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plummet expert

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  1. I have noticed today that some local properties I have been keeping an eye on have had substantial cuts to their prices. A couple of EG's. A 3 bed detached which started at £425k is today reduced to £350k. Another - 4 detached was £599,950, is today on for £550k. Several homes- even large ones have suddenly appeared for rent aswell as being on sale. Loads more have come on this week. Not many SOLD boards around here anymore. How are your areas going? Often find evidence on the ground is better than just statistics, or what the Nationwide would like to have you believe!
  2. On all international measures the UK house prices are way above the trend line. The trend line average has been seen since 1999. I don't care what the figures are currently. The anecdotal eveidence is that houses are much more than any of these graphs show. In sussex an ordinary terraced house is on average about £200k still over 6 x an average income. A semi is up to 10x. Incomes in the private sector have fallen for many already. Only the cushioned public sector has yet to adjust to the financial reality. In the north the mutiples are less, so averages don't tell the whole story.
  3. These people who may be expecting to fund retirement from the sale of a second home will have bought it many years ago, when they knew that CGT was replicating the income tax rates. So if that is put back, then it's the same as they thought it would be all along. Just as with all investments and retirement pots there is some taxation involved whether in a fund or at the realisation. People should think of the country and not just themselves at this time. We have a war on debt to fight and all of us should pull together to have it over with as soon as possible.
  4. Good idea. I have already told my MP and the PM of my same view as yours. I will let the Chancellor, David Laws and Vince Flexcable know. The city are not in touch on this. It is pure self interest pouring out. The necessity is to pay down the deficit. The property market is hyped up and is adjusting down anyway - all the signs appearing now. It has been distorting our economy for a long time. Residential lending is crying out for sensible regulation.
  5. The new USD is being designed as we speak and various designs are sitting in that tupperware box in Obama's office, next to key for Fort Knox.
  6. IT IS NON-BUSINESS ASSETS WHICH THE PROPOSED INCREASE WILL APPLY TO AS I UNDERSTAND IT. On that I would agree with the Coalition that second home owners and BTL folk should contribute more when they sell. These assets do not produce wealth for the wider economy. In fact their tax concessions support unrealistic house prices which is undesirable.
  7. Interesting to see that it's the two banks most likely to collapse in the 'next phase' of the crunch coming soon, which are under discussion here regarding residential lending. They both have massive commecial property loans needing refinancing over the next year (£hundreds of millions), a large proportion of which are already in negative equity territory. If the money markets stop them, then......Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Bump. RIP
  8. The world of financial jelly has arrived! There is so much just hiding from the radar. Ocasionally it squeezes out and the markets wobbbbbbbllllee. One day the bubble pump will stop working and then the balloon will fly round the room. 'Tired man with money pump seen in BoE' is the headline.
  9. Well, 'he would say that wouldn't he'. The fact is there are banks now struggling with impending implosions on their Commercial property lending. That lending has been as barking and out of control as residential was in the USA, but actually here in the UK. In 2006 I was offered ludicrous loans in 7 figs without any more than a 5 % dep. When its that easy, it's time to leave the party. So many of their loans are 'under water' and some for billions that they cannot be refinanced atall. The news has totally failed to pick up on this yet. But YOU MAY SEE A COUPLE OF SERIOUS BANKS GO UNDER here in the next 12 months. They cannot be fully bailed out as there is no capacity for the Boe to do it in full. There are a number of triggers waiting to cause the next big panic. The Money supply M3 in the US is shrinking rapidly, just as it did in 1932. No printing or borrowing is stopping it apparently. See Telegraph thread on this site. These are all the signs brewing. Falling consumer spending today. A bank in Spain last week. Plenty lurking and one will trigger the big roller coast down. You can be sure there are some very worried people in the city and at the Boe as the risk of another major crash taking down some banks is now very high. EA's are hardly going to consider this with you. Not their role. As the banana skins are multiplying the chance of crossing the kitchen floor without a slip become remote. Put your money into several banks and buy some gold and silver on the next down day.
  10. Are GolmanSachs handling a new 'Second home collateralised investment vehicle for disgruntled antiCGT supporters'? ....Only a rumour then. You can bet they'll be betting on the fire sale coming if there really is one. Might be a lot of bluff and bluster. Either way, Mr Cameron is right to proceed with the raising of this tax.
  11. Bubbles mean the crash is coming. So I'm even more bear now I've read your thoughts. The next one will be big and lasting. Your decision will be vindicated. Ea's will never tell you the market is tanking. If you try to sell they may tell you more about the difficult market ahead. Here in Sussex the sold signs are disappearing fast. The sheer volume of houses coming on the market is starting to pull it down. Fear is entering the economy. London may be last to go into this. So sit tight!
  12. Let's see. We need to cut the annual over-spending by £163Billion which is adding to national debt every hour, every day. Then we need to pay off the national debt which is about £893Billion now. The annual amount paid in taxes to Govt Politburo is currently £460Billion. So for year one, if we cancelled all govt spending (impassable -nothing's impossible) we still have shorfall of £596 Billion....and a lot of dead and starving people and about 6 million unemployed and awful strikes. That means in year 2 spending would rise exponentially..........Errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr NO! NOW YOU SEE WHAT A MESS WE ARE IN, GREECE, PORTUGAL, ITALY, IRELAND, AND USA, are all in it too. Some in denial.
