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assetpriceinflation

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Everything posted by assetpriceinflation

  1. From NETHOUSEPRICES Flat 1, Fleming House Ockbrook Drive, Mapperley, Nottingham, City Of Nottingham, NG3 6AS £133,695 Flat Leasehold New Build 21-Jan-2004 Now on Rightmove at £118,000 http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-161...=1&tr_t=buy
  2. Because the most important factor in all of this is inflation expectations. If everyone thinks there isn't going to be inflation then they don't try and get bigger pay rises / push through higher price rises. I think that this report gives the BoE the chance to hold for the rest of the year providing CPI doesn't trend upwards agin.
  3. Don't forget money is global, as much as central bankers create a role for themselves by manipulating interest rates they cannot tame the beast they have created. Look to Japan for seismic shifts - when they raise short term rates above 0.75 liquidity will rapidly unwind without corresponding increases in the US. Global rates are still around 4.6% which is still expansionary.
  4. Prices in Fleming House, City Heights Fleming House Flat 16 Ockbrook Drive £130,000 Flat Leasehold Not New Build 16-Jan-2006 Originally £137,995 Flat Leasehold New Build 28-Nov-2003 Now for sale at £125 000 http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-145...=1&tr_t=buy Fleming House Flat 8 Ockbrook Drive £128,995 Flat Leasehold New Build 28-Nov-2003 Now for sale at £125 000 http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-786...=1&tr_t=buy
  5. Hey, thats brilliant, I've been a member for a while NorthernMonkeyInc. I'll join your league.
  6. Will be asking for 11% (inflation), but also expecting a promotion - so will be asking for 20% or moving on within the year.
  7. "Failing that, we will have to transfer that debt to our children - because if mortgages remain unpaid children now legally inherit the debt." Is this correct ? What is the basis for this comment ?
  8. The lower the rate the weaker the dollar will become, the greater the chance of imported inflation (energy). The US needs >$2bn per day in capital inflows to pay the interest on what it owes. Rates are not going down there nor here. For all the talk of credit tightening money supply in UK is growing at circa 15% per year. We have slightly more room for manouvre but rates are going up. Let's not forget the long term AVERAGEin UK is 6% and US 5% !
  9. All the best to you guys - hope the meet goes well Ex-cambridgeite
  10. What do you base this figure on ? I don't have empirical evidence but I thought that the long run average of interest rates where 6% UK and 5% USA.
  11. So I guess that they are going to use data from repeat sales divided by number of days between sales then annualised. As we have seen massive HPI since their records began in 2000 their Index is going to be overly optimistic. As sales stagnate their index will similarly fail to reflect any subsequent fall in market value (asking prices). I currently remain sceptical.
  12. I have nothing respect for Stephen King - You have taken his comments out of context.
  13. To paraphrase Henry Kissinger " He who controls the food supply controls the population, he who controls the oil supply controls continents, but he who controls the money controls the whole world."
  14. Ben Bernanke - recent new head of the Federal Reserve - an academic whose studies of the Great Depression led him in 2001 to say that - The effects of the depression were worsened by the credit crunch of the central bank and that it wouldn't happen under his tenure as he would simply print money and drop it from Helicopters as a way of maintaining liquidity. Shame he never studied Weimar Germany or present day Zimbabwe where the citizens have all the money in the world yet can't afford anything.
  15. Agreed I notice the DOW surged to a new record yesterday - undoubtably bouyed by the knowledge that this is the top of the IR cycle -- Err , No But it is 6 weeks away from US Mid-Term Elections. I think a lot of people are going to get burned when the next US IR move is up. A bit like the last Bull turning Bear, the DOW at a record level, approaching October is worrisome enough for me. As regards Crash - that is a bit of a strange moniker anyway - the question we need to ask is where will HP's be 12/24/36 months from now ? Significantly lower ? - maybe. Significantly higher ? - no.
  16. In a nutshell they make it up see: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2006/0927.html
  17. Don't forget mine With the current UK real rate of interest at less than 2%, what level do you think is consistent with the so called neutral rate of interest? Fortunately these days interest rates are a matter for the Bank of England and not for me. ................. oh right , thanks Ed
  18. Wow ..did you write this ? Very eloquent , I agree entirely and to respond to some of your critics Absolutely... the purchasing power of the money that a debtor pays back is less than its purchasing power when borrowed. Clearly its best to never be in debt but if you have to and can fix rates to low IR levels and then let high inflation erode it then your pain is lessened. I'm not sure about the rate but this is definitely happening, the fact that it is not YET reflected in the gold price is because of intervention. Rest assured it will with surges towards $700/oz by xmas my personal
  19. On the contrary - In a depression Gold will go the same way as all other asset classes. Cash would be King hence the dilemma between HyperInflation / Depression. In one cash is worthless whereas in the other it is vital. Without wishing to go to extremes and exaggerate I do see Inflationary tendencies (in which value is stored in Gold) 2006-2009 giving rise to depression ( cash ) circa 2010. Still think the space odyssey post was the best though.........
  20. Its the same around the country. I've stopped in Canary Wharf and Bristol and always look for these new build apartments rather than hotels as they're cheap as chips.
  21. I've just left a houseshare in Cambridge - 4 bed 1050 pcm - but that is slightly below market rates. You will be able to get 3 beds for 1000pcm bt not necessarily in Grantchester and trumpington as these are prime locations. I've just done a search on rightmove and there is plenty available. If you got your heart set on the 1300pcm place then offer 1000pcm you've got nothing to lose. Personally I believe that the UK market is very ripe for negotiation though slightly less so in Cambridge.
  22. INFLATION = growth in money supply (14%) - growth in goods & services (2.5%) - growth in population (0.5%) = 11% Sounds about right to me
  23. Good Luck to you FP. I've left Cambridge now - relocated to Nottingham - so I never will get to meet you at pub meet.
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