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plummet expert

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Everything posted by plummet expert

  1. YES, HOORAY - ANYTHING BUT THE STATUS QUO IS BETTER. THE NORWEIGIAN EXAMPLE IS FINE BY ME. I want our borders back and full control here over everything - just a free trade area - period.
  2. Yes, it is a stupidly complex and expensive way to give a tax concession which also appears as a benefit for those doing nothjing but having children. The latter used to receive 'family income supplement'. The working persons alternatively got child benefit only. But now after a Gordon Idiot Chancellor came upon an 'idea', by 2008 people earning up to the late 40k's were able to receive extra money for nothing! It has been trimmed back to about a £32k pa cut off recently, but is still stupid. It would have been much easier and cheaper to administer a tax cut for working people and continue with a benefit for others. All this rubbish about 16 hrs a week etc has distorted the labour market aswell, with part time work for low paid being as well paid, inc the TC's as someone working full time. IDS is on the right track to have a universal benefit. Just work out what support the person/family actually need and pay that - not have them apply for loads of benefits, some of which cannot be paid with others, making it all a nonsense - and an industry for the CAB's to work out for confused claimants.
  3. The cliff is in part a reversal of the Bush Tax cuts. So the US economy lived with higher taxes before. Tax take did NOT rise upon the tax rate cuts put in by Bush - reason? The country is nuked with debt and growth is abnormal and patchy. In previous times there have been many times when tax cuts produced more revenue for the treasury, but not now. Frankly the US needs to balance its books. The current print and spend is not paying for itself with growth sufficient to pay off the debt and interest - they're in too deep like most of the West and particularly like the UK. Imagine though the situation where 2 million people lose unemployment benefit !! I hope for serious cuts and tax hikes but still retaining helpfor those who cannot find work
  4. I don't think many people see it as you suggest. It is mainly about political control, not about believing a withdrawal could solve any economic woes. It is not a distraction and becoming an importnat issue as to whether you want to become a member state in the US of Europe or not. That's where it is headed in its very undemocratic way.
  5. Well they would say that wouldn't they! If these bank had wanted to be in Frankfurt they would have gone there anyway - in fact they are there already. The US, Japan and HK all amange very well outside the Eu or any equivalent. My seriously senior city bank insider says it's nothing to do with destabilisng or anything else - just their own fears that a govt might actually get a grip of them much more easily outside the Eu than in it. In fact, he says the shake-up would do the whole financial system a power of good. Don't believe self interested bankers - remember what happened when Brown et al agreed a soft touch to bank regulation? The 'fear card' is traded in every way possible in response to the EU leaving debate. However, it has never actually been a srong argument, just an emotion based on very little. The EU is trying to control the financial system whether we like it or not. So being out of their control would be, like being outside the Euro currency, exactly the right approach.
  6. Is it because of the fiscal cliff or is it because I is black? It could be black Tuesday or purple Friday? De world is runnin' on hot air, dat's for sure, dude.
  7. Why not require people to swap with tenants who need an extra bedroom? Give them reasonable notice - like 12 months - Pay for a bit of decorating if they are older folk. It hardly seems fair that someone in a 2 or 3 bedder who now lives alone or even with spouse, but no kids, can carry on ocupying a home indefinitely when a young couple with baby have to stay in a one bed place as there are no homes available. A council home/social housing, should not be for life and be open to review every 7 years or so. People who can afford to move into private rentals or buy should then do so on a one year notice.
  8. OMG ! A perfect storm which will batter the Spanish property market for years. At least their balance of payments has improved.
  9. Clearly in the areas north of Oxfordshire and the proper North there have been continuing house price falls. There is even the first signs of stabilising 'up north'. The job scene is tougher there and lots have moved south. However, the South is still in bubble territory. It seems that gentle falls in most areas are to be expected in the South. Vendors are showing signs of accepting lower offers. To support this, low interest rates must prevail and if they don't then I expect much harsher falls in the south and more in the north too. Southend you say? It's statistical rubbish. Rises of 1-2% were recorded by estate agents. A flight from expensive London property being the reason for anything to happen there atall. If you are buying , then 20% below asking price is the start point. You won't be laughed at except in the very most sought after roads/areas.
