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plummet expert

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Posts posted by plummet expert

  1. I think the Telegraph is saying that leaving the Euro would be the answer to all their problems and then they could be as successful as the UK.

    THEY SHOULD ALL LEAVE THE EURO. But it would still be a spiral of competitive devaluation. The fact is that living standards will have to reverse by about 30 yrs and thats very unpalatable. Simples. The debt will either cost a fortuen over 30 yrs or default will bring about a short sharp change and then recovery begins.

  2. Unexpected.

    From the Beeb http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23237654

    "UK manufacturing output in surprise fall

    UK manufacturing unexpectedly fell in May, contracting at its fastest pace since January, official figures show.

    The 0.8% drop was much weaker than analysts' forecasts, with most having predicted a rise. The wider measure of industrial output was unchanged.

    The figures run counter to data released recently that has indicated the economy picking up.

    Last week, a manufacturing sector survey recorded the best growth for nearly two years in June.

    Other surveys pointed to continuing strength in the services sector, and a rise in confidence across UK businesses.

    There was more good news for the UK housing market on Tuesday, with surveyors are expecting house prices to keep rising. Last week, the Halifax said that house prices were rising at their fastest annual rate for nearly three years.

    'Weak' momentum

    Commenting on the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures, Lee Hopley. of the EEF manufacturers' organisation, said: "Output gains in electrical equipment and transport sectors weren't enough to offset bigger contractions in pharmaceuticals and metals.

    "We did, however, see some growth in exports and signs of stabilisation in Europe providing a slight lift for overseas sales.

    "While the ONS data suggest industry's contribution to growth in the second quarter is likely to be limited, there are signs that confidence is returning and growth should start to resume as we move into the second half of the year."

    David Tinsley from BNP Paribas said: "Overall, this is not a strong set of data.

    "The momentum behind manufacturing remains disappointingly weak, which is troubling, given the economy needs to do more to rebalance towards sectors where it can hope to find demand for its exports."

    The ONS also said the UK's trade deficit grew to £8.491bn in May from £8.430bn in April.

    "The overall trade deficit is slightly up, but the April figure was revised down, which paints a mixed picture. Worryingly, the volume of exports in goods fell while imports increased," said David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce.

    "Overall, our trade deficit is still too large, and we are not making fast enough progress in rebalancing our economy towards net exports," he added."

    There has been insufficient rebalancing towards an export led recovery! The figures tend to show that the economy as a whole shows some signs of life, while manufacturing is actually stagnant. Therefore we are again entering a housing led so called recovery which will HAVE TO PETER OUT. It is not sustainable and the policy of pumping up the housing market as an alternative to real policies will come undone. Imports will increase for a while and the balance of payments will suffer because we are not really paying our way in the world. The 'help to buy scheme' was called 'moronic' by the head of Societe General - and no wonder.

  3. http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/legal-fight-ends-in-defeat-for-sheffield-chef-1-5835589

    A very long legal tussle and all for nothing but a large legal bill. Buying off plan is clearly a large risk, not sure I'd want to buy something that hasn't even been built and when potentially the designs might change, although that doesn't appear to have happened in this case.

    Any contract for 'off plan' should always be subject to satisfactory finance being made available to the buyer. Otherwise, do not sign! I bought them many times in the past when the rediculous merry go round was going on pre-2007. I even sold one before completion, so that there was a back to back completion where I got about £15K for doing nothing!! That is the sort of stupid situation which never be possible and wish had never been possible frankly.

    All of it should be tightly managed to stop massive market fluctuations. If you asked me in 2002 how long this nonsense would continue and low rates from 5% and less remain around, I would never have believed they could still be in 2013!! I really thought it was a top by 2005. But no, stupid govts encouraged it even more, along with the B of E who has no clue and now with a clueless Carney on board. We are still at a HP way above the last crash average of 5.5 x average income in the entire southern half of the country.

  4. Hey all,

    Well, after a few years of lurking (and sometimes posting) on here, I've decided that voting against 'the system' (by not buying) and being fleeced by it (by QE 4 EVA) are sadly the same thing. With a slightly heavy heart, I have made (and had accepted) an offer to buy today. I know these things are personal, but here are my reasons/pros/cons, just for the record:

    1 - I had to move area anyway, to be closer to a new office my business is opening

    2 - I fancied a change of scene anyway

    3 - The kids are 6 and 9 and quite want to have their bedrooms painted in the colour of their choice (oh dear!)

    4 - My deposit is depreciating in real terms

    5 - It's a long term thing, so I'm largely ambivalent about paper price drops

    6 - The bitter pill has been somewhat sweetened by the fact that I'm moving to a comparatively 'cheap' area (north Lincs) where you still get quite a lot of house for your money.

