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plummet expert

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Posts posted by plummet expert

  1. Basically a 100% mortgage + fig-leaf (a very small fig-leaf)...

    Just out of curiosity, did you spot this on the Priced-out FB page?

    IT IS SHOCKING - ABSOLUTELY SHOCKING! NOTHING HAS BEEN LEARNT ABOUT CREDIT FUELLED BOOMS !! The pruchasers can even use the developers line of 'brokers' to raise the 10% deposit !!!!

    This is exactly what keeps prices sky high and stops them returning to what an income can support. If only I was Chancellor or PM none of this woud be happening - there would have been a proper correction - a proper set of lending and savinga arrangements in place - a big fall in land prices - no more mum and dad banks or even grandad banks needed - no more equity which does not represent the increase in wages over a long time. No more Carney.......

  2. got in there thirty seconds before the other thread, can the mods merge them?

    if people get spooked by Monday we might see queues back. northern rock was small try compared to HSBC, this would be BIG TROUBLE.

    Yes, other thread was me and is now posted in yours. The BIG question is whether HSBC in the UK is actually limiting withdrawals! If you know anyone having problems then please set up a post. Everyone else add to it. The next question is whether UK Hsbc is in any wa y a separate legal entity which can survive any catastrophe in China. I suspect firmly not if any sniff of limiting withdrawing your own money is true.

  3. My whole business revolves around importing everything from China.

    One product line i can get made in around 18 different factories in China,some better than others.In the UK not one factory could make it.

    Another product line i can get made in 7 factories in China but in the UK none.

    The first product costs me £21.80 a unit in China FOB (onto the cargo ship) and sells in the uk at £79.99.Landed to me with all extras (VAT,Import Duty,Shiping,Lorry,paperwork) takes the final landed cost up to £33.00 a unit.

    The rent on a small site to manufacture alone would cost me more than the landed price from China.

    The business rates would add on another chunk.

    Wages another 20%,

    EU rules etc and paperwork another 14%

    The end result is id be selling at a loss if i manufactured them here instead of a 120% markup if i import from China.

    Not only that but i dont need to employ anyone,dont need any fixed costs.

    No Dave these factories arent coming back from China,,not unless their costs go up by 100%+ while ours dont move,we leave the EU,we slash red tape and we make employing people cheap again.

    The only thing i need here is somewhere to warehouse,and that is why instead of a factory industrial estates are now simply for warehousing.

    In blunt terms they are there to hold Chinese made goods until shipped to the end customer.

    Dave ,the expert on the economics of Asian/UK manufacturing.

    I am sure what you say is generally true. However its not wrong to try and get more goods manufactured here. Costs in China have risen quite sharply of late. If any manufacturing does return in any quantity worth discussing, then it won't be because a Tory govt is a success, but only because something became economic.

  4. If they're going to keep them permanently low, and rest of MPC likely to follow whatever Carney says... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12997437

    Then can only hope they trigger correction to stop the housing unfairness (hyperfinflated prices / too many overleveraged landlords being kept cosy) in some other way, where keeping low rates is justified.

    Or markets trigger it, but guess it might only test sterling, but hopefully in stress testing mortgages hard, and that HTB2 really needs to go.

    Just pain upon pain for non-owners / savings / patient upsizers. Those who made sensible decisions not to overborrow for a home, trying to avoid putting their families at risk of financial difficulties, thrown aside for those who did. All the associated doubt and anxiety that's been piled on those who did the right thing, when others rewarded and protected for being reckless.

    Yes! Carney was always going to be the wrong man for the job. He has no clue and left Canada with a housing crisis. He has already signalled end of his 'Forward Guidance Target' policy, little more than 6 months after trunpeting its appearance. He has already started to back away from his 7% target for unemployment to consider rate rises. He is a lightweight. Frankly I would do better. I would control the banks with sensible regulation and befoe long the long term price of Land would be control itself. Before long the mal-investment of land speculation would be mostly replaced with investment in productive industry. Before long we would not be worrying that derivatives could sink us, but only sink a few investment banks in any future crisis. Why are we letting a wave of foreign investors pump up London's house market ? Other countries do not automatically allow non residents to purchase!

  5. Farage said there was no discrimination against women in Stockbrokerland. You could see LC was not happy.She then launched into a tirade that had me flinching. And i wasn`t sat next to her. Certainly worth a watch.

    I suspect that Farage is broadly right. You have to accept the biological facts of life. People do not sit about saying, 'let's not have any women here.' They say, who is the best person for the job. Less women put themselves forward in the city. Therefore the result is less women reach the top there. Some other occupations may attract them more - lawyers for example - now more women qualifying than men. Very often more lady GP's in a practice than men - but more liekly to be part time.

