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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by needsleep

  1. Just watching NHK news. Forecasting sub-zero temps and snow for Sendai.
  2. Just looking at Sarnia - the prices look a bit extreme. Are people are actually buying at those prices? On the subject of VAT, it is factored into sell-on prices so you get it back later. Not sure about GoldMoney myself. Looking at the crap going on all over the world I'd rather have the physical bullion.
  3. There is only one thing to say and that is clearly not good. Poor people.
  4. We got a big problem in this country right now. A government that is useless and a discredited opposition that is not ready to govern. The coalition has some life left in it yet bot not another 4 years. Clegg is finished. He won't survive next year, maybe not even this one.
  5. How taxes are raised to pay for armies and how armies are raised has been a thorny issue throughout history in many a state. There's no easy answer to it but the vast majority of states do recognise it as a core state responsibility. It is not something the Tories are considering privatising.
  6. Certainly an interesting thing to consider but every serious discussion I ever seen of this comes back to the same starting point - that state-provided internal and external security makes sense as does a state-provided legal system. The real argument starts from there, that having provided for security and the law how much further does the state take responsibility for protecting the population - that is a big part of what democratic politics in this country is about.
  7. It's a perfectly reasonable arrangement that the vast majority of countries in the World use, whatever the flavour of government. If you don't like it move to Somalia.
  8. Anything where it makes sense for the state to have a natural monopoly. For example, in terms of external and internal security arguably the presence of multiple competing providers of the same service (army, police) will reduce security, not increase it - like in Somalia.
  9. And badly underfunded at that point with badly targeted funds, long waiting lists, decaying hospitals and many health outcomes worse than they are today.
  10. It depends what you needed it for. For example if it was for your sex change then they were right to refuse it.
  11. It wasn't the French that did us it was the Normans. Posh Vikings
  12. Oh yes, the ones who are doing God's work like Stephen Green, former HSBC chairman and ordained priest. "With the benefit of hindsight, this is an acquisition we wish we had not undertaken," Stephen Green, HSBC's chairman, said, referring to HSBC's $15Bn acquisition of the sub-prime lender Household International in 2003 "The industry has done many things wrong. It is important to remember that many ordinary bankers have always sought to provide good service to their customers; but we must also recognise that there have been too many who have profoundly damaged the industry's reputation." No shit! 1 Timothy 6:10 "For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evils, It is through this craving that some have wandered away from the faith and pierced themselves with many pangs."
  13. Nice blog. I love the bit from the BBA about balance sheets when: 1. Not all the credit created through uber-leverage is yet on the balance sheet which.... 2. will instead be hived off to bad banks which...... 3. Will be guaranteed by UK taxpayers who.... 4. Think they will be guaranteeing legitimate non-performing loans when.... 5. In reality what they are guaranteeing is a load of toxic crap created off-balance sheet.... 6. Which never touched or will ever touch the balance sheet Ask the ******wits when the British Bad Bankers Association (BBBA) is going to be set up
  14. There will be riots in the UK but not with food as a standalone issue. But anyway, you live in a village. Your village has no shops. They all closed down because Tesco opened a mega store 5 miles away. You run out of bread. You got a ten mile round trip. The price of a loaf has hit £2.50. Petrol has hit £3 a litre. You drive to Tesco to buy the bread in your 4x4. It costs you 6 notes for a loaf of bread. You buy a few things you didn't plan to on your credit card too - a gressingham duck, some fois gras and a kilo of pine nuts. You get back, slump in your favourite chair (fair trade no less and carved by blind Romanian tramps) that you are in the process of forced selling on ebay and think............'why didn't I just eat feckin cake instead'
