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plummet expert

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  1. I have been a member of this site for nearly 10 years.I am 44.

    Sold in 2005 in London. Bought 2009 in Edinburgh. So for somewhere to live we are in OK shape.

    HOWEVER......................................

    On the pension front we are shafted:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2013/apr/23/falling-annuity-rates-cost-retirement -> 3% annuity rates mean to get an income of 25k at 65 need to have a £750k pension pot.

    Unfortunately I have my own business, should have been a Doctor/Police Man/MP etc etc Wife isnt working but I have told her she can only get a job with a final salary pension! I have used all my money for the last 10 years to try and build the business, pay employers NI and keep people off the dole!

    So I can either try and put away say £3k a month for 20 years and end up with about 2k a month income (and lord knows what the annuity rates will be by then). Or get some buy to lets (say £600k worth), subsidise them to say £1k a month, and end up with a £2k a month income in 20 years. BTW I dont have 3k a month to do that anyway!!

    I havent done the proper maths on this, and having rental properties is undoubtably a hassle/job etc.

    But tell me why I am wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    QE should be banned.

    Public sector jobs should advertise what the annual pension provision is worth along with the salary. ie "this job pays 35k a year and the pension is worth 15k a year".

    I would agree that doing some of yur own pension is a good thing - the tax break is overated and you can often do better than pay vast charges in some scheme to get tax relief - you don't have to buy an annuity.

    Before you go BTL - just think about the bond market - it;'s oveheating and that will leas to one thing - musch higher rates within 2-3 yrs. More troubel for govt and all of us. http://tomwinnifrith.com/articles/2987/why-uk-house-prices-must-crash READ IT

  2. It is knobber attitudes that believe the reply might even touch the original question, that typifies why Conservatives will not get within 100 yards of number 10, or 11, come 2015.

    It is the Govts greatest mistake. It is 'so not Conservative.Com'. It has alienated many already. the end of the piece is telling: 'All borrowers in the scheme will need to have at least a 5% deposit and pass eligibility tests to ensure they can afford the mortgage, including in a situation where interest rates rise. If this is actually true then none of these mortgages should be granted - no one CAN afford 4 x their income at noral interest rates!!! , with a 20% extra loan hiding away, but ready to cost you more in 5 yrs time. It will keep silly prices higher than they should be and prevent the market making homes affordable. How on earth does that help? :huh:

  3. Just stumbled across this bloke after reading his pro-Thatcher piece. The more I read...

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Coleman

    In 2007 he published The Best is Yet to Come. The book forecast the continued growth in the Irish economy as well as a sustainable construction Industry for the years ahead. As of 2011, Ireland was in deep recession with the virtual collapse of the construction Industry, rising unemployment and zero growth rate throughout the economy. On his late night talk show, "Coleman at Large", he has repeatedly stated that his predictions are still valid and that he is looking forward to 2020. He has not expanded on this opinion. Late in 2009, Coleman published "Back from the Brink" in which Coleman prescribed policies that he argued would accelerate economic recovery in Ireland and the world, largely identical with the policies he had advocated before the economic collapse. One of these policies included multi-generational mortgages as a way to spread Ireland's debt burden over time.

    <<<<Couldn't really make this up!

    Multi-Generational Mortgages!! This man is a loon! He cannot seriously advocate something so stupid. The only possible effect would be to gradually push up prices again until the buffer is reached. We need to control prices by using lending policy, building policy and even rental policy to promote sustainable price structures. Germany have managed it. Why can't we?

  4. Hilarious isn't it? People who work hard and pay tax have long subsidised people who don't and helped them to live in houses that the taxpayers themselves can't afford. Now prudent sensible taxpayers will also subsidise people who stupidly take on a dangerous risk.

