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plummet expert

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Everything posted by plummet expert

  1. Commodities are an asset! Use your loaf Hovis! If you mean property is set to fall hard and hard assets such as gold and silver will rise, then you are spot on.
  2. YOU IS BEIN' REAL CLEVER! OF COURSE THE 6 BILLION A YEAR, IS A CUT OF THE ANNUAL STRUCTURAL DEFICIT OF ABOUT £163BN. So still a drop in the ocean. But it will also reduce by 6 billion the amount added to the national debt mountain in a full year too. It is a muddle of two things but they are related and at least people can see just how huge a task it is to have any impact atall on this burgeoning national debt. A cut of $6BN will bearly dent it and in no way stop it increasing towards armageddon. We need to cut about £100bn or more in annual spending to get it under control. Nasty!!
  3. I'm in the Vix. It will be great! Going to double again in the next few months. If you want to see it easily use Yahoofinance and enter VXX in the search tab. No need for popcorn as they take 3D money for a stake in this.
  4. Phhheeeeeeeeewwwww! Got out just in time. The same pieces of land with a few bricks, kitchen, bathroom and living room will soon be worth.....well possibly half.
  5. OMG! These people are crazy giving out 'yields' on BTL and suggesting buying abroad when currency fluctuations are making any plan impossible - implausible!! I was entertained thanks. Think I'll keep on with the gold and silver thanks.
  6. [ Edmund "Ed" Conway, 20:45, Monday 24 May 2010 Britain is at risk of sliding into a Japan-style episode of deflation, and may be even worse-equipped than the Asian country to escape, a Bank of England policymaker has warned.[/indent] Hmm, let me think about this for awhile. No, no need to , I agree with Adam. I agree with Adam too. We are worse-equipped than the Japs - The ONLY reason Japan has been able to raise the borrowed funds it needs month on month despite deflation for over 10 yrs, is that most of it is bought ...by the Japanese ...well, about 75%. They now have a borrowing of over 200%GDP - just a trifle worrying, but still they could always reschedule?? Japs like 1 or 2% bonds in their own currency when their bank rates are zero. The Brits will not buy anything like that %. Neither would any western country. So, if we make it to the land of deflation, then we will find no gilts sold at the auction and its the IMF and even more cuts for us.
  7. Thsi reply is about right. I have family there, but most relatives have moved out. The crime is quite bad. Too many stabbings and shootings and drugs for my liking and they would tell you about it and how it has deteriorated. But the addiscombe side is the better bit and just about walkable to the station. You pays your money and takes your choice. Mine is to wait until the HPC brings the prices down to something near reason.
  8. [so.....do you reckon my money's safe? Yes, of course! Why not offer her a credit default swap or a leveraged short investment instead? so much more fun. A friend of ours who had their house 'valued' by agents in 2007 had it done again very recently. Interesting to find they were told it was over £100k less than before and 'you may be lucky to get that in this market'. If you are a buyer Ea's will say the market is improving slowly, but not a seller be! They will tell you something much nearer the truth, which is that the market is fading quickly under the weight of new property coming on the market and slowing buyer interest. Hmmmmmmh.
  9. Fear is good for Gold. Fear of deflation or inflation will have a similar effect since the desire to buy gold is in order to preserve buying power. During deflation holding cash can have a role but not as against foreign assets. Gold will do better although the headline price may not go up so far. Deflation can apply to the currency more than the price of goods you see for sale at the outset. If we have many currencies competing to devalue (which the Euro/GBP/USD are) that makes it more complicated at first to see what is happening. USUALLY a devalued currency will result in imported inflation. However if the whole world wants to go down the same hole it may appear as deflation first. No doubt the printing presses wil find a way to cause inflation thereafter. If there is a forthcoming 'crash' moment, then it's possible that for a short while gold will fall back, but I doubt for long and not as far as the stockmarket. The usual scenario is that panic selling results in a demand for cash, putting up the USD for a while. Then the fearful cash will find a home with hard assets like gold, silver or platinum. The fear index (VXX) HAS RISEN over 125% in the last few weeks. So watch out!
  10. On all measures I have studied, current HP's are between 33 and 47% too highdepending on area etc. That is a comparison to todays price. What will happen in fact depends on inflation or deflation and real wages. If inflation takes hold then the nominal fall may be at the lowest end of the range or even slightly less. If deflation is in charge, it will be at the higher end of the range and prices may carry on dribbling downwards for years. The price of development land could collapse very sharply causing an initial jolt down. Do not buy shares in building companies; sell them!