  13. Well, it's all 'bull' in a new bear market.
  14. Well it won't be the CGT 'wot dunnit'. They may not sell in the event for all we know. It will be their decision to sell for fear of the market in the first place. Almost all 2nd home owners and BTL'ers will have bought when the rate of CGT was the sort of rate the Coalition wish to return to. It was only 18% from 2007. If you did but anything after that, there will be little if any 'gain' to talk about. It's just a great big whinge from the right wing of the Cons. I agree with the middle ground and think the Coalition should go ahead as planned to raise CGT. Remember: 'Dear Chief secretary, I'm afraid there's no money left.'
  15. Oh! I never would have guessed. Perhaps the analysts at Nomura Bank and others have been reading the tea leaves? Their palm reading was not up to much was it?!
  16. They know nothing you don't, but they want to profit on day trades. It's just volatile. One day means nothing. The volatility last time round started in about July/August 2007 and took a few months to end with lots of heavy down days and few on the up. You don't always see a massive fall on one day, 1987 being the exception and the steepest one day fall ever in the UK. I think it likely there will be a severe decline in various 'shock days' over a few months soon, where the ups are quite weak.
  17. I would not believe the Wall St journal on this matter. Someone probably wants to cause a little fall out so they can buy more at a better price - a bank perhaps? They have been caught out giving contrary advice to clients than they give themselves. That's the sort of manipulation these matters are subject to IMHO.
  18. Lord Lister you are right. There is no Ponzi scheme in Gold! If anything there is eveidence that Govts have tried to hold it back for fear that it's rise is a reflection on the falling value of fiat currency. Adjusted for inflation Gold would be above $2400 now. It will rise dramatically with fear and who hoards what and what amounts are on the planet will then have little to do with it. It will act as money because the paper money has gone into a hole and is seen as ....paper. A ponzi scheme is something like Berni Madoff was running, where investors are teased in by imposssibly good returns and the administrator (Madoff) just spends your money and gets a very ordinary return on the rest whilst producing false accounts showing something better. He runs into trouble only when too many withdrawals means he cannot return the investors capital - as in the crash. Now it is the case an ETF which is actually labelled ETN (Exchange traded note) need not hold the physical substance, whilst an ETF should be. If you have physical gold and there is any kind of scam about the ETN's then it will put UP the gold price and Silver the same. Is that what this reference to Ponzi is about? I recommend holding the physical substance or use Goldmoney.com to do it for you. I believe all of you out there should have a reasonable amount of gold or silver in this climate. It's just not safe to rely on paper currency or shares.
  19. Well, a lot of people left and are still leaving Ireland. There will be strikes here by winter over cuts and people will consider where in the world they may bet better off. Thing is, there will be litttle choice in the western world as they are all down the same hole. Australia's dollar has appreciated so much against the pound and their property market is so pumped up, you would find it very expensive even if you had the points to get in. Houses are very cheap in the USA. Try Chicago - possibly up to 90% lower than 2007, the place now being a ghost outpost.
  20. John Redwood is no fool. But the essential point being missed is that the reduction in CGT to 18% (a rate well below that which the Cons left in 1997) was a recent change made by Darling. To put back what existed just over 2 years ago will not damage anything. Most assets bought and subject to any meaningful CGT would have been bought when it was 40% top rate. It will not damage the economy to put those rates back! It is now essential to reduce the deficit to save the economy. So those with the most must assist more than others. You do not necessarily have to sell the asset and there is rollover relief and business asset relief and annual allowances and even indexation allowance if held before 1982. It's not some supertax. I'm no leftie, but now is not the moment to moan about this. IF there was no CGT then wealthy folks have their accountants make income appear as capital gains to pay no, or less tax. That's why it exists and why Chancellor Lawson intelligently made it match the income tax rates up to 40% in 1987 or 8. (UNFORTUNATELY he let a bubble play havoc with us about then too and hey presto shares then property crashed thereafter)
  21. Just think, we'll be able to export things made of plastic to china! Except, they've tied their Yuan to the USD. That's not fair is it? It's cheating. You will get no notice of any serious collapse. The only inkling will be volatile markets as we have now. These started from July 2007 onwards before the last big crash - the one which Gordo stopped by encouraging the entire world to print loadsamoney and borrow his way out (which of course he said you cannot do in 1997) and now it's all coming home to roost. A mega crash is now a serious possibility. You will need to buy gold or silver to protect your wealth in that event. (Currencies are competeting to devalue at the moment so the picture is not clear). Buy agriculture shares if it goes bang. It's likely to start with a stockmarket crash first, followed by all the cash coming out of markets into USD pushing up the dollar value, but temporarily. There may even be a fallback in gold at first. But then the cash will start to buy gold and silver big time - a second crash will not leave many wanting to buy back into stocks and a lot of fear will arise. A new balloon will be created (OH JOY!). You then decide when to convert that gold or silver back into the pound.
  22. London is a great City of which we should be rightly proud. It will be still be there after the crisis is over and will still be great. However, you'd have to be brave ( and very rich!) to pay £20m for a new flat there! I expect someone with loads of kids on housing benefit will end up there placed by a london borough.
  23. Roger BOOTLE has often been right in the past, but I don't think his calls on the current crisis have worked out. Deflation it may appear to be at first, but my tip is inflation will take hold making it stagflation. Before that the markets are looking like they want to have a new rollercoaster down hill. The graphs looks so similar from 1929 to 1931 when comapared to now it is quite shocking. Same for house price with blip upwarsd before harsh fall in 1989-1991 - identical graph shape so far. The big HPC is on the way. Cause - sovereign debt crisis decimating markets and currencies.
  24. On industrial metals I agree. Get shorting metals like copper right away as they will fall substantially between now and Xmas. But the silver gold equation is sooooooooo different. There are clear signs of detachment from the direction of the stockmarket, which if correct signals a big upswing on the back of fear as the market crumbles.
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