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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Dicky

  1. http://www.cml.org.uk/servlet/dycon/zt-cml...eases_2005_0620 At first sight it would appear the market has turned a corner and is picking up but delve into the figures and it all become apparant. No where in the press release does it mention the number of Loans for houses purchases compare to last year, instead it refers to the seasonal nature of the house market to say January was a low month but compare to this its risen. What the failed to mention is: Loans for houses purchases last year was. May 2004 12,000 Jun 2004 13,900 Jul 2004 14,600 May 2005 its 9,900. 21% down, if this were retail figures they would be jumping off buildings. If June and July don't improve then it will be down even more. Just to add also, with 25% more houses on the market but 21% fewer loans made to buy, that amounts to a 50% worse market to sell in than last year, to maintain the current house prices with the current volume on the market the number of loans approved should be at least 25% higher than last year (15000) not 21% down(9900). We are just approaching the cliff and the reverse gear is broken.
  2. I've said it before, the last crash started to to accelerate just at the point when the inflation figures crossed the zero mark, for this reason they (the VI's loby) will manipulate the figures to show it never crossing this threshold, maybe they will square it then take the square root of it.
  3. You'll find that it started February, the rest of the country are just waking up. Just look at the jobless count steadly increasing now for the last 4 months, this hasen't happen since TB and GB (the two Ronnies) took over. Huge layoff are just a few months away.
  4. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/search.rsp?lo_u...t=1&stc_s=false Asking £1.85 million today. http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?op...rch_id=14745765 Bought 05 Aug 2004 for £410,000. I think they mean to say a brilliant investment if you manage to sell it not to mug who buys it.
  5. I think what slaphead was getting at is this, it was pretty obvious Tony the tw4t was going to win the election but no one was sure by how much majority, the greater the majority the more likely he would serve the full term and so money markets would feel some kind of security, at it stands he scaped through with a gnats chuff of a majority and so it is unlikely hes going to stay longer than 18 months, with the prospect of Gordon being handed the control it looks like we're pretty screwed, if you don't beleive me just look at the pound, its fallen, the FTSE hasen't budged and buyer confidence is rapidly disappearing.
  6. Just the calrify a few things, terminal velocity applies to a falling object, one which has lower air resistance will infact take longer to reach its terminal velocity and so will have a higer final speed than one with greater resistance.
  7. Alot of folks don't seem to realise that 1/4 million means you have to pay back 1/2 a million beforte tax which equates to 3/4 Million of earned income for the life of the mortgage.
  8. A picture speaks a thousand words, and all thousand words are f***ing hell.
  9. Never, they will square the inflation figure then take the root mean square (RMS) of it,
  10. Pound falls, cost of cheap imports rises like DVD& TV which make up our bullsh1t basket for calculating inflation, this leads to inflation here, which means IR need to rise to stop us breaching the magic 2% set be Gordon Brown trousers.
  11. Which part of Cambridgeshire, not Cottenham I hope.
  12. I dont know your stepfather but he sounds abit of a tw** to me, can you give him a slap from all us the next time you see him.
  13. We're heading for a year low against the dollar.
  14. We have the lowest IR's for nearly 50 years, the truth is nobody now can stop the inevitible, lowering IR's further will do nothing at this stage, they can't really go any lower, this is new ground we haven't been here in recent times, in short whats about to hit is a giant sh*t sandwich, everyone is going to have to take a bite, it's as simple as that.
  15. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...5&in_page_id=57 Thats right in April is was 23.6% in May it was down to 10.9%, in June what's the prediction, my money is on 0%, game over.
  16. In 2000, would you have said in 2005 it will rise by 200%, probably not. -5% ain't going to happen by my reckoning more like -15%, 2006, -10% 2007, then -5% 2008. Heres how I go to this. 2001 Average house was affordable just about. 2002 it was affordable using v.large deposit. 2003 it was affordable using even larger deposit borrow on 0% credit card and 3% IO mortgage. 2004 it was affordable if you ram raided a post office with a JCB. 2005 better secuity in banks and Post offices now means the money supple has dried up, queue the fall.
  17. Yes but Gordy and chums said it all okay because with our new $1.50 an hour workers we as a nation are more productive, we should all be drinking champers and dancing in the street.
  18. Yields aren't 15 % like they used to be 8 years ago, its now 4/5% if you're lucky, no new money is entering the sector to keep it afloat, the weaker yields will be hitting the market pretty soon as BTLers off load, yep and these will be snapped up by FTB's and so tenants maybe a little thin on the ground soon.Could all start to snow ball by the autumn/late summer at a guess.
  19. Why don't we put Prescott in one before its knocked down.
  20. It that Bill clinton you're referring to.
  21. Dr Bubb is an appreviation of Debt Bubble, he isn't a doctor and neither are you the fountain of knowledge with respect to property investment, I can only assume you are currently seeing you paper worth each week slowly wither away and so have found some solace here on HPC, you have my deepest sympathy. Regards big players, the real big guys own 1000 properties between them, 10 property landlords are chump change.
  22. Gordan maybe think he's removed boom and bust it just means this time around the bust is going to be much larger, the stand off we're now seeing always occurs before the biggie,
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