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plummet expert

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Posts posted by plummet expert

  1. Funny thing hearing this news! Only a few weeks ago Osborne announced the effective extension of FFL by bringing forward the Help to buy scheme, which brought about much the same scheme for used homes and not just new ones! It has laready started. I have also noticed developers advertising their new little boxes (with gardens the same size as the garage), as being eligible for 'Help To Buy." So what is going on! None of it makes any sense whatsoever.


  2. Quote from the dreaded Anne Ashworth's usual piece in the Times property section today:

    'The Chartered Institute of Housing is recommending that the Chancellor should use his Autumn Statement to improve tax concessions for landlords who commit to higher standards. Landlords who fail to do so would have their tax perks reduced. This is a controversial suggestion, but at least it starts a debate on the crisis in the rental business.'

    Crisis? I wonder whether she and/or cronies have been hit by the HB cap in London.

    NO NO NO. We need to change the arena for private LL altogether. It is true that in times prior to the 1988 LL & T Act there were fewer BTL and the security for a T was so great it was impossible to finance it. There was rent control and rent inspectors. As a result, most people who could not afford to buy used council property. Now it has moved too far in the other direction - time to get it right. We have failed to provide anything like enough new social housing units. We have allowed massive speculation of land prices - it's all about the finance and mortgage market. The recipe is a housing crisis and no one can aford them -the govts response? Lend them more - where the market won't, the govt will take the risk for 4-5 x income mortgages! They are mad. People were touching on it in Question Time last night. Only the audience pointed out prices were TOO HIGH - none of the politicians dared to agree with that part....We all know why.

  3. I would borrow infinite amounts if I was charged a negative interest rate but some how I don't think the negative bit is meant to work that way

    It would be a completely mad plan and can only meant the finacial system is unable to recover - it needs a bust followed by renewal and that'sbeen prevented by pouring billions of printed/electronically craeted non existent money into the banking system. As we have found, this policy only helps bankers to large commisions and bonuses and the stock market to float upward when all economic indicators suggested it should fall harder or remain stagnant since 2008.

    They knowest not what they do......when it will it all come home to roost?

  4. £167,063 was the number LR tweeted last month – it's the seasonally adjusted figure.

    Assuming that the £165,515 is also the SA number then this would imply that September's average has been revised down from £167,063 to approx £165,850.

    There has been a flurry of activity in house sales. What I have noticed is this: there has been easy sales on the lower priced properties - in fact most round me are under offer or 'sold'. But, AS SOON AS YOU REACH THE PRICE of about £350k or more, the market is very quiet and much slower. People do not have sufficient income multiples to buy above this in general.

    The new homes near me are moving but slowly. Who wants to pay £419k for a 4 bed box with virtually no garden? You will take years to show any 'profit' and it may even fall as rates rise.

    The other thing is that ONLY 2000 HAVE USED HELP TO BUY, since it was brought forward. I find that figure very small - many house builders say they have hardly noticed it even though it applied to new build since March.

    So I think the glass ceiling may be in.

  5. Damn, I thought I left this [email protected] behind me when I left London!

    I moved from central London to Norwich a year ago and have started to look for somewhere to buy about a month ago. Trouble is anything I try to view has either gone under offer when I call up the estate agents or I get my viewings cancelled because the seller has found a buyer.

    Last week I phoned up about 9 properties to view over the week ( try to organise most for the weekend). Out of the 9 , 3 just had offers accepted in the previous two days. Out of the remaining 6, three were cancelled on the day or day before the viewings due to asking price offers. So I got to view only three ! One of which had an offer accepted the hour before I viewed it...arghhh!

    These are all around the sub 200k range. Not sure if this is all due to h2b first timers or people trying to front run them and Christmas time. What's shocking is how quickly and easily these 'offers' are being made like its a game of monopoly.

    It seems that the 'wall' of money outside London is coming from cheap credit... As this place doesn't stink of liquid cash and wealth of the central London that I left.

