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plummet expert

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Everything posted by plummet expert

  1. Funny thing hearing this news! Only a few weeks ago Osborne announced the effective extension of FFL by bringing forward the Help to buy scheme, which brought about much the same scheme for used homes and not just new ones! It has laready started. I have also noticed developers advertising their new little boxes (with gardens the same size as the garage), as being eligible for 'Help To Buy." So what is going on! None of it makes any sense whatsoever. I TRULY BELIEVE IT WILL ALL END IN TEARS.
  2. NO NO NO. We need to change the arena for private LL altogether. It is true that in times prior to the 1988 LL & T Act there were fewer BTL and the security for a T was so great it was impossible to finance it. There was rent control and rent inspectors. As a result, most people who could not afford to buy used council property. Now it has moved too far in the other direction - time to get it right. We have failed to provide anything like enough new social housing units. We have allowed massive speculation of land prices - it's all about the finance and mortgage market. The recipe is a housing crisis and no one can aford them -the govts response? Lend them more - where the market won't, the govt will take the risk for 4-5 x income mortgages! They are mad. People were touching on it in Question Time last night. Only the audience pointed out prices were TOO HIGH - none of the politicians dared to agree with that part....We all know why.
  3. It would be a completely mad plan and can only meant the finacial system is unable to recover - it needs a bust followed by renewal and that'sbeen prevented by pouring billions of printed/electronically craeted non existent money into the banking system. As we have found, this policy only helps bankers to large commisions and bonuses and the stock market to float upward when all economic indicators suggested it should fall harder or remain stagnant since 2008. They knowest not what they do......when it will it all come home to roost?
  4. There has been a flurry of activity in house sales. What I have noticed is this: there has been easy sales on the lower priced properties - in fact most round me are under offer or 'sold'. But, AS SOON AS YOU REACH THE PRICE of about £350k or more, the market is very quiet and much slower. People do not have sufficient income multiples to buy above this in general. The new homes near me are moving but slowly. Who wants to pay £419k for a 4 bed box with virtually no garden? You will take years to show any 'profit' and it may even fall as rates rise. The other thing is that ONLY 2000 HAVE USED HELP TO BUY, since it was brought forward. I find that figure very small - many house builders say they have hardly noticed it even though it applied to new build since March. So I think the glass ceiling may be in.
  5. All the action is in the sub £250k homes. The rest of the market remains slow or very slow above £500k.
  6. I agree. And as for Ken - he needs to understand a little more about economics and borrowing by govts. The fact is that a small amount of borrowing up to 5% gdp actually creates a slightly higher growth rateand costs less to srvice than the increase in wealth/taxes. Just like the best medicine, having more is worse. Brown knew nothing and spent, spent, spent. Clueless idiot who deserves a very poor write-up in the history books. Probably the worst Chancellor ever after Dennis Healey in the 1970's, who ended up with a similar debt and in the hands of the IMF. It really is always Labour who have snookered the economy. The tories, on the other hand, handle it better but always protect the rich and abort meritocracy.
  7. Carney was the wrong man for the job - he believs in endless house price hikes. Canada is now suffering the consequences. If we went back to wage push inflation - as happened in the 1970's, then inflation would rapidly rise and no wealth would be created . We would soon fail. House prices would rise within a year or two if people are still allowed 4-5 x income mortgages. Our comptetitiveness would again be assaulted. It will bring us another step towards decline. ONLY if we put up rates and have the price of living inn houses/homes fall to a sensible level can we cure the mess. Some banks may need to go under. We need many more to spring up and compete. The current policy is one of 'Zombie preserve and pretend all is well.' When you are told our recovery is the strongest in the world, do not beam with contentment. In our case it's a sign of massive govt borrowing/printing to shore up a non-productive mess. The drop in the proprtion of spending on the public sector has had to happen. But apart from that, no rebalancing of the economy has happened - w are not becoming an export led success - far from it; our balance of payments are the worst for 25yrs since the Lawson boom and bust.