  11. You could just use a site like 'Whatmortgage?' and see just about all that is on offer. Mortgage brokers are really only required for complex deals. I do hope no one is doing any just now, what with a HPC on the way.
  12. However, while the systemic effect of increasing the private sector's ability to offset risk was to magnify its appetite for it (to the point where much as with Mr Creosote's gluttonous bulk, it found itself unable to ingest any further), the public sector is in the process of discovering that the private sector is reluctant to be fooled a second time. Fundamentally, to persuade the private sector to roll over its very own delightful legacy, the private sector will wish to see a net reduction in the risk the public sector takes on; it will measure GDP growth against forecast, and cast a beady eye over fiscal overhang. If it doesn't get what it wants, it will (like the petulant child it is) hold its breath until it turns blue. Auctions will be un-covered, yields will rise the way an elephant strapped to a JATO pack would. With far less liquidity on offer, and far less direct and indirect pump-priming (QE and CE alike are inneffective against this trade being flattened out in currencies then commodities), the private sector will find itself exposed to far greater risk than it has priced for (given the choice between boosting demand, and reducing market rates, the public sector will find itself unable to opt for the former). Now we get to the meat of this. The private sector is most exposed to this kind of risk in the one industry so far insulated from the tremors rumbling around the globe since this all began back in May 2007 - our very good friend Insurance, and its tentacles named Pensions, Annuities, and General Underwriting. In this light some insurers are a little more entertaining than others. Some are a little further exposed to EUR-denominateds (sovereign and otherwise), some are a little further exposed to the far East. The thrilling question for the day is - what will Merkel do, the day she realises she must attempt to swallow Allianz, too? Fantastic writing PatricleMan! The fact is the transfer of debt and risk from the private sector banks to the public sector is becoming circular. It's about to blow back on itself. Guess who will pick up the bill? The real economy, the private sector and the taxpayers themselves. Print away or inflate away or have a deflation, but dear govt you will be making us all pay somehow.
  13. I doubt the deficit problem will have been resolved completely by 2015. That would involve absolutely savage cuts in public spending of around 25% over the next two years, which would too difficult to enforce or even get through parliament. It would also mean a very hard bump to the economy. Although it could put us on a road to recovery, it may also damage some sectors greatly. The problem is that the deficit and current national debt which is rising rapidly, are soooooooo biiiiiiiiiig that even cuts of 10% will not stop us ending up like Greece by 2015 - ie with a national debt which is no longer serviceable and which the markets do not believe can ever be paid back. That said, we will be hearing over and again how it came to pass and is in no small part the fault of Brown as chancellor to run such a profligate ship before there was a recession and just how irresponsible that is. Deficits are for recessions and surpluses should arise in the good times - like they were left with in 1997 - let's not forget there WAS a surplus in 1996-7 of £40BILLION. Where did it all go Gordon????!!!!!!!
  14. This I agree is definitely the 'trick' that goes on. EA's expect you to look for comparisons and if they can somehow have properties close by which make another seem a steal they will do. Only way to go is to check the price of sold property in the same postcode or district. Easy to do even on rightmove and use postecodefinder to find whatever you like. The flat here looks as if its in the prestigious 'Drive' ? in Hove. It is pricey but large and is correctly called a mansion flat. I would not pay it but it may be in the £400k bracket in current terms. Doubt it will be for long though! HPC is on the way. Inventory is piling up at a great pace and mortgage lending funding is drying up.
  15. Well, at least a polished turd might make my roses grow. A worthless GILT might be a bit rough on my b..
  16. Yes, and even worse was the rip off to taxpayers of a tax treatment to 'holiday' second homes. There they have for many years just set off their mortgage 'loss' from the lack of rental income against their own income tax! Buying a second home at other taxpayers expense and then expecting to sell at very little CGT!!! No wonder 50% of Devon homes are holiday homes and locals are priced out!! Sounds much like the MP's second home outrage. Outrageous and stopped by Darling in the last budget - the only thing he got right poor fellow. I have personally told Cameron and Osborne to keep that as Darling left it.
  17. Obarmy wants to make tanks out of gold? ...Thought so. Therefore he needs to engineer a big fall so there will be less printing to do and less trees to cut down and the carbon footprint suitably contained. Me thinks Gold has a great future ahead. There may be a short term fall or even a sharp one if the Dow and Ftse collapse. But then it will be the rising phoenix along with silver. The biggest bubble will then be gold and silver. Deflation did someone say? It will turn to inflation even if it starts that way with all this monetised imaginary money around. Read 'The Market oracle' inflation megatrend article.