    Whatever you do under this (or any) government, don't do the right thing! :angry:

    It is incredible! Now we find 120% mortgages offered by Lloyds, Halifax and C & G. Has no one in govt learnt anything?! I suggest all write to your MP's at once. These mortgages are only available to current customers which means they will help the mortgaged up middle to move even higher and at the risk of the taxpayer. They should be outlawed and I thought such things were being stopped. NUTS, NUTS NUTS.

  5. Take a look. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22219382 It's no surprise that we are downgraded again. In theory it means UK Plc is a greater risk for borrowing and should be charged a higher rate. It hasn't yet filtered through, but the law of gravity means that despite all QE and other efforts to avoid a fall, it is on the way. The bond market is becoming very stressed. Many funds have already dumped bonds and others are quietly trying to do so. What doea that tell you? :lol:

  6. If I'm reading the chart right the sentiment is ahead of prices during upturns and overly pessimistic on the down. However, it isn't that far off the ONS and would suggest that their number could come in at circa +5% annual by the spring end. And indeed sentiment has gained confidence as the spring has progressed.

    It will soon flounder. Its phoney money chasing phoney prices. The govt is sustaining house prices and it is barely working even with historic low rates. The bond market is tightening and will burst within 12 months. The Eurozone continues to be in crisis and the govts are in denial most of the time. Ireland is in deep s***, which people seem to have discounted but its rearing its ugly head. The PIIGs are all in it and pulling down the French, the Benelux countries which are all going into reverse and shoWing house price falls. We are next but the most stubborn, with an idiot for a Chancellor. What other country tries to pump up PROPERTY from a start point of a clearly overpriced house market? The south is a continuing bubble and London is to be renamed Barking-on-Thames.

  7. As title.

    In the last week alone there appears to have been an unusual number of props on rightmove that have suddenly gone 'under offer' and a smaller number gone 'sstc'.

    Is this happening in your area too? Easter hols? Budget/Homebuy effect? FLS?

    or is it just my local agents bluffing (h/t SYNT).

    It's not just 1 or 2 it's perhaps around 10% of the entire unsold stock in my area (20+ out of 290) and it's across all price bands right the way up the scale.

    Thoughts?

    Not noticed anything like that near me. We will have to wait and see number of mortgage approvals actually rising before this or other anecdotes means a thing. Last figures showed a small drop in approvals. Spring bounce is subdued in my view, although a great deal of effort is going into suggesting the property market 'is on the move' by vested interests.

    The truth is that prices can only reflect ability to borrow and confidence. If the government allows people to borrow 4 and 5 times their salary then they will borrow that amount - especially at artificially low rates. How that party will end is obvious - in tears.

    It will be borrowing against all advice from anyone with any knowledge of the effect, the FSA, many economists - notice how quiet they are about the new FFL scheme and the Gov throwing money at the house market. They should be getting our manufacturing base back, not creating a minI boom for pre-election. The only consequence is that when the wind changes, it will be much colder. IDIOTS

  8. Thanks for posting it - brought it to my attention. If it goes much lower and seems to be trending I may sell to cash in my gains and wait for an opportunity to buy back in.

    A big manipulation downwards is now in progress. Those evil banks are at it and they will KNOW just when to say BUY to their zillionaire investors , who in turn will pay vast feees and profits to them, as the banks piggy away themselves on the same disgusting dish at everyone elses expense. ....LOL :lol:

  9. They believe they have control and can print to infinity and it not cause a major problem..... A dangerous belief.

    They are all dangerous, cannot know their economic history and will...in fact already are, causing serious distortions in the economy. I have pointed it out many times on here. Osborne & Carney will not escape the truth about monetary inflation and low rates. History will Judge them very badly for this. Mark my words.

    The implosion of the bond market in western economies is on the way. The signs are now in place.

  10. Nothing to do with the £, I think.

    I know a couple in London who bring in £145k gross. They have a cramped 2 bed apartment, and moved into her parents' 5 bed house to raise their two toddlers. They receive and pay rent. Still finding it tight.

    Funny that! If you earn 50K or more you are, according to HMRC, in the top 10% of earners in the uk.

