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House Price Crash Forum


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About disciple

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  1. Hi Guys Just remeber when the crash comes, hold off for a couple of years, then start buying!!!!! Because a bull turns into a bear but the bear starts to turn into a bull! My strategy is to wait for the rental yeilds to hit 15-20% like they did in the mid 90s. Im sure kirsty will be there again saying dont buy property its bad news look how far its fallen dont do it! Only for it to go through the roof, cuse the pun.
  2. Hi I own Krugerrands. I own them for a number of reasons. * Paper investments in gold, such as gold shares, warrants and ETF are very dangerous in financial crises. * Gold accounts, again not good. * Cheapest way to own gold safely * I believe we have entered the worst financial crises in history Think about it for a moment, if the world banks are surpressing the gold price by lying about how much gold they have then you cant trust them to hold gold for you! Remember that ETF and gold shares are paper they are not the real thing, thats right guys you basically own an IOU from the very banks that, a lot of you say, are lying about how much gold they have! So when you cash it in I wonder if they will be worth anything? Gold Accounts same problem: Have you seen your Gold in those vaults? Have you seen the paper work, does the amount of gold balance with their clients amount, or is it less as some seem to believe? Also remeber if currency goes out the window because the FED printed more money than it should, then how will your redeem your gold? The point is if you believe that the majour banks have less gold than they actually have, then how can your paper, saying that you own x amount of gold of said bank, be redeemed? I believe this, thats why I own gold out right. However please remember what happened the last time gold went through the roof, it became political! So it might be wise to own gold in another country, never have your wealth in the same country when a financial crises hits. The good old government will try and take it from you LEGALLY! And when its gold whooooo. I also believe that we are facing the worst crises in modern history. If you ask a private investor who has been investing for 50+ years will tell you, the situation now has never been seen. This is unchartered waters. 'May you live in interesting times'.
  3. One of the things I find amazing with this economy is that the neither FTSE nor Dow jones has made any gains in the last five to six years. The Dow is just going sideways, whereas the FTSE is around 3300 level and struggling to get higher! From 2003 I have been told that the FTSE is recovering however the current rally seems to be spluttering and seems to have little juice left. It almost seems that the DJ & FTSE are on their last legs. Look at the economic data in the UK and things are very bad. I knew this in January this year, now it seem old Brown is comming to the same conclusions. However whats really interesting is that the interest rates are historically very low 4.5% inflation is running at 2.5% Yet the economy is slowing, consumer confidence is falling and house price inflation has dropped from 24% (peak) to 4% (current)! And the press says theres a recovery??? 24% to 4% thats a hell of a drop! I would think the downward trend is still more likely then a reversal! Whats more, think about it, interest rates are still historically lower, yet people and businesses are going bankrupt! Houses are being reprossed. This is amazing!!!! On historically low interest rates? The economy should be in over drive, but it isnt. Why? Well take away oil,and remember demand for oil is now shrinking it was $70 now I believe it around $58. This is where our inflation is comming from. So if oil price falls because of low demand, so will inflation. If that happens then interests rates will fall, I reckon middle of next year. The next thing that happens is that the central banks will then turn their attention back to DEFLATION. By that time I believe the damage will be done and central banks will be in chaos. As will property.
  4. Hi Im learning to spreadbet. Heres a thought, If the housing sector is slowing whats going to happen to their share price? Go up? Maybe its time to spreadbet these companies, Sell the lot of em. Just a thought mind. En-joy
  5. Hi I was just wondering, its amazing isnt it that we have low inflation. As a result historically low interest rates. This is not just Britain were talking about, but most of the world. Yet I keep reading in the newspapers, that everyone wants a cut in the interest rates! They are so low now why do we need to cut them again!? Could it be that Britians economy is slowing down so much that we are now heading for the unthinkable, deflation? And if so does that mean we are heading for a 1929 crash followed by a depression? What does this mean for houses? Well like most things in a deflation, they fall in price, not 20% but upto 90%. Its not just houses that will fall like a stone, but most asset classes. The only safe asset is cash, cash is king in a deflation event. The fed cuts its interest rates aggressively in 2001 because it was afraid that the US markets would go the same way as Japan, in other words deflation. Low interest rates means a slowing economy. Yet today, four years later the threat of deflation is still on the radar. Sweden has lowered its interest rates to 1.5%. I also hear Germany is also now fighting the enemy. Europeans seem to be going the same way with its interest rates set at 2%. Could it be our turn next? As far as I can make out one of the things that happens before deflation occurs is hugemongous debt and credit levels, and ladies and gentleman, if you look at the USA and Britain you find just that. In fact you see it everywhere. Now who knows maybe nothing is going to happen, but when people are asking for rate cuts when they are already low enough you have to ask the question, how low can they go? 0% just like Japan? En-joy
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