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plummet expert

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Everything posted by plummet expert

  1. THEY SHOULD ALL LEAVE THE EURO. But it would still be a spiral of competitive devaluation. The fact is that living standards will have to reverse by about 30 yrs and thats very unpalatable. Simples. The debt will either cost a fortuen over 30 yrs or default will bring about a short sharp change and then recovery begins.
  2. There has been insufficient rebalancing towards an export led recovery! The figures tend to show that the economy as a whole shows some signs of life, while manufacturing is actually stagnant. Therefore we are again entering a housing led so called recovery which will HAVE TO PETER OUT. It is not sustainable and the policy of pumping up the housing market as an alternative to real policies will come undone. Imports will increase for a while and the balance of payments will suffer because we are not really paying our way in the world. The 'help to buy scheme' was called 'moronic' by the head of Societe General - and no wonder.
  3. Any contract for 'off plan' should always be subject to satisfactory finance being made available to the buyer. Otherwise, do not sign! I bought them many times in the past when the rediculous merry go round was going on pre-2007. I even sold one before completion, so that there was a back to back completion where I got about £15K for doing nothing!! That is the sort of stupid situation which never be possible and wish had never been possible frankly. All of it should be tightly managed to stop massive market fluctuations. If you asked me in 2002 how long this nonsense would continue and low rates from 5% and less remain around, I would never have believed they could still be in 2013!! I really thought it was a top by 2005. But no, stupid govts encouraged it even more, along with the B of E who has no clue and now with a clueless Carney on board. We are still at a HP way above the last crash average of 5.5 x average income in the entire southern half of the country.
  4. That's ok. It's all been manipulated by govts. It will play out and it will right itself over time. The bond market is showing rate rises to come and relatively quickly.
  5. Not every business is feeling so glum. But of those I know, 1 is more optimistic than for 3 yrs, another has said money is very tight and they can't raise prices while rising costs are squeezing them. More public spending cuts are causing soem knock on problems. Slightly more house sales and knock on sales going on. However the bond time bomb/interest rate ramp up has started. It's all on a knife edge and could so easily crack. The most fragile almost non-recovery in my long life-time I have ever seen.
  6. It is very patchy at best and mostly the SE an London holding up the figures on their own. The bond time bomb is ticking - the interest rates are beginning to go up in markets. The stock market has noticed and is twitchy....
  7. I think this is the dinosaur complaining that he can't keep up with the Cheetah. Any business that can do online business should get on and do it themselves and stop this protective attitude ...it' the e-retailing change of our time- that's that.
  8. The Austin or Morris cupcake didn't taste right of late. I suppose a Kia or Hyundai cupcake with a 7 year icing warranty would do better? What a silly story this is....ok businesses go cupcakes up everyday whatever the economic weather. That's life. Some other business will do better as a result.
  9. It shows how much of a smoke and mirrors world buying and selling a house actually is.
  10. Well, there are sales going on, but the idea that prices are more than holding their own/nudging up, is rubbish. LOTS of properties just sitting there month after month and revolving around agents. It's nothing like a frenzy. The FFLS is a moronic policy as is help to buy. The bubble has never deflated from the last time, so the stupid govt wants to put up house prices and forget that its inflation which makes us poorer - but house prices are not in the basket of goods for CPI, so that's handy.
  11. Osborne is the Tory equivalent of Labour's Healey in the 1970's - absolutely without a clue.
  12. Hahahahhahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!He is a QE maniac who has already expressed admiration for the enormous pumping up in Japan - which wil backfire......
  13. Absolutely right! Blanchflower talks trash if he thinks that a medicine which hurts might be bad for you - he has it so wrong. Sadly there are too many who think absurdly low rates actually help when they are actually causing long term distortions which will hurt much more.
  14. Everyone on HPC should read this well written article http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/shaun-richards/all-the-intervention-in-the-uk-house-market-is-creating-quite-a-mess/ It lets us know that the supposed increase in mortgage lensing is actually a fall - by 36 mortgages in April compared to March. This Govt seems to have no idea how foolish it has been with all their intervention in the housing market doiing a lot of damage and actually no good atall!! :angry:
  15. The only thing that sustains a house price is the borowing ability of the purchaser. UNTIL THAT LESSON IS LEARNED THEN WE HAVE NOBODY IN GOVT WHO HAS A CLUE. There is NO need for high land and house prices which do indeed cause low growth and poor wellbeing and ultimately a poorer standard of living. PROPER lending policy and a few other tweaks would put it right in a short time frame.
