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plummet expert

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Posts posted by plummet expert

  1. Wh Smith Thread

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/blog/2013/jan/23/wh-smith-kate-swann-profit

    So if they cut them originally because of the margins how are they going sell them now?

    They will probably only sell the fastest selling lines in store, rather like supermarkets. They will then tap into customers online for the rest, giving them vouchers or whatever. They sell books online (even mine) and also electronically...so why not everything else.

  2. It is debatable whether or not food speculation increases or decreases prices, whereas we can be entirely sure that land speculation pushes up food costs, leading to hunger and starvation in poorer countries.

    Land really is different to other traded commodities, it isn't discovered or grown or produced. It is intellectual property, not real property.

    What Jim Rogers has ben saying for several years is that Food producing Land will rise in value and is therefore a good longer term investment. He is not a goldbug except that he has said it as he sees it - Gold has gone up in response to the debasement of fiat currency. In general that trend is still there and the pressure is not reducing. I have met Jim and found him very knowledgeable indeed. He used to work with Soros, which is why he is so unconscionably rich. He now lives in Singapore and does not believe the USD has anywhere nice to go.

  3. The Govt wants to pretend that we can sustain ourselves borrowing massive amounts every month and suddenly growth will reappear. The fact that it has all hit the wall again is no surprise! Mortgage lending is falling again - house sales will follow suit very soon - the FFLS is a sham and a disgrace - Sterling is under attack.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9916575/Euro-Group-head-says-UK-at-risk-of-sterling-crisis.html

    I think the article is a reflection of how the markets now view Britain. We did not allow our housing market to right itself. We stayed uncompetitive. We have done little to help manaufacturing and exporting fire up. We continue to borrow and its rising not falling. The Coalition have not succeeded. They will simply add another £700 billion to the national debt to 2015 and make it about £1,400billion, with little to show for it. If you had proposed that scenario for the year 2015 to us in 2010, would the British public have voted for it?

  4. Hang on - a few days ago we were told that mortgage lending was us, buyers were returning to the market and prices were increasing.

    I DID POST ON HERE A GOOD 8 EXAMPLES OF REAL PRICE FALLS IN THE RECENT PAST - ONLY A FEW OF THE MANY I COULD SEE IN WEST SUSSEX.

    I do not see any real rally in prices - It's the usual effort to have people put up asking prices a tad, which has failed every year since 2009 to take hold.

    The FFL scheme is an outrage. At a time when prices remain so high, to uphold and encourage young people into mortgages of 4 or more times joint income is madness. Don't they listen? PRICES ARE FAR TOO HIGH - MANY WAGES HAVE AND ARE FALLING - THE ECONOMY IS TOO WEAK FOR ANY SUSTAINED HOUSE PRICE RECOVERY. THE ONLY THING WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY HELP IS A SHARP AND SUSTAINED FALL IN HOUS PRICES. Now that would be part of 'rebalancing' the economy.

    How do the gOvt or any other commentator for that matter suppose that prices can or even should rise from here? London is a foreign speculators market so put that to one side. Anywhere else and you could be looking at 4-12 x average annual income for a tiny home.

    I have noticed that sales appeared more sluggish in the New Year than for some time. Still the spring cometh.......

  5. Anyone any idea if there is any significant difference any more to the value of a property let under an AST, or with vacant possession.

    Was taking a look at the penalties for unlawful eviction under the 1988 Housing Act. Under the Act a tenancy can only be ended within its term by i) surrender or ii) by possession order and execution by the County Court.

    Penalties for unlawful eviction are calculated on the differnece to the landlords interest in the value of the property let or empty. However some of the cases I've studied some of the awards have been as little as £500. One judge thought for an AST let at "rack rent" there was little or no difference.

    So if a landlord wants to boot out a tenant, without a Court order, the penalties are not that great, unless the eviction is aggravated in some way, harrassment, physical threats and so on.

    There is no difference in value of property let on an assured shorthold tenancy compared to vacant - a few hundred quid - if thats what u mean. It is easy to get a court order at the end of a term or by giving 2 months notice on a periodic assured shorthold. If T won't leave then a Court order is yours at application.

  6. Apparently a barrister was one of the people needing the aid of a food bank in Witney. Around 260K people a year are using them. David Cameron sees for himself the harm the reckless lending did, and 'austerity' is now doing to try to recover the losses, to real people...

    http://news.sky.com/story/1059288/pm-meets-families-facing-poverty-at-food-bank

    ...before leaning on the Bank of England to further squeeze savers and penalise banks that this time round refuse to recklessly lend money

    You really couldn't make it up.