  18. I don't know what they are whining about. The proposal on CGT is to simply put back the approximate rates which existed until 2007 and to which most people were subject when they bought second properties or buy to let in the first place. It was a massive surprise that Labour of all parties put in an 18% rate!! The fact is the country is skint and those with more than one property should expect to help out if they sell their asset. I have no problem with those that create and benefit from wealth, but there does have to be some taxation to help those less fortunate. There are all sorts of reliefs, so the moaning is even less attractive frankly. Otherwise, I would suggest a 60% tax rate on all income over £150k instead. That was the rate on a very much lower real terms income until 1988. I say this but I am no leftie. Just thinking of the country bankrupted by Labour. We all need to be part of putting it right and the wealthier should help more.
  19. It's nout to do with HIPS. It started a couple of months ago noticeably and has not stopped since. In my area its 379 in last 7 days for 5 miles and 999 for 10 miles from me. 7 days is a better indicator!
  20. I agree. The IMF are so bold as to discount the strong possibility that the Euro may not exist a year from now!! The German unilateral move to ban shorting the Euro may have been a clever policy which both upsets the market and the French at the same time! Me thinks they want their Deutchemark back.
  21. Our Gilts will not be a safe haven for long. Do not be tempted to buy them!
  22. THE US PROPERTY CRASH IS IN NO WAY OVER. There are 1 in 8 adults and 1 in 4 kids in the great USA living on govt food stamps. That's why Walmart are worried. The only good reason for a small upsurge in Consumer spending there recently has been that so many are simply defaulting on their mortgages and living mortgage and rent free until moved on, that dispoable income has temporarily risen. The Eurozone crash is beginning and the US will be next in the frame.
  23. I have not heard this exact theory before. The suggestion that to cover all known credit and revolving credit (credit cards and Govt borrowing /printing) gold will NOW need to reach $15,000 per ounce, has not been said by anyone else has it?!! It is said that throughout history this has happened and he demonstrates it. The big however is whether we are entering a deflationary period or an inflationary period - if the latter then his theory is more likely. Peter Schiff has said he expects gold to match the Dow at some point in the crisis afetr another crash we expect soon and pointed to a $2500 to $6000 price. This has happened also in the past. My take on this is that I very strongly believe that Gold and Silver will explode in the next 12-18 months as this crisis unravels, BUT they may experience a fall along with everything else first if there is a big crash. After that, I am with this theory. Howver, I don't think they will fall nearly as far by % as the markets geberally before cash will come to prop them up big time. The USD will also rise very strongly at first as everything is sold and turned to cash then hard assets.
  24. I should just talk to them and see what they really want or need and try and come to some agreement. Just remember no LL wants a blank period however short, because it takes many months to make it up even on a hogher rent. They have to pay the agent some finding fee etc for a new T. So if you are reasonable you will have the advantage.
  25. In the private rented sector, you should be getting an assured shorthold tenancy. These usually start with a fixed term of 6 or 12 months. At the end of that period it is NOT LEGALLY NECESSARY to sign a new agreement. If you do not sign for a new fixed term then the tenancy continues as an asured shorthold PERIODIC tenancy until either the tenant gives one months notice to the Landlord OR the Landlord gives TWO months notice to the tenant. If you sign for a new fixed term, then unless you want to agree, there would no legal entitlement for a Landlord to give notice during any further fixed term period (except min 2 months to coincide with end of fixed term) so you would get the new fixed term period without bother. THEREFORE It is legal DURING any fixed term to actually have no provision for the tenant to give notice atall - if there are any notice provisions for tenant they can be limited like your lanadlord is requesting. After that it should be one month. First consider whether landlord may give notice to you - is it a long term let and Landlord has it for investment, not just away for work elsewhere? If investment, then they do not want it empty! Consider suggesting that no further agreement is needed or saying you won't agree to a further agreement which limits your notice entitlement in this way. Notice of 1 month tenant, 2 for landlord will apply from now on AUTOMATICALLY IF NO NEW AGREMENT IS SIGNED. Many agents will have ypou believ that anew agreement must be signed and charge you for it. But that is not true. I am a lawyer. They cannot make you sign one, but the landlord retains the right to give you 2 months notice - keep paying the rent though!
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