to go to all the trouble. No fears, I am not off anywhere. Boomer
  10. I have had enough, i read this crappy board 24/7 praying for that bit of good news, it is time to get on with my life. I hate to say this, but we are just a bunch of sad gits hoping for the worse for other people. GOOD BYE
  11. Hi, That's a whole heap of straws you're clutching in your hand there ....
  12. Hi, We're OK though, it's the rest of the world who are one-by-one getting it wrong. There is a new paradigm here, a miracle economy in the UK based on a virtuos circle of house price rises feeding economic growth and then more house price and more growth and so on., If only they would learn, particularly those 'slow-lane' eurocrats over the channel. As house prices continue to rise and fuel economic growth, we will have plenty let over to settle the debts. It's different here because it is a small island with a big population and they are not making land anymore, don't you know, so the only way is up from now on. More growth, more virtuos cycles and the price of Hamsters, saxophones and Ipods imported from China is only going down in the future, just like the price of oil, so inflation will never rear it's head ever again.
  13. Hi, Keep an eye on the stealth cuts Gordy is slyly tucking away here and there or transfers across the public accounts to plug the gaping defecit. The road and rail investment fund, the contingency oil reserves, the calls for public sector wage restraint, the police force cuts, the talk of health service cuts and ****** cheapest of the lot for a labour government ***** repeal of the pensioners winter heating allowance this past year. I wonder if many other public sector workers will feel happy to accept wage freezes while others get hefty increases. Now, I am not claiming yet that the sky is falling down yet but keep your eyes on this area, this could spiral and become more open to public scrutiny and the markets if the cuts continue to escalate. This is where Labour governments normally get clobbered when their public sector empires turn against them. Even with these measures, the fiscal situation is not improving. Gordy's potential ace was that the UK was out of sync (ahead) of other world economies. An upturn in the US or EU economies looks increasingly less likely to offer support to us now. The traditional spring bounce is almost past us now, let's see how the new 'miracle'economy fares over the rest of the year. Interesting times ahead! Boomer
  14. Hi, Sigh! How many times? I thought we have covered this. I do not live in the 'rat race'. There are far more profitable ventures in life than property. Far, far more profitable. If you can discover a talent or interest in life and stick with it, the world has a funny way of rewarding you for it. The challenge is to find your own particular talent or aptitude to contribute to the world. Once you do that, you're free for life, rat races do not exist for you anymore.
  15. Hi, In your model, can you account for increasing oil and commodities prices? I only say this as I myself have been digesting the recent OECD economic reports in the past week and in particular, on the UK, they do make quite a fair point that within the next 3-5 years, continuing high oil and commodities prices will retard growth within highly indebted countries with high house prices such as the UK. Yes, the UK specifically targeted in the analysis. The conclcusion drawn within the body report that high oil and commodities are a permanent, increasing aspect of the future as third world nations continue to develop and industrialise. At the same time, the benign, deflactionay aspects of those nations industrial output is likey to have peaked and will be upwards from now on. Combined with higher energy costs, the long term outlook for inflation and interest rates is up. They have stressed several times throughout the report that the US and UK are about the most vulnerable nations to these new directions due to the unprecendeted levels of debt. Again, while they see an overall, benign world economic path, the UK is likely to see a rough time ahead, particularly if a shock is encountered. It also went onto chart how the UK tax burden is the highest in history (42.4 per cent of GDP) and is likely to increase due to poor government fiscal positions (they have a different conclusion to you there, on your charts!). Fears over the dollar and US trade defecit, it's impact on currency and stock markets and the UK's historical links to the US economic path are also explored. Remember, it's little over a week ago that a wobble in the US markets caused a wobble in the pound and the FTSE share indices here. I would suggest you digest it as well, the world is too turbulent a place not to consider a wider picture. Aslo have a look at recent government cutbacks in spending, even little items like the repeal of the pensioners winter heating allowances, the recent cutbacks in police expenditure and the little matter of £3bn that was transferred out of public accounts from road and rail funding provision to offsetting the fiscal defecit. There are a lot of stealth cuts cropping into the public accounts to try and plug the reckless spending and waste in the fiscal positions of UK plc - you do not even explore this in your analysis. My feeling is that reality is catching up with the 'miracle' economy. If you are basing any kind of financial decision making on your above analysis, I would suggest you dig a little deeper into the fiscal position of the current administration. The full extent of the accounts is never really revealed until after a government has left office. http://www.oecd.org/document/18/0,2340,en_...0.html#contents
  16. Hi, WTF???!!! This thread?!!? The Topic?!!!? Debt to society?!!?? TTRTR is cracking up, I am assuming it is either sunstroke or lack-of-sleep (maybe lying awake at night worrying about debt). Think more about debt to the banks, most of them have been posting record profits in the past few years, then think about the 100's of billions of tax payer pounds the government has pee'd up the wall with next to no improvement in schools, healthcare, housing and transport over the past decade. Then think of the unsustainble, politically engineered property-boom over the past decade that YOU want working folk to now pay for, at levels higher than anything that has ever previously occured, even by the standards of the historically, crazy boom-and-bust property market of the UK. WHO exactly is looking for the easy option TRTTR?