    On the plus side, 200k here will buy you a lovely detached house in a decent area here... In St. John's wood London I was looking at 250k starters for a frigging studio.

    The madness is back and or it's still live and kicking.....

    All the action is in the sub £250k homes. The rest of the market remains slow or very slow above £500k.

  6. Grant Shapps.

    Absolutley no shame whatsoever.

    I dont care for him at all.

    I agree. And as for Ken - he needs to understand a little more about economics and borrowing by govts. The fact is that a small amount of borrowing up to 5% gdp actually creates a slightly higher growth rateand costs less to srvice than the increase in wealth/taxes. Just like the best medicine, having more is worse. Brown knew nothing and spent, spent, spent. Clueless idiot who deserves a very poor write-up in the history books. Probably the worst Chancellor ever after Dennis Healey in the 1970's, who ended up with a similar debt and in the hands of the IMF. It really is always Labour who have snookered the economy. The tories, on the other hand, handle it better but always protect the rich and abort meritocracy.

  7. Apparently real wage inflation is due mid 2014.

    Based on the Bank of England's track record I won't be holding my breath.

    Carney was the wrong man for the job - he believs in endless house price hikes. Canada is now suffering the consequences.

    If we went back to wage push inflation - as happened in the 1970's, then inflation would rapidly rise and no wealth would be created . We would soon fail. House prices would rise within a year or two if people are still allowed 4-5 x income mortgages. Our comptetitiveness would again be assaulted. It will bring us another step towards decline. ONLY if we put up rates and have the price of living inn houses/homes fall to a sensible level can we cure the mess. Some banks may need to go under. We need many more to spring up and compete.

    The current policy is one of 'Zombie preserve and pretend all is well.' When you are told our recovery is the strongest in the world, do not beam with contentment. In our case it's a sign of massive govt borrowing/printing to shore up a non-productive mess. The drop in the proprtion of spending on the public sector has had to happen. But apart from that, no rebalancing of the economy has happened - w are not becoming an export led success - far from it; our balance of payments are the worst for 25yrs since the Lawson boom and bust.

  8. As I have my current account and mortgage with Nationwide I normally login at least once a week to check my finances (as one does). I was just about to go into my current account when this caught my eye


    Never seen the Borrow More button before. At first, I thought maybe NW think I've now got sufficient equity to offer me a MEW (not that I would). Then it occurred to me that maybe they're really trying to get people like me off their old variable rate (base rate +2%). Getting people to MEW is quite a crafty method especially if enough empty heads think HPI is really happening and want the new car/holiday/extension/pair of t1ts etc etc.

    What does everyone else think?

    OMG the world is as mad as a box of frogs. Too much borrowing and mewing has caused a crisis. No brains on the job in the western world just now

  9. I'm wondering if this just in my area. Aldi in St Johns precinct, Liverpool, yesterday afternoon. (Saturday.) All 5 tills working flat out and the tellers yelling 'cash only'. First time I've ever seen that. In Asda on Smithdown Road this afternoon and it was heaving, almost out of trolleys. Can't say for sure if every till was operating as it has lots but I didn't see an empty till.

    Is this just scousers or is everywhere doing mad shopping?

    I was wondering if a bigger than usual crimbo splurge is a reaction to the doom and gloom economy. Carnival in Rio sort of thing, we're poor but not on THAT holiday.

    Comments and shopping anecdotals for your area welcome, the amount of shopping being done this weekend really surprised me.

    More people are shopping in Alid and Asda than ever because more people are just above food bank status. Aldi has now opened 500 stores! It's doing very well because its like for like products are...well extraordinarily similar and no better or worse than brands, foa bout 30% less on average. Did a shop there 10 days ago. Downside is lack of range, but what there is was all good except the mince which was far too high in fat % for me. No clubcard like Tesco - I just got a massive amount of those worth hundreds, so I must have paid for them with the higher prices. No Aldi near me :(

  10. The numbers jump around a bit - we've been in a slump, then out of it, then in a double dip, then not in a double dip after all, and now in a "boomlet" - so are out of the woods?