  8. OMG the world is as mad as a box of frogs. Too much borrowing and mewing has caused a crisis. No brains on the job in the western world just now
  9. More people are shopping in Alid and Asda than ever because more people are just above food bank status. Aldi has now opened 500 stores! It's doing very well because its like for like products are...well extraordinarily similar and no better or worse than brands, foa bout 30% less on average. Did a shop there 10 days ago. Downside is lack of range, but what there is was all good except the mince which was far too high in fat % for me. No clubcard like Tesco - I just got a massive amount of those worth hundreds, so I must have paid for them with the higher prices. No Aldi near me
  10. It certainly hasn't gone away. It is being masked by a massive amount of borrowing - done on the basis that somehow future growth will be able to overcome it and begin pay it down, before it reaches a sum that can't be serviced. That at present relies on very low rates for govt bond issues or QE. In the last 30 years the govt has issued bonds for amouts over 10% on occasions! We can only afford the 2% bonds currently. If we had to roll over all the national debt at 4 or more % in future years it's hard to see how we could manage it and ever pay any back. The current policy is to resort to pumping up the housing market - it always ends in tears and in fact has functioned less well every cycle since our manufacturing base reduced in size from around 30% to the current 12%. LOOK AT THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS - NOW AT THE WORST IMBALANCE FOR 25YRS WHEN CHANCELLOR LAWSON ALLOWED THE SAME KIND OF HOUSING BOOM AND BUST TO GET OUT OF CONTROL. 1988 - HOUSE PRICE FRENZY - THEY CANNOT GO DOWN - CRAWLEY IN WEST SUSSEX ON EOF THE HIGHEST RISERS - THEN ONE OF THE HARDEST FALLERS BY 29% FROM PEAK. Rebalance the economy they said? A betrayal of an opportunity is in progress.....The EU is showing signs of deflation and that was only halted before with massive borrowing following the 2008 bust. How long can the cracks be papered over? Wish I knew...
  11. They were the BTL lending arm of Bradford & Bingley which went bust. I have heard they are being draconian in their behaviour. They also allowed alot of silly lending on inflated and even negligent valuations. They could be sued by LL if they think this has happened as it's them that supply the valuation survey, at the borrowers expense - there has been some succesful actions of this sort by brave LL's. Probably need to form an action grouop and do it together.
  12. The PM said at the last election: 'we need to rebalance the economy.' 'We need to start making things.' 'Houses are not productive investment.' However, the policy of supporting house prices has had exactly the damaging effect we all stated on this forum for years. "[b]With the exception of the late 1980s, Britain has not run a current account deficit of this magnitude since the Second World War. It raises concerns that the recovery is being fed by a premature return to bad habits of house price inflation and credit-driven spending rather than a revival of manufacturing and productive investment.[/b] The Govt has turned out to be crap. We have been so badly governed in this country for over 50 years precisely because the Englishman's castle has become a vehicle of speculation and not just a home, based on average earnings prices.
  13. Out of touch Cmeron! He has not worked out that Industry says it annot find people with the right skills - and is talking about highly qualified persons - ours all emigrate to escape high house prices and live a better life somewhere like Oz.. Not only that, Mr Gove has domne nothing to address any deficit in producing the misssing egineers or Drs etc. Let's just carry on paying for people to do media studies and golf course management as a degree. On the other end of it, lets carry on importing East Europeans (nice tho many of them are) instead of having our million youth unemployed do the very same jobs!
  14. 90% of us a re getting a great deal poorer. Inflation is higher than wage increases. The Help to buy fiasco is another plainly stupid idea which supports rediculous prices, when in fact wages falling or stagnant would otherwise cause House price falls. They had been gently drifting, but now they are slightly stronger. Although I don't find much evidence that actual prices of sold properties have risen. In fact I still see many cuts and lots of trying it on followed by cuts. It will all blow up eventually, but how long can anyone wait...a whole 15yrs?! We have watsed the last 5 with a govt that started to talk about it sensibly but then oticed an election was only 2.5yrs away, so changed its mind. We use to hear the FSA would deal with income lending multiples, or that the reason deposits were high is that lenders had factored in overpricing, or that sales were so low the prices were drifting down. We used to hear the economy needed rebalancing and that investment 'should be in the ptoductive economy,' at least that's what I heard the PM say back in 2010. Now it's all baloney again. Very Very short sighted and hard to see when anyone will get to grips with it. The tories are to blame pre 1997 too. There was a golden opportunity to stamp on this house specualtion when homes had fallen to a reasonable low point in 1995, they should have acted around then to enforce lending principles that keep land prices in check.