    £100k pa in the 'sticks' is a fine income. The only fly in the ointment is the price of houses.

  11. chris martenson agrees.you're in good company

    I have it on good authority that there is a very good chance that the bond market will implode in the next 6 months or so. It will end with much higher rates for sovereign debt. There are some major funds that have already sold not 10% not 50% not 70% but actually 100% of their bond holdings. Some serious investors think the 30 yr cycle of bonds on the up is OVER. The effect may not hit stocks too hard, but some correction is due. Gold is tanking currently, but it may see a turnround soon.

  12. Are you suggesting the unemployed should march deep into the remotest, effectively uninhabited countryside off the off-chance there may be a very much temporary, seasonal washing up job?

    Are you saying their time and effort wouldn't be better spent searching for work nearer to home in the towns and cities that are commutable from their home? What would they do with their existing accommodation? Give it up for a temporary job and then find themselves homeless when the season ends?

    Are there no unemployed people in the countryside who couldn't take this job?

    ccc sees an ad for one job and suddenly had the solution to the employment difficulties of 9 million economically inactive people.

    You are IDS and I claim my £5.

    I expect the 'jobs' pay £52 a week after deducting acomodation costs.....£1 pw less than JSA after housing benefit paid!

  13. SSTC is not a sale.

    when the house is sold, and appears on LR/property price websites then you can consider it sold. but as that data can take a number of months to come through, its a bull and hope until then really.

    watch right move with property bee, howm any properties in your search have

    "21st february gone SSTC"

    "2nd april Gone to Avaliable"

    and so on. there is 1000's of things that can stop a house sale, from finance, to survey to mupet vendors etc. and if they are really getting sold, then its the last of the good credit sheeple who know no better, there will only be the uncreditworthy and the people waiting for a crash left

    Osborne the buble popper. It will go bang! Southern Euro crisis is steadily becoming the mid Euro crisis......

  14. http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/netherlands-next-chip-to-fall.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+(Mish's+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis)

    '

    Most attention lately has been on Cyprus, Spain, and Italy. Long-time troubles have been brewing in Portugal and I have an update coming up shortly.

    First consider Underwater: The Netherlands Falls Prey to Economic Crisis.

    The Netherlands, Berlin's most important ally in pushing for greater budgetary discipline in Europe, has fallen into an economic crisis itself. The once exemplary economy is suffering from huge debts and a burst real estate bubble, which has stalled growth and endangered jobs.

    "Underwater" is a good description of the crisis in a country where large parts of the territory are below sea level. Ironically, the Netherlands, widely viewed as a model economy, is facing the kind of real estate crisis that has only affected the United States and Spain until now. Banks in the Netherlands have also pumped billions upon billions in loans into the private and commercial real estate market since the 1990s, without ensuring that borrowers had sufficient collateral.

    Private homebuyers, for example, could easily find banks to finance more than 100 percent of a property's price. "You could readily obtain a loan for five times your annual salary," says Scheepens, "and all that without a cent of equity." This was only possible because property owners were able to fully deduct mortgage interest from their taxes.

    Instead of paying off the loans, borrowers normally put some of the money into an investment fund, month after month, hoping for a profit. The money was to be used eventually to pay off the loan, at least in part. But it quickly became customary to expect the value of a given property to increase substantially. Many Dutch savers expected that the resale of their homes would generate enough money to pay off the loans, along with a healthy profit.

    No nation in the euro zone is as deeply in debt as the Netherlands, where banks have a total of about €650 billion in mortgage loans on their books.

    Consumer debt amounts to about 250 percent of available income. By comparison, in 2011 even the Spaniards only reached a debt ratio of 125 percent.

    The Netherlands is still one of the most competitive countries in the European Union, but now that the real estate bubble has burst, it threatens to take down the entire economy with it. Unemployment is on the rise, consumption is down and growth has come to a standstill. Despite tough austerity measures, this year the government in The Hague will violate the EU deficit criterion, which forbid new borrowing of more than 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

    It's a heavy burden, especially for Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who is also the new head of the Euro Group, and now finds himself in the unexpected role of being both a watchdog for the monetary union and a crisis candidate.