    I can well believe the bit about a Barrister being a customer of a foodbank. The market in legal services is in a state of collapse - high fees at the upper end and sometimes doing work for nothing or nearly nothing at the other, hoping for a scrap. Lots of qualified barristers and solicitors now give up their profession because there is no longer a safe career path and sometimes almost no money in it for the high risks involved. Lots of Solicitors firms are currently going bust or about to. It will affect justice before long. You need not believe the silly legal costs the papaers print. They are just made up.

  7. Landlord doesn't seem to understand the law for two reasons:

    1) By giving you a S21 notice at the start he has given you "notice to leave", which you do as requested in this case. Which is a very easy argument.

    2) A tenancy only becomes a rolling tenancy if you stay longer then the fixed term tenancy agreement. However this might depend on what exactly is written in the tenancy agreement, although often the clauses in the contract trying to restrict this are invalid.

    If you want detailed advice it probably is good to ask on moneysupermarket forum. There are some pretty sensible people advicing on tenancy law and can provide you with links to read.

    You are correct in both 1) and 2) above. Our friend on here - You do not need to give notice to a fixed term - it already has an end to it. Your LL is wrong and gave YOU notice himself at the start, which is very strange. It is only a LL (not a T) that HAS TO give notice to avoid a periodic shorthold to come into effect automatically at the end of a fixed term and by giving you a S21 notice he did that anyway. You can just leave. Only if someone stays one day over the end of the fixed term does this alter, as then you would have allowed the periodic tenancy to have been created - in your case apparently you can't anyway because LL has already given you notice!

  8. A nominal prescription charge to discourage abuse becomes an earner. Much the same as parking fees I suppose. I'm so glad I'm Scottish. At some points I've had to get 3 prescriptions at a time - and I can tell you that as a low paid person, 25 pounds was almost double my weekly food budget.

    So the unemployed get it free, but the minimum wager pays. FFS

    I DO THINK THAT UNLESS SOMEONE NEEDS ONGOING TREATMENT, THEN A SMALL CHARGE SHOULD BE MADE TO ANYONE INCLUDING PEOPLE ON BENEFITS. IF WORKING THEN U SHOULD BE CHARGED A SENSIBLE AMOUNT, AGAIN UNLESS U NEED CONTINUAL TREATMENT.

  9. :lol::lol: Yeah, the whole presentation is nonsense, might scare the I-plod generation but I remember the power cuts in the 70`s and did time in the YTS camps in the 80`s man :lol:

    Yes, debt collapse is coming, but life will get better, not worse if you are Joe Average.

    [b]THE SOONER IT HAPPENS THE LESS PAINFUL IT WILL BE. NOT MUCH GOOD THE COALITION FINDING IN 2010 THERE IS £700BILLION OF NATIONAL DEBT LEFT BY LABOUR; SQUEALING ABOUT IT, BUT ACTUALLY ADDING ANOTHER £700BILLION TO NATIONAL DEBT OVER 5 YEARS, THEN SAYING "WE'VE CUT THE DEFICIT BY A QUARTER ALREADY". ESPECIALLY SO WHEN THAT IS NOT EVEN TRUE. THE MONTHLY DEFICIT, ADDING TO NATIONAL DEBT IS ACTUALLY ON THE RISE AGAIN. THE FALL, SUCH AS IT WAS IS A FIDDLED FIGURE BY VARIOUS DEVICES I HAVE OFTEN MENTIONED ON HPC. THAT IS WHY OUR AAA RATING WAS CUT. THE MEDICINE IS NOT WORKING AND IS OFF THE RAILS FOR NOW. UKIP IS ON THE RISE.....TEE HEE. ED BALLS HAS NO CLUE EITHER BY THE WAY. [/b]

  10. BBC look east told me the other week its because mortgages are too hard to get.

    A cursory look at FTB vs BTL tells a different story. Theres just as much private stock, but FTB decline has been exactly mirrored by growth in BTL

    Could it be the tories getting rid of MIRAS in the early '90s meaning Landlords can write off interest as an expense whereas FTB's cant?

    Or snot gobbler brown getting rid of the Dividend tax credit and making stock market based pensions far less competitive?

    Or the property porn programme after property porn programme encouraging every moron and his dog to become a landlord?

    Or both parties guaranteeing returns by generous housing benefit payments to landlords?

    You decide.