  15. Nitwits. We should be developing Thorium powered Nuclear power not Uranium - Thorium can be used instead and does not produce radioactivity. Only need very small plants to produce he same power therefore - no need for massive concrete rings etc.
  16. The Duke of Westminster fought in the Courts and Lost on this point about wanting 'his' land back. The Leasehold Reform Act prevents this scheme. Too much to explain here - legal essays are out on Sunday night. Also he won't get any mortgage for such an arrangement even if the seller did not realise what he was doing and agreed, without using a Solicitor ( which won't happen because the Lease will need drafting!). No lender will enter into this sort of scheme which provides no security for the loan. Also...even if he could somehow have it happen (which he won't) then he couldn't sell it either because its not suitable as security for a loan - as the lease shortens the value diminishes in his scheme ( which as I say, is impossible to set up) .
  17. I hope all these posting sentiments are right! THERE ARE A FEW REDUCTIONS around me in Sussex, but generally the number of home sales has picked up. All good stuff in right locations is selling well and EA's have little left! Not seeing many increases at present. I see a good number of new homes not selling where they are above £350k because, as I have said many times on here, the multiples of income required for homes in the South is staggering. It was even shown on BBC news the other day - Chelsea is 28 X average income to buy a home! Most of the south is still in 5-9 x bracket! It will Have to correct eventually.
  18. Thr thing is the the Uk economy does not rely on the housing market. It is being thoroughly distorted by it and has been for over 50 yrs now. Many of our problems are relate to our handling of home ownership. We are now living in a society that has allowed massive borrowing to increase the price of land to such an extent that it causes all normal investment in the means of production - the wealth creating part of the economy - to be skewed by the temptation to invest in property instead. Homes should be steady, income based items that do not encourage speculation of the gross sort seen in Britain today. If all we do is spend our time hoping for price rises so we can remortgage and spend unearnt money which is not real wealth - then we will repeat the cycle of quite serious boom and bust over and over. This simply does not happen in most countries - ie Germany - their wages need not be so high because the cost to have a roof over your head is much lower. This gOt like all the others have abandoned their initial common sense of rebalancing the economy, with ' I know, lets pump up the property market to win the next election'. Pure and simple sugar fix economics which will have a BIG cost in the end. :angry: In my vision, we would not need any 'shared ownership' schemes. We would not need 4.5 x joint incomes mortgages to buy a tiny home. We would not need to discuss a shortage of suitable homes, or talk of first ime buyers pushing 40. No, there would be a simple enforced formula for home pricing and therefore land pricing. It works in other countries and they are the richer for it. The reason we stand as the 7th Largest economy but struggle with a our standard of living is purely because of our housing, planning and primarily our lendind policies. In addition we have a lousy policy on BTL and social housing. It either allows easy private profit and insecure tenancies, or provides too few sensible housing options because too few homes have been built for about 15 yrs. The Govt does not care about anything except securing your vote for the tories. I might have been one, but they now deserve no respect and missed the chance to put the housing market straight.
  19. So is Aldi alot better? we have tried them all except Aldi as not near us. Sainsburys cost a bit more for exactly the dsame products despite claiming a price match. Morrisons was same as Tesco but poorer quality for most things (but not NY Cheesecake which was great value). Asda is less by about 10% as they say but the quality is often less too. Lidl had a few good products at good prices but the range was very limited so only a few things attract. Some apparently low piced products are crap - eg chocolate. Waitrose is lovely but it costs a good 10% more when you're done even without being tempted to fancy products - M & S is same. Tesco has some good offers, but meat not quite as good as sainsburys - fish much cheaper though and good offers. Our Tesco Extra has got wide range, but some wine is overpriced - offers/discounted shelf not very good anymore, I agree.
  20. They once thought it only ever went up? Now they know there can be a deflation! Actually noticed quite a few price cuts lately. eg 375k to 350k http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-27311025.html
  21. The oddest thing is that NO ONE is mentioning how you cannot borrow more than a particular multiple of income - so people simply cannot keep borrowing more and more to keep house prices rising. Even now, most first time buyers will be doing 4x joint income in most parts of this country to buy anything atall. That is crazy!
  22. Everyone send a copy to the Chancellor, PM and Steff on BBC Breakfast.....THEY JUST DO NOT GET IT.
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