    Even €46 billion in austerity measures are apparently not enough to remain within the EU debt limit. Although Dijsselbloem has announced another €4.3 billion in cuts in public service and healthcare, they will only take effect in 2014.'

    oh dear.

    It all begs the question as to why so manay western govts have fallen into this same trap - failure to control bank lending, almost during the same 20 yr period?! It must be unprecedented that so many fools ruled so many for so long, leading to such a mega lending spree of such idiocy, when it was so unnecessary and has led to so many economic problems which were so foreseeable!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I frankly do not understand why no one seemed to have any forethought about the end consequences. People will borrow whatever they are allowed to, whether that is stupid or not. So GOVT SHOULD CONTROL IT VERY TIGHTLY for the benefit of all and the long term health of the economy.

    Karen Brady for PM. Me for chancellor. (see her on Piers Morgan chat show) ;)

  15. If UK house prices were 4.51xaverage incomes then wouldn't that make the average house around £115k?

    Yes - the figures reflect a very skewed view of this. Certainly in the South an average house is around £230k, but up North anything from £40-120k will buy same thing. Averages are never a great guide for a whole country. Its about 8-10x av wage in Sussex to buy a 3 bed semi.

  16. Isn't it amazing that years into this financial crisis we are suddenly finding articles appearing suggesting house prices are too high!

    Look at this

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/comment/9974836/A-house-price-warning-for-first-time-buyers.html

    The article shows an average income to house price ratio of 4.51 at present. It does not mention that the ratio is much higher in the South and lower in the North, but otherwise spot on. We have a lunatic Chancellor who wants to encourage people to borrow massive multiples of income at stupidly low rates and expect it all to turn out well when the govt is busy subsidising it all! I can't believe a Tory is even interested in this market manipulation. It is causing even more mal-investment and taking legitimate investment away from productive wealth creating industry. If he thinks pumping up a housing bubble will help UK plc then he is more misguided than I ever thought possible. :(

  17. The entire planet is dependent upon house prices. If we had any sense, with all us HPCers now know about how rigged the system is, we would become estate agents/realtors.

    I do meet some lovely, intelligent, hard-working EAs but, bluntly, most that I have met seem to do very little for huge reward. People actually come to them, pay them money to sell their house and then later on people complain about how little the EA actually did... and they tell all their friends... and when the friends want to sell their house they go and hand money over to the same EA firms.

    It is nuts.

    Why the internet has not yet replaced EAs I do not know. Tesco started to do it, said they were going to change how we bought houses and then they pulled out. I am convinced that someone in the govt had a word in their ear and stopped them.

    Seriously, being an EA seems money for nothing. If anyone has been a winner in the past 6 years of financial madness it has been the two 'professions' that helped cause the crash - banksters and EAs!

    I have the blue print for ending EA's in an online format. I just need investors to start it - it would be millions needed. The only reason it has not been done is the large cost of getting it going. If u look around the world, is there anywhere it has happened? It requires some thought because humans will need to be involved - a pure online vehicle would not work. Any offers?

  18. they should levy an emergency spoon tax on every household in the UK found to be using their ware

    If they want to tax parking beyond economic sense they will fail. In Brighton the on road charges have been slashed because we all stayed away. It had been put up to £4 for 2 hours etc and it was not feasible. Now it's back down to £2 for 4 hours.

    Spoons? now you're talking - they could add a charge per spoon per household per year with a spoon value tax. Best to tax shopping bags aswell - £5 for a plastic one and £4 for paper. They could have carbon footprint measuring stalls put up and we could have our shoes cleaned at the same time. :lol:

  19. Actually the article is a puff piece based on press releases by property firms

    ATTENTION

    "Friedrich Wachernig, a member of the board at S Immo, a property investment company, said demand was outstripping supply in Berlin and prices were also rising in Hamburg and Munich. “There is lack of supply and huge demand as people move into these cities.”