    I keep thinking there's another piece of footwear to fall. Interest rates have to go up sometime. QE has to be either reversed, or the money allowed to feed into higher inflation. What about the fact that this boomlet is largely mortgage-credit based, and there is little business investment? Will further news from the eurozone change things? What about continuing austerity?

    I can't quite believe that in a few months we've gone from looking at a triple drip to a boom - all on the back of Help to Buy. Are we through the worst, or is the best (HPC) yet to come?

    It certainly hasn't gone away. It is being masked by a massive amount of borrowing - done on the basis that somehow future growth will be able to overcome it and begin pay it down, before it reaches a sum that can't be serviced. That at present relies on very low rates for govt bond issues or QE. In the last 30 years the govt has issued bonds for amouts over 10% on occasions! We can only afford the 2% bonds currently. If we had to roll over all the national debt at 4 or more % in future years it's hard to see how we could manage it and ever pay any back. The current policy is to resort to pumping up the housing market - it always ends in tears and in fact has functioned less well every cycle since our manufacturing base reduced in size from around 30% to the current 12%.


    Rebalance the economy they said? A betrayal of an opportunity is in progress.....The EU is showing signs of deflation and that was only halted before with massive borrowing following the 2008 bust. How long can the cracks be papered over? Wish I knew...

  11. Who are Mortgage Express then?

    By their name I assumed that they are a firm, um, specialising in giving out mortgages. But reading the thread they sound as if they do not want to be in the mortgage business at all?

    So who or what are they - some kind of mortgage arm or bad bank hived off from RBS or HBOS?

    They were the BTL lending arm of Bradford & Bingley which went bust. I have heard they are being draconian in their behaviour. They also allowed alot of silly lending on inflated and even negligent valuations. They could be sued by LL if they think this has happened as it's them that supply the valuation survey, at the borrowers expense - there has been some succesful actions of this sort by brave LL's. Probably need to form an action grouop and do it together.

  12. But ....but.. he said it was going to be a export led recovery

    The PM said at the last election: 'we need to rebalance the economy.' 'We need to start making things.' 'Houses are not productive investment.'

    However, the policy of supporting house prices has had exactly the damaging effect we all stated on this forum for years.

    "[b]With the exception of the late 1980s, Britain has not run a current account deficit of this magnitude since the Second World War. It raises concerns that the recovery is being fed by a premature return to bad habits of house price inflation and credit-driven spending rather than a revival of manufacturing and productive investment.[/b]

    The Govt has turned out to be crap. We have been so badly governed in this country for over 50 years precisely because the Englishman's castle has become a vehicle of speculation and not just a home, based on average earnings prices.

  13. Yes it is degree level qualifications that are the barrier to picking crops, working on assembly lines and serving coffee. Yes far too many go to university unnecessarily so let's have more of that shall we, and lets stoke the bubble some more whilst we are at it. An excellent plan. What a fking idiot

    Out of touch Cmeron! He has not worked out that Industry says it annot find people with the right skills - and is talking about highly qualified persons - ours all emigrate to escape high house prices and live a better life somewhere like Oz.. Not only that, Mr Gove has domne nothing to address any deficit in producing the misssing egineers or Drs etc. Let's just carry on paying for people to do media studies and golf course management as a degree. On the other end of it, lets carry on importing East Europeans (nice tho many of them are) instead of having our million youth unemployed do the very same jobs!

  14. We've had some hard knocks in recent weeks as far as a HPC is concerned people.

    H2B and considerable ramping of rising house prices in the media, mortgage sales up, Haliwide indxes up, estate agents back to their smarmy gloating selves. You can't turn on the BBC nowadays without a day passing without some house price ramping story.

    It's a bit like a HPC Rourke's Drift at the moment.

    Add to that the stocks markets are soaring seemingly forever upwards and black swans, US debt ceilings, etc, do not even put a dent in the upwards march of stocks.

    Food and fuel is also rising but the government and BOE just ignores it or removes things like food from the 'inflation basket' and replaces it with stuff we all buy like diamond encrusted golden ipod cases.