    It's easier to answer than that! There has been a massive lending bubble brought about by lower than prudent interest rates since around 2000. Add to that the rediculous number of times salary, lenders have been willing AND ALLOWED by little or no regulation, to lend us poor idiots. Hey presto: people borrow more and more, pushing up prices at a lightening pace believing they can afford it! Speculators join in, after seeing heavy price movements. Capital flies away from actual wealth producing to just exchanging/buying homes and sometimes building boxes with a few bricks on some mud. The price of muddy fields rockets to over £1million per acre, where u are allowed to force in up to 25 homes/boxes or even 8 executive homes/boxes with 5 beds and double garage.

    We then all experience over 15 years the largest house price hike in history, when compared with inflation. The 1970's bubble was nothing because inflation raged at up to 26% under Labour - yes, I said 26% inflation in 1975. Some of you may not have been here, but believe me, if houses rose 25% the same year, wages rose 25% and inflation was 26%, then there was no real HP rises. Just an appalling dent in our international competitiveness, followed by a flatlining economy...drone drone..oh, the same old story but with inflation/stagflation. They thought it marvellous to get inflation back under 10%pa with a Lib/Lab pact.

    "When I were a lad.....it was 2.25 x income down building society with a 10% deposit or forget it. There were leaflets about saving up the deposit carefully at every branch. I remember thinking of going to work in a bank/BS because employess would get hugely discounted mortgages of about 5% instead of around 8% or more, like most people paid. Prices were broadly 3 x the average income. Now they are 5-10 depending where u live. The HPcrash of 1989-94 STARTED WHEN HOUSE PRICES REACHED AN ALL TIME HIGH OF 5.5 X AVERAGE INCOME. PUT THAT IN YOUR MODERN SPLIFF AND SMOKE IT. YEP. IT STINKS!"

  11. The QE money went buying Govt bonds, no QE = higher interest rates to get others to buy them instead,so the result of QE is lower interest rates at banks and BS, so that businesses and homeowners have cheaper loans, if interest rates were say 5% ie real, it would have meant carnage for the economy, the problem is there is no "free" lunch, the flip side is a devalued pound and lower interest rate for savers, the devalued pound makes everyone in the UK poorer. The problem with QE is its addictive and it doesn't really work, printing pieces of paper does not make anyone actually richer, as Haverstein found out in Germany in 1923.

    QE - "They know not what they do." It has been clear for a long time that the B of E is a veiled shambles talking up QE using long words with little substance to back its policy. It has no real advantage and many downsides. It should certainly be halted.

  12. A good article, by an European think-tank.

    Apologies if posted here already, but I couldn't find it. And thanks to "pete green" for posting it originally on the HPC News blog a few days ago.

    http://centreforeuropeanreform.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/why-british-prosperity-is-hobbled-by.html

    Genrally excellent article addressing many of the issues 'that dare not speak their name in UK government circles'.

  13. I've been trying to find out what the historical average yield on 10 year UK Gilts from first issuance and also from post-WWII. When Gilts are discussed am I right in thinking that the 10 year is the generally accepted reference point? I've checked the UK Debt Management Office and othe sites on the web with no luck.

    If anybody can help i'd appreciate it muchly.

    http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/57294000/jpg/_57294047_newgraphweb.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/in-pictures-16090055&h=549&w=976&sz=54&tbnid=Z1jz2HpvONvXNM:&tbnh=69&tbnw=122&prev=/search%3Fq%3Duk%2Bgilt%2Byields%2Bchart%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=uk+gilt+yields+chart&usg=__rVkVAyezX86iqYuLPlyslmiWlbo=&docid=x3mHtaOcAhXgRM&hl=en&sa=X&ei=acgnUfGVNIaZ0QXcyoCYBw&sqi=2&ved=0CGgQ9QEwCg&dur=188

    Try that chart - GILTS are at a low point - tends to suggest they will go the opposite way shortly - especially when banks are suggesting they won't buy UK gilts anymore.

  14. I don't recognise them, they're the reason we're in this mess. They enabled the banking system, made houses unaffordable, inflated the money supply whilst increasing taxes etc so I don't recognise them.

    If you take this view, then I presume you can't bring yourself to vote? I don't blame you. The only problem is they are your rulers whether you like it or not. If only people would not vote for the next best lie that suits their own interests.....ah, just dreaming again.