    The good news is that I have paid exactly the same price for the place as the vendor paid in........2002!

    I will still come and lurk here. I like to be among relatively sane people :)

    Best,

    Andy

    That's ok. It's all been manipulated by govts. It will play out and it will right itself over time. The bond market is showing rate rises to come and relatively quickly.

  5. me too..........

    out of my close business owning friends 4 are no longer "bosses"

    my local high street has 2 more empty`s and 2 more charity shops :(

    13 people are looking for work :angry:

    Not every business is feeling so glum. But of those I know, 1 is more optimistic than for 3 yrs, another has said money is very tight and they can't raise prices while rising costs are squeezing them. More public spending cuts are causing soem knock on problems. Slightly more house sales and knock on sales going on.

    However the bond time bomb/interest rate ramp up has started. It's all on a knife edge and could so easily crack. The most fragile almost non-recovery in my long life-time I have ever seen.

  6. Land registry sales volumes and prices for northants:

    April 2013 135,000" down -0.2 month on month, up 0.3 year on year.

    This matches prices from : June 2004 134,927

    February 2013 569 ( for 2012 this was 618, i.e. sales dropping ).

    Welcome to summer.

    I guess if you take out london then the land registry would be well down.

    When London prices collapse we will see significant drops.

    It is very patchy at best and mostly the SE an London holding up the figures on their own. The bond time bomb is ticking - the interest rates are beginning to go up in markets. The stock market has noticed and is twitchy....

  7. High Street retailers to call for “online sales tax”

    http://tamebay.com/2013/06/high-street-retailers-to-call-for-online-sales-tax.html

    I think this is the dinosaur complaining that he can't keep up with the Cheetah. Any business that can do online business should get on and do it themselves and stop this protective attitude ...it' the e-retailing change of our time- that's that.

  8. It's all the UK has left now. Mom 'n' Pop shops. Me-too franchises. Cupcake entrepreneurs. Each of them one late payment away from extinction.

    The Austin or Morris cupcake didn't taste right of late. I suppose a Kia or Hyundai cupcake with a 7 year icing warranty would do better?

    What a silly story this is....ok businesses go cupcakes up everyday whatever the economic weather. That's life. Some other business will do better as a result.

  9. Bizarrely my old gaff has been relisted on rightmove in May this year (same piccies and everything) as Sold STC when it was actually sold in Dec 2011, completed in Feb 2012.

    It's definitely not the new owners selling on as they have had an extension put on etc. so is there any limit to how long an EA can put forward their triumphant sale?

    It shows how much of a smoke and mirrors world buying and selling a house actually is.

  10. House prices rise by £9,000: average value soars to £238,000

    The express jizzing all over it's pants.

    Higher prices it appears energise the first time buyer...

    Well, there are sales going on, but the idea that prices are more than holding their own/nudging up, is rubbish. LOTS of properties just sitting there month after month and revolving around agents. It's nothing like a frenzy. The FFLS is a moronic policy as is help to buy. The bubble has never deflated from the last time, so the stupid govt wants to put up house prices and forget that its inflation which makes us poorer - but house prices are not in the basket of goods for CPI, so that's handy.

  11. I think not just in your view, MT. To say it's had a bad press is an understatement. True, mostly along the lines of the 'downside risk' cliche, rather than it being morally indefensible from the get go. But still, a universal panning.

    You can now understand the rise and rise of UKIP. The Tories can't really offload all the blame on to Labour when they were clearly the least effective opposition in living memory. Which has translated into an inept and impotent Government. Blair's infamous war with Iraq would never have happened without Tory support. The Labour back benches were far more vociferous opponents . . . which is why people like Claire Short and Robin Cook just had to go . . . in their different ways.

    I think Dave might have to dump his moronic chum over this one . . . the untimely sell-off of RBS is also looking like political dynamite.

    Osborne is the Tory equivalent of Labour's Healey in the 1970's - absolutely without a clue.

  12. Unless of course he's a secret forum reader and can't wait to halt QE, hike IRs and behave like a sensible man to make the country finally take its necessary medicine and start a real recovery. Stranger things have happened. (Though I won't hold me breath)

    Hahahahhahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!He is a QE maniac who has already expressed admiration for the enormous pumping up in Japan - which wil backfire......

  13. The young have less debt. The smart young have saved. The young coming though would be better positioned to advance in life if higher interest rates shook out zombie businesses run by older people, allowing them to be taken over solvent people with new ideas. Some disruption in the process, with unemployment and pressure on pay, but eventual recovery in younger hands.

    Also forcing house prices to crash from the ridiculous heights they've been inflated up to, making them more affordable to young people.

    Keep on pushing the policies which hurt younger people the most Danny, and which protect older people, especially those who've taken on too much debt.