    Louise - get a life!!! UKIP at least does not believe in any form of discrimination including, 'positive discrimination'. On that, I am in agreement.

  6. More at the Guardian here: UK recovery hits Labour support

    Is the next election going to be closer than has been thought? Will UKIP still scupper the Tory's hopes??

    (links in the article are from the original source)

    I suspect the next election will produce another hung Parliament. There will be less Liberals, Labour as the biggest Party but no majority, Cons will be lose a handful of seats and UKIP will probably get a few seats in specific areas which they could win from any party actually looking at their local results.

    The tories will scupper their own hopes. Whilst they have ignited yet another DEBT FUELLED BOOM BASED ON HOUSE PRICES, the cost of living in this country is so high that people cannot reconcile their experience with the announcements that things are improving. In fact - Manufacturing dropped by 4% in the last qtr, the balance of payments is in trouble and worst for 25 yrs AND savings have fallen to a 40 yr low. All the signs of a forthcoming crisis then, just as Carswell says and I have been stating is the way of UK govts for over 50yrs now. That is why we have no manufacturing base to speak of...endless pump priming and price rises which cause wage rises and no actual rise in wealth except for a very few. Even 'right to buy' council houses are falling into the hands of LL's. A third of them in London already! FOOL BRITTANIA

  7. We have another hero. Douglas Carswell.

    Well now, this man is talking economic sense! In fact he needs to join UKIP right away. There is no one in any mainstream party speaking about the true state of the economy, the credit boom, the wrongs sort of growth, the exportless recovery, the balance of payments in crisis, the savings rate at a 40 year low. The signs of an Osborne self destruct are ll in place. UK Titanic is ready to sink again, but only after the elction of course. This time and more unusually, it will be a Conservative mess. Mrs T is now turning, but sadly only in her grave.

  8. This is a terrific article, thanks for posting. But the argument that the big housebuilders are sitting on such huge land banks seems very tenuous. They hold options to buy, not actual title, on some agricultural land, that just might (NIMBY's and craven local councils permitting) become available for building. That's a very long way from the accepted definition of a landbank, as owning land with existing planning permission to build.

    That apart it's well argued and well worth a read.

    We should also note that Options to purchase Land will be at a price to be fixed AT THE TIME OF PURCHASE - not therefore the agricultural price. Having negotiated such documents for Land Owners, the attraction is a payment just for an option for a period. When the period runs out, the Option is finished unless exercised. The developer cannot usually force a sale unless they manage to obtain planning consent and that's when the price would rocket to developable land values. They spend alot of time and money trying to get planning consent! So, it's a win win for the Land Owner.

  9. A vote for UKIP in a Tory marginal is a vote for labour

    I’m not in a marginal so my vote is essentially meaningless

    THAT'S NOT TRUE! UKIP are taking votes from all the parties depending on the area. Sometimes the Liberals lose their votes - eg Eastleigh by-election. Sometimes they take a large slice of TORY VOTE AND IN OTHER PLACES THE LABOUR VOTE HAS COLLAPSED. What is common to all theses scenarios is that a substantial number of votes from all Parties are going UKIP.

  10. That is my way of thinking too, I think a substantial increase in the UKIP vote will frighten the main three parties so that is where I intend to vote next time.

    The three 'main ' parties are already very scared of UKIP - It isrising fast around me in Sussex and now the opposition for local govt. In fact, LibDems will lose out in seats next time, to any other party in the wings, but the main movers will be UKIP who will get seats in Parliament. There are a good 20 areas in this country ready to go UKIP. It is no longer a protest vote. People don't believe in Cameron's phony attempt to 'renegotiate' our terms of EU membership. It's not possible and the EU always comes back at you whatever promise they make and you can't trust them! You can't trust Cameron to hold a rferendum on the EU that is not a straight IN/OUT question. Immigration is a top topic and will only be rsolved by having the Borders back by leaving the EU.

  11. Anything is possible! But, unless we base our efforts on incresing our manufacturing base and exporting capacity, any such idea will remain very unlikely - we will derail from this current upswing within 3 yrs as it's based on the sands of house price pump priming. Doomed at its inception and destined NOT to produce long term wealth.

  12. One thing I've learned over the years is that interest rates move sharply when nobody is expecting it.

    And what's more irritating is that this rise in the value of sterling does not relflect a strong economy, but just a pumped up property market. In fact we have a very wobbly manufacturing and exporting sector - exports have been falling in recent months. A rise in sterling will make that trend even more likely. The very policy of house pump prime will actually choke off the rather tame recovery in manufacturing and exporting that appeared for a while. The balanc of payments are the worst for 25yrs and savings at their lowest for 40 yrs. All this signals is trouble ahead. The pound should be falling, so this is a distortuon we just don't need. Rising interest rates actually are needed to restore a functioning real economy. Carney has no clue and has left Canada in a house price bubble mees he created.