    In fact I have atheory that suggest we make our politicians lie. Oh no, impossible I hear you say. Well, will anyone vote for a politician who is brutally truthful about our situation? I doubt it. So the sad fact must be that we want to vote for people who tell us a nice story; have a honeymoon period; feel a little less happy later; it turns to disappointment; wait for an election to have a go at them; hope to vote for another who promises 'to sort it out' and who will 'change' direction: hope comes back.... in fact delusion

  15. If house prices fall, the banks are bankrupt.

    They can't control everything, but that which they can control, they will. House prices are not going to be "allowed" to have a major nominal fall while the banks are in charge via political donations.If they are defeated by global issues, that is another matter, but there will be no significant increase in housing supply and they will do everything they can to avoid an interest rate rise.

    It brings me to the other massive mistake of successive govts....the conversion of Building Societies to banks was nothing short of stupid and blinkered. Allowing the merger of some of our largest banks has been a very stupid anti-competitive move and very dangerous. We need 20-25 mainstream large banks and many building societies plus another 50 smaller ones trying to get in on the act. If we had this then there would be no bailing out banks which decide to have a casino life. They can go to the wall with their shareholders, during a financial crisis - rare enough, but why do our politicians and regulators never learn from history? It was obvious to me that bank mergers were foolish when we had so few big banks in the first place.

  16. It's only the 6 monthly January& July self employed /partners/Co tax payments that cause the up blip. I should not get excited atall. The Feb borrowing will carry on adding to our immense national debt, nearing £1.2TRILLION.

  17. Nail. Head. Great post, thanks for sharing your insight and opinions plummet.

    I must admit my faith in a HPC has been waining lately somewhat but news like this quickly restores that faith. I was beginning to get tired of the governments constant meddling but it appears their hand may be forced. I really hope the bond vigilantes turn on the UK despite what this will entail for many, the fact is, the majority have had it too good for too long at the expense of others, ftb's and savers.

    This Govt is a sad mirage of partial success....The smoke is clearing and the mirrors beginning to reflect. It's only a matter of time I'm afraid.

  18. My sister rents a 3 bed house (built around 8 years ago).

    Last Saturday her landlord informs her that he wants to put the rent up from £570 a month to £695 a month! :blink: He cited the fable that 'private rents are skyrocketing!'. :rolleyes: At the drop of a hat, my sister verbally gives him a month's notice.

    Cue panic by the landlord. :lol: Come Sunday morning, he's offered a modest increase of £30 to £600 / month, which my sister agrees to.

    Apparently, he had shown her the mortgage statement for the property. Payments are around £625 / month for it.

    So he has been making a loss of £55 / month on this house :blink: ( going down to £25 / month shortly). Yes, BTL is a great 'investment'. :lol:

    He has other rental property that may or may not be plugging the shortfall for this house. Apparently, he wants to sell the house my sister is renting in 2014. He probably thinks that the value of the house will increase next year (he was going to put it up for sale in 2012 but never did).:D

    Well done your sister! In fact, private rentals have peaked. Some properties sitting about for ages around here in West Sussex. Often seeing them remarketed at a lower rent inevitably saying 'new' when they are not. Here is one that never sells and been on the market on and off for 4 years - rented a couple of times and now for sale and rent at the same time. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-37105865.html AND RENT http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-27059878.html AND YES, IT IS THE SAME PROPERTY. Builder did it up and it never sold - too greedy so it sits there year after year. He is not the only one.

  19. It's like government sponsored teaser rates.......

    It'll be a shock when base rates start to go up!!

    YOU KNOW THE OLD SAYING, "IF SOMETHING IS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE......"

    Steer well clear - the bond market is beginning to crumble for Britain. The signs are now there. The pretence will soon be revealed and the weight of QE and endless overborrowing will soon fall on all our heads.

  20. Gilt yields will rise until the BOE signal more unexpected QE (pretty inevitable given the 100bn deficit).

    If they don't then rates rise and we get hpc, a big drop in GDP and clear out the zombies. So they will keep printing away the pound in your pocket until the gilt market really revolts!

    Interesting times.

    Putting off the pain of having interest rates rise to a normal level is the only thing propping up the apparent calm we are witnessing. The Govts claim to have done anything useful to the month on month deficit will be in tatters very shortly if there is any truth that our Gilts may not be bought at debt auction. Rates on govt debt wil rise and the bond implosion will begin - touted by many already. It will happen anyway whether it be now or whether this be the warning shot. Taxing more will not solve this crisis either. “A nation trying to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle”. Winston Churchill -