  10. Oh dear! Stainless Sam had no handle on your point did he?! On another point - the article summoned up the idea that as the 2008 crash was not predicted by economists then economics is a tainted subject. In fact had anyone known the full extent of the subprime lending behaviour ( you remember - lending to people with no income for mortgages etc particularly in the US!) then all sane persons would have remarked that it must end in tears and with a crash. Had we all known in any depth about the derivative markets and the way they behaved, then again most sane people would have said we are riding for a fall which will take banks down. So I don't think much of the article. Monetarism is not without some merit. We have certainly embraced something rather contrary just now with massive QE. I am sure that as soon as the velocity through our economy of this enormous unearnt pecuniary wealth starts to rev up, then inflation will follow. Otherwise, if borrowing begins to fall and growth picks up sufficiently to pay our way and actually reduce the national debt, without true austerity, then those who say borrow more and all will heal must be right. If they are, then we need never worry again....print print...hmmm
  11. Doesn't matter you say! The good ol' chancellor told us all some time ago that as a result of his austerity policies we were safae as houses from downgrades and therefore higher interest rates on GILTS. Well we are not and I said that over a year ago on here. The current policy is to simply carry on pretending that growth and govt receipts will suddenly overtake the debt problem. There isn't any growth is there? The employment situation is complex - lots of pensioners carrying on working - lots of full time jobs being replaced 4 to 1 with part time jobs. You ain't seen nothin' yet. We're in a slo mo crash.
  12. They keep on having people of about 55 retire on 'packages' which cost a lot of money so they can claim they saved something. It's a different budget, so it looks like a saving. But these enhanced pension deals are very costly and the person with most experience is lost leaving others to fill in. Of course you can do that for a while in many areas and barely notice. Maybe a little more to go. BUT you will soon reach the irreducible minimum for a function to be carried out. I am aware of this in the Court system. They have reached bottom this December. Any more cuts and there will be chaos. Already there are costs being created by this service causing problems ,mal functions and extra hearings. The family law legal aid cuts will add extra problems from April. Lots of law firms are set to make redundancies. It has reached the point where any more cuts will actually cost more somewhere else in the system. Some parts of Legal aid, far from being a 'gravy train' as the press would make out, are teetering on bankruptcy - rates of pay overall have remained broadly the same for 15 years in legal aid. So, don't believe what you read in the newspapers. Our fail safe justice system is gravely ill. The only reason Osborne has had any joy is that so many firms have gone to a 4 day week or the like, instead of making redundancies. Also, the number of part time jobs created has soaked up alot of full time redundant persons, masking the true unemployed or underemployed population. If there had been staright forward redundancies, you would be seeing 3 million + unemployed right now.
  13. The invented money mortgage scam the Govt hails as some sort of great idea is the WORST POLICY this coalition shambles have thought of yet. I do not think Cameron and his Chancellor have any clue. Sorry to have to say it. But I am glad to see the March of the UKIP vote in the 3 by elections lkast night! The Tories are warned...if they do not sort out the Eu REFERENDUM by or before the next election date they will lose to LABOUR. Tories will vote UKIP in massive numbers.
  14. You must be joking if you think that Mr Mark Carney is "simply the best" possible candidate as new Governor of the Bank of England! He has presided over one of the three largest property bubbles in the world. He has no clue how to help the resource empty British economy. Read all about it here http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/11/26/dear-england/ and look forward to a further exploding bubble in our own economy, no doubt hailed as an improvement headed towards an election.
  15. Ex corporation, but looks nice enough and bigger than alot of small private homes. probably fair value at £60k even if it needs £30k of modernising
  16. It is exactly that blag and more ...this time they are printing all the 'money' and what's more the figures for full time workers have fallen sharply whilst the figures for part time workers have risen steeply in the last 3 years. Hey presto we can all say unemployment is falling and that employment is the highest in history ( with a little help from an immigrant population). IT IS ALL MASSAGED STATISTICS AS USUAL...NOT UNFORTUNATELY 'BUSINESS AS USUAL'.