  15. Amen to that. Excellent post. Right to the point. I been waiting to post this from Hayek: In particular, it is necessary to take account of certain forms of credit not connected with banks which help, as is commonly said, to economize money, or to do the work for which, if they did not exist, money in the narrower sense of the word would be required. The criterion by which we may distinguish these circulating credits from other forms of credit which do not act as substitutes for money is that they give to somebody the means of purchasing goods without at the same time diminishing the money-spending power of somebody else. This is most obviously the case when the creditor receives a bill of exchange which he may pass on in payment for other goods. It applies also to a number of other forms of commercial credit, as, for example, when book credit is simultaneously introduced in a number of successive stages of production in the place of cash payments, and so on. The characteristic peculiarity of these forms of credit is that they spring up without being subject to any central control, but once they have come into existence their convertibility into other forms of money must be possible if a collapse of credit is to be avoided. But it is important not to overlook the fact that these forms of credits owe their existence largely to the expectation that it will be possible to exchange them at the banks against other forms of money when necessary, and that, accordingly, they might never come into existence if people did not expect that the banks would in the future extend credit against them. The existence of this kind of demand for more money, too, is therefore no proof that the quantity of the circulating medium must fluctuate with the variations in the volume of production. It is only a proof that once additional money has come into existence in some form or other, convertibility into other forms must be possible. So, ignoring the fact that mainstream commercial banks successfully sidestepped capital reserve ration e.g. using SIVs you have the growth of shadow banking organisations which effectively operated as banks, became as trusted as commercial banks and operated with eye-watering levels of leverage outside mainstream regulation and not subject to the same capital reserve ratios as mainstream banks. They could create money out of nowhere. When the bust comes and many shadow and mainstream banks attempt to deleverage at the same time the 'money' created from excessive leverage during the boom has to be converted to prevent a complete crash of the system. Hayek described all this in 1935 - the whole mechanism was already in place then.
  16. Yes it was. When the bubble burst it wiped trillions off stock market values, triggered a recession and devastated pension funds.
  17. Nope. The lust for yield would have created a bubbles in other assets. There is nothing unique about the fact it was housing this time. Ten years ago it was technology. The next one will be something different.
  18. Your confusion is a blind faith in what you believe to be the 'system'. Banks have been creating credit off the balance sheet using SIVs and this allowed them to step around the required capital ratios. If you look at commercial banks it's bad enough but if you begin to consider the level of leverage of the some shadow banking institutions then it gets really scary.
  19. The notion common . . . to 90 per cent, of the writings of monetary cranks is that every batch of goods is entitled to he born with a monetary label of equivalent value round its neck, and to carry it round its neck until it dies. D.H. Robertson Economica 23 ( June 1928): 142
  20. I read some oh Hayek's stuff on this. It was when I had my 'oh feck, we're stuffed' moment.
  21. The 'money' doesn't have to be created by a central bank. It can be brought into existence in other ways, or at least something that would not be necessarily considered a regular form of circulating money can be created outside of central control, something that once it exists must later be convertible to other forms of money if the collapse of the entire system is to be avoided. I could create it. Anybody could in theory.
  22. I think a lot of people saw it. I moved house myself in 2003 after my second kid was born. Moved because we needed a bigger house. We'd been planning it for 2 years, clearing down the few debts we had (student loans etc...), getting ourselves into good shape financially so we could cope with one year of maternity leave. A house move was factored in and we worked hard saving for it only to see the price of a semi-detached house in our area rocket from £100k to £160k in less than a year. We took one look at those prices and agreed something wasn't right, e.g. how could people afford that?, what would we do if I lost my job? etc... etc... We could have borrowed the money easily but we settled for a more modest property at around the price we'd expected to pay originally. We knew it wasn't right. Other people must have know it wasn't right. Those £160k houses went up to £240k a few years later but still people, people with similar means to us, were finding the money to buy them. The instituations that lent to them must have know it wasn't right. Basically I think everybody knew but most just looked the other way. Anyway, I bet most of the idiots that did lie to get their mortgages wish they were in my shoes now. Still they probably had a nice few years living like they won the lottery.
  23. I'm married to an Irish lass and got married over there in the mid-90s. We had a bus load of people over for the wedding and I'll never forget the looks of amazement on their faces as we travelled through the countryside 20-30 miles west of Dublin. Just totally agog at all the new luxury houses being built. It looked like a lifestyle most people in the UK only dream of. Make no mistake those Irish electors kept voting those politicians in because they loved what they were experiencing. There was very little questioning of how it was possible. Few dissenting voices. They thought it would never end.
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