    INTEREST

    "Property firms report brisk residential sales and rising prices across the big cities, while Berlin – where rents have increased by 8.1pc over the past year – is being transformed by the construction of upmarket apartment blocks. Experts predict that the country is at the beginning of a property boom."

    DESIRE

    “Given that interest rates have fallen dramatically, people can afford [to borrow] much more than they could previously. Banks are keen to get into this market so they are offering very high loan-to-value rates, you’re looking at a loan-to-value rate of 65pc to 70pc.”

    CLOSE

    “There is a shift towards owner-occupation, that’s for sure,” said Michael Schlatterer, a member of the residential valuation team at CBRE Germany, another property services firm. “You can see that the trajectory for condominium purchases is going up. But Berlin still has a low rate of owner-occupation.”

    get in now before everyone else does.

    same old same old...appeal to greed, create a fear, sell a loan.

    Too true. I expect heavy British speculation based on an article like that. Off u BTL'ers go.....Berlin

  20. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22009412

    Yeah recovery.

    A record high in the midst of a global depression....

    It's speculation as usual. Money trying to find a home where it thinks a profit is to be had. The property sector and construction have in most places had a hard time. Gold has perked up and because of the high risk of inflation from world QE there is some semse in equities at present. I agree it does not reflect world depression, but it reflects flight of capital very much.

  21. I wanted this to be wrong and to indignantly tell you to provide a link or shut up, but sadly you're absolutely right.

    Farage wants to printy-printy

    Why is he meeting with those four then? Is it to impress impressionable Libertarain-minded UK voters and convince them he's one of them?

    I am not so sure the article simply means 'printy'. However, it highlights that the borowing that is continuing is having little effect and cautions against a return to Labour's failed policies. So, he belideves in other stimuli without spelling them out very effectively. Meantime:

    UK suffers fresh rating downgrade

    March 28, 2013, 3:33am

    THE UK’s still-soaring debt-to-GDP ratio convinced independent ratings agency Egan-Jones to yesterday cut the country’s sovereign debt rating from AA- to A+, in a fresh blow to chancellor George Osborne. “The over-riding concern is whether the country will be able to cut its deficit in the face of weaker economic conditions,” Egan-Jones said.

    The only thing that will sort this matter out is strong leadership and vision. There is none around that I can see. The housing market will not rescue UK PLC and cannot since we simply do not manufacture enough goods ourselves - any upsurge in demand will soon lead to greater imports, balance of trade problems...blah blah...

    People simply do not earn enough to buy houses in the uk easily. They are TOO MUCH and need to deflate. Handing people easy cash they could not otherwise borrow in anormal market is a new kind of subprime. You would have thought they may have learnt by now, but no; Osborne has shown himself to be clueless - Even Grant Schapps admitted house prices were too high.

  22. BOE base rate at 0.5%, massive QE, being exceptionally lenient on households struggling with mortgages, have skewed the markets more than ever i'd say.

    Yes, this hs had thr effect of slowing thend ofthe cycle and in fact delaying the pain, which will in tun make it worse. This Govt is GUILTY of making it worse. It is Labour in drag.

  23. If this has already been covered elsewhere, please let me know, but I came across a couple of tweets from Jim Pickard, the FT's chief political correspondent....

    "House prices across UK still down 18 per cent from their peak in Q3, 2007, according to Halifax."

    and

    "House prices across UK up 10 per cent between 2007 and 2012, according to ONS. Not sure why massive discrepancy with Halifax."

    I looked up the numbers at ONS.... http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-280905 ... and they seem to be as JP says.

    The Halifax figures are more or less in agreement with Nationwide's and the Land Registry isn't very different so it seems as though ONS is the outlier. Is there any obvious reason for the disagreement?

    If you exclude London, that is absolute rubbish.

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