  17. Sadly this Govt have no clue. Labour had no clue. They are not stopping the debt because like almost all EU countries and the USA, it has gone past the point of putting it right. This is as a result of the whole western world having a debt fuelled binge at the same time. Therefore we cannot restructure and just grow out of it - the countries we trade with are all in/about to be in recession/ or virtually stagnant. Even China is actually stagnant - their posted growth is a lie. They are in deep trouble. Our national debt has now more than tripled in 4 years to £1.11 trillion. The game is up. 100's of thousands of Bulgarians and others are about to arrive after the 5 year stop on them coming is soon over. We need to leave the EU and fast. We need our borders back. This is not racist - there's not a racist thought in my head and I hate the BNP. But even immigrants when polled agree that mass immigration needs to stop to the UK. There is no more room or money or housing to support it.
  18. There is alot of truth in this. The old Maxim goes that 'sometimes you have to be cruel to be kind'. That would have meant having a much deeper recession, which brought down house prices and other assets, together with weak businesses. Then the path would be clear for a sustained period of growth, with lower wage and cost of living problems, less hanger on businesses causing good ones problems etc. The Coalition missed the boat, listened to the stupid QE siren and thought you can gently deflate asset values by introducing a bit of inflation and stagnation. Bad policy and bad results are following. We are doing as the japanese did and thought you must save the banks come what may. Well, this has meant we are supporting them endlessly instead of the alternative..we could have allowed proper collapse, then instant prchase from receivers for asset value only. A takeover and restart with nil debts; then privatise later. Better than QE. Investors in those banks would not agree because they would have lost their investment, but the Country as a whole would have benefitted by now. Still...what do I know? We certainly should never have allowed our banks to take each other over and have so few of them it is dangerous. We should not have allowed Building Societies to convert to banks either. So short sighted. I knew it would all end in tears over ten years ago.
  19. I agree with all the caution posted here. It is a very nice flat above restaurant though. I would check if the other flats are rented; whether the one your'e interested in was rented out before it came up for sale. The thing is that lenders are much more likely to say no to a private residential mortgage above a shop or restaurant. Traditionally they were all rented and the owner may own the entire building or the lending is a high deposit BTL only. You really need to think carefully as to whether it can be resold without hassle even if you can find finance.
  20. The debate about why the U.K. is having a worse recovery than the U.S. has offered up every possible cause except the most likely one. Policy makers, parliamentarians and economists variously point to the government’s austerity program, insufficient monetary stimulus, a broken and beleaguered banking sector and the euro-zone crisis as reasons the U.K. has double-dipped after registering the most tepid of rebounds from the deepest downturn since the 1930s. So what’s at fault? The U.K. is awash in debt collateralized by asset prices that are inflated way above the levels the economy’s prospects can support. Both borrowers and lenders are frozen by fear and uncertainty of what the real asset values might be. The U.K. economy’s total debt load stood at 507% of gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2011, according to a McKinsey debt report published earlier this year. This stood a near second to Japan’s 512% and was nearly double the U.S.’s 279% in a list of 10 major developed economies (Japan, U.K., Spain, France, Italy, South Korea, U.S., Germany, Australia and Canada). Now, the bulk of that was made up of the U.K. banking sector’s liabilities, which stood at 219% of GDP, largely down to the U.K.’s role as a financial center. But the debt profile over the whole economy was unhealthy. Household debt, at 98% of GDP, was second only to Australia’s 105% and well in excess of the U.S.’s 87%. Non-financial corporate debt was 109% of GDP, third highest and far in excess of the U.S.’s 72%. And, finally, government debt was hovering at 80%, a level that economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart identified as a danger threshold for economies. Authorities like the Bank of England shrug off these numbers. Yes, financial-sector debt was high but the domestic economy was sound. Households and companies could sustain their debt levels because of the high asset prices against which they borrowed–in large part, houses and commercial real estate. But, looking at housing suggests this view is wrong. Against long-run metrics, such as price-to-household earnings or price-to-rent ratios, U.K. real estate is still significantly overvalued, probably in