    Absolutely right! Blanchflower talks trash if he thinks that a medicine which hurts might be bad for you - he has it so wrong. Sadly there are too many who think absurdly low rates actually help when they are actually causing long term distortions which will hurt much more.

  14. Everyone on HPC should read this well written article http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/shaun-richards/all-the-intervention-in-the-uk-house-market-is-creating-quite-a-mess/

    It lets us know that the supposed increase in mortgage lensing is actually a fall - by 36 mortgages in April compared to March.

    This Govt seems to have no idea how foolish it has been with all their intervention in the housing market doiing a lot of damage and actually no good atall!! :angry: :huh:

  15. Burn. How do journos keep getting away with this? If they believe and buy at super high prices, it then their not victims, just wilfully ignorant and deserve to be in heavy negative equity.

    Demand alone doesn't cause house prices to rise. Ability and willingness to pay higher prices makes house prices rise, or to support them at highly inflated levels, thus QE, super low rates, then FLS and Help-To-Buy schemes to push the excess credit that the market itself is not willing to provide.

    The only thing that sustains a house price is the borowing ability of the purchaser. UNTIL THAT LESSON IS LEARNED THEN WE HAVE NOBODY IN GOVT WHO HAS A CLUE. There is NO need for high land and house prices which do indeed cause low growth and poor wellbeing and ultimately a poorer standard of living. PROPER lending policy and a few other tweaks would put it right in a short time frame.

  16. Farage is putting foxes in charge of chicken houses.....

    http://m.insidehousing.co.uk/6526959.article?mobilesite=enabled

    Putting a private landlord in charge of housing policy is like putting a fox in charge of the hen house, or giving an MP a free licence at their expenses.

    Housing benefit is simply a transfer of taxpayers money to the private landlord sector.

    UKIP should be doing something about getting rents down not propping them up with taxpayers money...

    Boys and Girls take note UKIP maybe not all sweetness and light after all.

    Well, the bedroom tax is stupid. there should be a simple obligation, which is enforceable, to swap with tenats who need more space. End of story. No taxing, just enforced swapping with 6 months notice. Apart from that, the housing market needs to crash to have it made affordable for those prepared to save a 10% deposit. Put up interest rates for savewrs and lets have it happen.

  17. You would certainly hope so..... but I'm not at all convinced. I half think the current administration would rather support Anyone than risk lower house prices.

    We should ban all IO mortgages now. WE should ban 120% mortgages which have re-emerged too. Only max 90% LTV AND 2.25 X INCOME MULTIPLES & 0.5 x second income should be allowed through any lender, primary or secondary. Minimum interest rate should be 4.5%. After a year, the prices would tumble to fit the incomes in most places. The unearned equity of a the few would be wiped away. The squeezed bottom and recent buyers would have negative equity. They would wait for 10 yrs for the prices to reach current levels or if very unlucky would lose what they could not afford on any realistic measure. Lower rents woud follow: lower housing benefit, less wage and inflation pressure, better international competitiveness. We could spend all this money currently supporting house buying on manufacturing and restructuring and exporting for long term wealth. Simples

  18. House placed with estate agent today in Nottingham, board up at 3pm, couple driving past ask to see it. Sold at asking price 3.30pm. Is this a record? I've checked and they have the cash. Whatever is causing the phenomenon houses look like they are moving again as I have been watching the market here for the last year. My guess is pent up demand and a general belief that things are changing. Might well be wrong, I wouldn't be on this forum if I wasn't skeptical, but public sentiment seems to have shifted. Anyway, still in shock, was resigned to having on the market for a year and then reducing the price. Mind you the asking price is 4% down on what I paid in 2007 and I have improved it a fair bit. Still, never expected.

    Let us know if it goes through! Houses can be like that at any time - someone has been waiting for just what they want and there it is, so they pounce. If they are not sold in the first 4 weeks then they often sit about for a while. Just sold one myself. It was sold for £18k less than asking - in a vibrant part of the South East - sussex -. it was not in a great position so u can only get what is offered. It has taken 6 weeks to get an offer where they could proceed.

  19. Debt-2000-2018.png

    How can the Govt claim that they 'have got rid of a third of the debt' ?? All ministers and some MP's keep dropping this into the conversation when being interviewed, but the ONS figures here show different. I have said on HPC a number of times that the national debt and the structural debt are being blurred by the Politicians - trying to pull the wool over our eyes. The plain fact is we are borrowing very heavily almost every month (the structural deficit) and this graph shows where the total national debt will be by 2018 - massive and still not actually falling!