    I do think the unexpected will happen in 2014-15 and before the election.

  13. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/20/uk-britain-economy-idUKBRE9BJ0CT20131220

    They can pump out all the propaganda they want. They can manipulate the statistics and economic reports all they want but the recovery is still built on unsustainable debt. Nothing has improved.

    The depression hasn't even begun.

    [b]AND I have said the growth we see is unbalanced frequently on this site- Don't take it from me:[/b]

    [b]"The Bank of England and economists have also been concerned that the recovery is unbalanced in a way that could ultimately prove unsustainable - with too great a reliance on household consumption and insufficient exports and business investment.

    Friday's data showed business investment starting to improve but painted a bleak picture on trade.

    "If the recovery is to be sustained at a healthy pace, it really does need a marked, extended pick up in business investment and for exports to improve markedly," said Howard Archer, an economist with IHS Global Insight."[/b]

  14. The economy is not recovering in any balanced sort of way! Just as I have been saying recently, the balance of paymenst is a disatser, indicating we are not paying our way! Also, the export led recovery is non existent - it is nothing more than a very weak recovery indeed with a mini housing price boom stuck on top. Read it below....real wages are falling, savings are falling, people need food banks in ever greater numbers, people cannot afford rents, interest rates are too low and distorting everything - including holding up home prices. A few rich people are doing very nicely on the wave of free money flowing into banks at the press of a button on the false basis that we need this to cause growth and pay back our debts with it.


  15. I think the British economy gets a raw deal on here.

    Out of the 600 companies in the Euro Stoxx 600 index we are the biggest contributor, with 185 of them to France's 82 and Germany's 66. Out of our 185 only 33 are finance related. We also have large amounts (relative to other countries) in industrial goods & services, utilities, food and beverage, media, healthcare, basic resources and chemicals.

    This is true. BUT, we have far fewer small and medium size enterprises. Our finance based co's are also a far higher proportion of the 'economy' than is prudent - so quoting the number of Co's and not their proportion of the economy is misleading. We have a manufacturing base which has shrunk to about 12% of the economy, from over 30% in 1979. Our exports have been falling lately, our savings the lowest for 40 yrs, our balance of payments the worst fro 25yrs. Germany has a far more balanced economy, with a high proportion f manaufacturing and exports are healthy. Their land costs are controlled and therefore their cost of living is much lower. We are a mess because of govt decisions over the last 60yrs and leading to very high house prices and therefore wage costs and now a,lower standard of living. Interestingly UKIP policies would have amuch better chance of correcting these problems...

  16. Your SPT started on 25 Aug and your tenancy periods run from 25th to 24th of each month. Your notice should expire on 24th Jan. The date that rent is paid doesn't come into the equation.

    I agree with the above answer. Rent can be apportioned and I presume must have been at the start in order to get to payments being on 1st of the month. So you can pay to 24th and leave. The only thing which can alter this is a term in your agreement - so you need to read it or ask the agent where this clause is, otherwise it's the 24th.

  17. Surprising how UKIP are totally controlling the narrative now? Should be longer, 12 months maybe? People shouldn`t come here unless they have a job and/or savings to support themselves for at least 6 months IMO. Will this have any knock on for BTL I wonder :lol:

    They may not be able to do this under EU law. Even if they can, UKIP are the pressure for it to happen atall. The Govt answer IS NOT the answer - we need to stop people just arriving and trying to find housing, using the NHS, sending their children to our schools, claiming child benefit/ even sending it back to Bulgaria if they come alone, and having to rent the precious few homes around.

    If you come from a non EU country the rule is now 5 yrs until you get permanent leave to remain - then you can apply for benefits - you must pass the stringent entry requirements and have somewhere to live or be supported or have a sponsor and or job etc.

    We have no room for any more citizens. We should behave like the USA, Canada, Australia and almost anywhere else. Unfortunately the EU wants to become one country and Harmonise you all. Do you want that? The cost of being in the EU is staggering - it does NOT bring us more jobs - we only hear 'fear' reasons for remaining in the EU - there's nothing positive about it. It should be a customs agreement/ trade agreement and nothing else.

  18. Basically everyone is saying house prices are too high and compared to salary multiples i completely agree, the premise of my argument is so what! What we fail to see us that we are becoming poor as a nation.