    Where are we people? What do you think the state of play is?

    90% of us a re getting a great deal poorer. Inflation is higher than wage increases. The Help to buy fiasco is another plainly stupid idea which supports rediculous prices, when in fact wages falling or stagnant would otherwise cause House price falls. They had been gently drifting, but now they are slightly stronger. Although I don't find much evidence that actual prices of sold properties have risen. In fact I still see many cuts and lots of trying it on followed by cuts. It will all blow up eventually, but how long can anyone wait...a whole 15yrs?! We have watsed the last 5 with a govt that started to talk about it sensibly but then oticed an election was only 2.5yrs away, so changed its mind. We use to hear the FSA would deal with income lending multiples, or that the reason deposits were high is that lenders had factored in overpricing, or that sales were so low the prices were drifting down. We used to hear the economy needed rebalancing and that investment 'should be in the ptoductive economy,' at least that's what I heard the PM say back in 2010. Now it's all baloney again. Very Very short sighted and hard to see when anyone will get to grips with it. The tories are to blame pre 1997 too. There was a golden opportunity to stamp on this house specualtion when homes had fallen to a reasonable low point in 1995, they should have acted around then to enforce lending principles that keep land prices in check.

  15. AFP/Yahoo 17/10/13

    'Britain will allow Chinese companies to take majority stakes in nuclear power projects in the country, finance minister George Osborne said on Thursday.

    Osborne made the announcement during a visit to the Taishan atomic power station in southern China, the British government said in a release, at the end of a trip which saw a memorandum signed on civil nuclear cooperation between the two countries.

    "Today is another demonstration of the next big step in the relationship between Britain and China -- the world's oldest civil nuclear power and the world's fastest growing civil nuclear power," Osborne said in the release.

    The document said initial Chinese stakes in nuclear power stations in Britain were likely to be minority shares, but added: "Over time stakes in subsequent new power stations could be majority stakes."'

    On any level,Osborne and Cameron are deranged.Out of the frying pan.......things must be looking bad.

    Nitwits. We should be developing Thorium powered Nuclear power not Uranium - Thorium can be used instead and does not produce radioactivity. Only need very small plants to produce he same power therefore - no need for massive concrete rings etc.

  16. Thats exactly what land owners believed they were doing 50 plus years ago when they sold land leasehold, they believed they would get their land back as agreed between 2 parties at the start of the contact.. The law changed to protect the tenants. This applies to residential not business tenancies.

    The Duke of Westminster fought in the Courts and Lost on this point about wanting 'his' land back. The Leasehold Reform Act prevents this scheme. Too much to explain here - legal essays are out on Sunday night. Also he won't get any mortgage for such an arrangement even if the seller did not realise what he was doing and agreed, without using a Solicitor ( which won't happen because the Lease will need drafting!). No lender will enter into this sort of scheme which provides no security for the loan. Also...even if he could somehow have it happen (which he won't) then he couldn't sell it either because its not suitable as security for a loan - as the lease shortens the value diminishes in his scheme ( which as I say, is impossible to set up) .

  17. Seeing reductions and houses being re-listed having been previously 'sold' in Surrey and Berkshire so the slide may be starting.

    I hope all these posting sentiments are right! THERE ARE A FEW REDUCTIONS around me in Sussex, but generally the number of home sales has picked up. All good stuff in right locations is selling well and EA's have little left! Not seeing many increases at present. I see a good number of new homes not selling where they are above £350k because, as I have said many times on here, the multiples of income required for homes in the South is staggering. It was even shown on BBC news the other day - Chelsea is 28 X average income to buy a home! Most of the south is still in 5-9 x bracket!

    It will Have to correct eventually.

  18. been waiting for 6 years for crash and its just not happening. isn't it time to just accept the government (which ever one is in) will do what ever is needed to keep the economy/house prices high, as so much of the UK economy relies on the housing market.