  17. Hi KON, I like reading your own research here and on David's forum but do you really believe 4.5% is a neutral interest rate for the uk economy? Really? Are you letting your heart get the better of your head? Looking at trend rate, this is nothing more than a reflationary rate, I would say 5.5% is a neutral rate for the economy. The last rate cut stumulated spending and approvals, adding nicely to consumer debt and property prices but hasn't helped industry and business very much at all, quite the opposite, it has proped up the housing bubble and currency traders fears but little else. Boomer
  18. Hi, Read some of the links and articles I have posted over the past year. This is a labour government and they have used the same means, different methods, as previous Labour governments to spend their way out of recession. In previous property crashes, credit has contracted sharply and people were unable to pa their debt commitments. Under Gordon "No-Crash" Brown, it has become fairly easy to write off your debts and keep your property via Voluntary Insolvency Agreements, FSA tacit support of unsecured overdraft and credit card debts, massive expansion of broad money supply aggregates via the FSA and "independent" Bank of England and concerted treasury actions in the currency and money markets (think back to those old black and white movie images of pre-nazi Germany or America in the roaring twenties when the government were printing lots of notes and people ended up going to the grocery store with a wheel barrow full of money to buy food). It really isn't any more complicated than that, there is not a new paradigm beyond trying to spend out of a normal business cycle (recession or property slump) like previous labour governments. The Treasury/Gordy are relying no the chance that they may have a business cycle out of sequence with Europe, America and Japan and that a turn in fortunes for those nations will favourably affect the UK economy at a time that is becomes no longer possible to spend anymore. Obviously, no nation can carry on living in such massive debt and irresponsibility before the fundementals catch-up and the bills have to be paid. If he gets the timing right, it may result in a decade of lean times, inflation or currency devaluation activity but avoidance of out-and-out recession. I cannot think of any other nation who have ever achieved it though. Otherwise, it will be a repeat of the 1970's again. It really is no more complicated than that. Gordon Brown is not a latter day Friedman or Keynes with anything new to bring to the table, he is not even an economist or academic by profession. It is the same old boom_and_bust scenario, just a different decade but this really is about as close to the wind as it is possible to sail. Boomer
  19. Hi, Yes, another pillar of the "miracle economy". YOU pay tax to offset tax credits and bad debts from folk who rent property from Ajay and the other local authourity BTL'ers or buy with 6x, 8x or 10x celf-certs, fuelling a state funded property speculation scheme, all at the tax payers expense. Maybe we can present a bill to Gordy and Tony for this lunacy!!!!!!!
  20. Hi, My local pub closed down last week. Landlord said that the weekday trade has died off the past year, he's concentrating on his other place.
  21. Hi, Exactly, his timing and his tarket market were the right time at the right place with the right product. There may still be some legs left in former social housing yet, I think, from an investor point of view, for an investor with good contacts into local authorities. BTL is quite a diverse market, other areas of it now, of course, are a disaster waiting to happen. PS., I think we can expect Bruno "Umbrella-man" Prozac to be posting this very moment on SPIg ; "Look. They agree BTL can be a good investment" http://tesco.homepages/umbrellas/index.html
  22. Hi, Immigration is pretty much a necessity now. We have one of the lowest birth rates in the western world, the Brits are not reproducing enough the cover the ageing population. And it is nothing to do with IPODS or binge drinking or easyjet flights or armani jeans or X-Boxes, expensive housing is about the biggest factor.
  23. Hi, His plan is fairly astute and his timing was impecable. He either spotted - or fell upon by chance - the mass sale of council housing by NuLab to the private sector and letting of private sector housing to council tenants. Why would he want to sell? He buys particularly into former council estates and rents those properties back to folks on housing benefits - it is a licence to print money as it is a direct link into taxpayer revenue. And as immigration is meant to be going uping several more millions into the coming decades, I wouldn't sell if I was him, those people will need housing somewhere. You know the adage, where there is muck, there is brass. I think where some folks on the SPig (which I actually quite enjoy reading) may be going wrong are those folk chasing grander properties or 'good' area properties. While they may be better able to hold their capital value in a downturn, the rental prospects will definitely go south if the chickens come home to roost on the 'miracle' economy and it finally falls in line with the rest of the world. Ajay will still get his revenue regardless. That is an issue though. It is not so nice that he boasts so frequently that he gets up in the middle of the day and generally gives a 'lordly' attitude about his whole franchise. It is tax payers money that he has gained access to, that is not so nice for those of us in the productive economy, running business and paying the taxes to fund his arrogance. He should remember that he is being paid by us to provide a public sector service. I am sure drug barons and pimps on those estates may earn more than Ajay himself, doesn't mean I admire their attitudes or lifstyle anymore. Government policy could change as well, that would be a worry for the business plan if a change of attitude comes along, maybe taxation rises on local authority landlords or they are pushed towards more formalised and regulated businesses by local councils such as housing associations. You never know, when you are getting paid by the government and the tax payers, legislation can change quickly. That said, I think on the current state of play, his business model is pretty sound for the forseeable future. Boomer
  24. Hi, Next few months will see a BBC programme, I guess, saying "Nuclear power is the No.1 priority now". Then Nulab will release a dossier saying "We are 45 mins away from the lights going off". Gordy's brother's firm EDF will then produce glossy TV commercials showing the success of foreign nuclear instalations. Not that that is a bag thing necessarily, just don't like the idea of further feathering the nests of Nulab ministers.
  25. Hi, I try to follow as much as I can the development of alternative energy. I am optimistic we are ok given the advanced state of prepardness and research the French, Japanese and US have committed to the area, particularly Iter, EDF and several of the Japanese industrials. Maybe Davy Attenborough knows something I have missed but it looks almost as if it is a case of timing for when Oil and gas are switched to alternatives.
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