    If a bond crisis happens anytime soon then we are doomed. It's only because most of the Western world are in the same sort of boat that international bond rates have remained so low - not actually because Osborne and the Tories have a so called prudent budget in hand. :blink::huh:

  20. They've been saying more or less the same thing for the past 5 years - QE will lead to runaway inflation, etc.

    Hasn't happened. We're in a liquidity trap where monetary policy alone is like pushing on a piece of string. How many times do they have to be proven wrong before they just shut up or change the record?

    They're not wrong. As soon as the velocity of money picks up with any growth worth discussing, then the inflationary genie will reurn from its corked bottle. The damage and distortion to the economy quoted is very real and happening now. Enforced low rates for yrs and yrs is a very bad policy indeed. Sadly far too many sit back with a cheap mortgage and can''t see the problem.

  21. It always amazes me how some just can't seem to understand that there's no 'magic bullet' that's going to make the consequences of the credit boom go away. They think that deficits can just be maintained ad-naseum (or even increased) .. with printed money if necessary .. and that will somehow fix the problem.

    Quite clearly the vast amounts of credit extended by the financial sector (and borrowed by governments, organisations and individuals) can not and will not be made good. The default will either be hard or soft. Soft default will appear to lessen the blow but will drag the crisis out and in the case of money printing, prevent any underlying issues being addressed (i.e. state deficits, insolvent banks) leading to a bigger crisis down the line as the system becomes increasingly untenable.

    Hard default means facing up to the losses - clearly this is bad news for an economy fuelled by credit and will entail - gasp - real economic hurt, especially for those who over-extended. However, that's the way the cookie crumbles. Attempting to dodge it by destroying the currency will just trash the whole system in the long term.

    When I am PM I shall appoint you chancellor! Well spotted. :lol:

  22. more specifically, my relative's inlaw sold for street record in Hove - something like 800k (bought for 500k) and moved to Devon.

    Smart guy.

    Ex JP Morgan.

    Another example.

    Ex-Amex (big employer still in the town) bought for 50k in the 1980s. Sold up for 700k - gave money to kids (hubby died), bought sheltered accomm for 200k

    It's all unearnt asset wealth which will haunt us for a generation. Hove has been ludicrously expensive for over 15 yrs. 30 yrs ago you could not give the houses away.

  23. Has anyone else been complaining about these schemes to their MP/Treasury etc. I have and they dont seem interested in any objections to it. The only hope is there is more high profile opposition.

    This is the last straw for me, the same people who were talking the last bubble up are at it again, the average people in the street have forgotton what caused the financial crisis, and now the government are behind the latest house price boost with Funding for Lending, Help to Buy, and interest rates will be kept low whatever happens. It'll be more aggressive QE and negative interest rates next.

    You are quite right! The govt does not care about anything but election of a tory govt in 2015. There will be no majority for anyone the way things look. You can therefore stick yout fingers up and vote UKIP :D

  24. I liked The Ascent of Money, but if (as reported) Ferguson is arguing that Keynes got his economics wrong because he was a Marmite miner, then he is straying into Norman Tebbit territory, isn't he?

    There's a lot of views along his lines out there now. The fac is ylou cannot stimulate a corpse. The more you do, the more you deceive yourself and the costlier a movement of each limb it becomes. Keynesianism does not work when you have a poor, uncompetitive and small manufacturing base. It will simply suck in imports and fail, creating a worse crisi than the first one it intended to assist. That is why Osborne will fail. He has no economic understanding or hostorical perspective and is frnakly not behaving as I might expect a Tory to do. He is cloaking socialis stimulus in tory language and hoping to get a spark of life out of a cadaver before the next election. Of course it will show a current through the veins, because he and the B of E (who should know better) have pumped £375bn of imaginary money into the system, subsidised the lending to business and retail mortgages and dressed this up as a sensible economic policy. Litttle enough has been done to deal with fundamental problems. You cannot skew the market reality for 6 yrs and expect a sustained revival. It is a building on sand.

  25. Dont worry. It cant last long. The fact rates are at zero and growth is still non-existent shows the ponzi has run its course.

    We are not Japan, we dont have a 10% trade surplus to offset 10% deficits, as they had for 20 years. The pound for this reason will not defy gravity, inflation will become very visible, rates will rise, and the whole thing will crash.

    Then we have the govt response of either hyperinflation, to rid us of debts that way (very nasty indeed) or some kind of Cyprus wealth grab on steroids to turn the debts into assets.

    I suppose the most sensible scenario is some cash some gold to prepare for both.

    I still hope we can make it to 2015, we end up with a hung parliament or labour tory coalition and it takes both parties down with it.

    Shhhhh UKIP it to yourself won't you. The storm is brewing an ever stronger wind as Osborne and Cameron did not heed the warnings of the last bump. The next bump will hurt more even if it is quieter. Mark my words...this game cannot possibly work to bring us out of economic mire.

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