the order of 30% countrywide to 50% within London. Prices at the peak could only be sustained by terrible banking practice, like 125% mortgages, to which the Bank of England turned a blind eye when it wasn’t actively offering encouragement. Even at low interest rates, U.K. households are finding it hard to meet the newer–and more realistic–requirements to raise a mortgage. It seems abundantly apparent that the debt boom of the decade leading up to the financial crisis made the British think they were richer than they were. They now realize that productivity growth and the economy’s general potential are lower than they thought, and that the starting point for reconsidering the economy’s future shouldn’t be from the heights of the bubble in 2007, but, rather, from somewhere closer to the mid-1990s. This has caused a collapse in housing turnover, which the Bank of England and the government want to overturn by giving banks as many incentives as possible to go back to the sort of malpractice that got the economy to where it was in the first place. That’s because the Bank of England is committed to sparing those people who made terrible borrowing and lending decisions during the boom times from suffering the consequences. It’s this unsustainable debt load and the necessary process of deleveraging as both borrowers and lenders disbelieve the rosy version of the future that the Bank of England is trying to paint that has created a zombie economy. Ultimately, the Bank of England hopes to get rid of this overvaluation by inflating the problem away; in other words, by transferring money from prudent savers to feckless bankers and borrowers. But unless inflation jumps sharply, this could take a long time. By the way, Australian economist Steve Keen, who is attracting ever more attention and support, is one of the major proponents of this thinking. The U.S. has managed to stage a better recovery, not because of the Federal Reserve’s or the Obama administration’s attempts to put a floor under house-price falls, but precisely because prices fell and because banks and households were forced to restructure these debts. A failure to accept harsh truths and allow asset prices to adjust is why the U.K. economy is where it is. http://blogs.wsj.com...zombie-economyThis article is spot on. It is exactly why I often say that interest rates are too low and actually damaging our economy and future prospects of a proper receovery. This Govt is absolutely clueless - probably slightly better than Brown though. Unfortunately they have missed the boat for this Parliament - they should have had two interest rates long ago - base rates for banks to lend on property should have been 4 then 5% from May 2010, connoting mortgages of 5% up to around 7.5% ( for business it could have been much lower). Homes would have fallen about 25% or more by now and may be stabilising like in the good ol' USA. ASSET PRICES NEED TO RETURN TO THE REAL WORLD. UPHOLDING FALSE MARKETS IS A RECIPE FOR SLOW OR NO GROWTH. PE 4 PM
  21. Are these Greek dips? Bring on the Homous! Low interest rates and QE are distorting and not correcting the economy. We will look back and wonder why these idiots thought pressing buttons at the Bank of E computer to create phoney money for use of the govt was a good idea. WE ARE MAKING IT WORSE. ONLY A REAL RECESSION WITH ALL THE DEAD WOOD COMING OUT WILL GET US GOING AGAIN. We are following the greek and Jap dip policy - endless sauce and little real meat.
  22. I am just setting up a website to cover all those virtually pointless compliance issues and the annual fee per lollipo person (not lady - that's soooo lolisexist) is just £45 and u can soon visit it www.iwannadoitwivalollipop.com . So just send that council to me and the cost will be..well, just £45 plus the £120pw wage.
  23. The news that a 1.1% ANNUAL rise is supposed to be a clear indicator of anything is ASTOUNDING. In fact the Land Registry September figure shows a -0.3% fall. The market is treading water in the South East, upheld by the London factor only. In the rest of the country there is a gentle decline. Even in Sussex where I am, the houses selling are those that present as clearly a lower price for their segment than the competition, or in a spot on difficult to find position. Turnover is low and many are just recyled as 'new' with a new agent. That said, the current policy of perpetual QE will continue to support prices whilst inflation erodes the true value. IT'S 1949 AGAIN (homes on avaergae 9x incomes - yes it was true then!)- with low rates likely to stay whatever govt is in for many years - therefore permanent distortion only allowing a very weak correction. The Euro economic collapse could still, at any time upset this apple cart. The fact that it is a very damaging policy and holding back future growth and competitiveness, does not bother the govt. They do not have the guts to stop it now...they missed the boat in 2010 when it would have been much easier to have followed a policy of gradual return to ordinary base rates of 4-5% for property loans at least.
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