    Just like the welfare state/nhs will fail because we can no longer afford to pay for it we as a nation are going to be unable to afford good quality housing with all the mod cons! Just because we are used to being able to afford something in the past does not mean we will be able to do so in the future. If wage arbitration and globalisation mean that we can only have average salaries of 25k, then we can only really afford say 65k houses, i think even 3x multiples will soon be unaffordable due to inflation of essential items. We are a poor nation with a bloated financial sector that will collapse and not a large enough productive economy to sustain the standard of living inc housing that we are used to so the future will be kit houses on small plots! Get over it nobody owes us a high standard if living it has to be earn't and we ain't doing that.

    An interesting way to look at it! The problem is we have govts who allow a false market in housing to arise, by very lax lending. That benefits only those who buy at the beginning of the cycle after a crash - ie 1994 to 97 buyers are best off at present. Our inability to prosper as an exporting nation/ + financial crisis, should have resulted in a fall in house prices and the underlying land price dropping a great deal. Only because of artificially held down rates and lending of 4 x incomes or more, has this market survived. None of the current policies including QE will prove to have helped - should not have happened except for about 1 yr after 2008. Sorry, but History will judge all of it and Carney to have been very wrong.

  19. Dissonance is the word.

    Been done many times here the importance of HPI (debt and the release of imaginary equity) to the UK economy. It is a confidence trick. What has caught us out on here is the gravity-defying, 'at any cost' propping up of false markets for short-term political gain.

    It will be written up in history as another glorious treasury led mistake - Barber boom, Lawson Boom, Brown Boom, Osborne boom. When will we learn? : they were all based on land and property and lending/borrowing too much.

    It has struck me that the only period of strong recovery without a balance of payments crisis in my life time was afteer the property crash of 1989-1994. It in fact feed us temporarily from the nonsense this causes. We alos resumed a free currency by pulling out of the Exchnage Rate Mechanism ( the precursor to joinig the Euro, which thank God went wrong for us).

  20. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/30/uk-iceland-debt-idUKBRE9AT08Y20131130

    Pensions traded to pay off the mortgage and then house sold later to pay for your pension?

    Still housing is the road to wealth.

    Funny how the IMF are warning them about their schemes and saying nothing about our moronic house buying /mortgage schemes and incredible govt borrowing. Our national debt is about 1.3 trillion pounds and rising. It is more than likely that before we can get anywhere near paying it back, rather than adding to it, rates will rise and make it unservicable. ONLY because we were not in the EURO have we been able, so far, to avoid the fate of Greece and Spain. Will we avoid it altogether? It would be a surprise and very lucky indeed. The growth we are currenlt told about is phoney: the balance of payments has fallen off a cliff and a the 'surpise' fall in exports is its partner. So only the housing ponzi scheme is actually causing any of it !! I am not surprised.

  21. Personally I think the bankers were to blame. The borrowers (if they want to buy a house) will have to out bid everybody else so have little choice

    Mervyn King rightly pointed out that people will borrow 'whatever they are allowed to borrow.' Frankly it is vital that strict laws and rules apply to borrowing for land or property to avoid the speculation frenzy that has so damaged the British economy for so many generations. Look at the story from Exeter as we speak - an off plan buying frenzy for student apartments. The price of a home in the UK, particularly the south, is so far removed from most of the rest of EU, it is incredible it has not collapsed already. Only low interest rates and spectacularly stupid lending policies and 'help to buy' schemes are holding it up. It certainly has NO anchor in reality.


  22. PMQs last Wednesday - at 31 minutes 42 seconds (near the end)

    Says that house prices are going up whilst real wages are going down. Asks whether rising IRs will create a subprime crisis in the future.

    VERY INTERESTING. What is being missed is the huge deterioration in the balance of payments and huge fall in exports in the last qtr. This is because our silly chancellor has started growth by unwise borrrowing on the back of high income mulriple mortgages, made artificially cheap. The growth is FAKE. 0.8% GROWTH, when real incomes are falling or stagnant. It's FAKE Growth when exports fall substantially and we have the worst balance of payments position since the very stupid Lawson property boom of 1988. Mark my words....it will not work and because successive silly giovts have played this trick over 50 yrs, it works less well each time the drug is administered. All we get is less productive industry and more mal investment and another fiancial headache to face.

    The Chancellor's clothes are coming off and he will soon be down to his underpants.

  23. Like thousands of lifelong Conservative voters planning to vote UKIP?

    UKIP now very strong in Sussex. Many reasons including idiotic economics, batty immigration policy which cannot be negotiated as suggested in the news today AND no trust in PM to bring about a proper fair EU in/out referendum - I think there is now a good majority in favour of levaing the EU and just having a normal trade deal, like any other country outside the EU.

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