  16. Well, the bedroom tax is stupid. there should be a simple obligation, which is enforceable, to swap with tenats who need more space. End of story. No taxing, just enforced swapping with 6 months notice. Apart from that, the housing market needs to crash to have it made affordable for those prepared to save a 10% deposit. Put up interest rates for savewrs and lets have it happen.
  17. We should ban all IO mortgages now. WE should ban 120% mortgages which have re-emerged too. Only max 90% LTV AND 2.25 X INCOME MULTIPLES & 0.5 x second income should be allowed through any lender, primary or secondary. Minimum interest rate should be 4.5%. After a year, the prices would tumble to fit the incomes in most places. The unearned equity of a the few would be wiped away. The squeezed bottom and recent buyers would have negative equity. They would wait for 10 yrs for the prices to reach current levels or if very unlucky would lose what they could not afford on any realistic measure. Lower rents woud follow: lower housing benefit, less wage and inflation pressure, better international competitiveness. We could spend all this money currently supporting house buying on manufacturing and restructuring and exporting for long term wealth. Simples
  18. Let us know if it goes through! Houses can be like that at any time - someone has been waiting for just what they want and there it is, so they pounce. If they are not sold in the first 4 weeks then they often sit about for a while. Just sold one myself. It was sold for £18k less than asking - in a vibrant part of the South East - sussex -. it was not in a great position so u can only get what is offered. It has taken 6 weeks to get an offer where they could proceed.
  19. How can the Govt claim that they 'have got rid of a third of the debt' ?? All ministers and some MP's keep dropping this into the conversation when being interviewed, but the ONS figures here show different. I have said on HPC a number of times that the national debt and the structural debt are being blurred by the Politicians - trying to pull the wool over our eyes. The plain fact is we are borrowing very heavily almost every month (the structural deficit) and this graph shows where the total national debt will be by 2018 - massive and still not actually falling! If a bond crisis happens anytime soon then we are doomed. It's only because most of the Western world are in the same sort of boat that international bond rates have remained so low - not actually because Osborne and the Tories have a so called prudent budget in hand.
  20. They're not wrong. As soon as the velocity of money picks up with any growth worth discussing, then the inflationary genie will reurn from its corked bottle. The damage and distortion to the economy quoted is very real and happening now. Enforced low rates for yrs and yrs is a very bad policy indeed. Sadly far too many sit back with a cheap mortgage and can''t see the problem.
  21. It's all unearnt asset wealth which will haunt us for a generation. Hove has been ludicrously expensive for over 15 yrs. 30 yrs ago you could not give the houses away.
  22. You are quite right! The govt does not care about anything but election of a tory govt in 2015. There will be no majority for anyone the way things look. You can therefore stick yout fingers up and vote UKIP
  23. There's a lot of views along his lines out there now. The fac is ylou cannot stimulate a corpse. The more you do, the more you deceive yourself and the costlier a movement of each limb it becomes. Keynesianism does not work when you have a poor, uncompetitive and small manufacturing base. It will simply suck in imports and fail, creating a worse crisi than the first one it intended to assist. That is why Osborne will fail. He has no economic understanding or hostorical perspective and is frnakly not behaving as I might expect a Tory to do. He is cloaking socialis stimulus in tory language and hoping to get a spark of life out of a cadaver before the next election. Of course it will show a current through the veins, because he and the B of E (who should know better) have pumped £375bn of imaginary money into the system, subsidised the lending to business and retail mortgages and dressed this up as a sensible economic policy. Litttle enough has been done to deal with fundamental problems. You cannot skew the market reality for 6 yrs and expect a sustained revival. It is a building on sand.
  24. Shhhhh UKIP it to yourself won't you. The storm is brewing an ever stronger wind as Osborne and Cameron did not heed the warnings of the last bump. The next bump will hurt more even if it is quieter. Mark my words...this game cannot possibly work to bring us out of economic mire.
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