    Unfortunately Cameron, Osborne and Clegg do NOT understand the seriousness of the debt problem we face. Over the 5 yrs of Coalition they will have added another £700 BILLION to our national debt bringing it to a record £1.4 TRILLION. The only lid on it at present is 300 lows in base rates and a bond market prepared to lend at a rediculous 2%. Mrs Thatcher had to pay up to 12-15% for some bonds to be sold! The sad fact is that the last nearly 3 yrs have been a complete waste. We needed to put up interest rates and slash public spending in a draconian fashion in 2010. It would have been horrible and caused widespread pain, but it will now be worse and eventually be forced upon us. We would have seen a big fall in living standards - no doubt. But we would have arrested the debt situation and brought about a full HPC, requiring the young population to earn a good deal less to get a roof over their heads. Others may have been hurt by loss of imaginary paper equity and worse still many would have lost their homes by foreclosure and and negative equity. That is the price of this debt!! It is totally out of control and remains so. It is a lie for the govt to say 'we have got rid of a quarter of our debt already'. They are adding to it at an alarming rate and it is on an upward trajectory again. The monthly overspend (structural debt) is being falsely hailed as having been slashed by a quarter, when in fact there was so much debt bought back by the B of E printing press under QE, that they pretended to then dish out interest of £37billion on this imaginary process. If you or I did anything like it, they would all shout 'FRAUD' and send you to prison. QE is also a fraud on every saver and pensioner in this country.

    Forget the sham Labour/Tory debate about how quickly spending should be cut. It's NOT really being cut despite reductions in spend in the public sector - BECAUSE OUR DEBTS ARE RISING TOO FAST. True - jobs are being created in the private sector as they fall away in the public sector. SADLY THIS RAY OF SUNLIGHT is insufficient to save us from our debts. Employment is at a record high because of our population and the fact that potential retirees are NOT retiring in the same numbers as usual. The number of youth unemployed is at a virtual record as a result. A large proportion of 'new jobs' are low paid part time jobs with little security. GROWTH IS NOT THERE TO PAY FOR OUR BURGEONING DEBT. JAPAN'S STORY WILL TELL YOU WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU JUST BORROW AND HAVE ZERO INTEREST RATES. 20 YRS OF SLOW OR NO GROWTH - FOLLOWED BY A TOTAL LOSS OF COMPETITIVENESS. What a terrible outlook and all because no one has the strength to tackle it with any sort of determination. Let's hope I am wrong.

  21. what with the post office pension pot...SPENT....next year all those pensioners will be paid from NEW borrowing.

    Add in the money stolen from the BoE.

    Whose pension cash are they going to steal next term?

    With so called special factors reducing apparent borrowing, the real headline should be, "Borrowing rises sharply in 2012/3". The B of E has made up a fabel - they are paying the govt interest on debt it has issued to itself. Funny how much money you can find when you just make it upon a computer screen.

    Real Govt borrowing figures for 2012/3 are a minimum of 168 Billion Pounds. Therefore there has not been a 25% fall in annual borrowing.

  22. I think there is something wrong in the figure.

    rent2_2482808a.jpg

    Only Greater London is more than £120 and yet the average is £120 :blink:

    It is not actually true atall! The cost of a mortgage on equivalent homes for rent are still actually more even though the interest rates are quite modest (at say 80% LTV). Only in the case of a very small overpriced rental of a flat or studio would there be any truth in it. It takes no account of repair/insurance/general maintenance costs etc. It is bunk in the South East for sure. It does not point out that the most likely scenario is a rise in interest rates at some point and that will bear down on any potential price rise and more likely cause stagnation and continued falls in property prices. Plenty of falls being noticed in my region - eg 'from £600-660k' house is now on for £550. Another was £475k and now on for £425k with one agent or £400-450 with another. etc etc. Another was £575k is now £525k. Another was a staggering £1,350,000 is now £800k and still too much. Another was £300-330k is now £280-£310k. Another was £730k, now £699: another £950k now £850K; another £325 now £299k. In fact I coud go on - there is very long list of reduced prices in the last 6 months in my area of Sussex. There have been very few rises, although perfectly positioned homes will always sell and may have competition amongst buyers.

  23. Definitely worsening, then, but you have to try hard to find this in their press release:

    http://www.rics.org/uk/knowledge/news-insight/press-releases/house-sales-rise-across-the-uk/

    Bless them, the BBC couldn't find it at all...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21385919

    Less buyers and sellers too??? !!! It was the weather again! Leaves on the line etc.....diamond jubilee + 1 celebrations for the summer?

    RICS REPORT - "demand from would-be purchasers has dipped slightly since the start of the New Year, with a net balance of 9% of surveyors suggesting that new buyer enquiries fell during January. This was also accompanied by a slight fall in the number of homes coming up for sale with surveyors suggesting that poor weather may have contributed to the softer figures."

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