    Thr thing is the the Uk economy does not rely on the housing market. It is being thoroughly distorted by it and has been for over 50 yrs now. Many of our problems are relate to our handling of home ownership. We are now living in a society that has allowed massive borrowing to increase the price of land to such an extent that it causes all normal investment in the means of production - the wealth creating part of the economy - to be skewed by the temptation to invest in property instead. Homes should be steady, income based items that do not encourage speculation of the gross sort seen in Britain today. If all we do is spend our time hoping for price rises so we can remortgage and spend unearnt money which is not real wealth - then we will repeat the cycle of quite serious boom and bust over and over. This simply does not happen in most countries - ie Germany - their wages need not be so high because the cost to have a roof over your head is much lower.

    This gOt like all the others have abandoned their initial common sense of rebalancing the economy, with ' I know, lets pump up the property market to win the next election'. Pure and simple sugar fix economics which will have a BIG cost in the end. :angry:

    In my vision, we would not need any 'shared ownership' schemes. We would not need 4.5 x joint incomes mortgages to buy a tiny home. We would not need to discuss a shortage of suitable homes, or talk of first ime buyers pushing 40. No, there would be a simple enforced formula for home pricing and therefore land pricing. It works in other countries and they are the richer for it. The reason we stand as the 7th Largest economy but struggle with a our standard of living is purely because of our housing, planning and primarily our lendind policies. In addition we have a lousy policy on BTL and social housing. It either allows easy private profit and insecure tenancies, or provides too few sensible housing options because too few homes have been built for about 15 yrs.

    The Govt does not care about anything except securing your vote for the tories. I might have been one, but they now deserve no respect and missed the chance to put the housing market straight.

  19. I know someone who works in head office. There is a 35% staff turn over per year - they are proud of this. No staff discount. They have a policy of sacking people every March. He thinks they are a crap company.

    Tesco is over priced, even the 80% discounted stuff is bordering on over priced.

    So is Aldi alot better? we have tried them all except Aldi as not near us. Sainsburys cost a bit more for exactly the dsame products despite claiming a price match. Morrisons was same as Tesco but poorer quality for most things (but not NY Cheesecake which was great value). Asda is less by about 10% as they say but the quality is often less too. Lidl had a few good products at good prices but the range was very limited so only a few things attract. Some apparently low piced products are crap - eg chocolate.

    Waitrose is lovely but it costs a good 10% more when you're done even without being tempted to fancy products - M & S is same.

    Tesco has some good offers, but meat not quite as good as sainsburys - fish much cheaper though and good offers. Our Tesco Extra has got wide range, but some wine is overpriced - offers/discounted shelf not very good anymore, I agree.

  20. Hearing on the radio that house prices aren't the problem, it's the non-availability of 95% mortgages. No doubt he has some new scheme to aid the bankers in mind.

    The oddest thing is that NO ONE is mentioning how you cannot borrow more than a particular multiple of income - so people simply cannot keep borrowing more and more to keep house prices rising. Even now, most first time buyers will be doing 4x joint income in most parts of this country to buy anything atall. That is crazy!

  21. This is probably the best illustration that I have seen of the problem. Surely, everybody* must understand that this is bad?

    *obvious exception of David Cameron who wont be happy until all areas are red and a new colour has been invented for London/SE.

    Everyone send a copy to the Chancellor, PM and Steff on BBC Breakfast.....THEY JUST DO NOT GET IT.

  22. An interesting article written by someone who seems sensible about what has happened to the Fed's stimulus money

    "The Obscure, Convoluted and Scary Story"


    The paragraph that made me think a bit more laterally than I have done before when considering this...

    Now about that systemic risk — banks’ balance sheets have swelled thanks to the Fed’s ever-present purchases. These additional reserves would seem to provide added safety for banks until you look at their nature. In a vast over-simplification, the Fed has been buying the banks’ highly liquid AA+ rated securities (e.g. Treasuries, etc. — which are very easily traded on the open market) and has been replacing them with bank reserve deposits at the Fed - which are only available for interbank trade.

    The article won't open :(

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