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House Price Crash Forum


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About nickd

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    HPC Poster
  1. What you have to look for is people making big cuts in discretionary spending. People will stop going on holiday, stop eating out, go down to 1 car or no car, stop buying new clothes. There's some evidence of this happening but surely not enough for people to have "hit the wall". It looked like that was starting to happen more but then interest rates were cut. So you have to wait for it to happen again , properly, due to inflation re-introducing the pain that was removed by low interest rates. When we reach that point things will really get tough. But 1 year away? Not so sure. Hopefully (
  2. Much of Wollaton is grossly overpriced, and a bit insular too. Do you really need to border on Wollaton park? The cheaper parts of Wollaton still have under £200k for 3-bed detached. Beeston is overpriced due to student landlords and the hourly London trains but has a lot going for it. If you want to live somewhere you won't get your head kicked in and is close to countryside, also try these - Bramcote and the better parts of Stapleford (OK be selective where in Stapleford) - 3 bed detached £165-£210k if you shop around outskirts of W Bridgford towards Ruddington - (between S Notts colleg
  3. Nottingham city centre on a saturday night has had a rough edge for decades, certainly I've heard it was like this in the 60s. Don't most UK cities have similar problems? Nottingham has its issues but has a lot going for it too. Its a very vibrant place with good diversity of people, much fun stuff to do (whether you're into drinking, clubbing, sport, theatre amateur & pro, bands, music of any genre, you name it, more than other cities). Its easy to get around with a good network of cycle lanes, good frequent cheap buses, the tram now, line 2 of the tram about to be built. There's a great
  4. This assumes that the Tories feel confident in being able to engineer a quick turnaround, and have the ability to do such a demanding/delicate thing. Which I doubt. My guess is, whoever gets in in May, whether Labour, Tory or a hung parliament, carries on the current policy which is , look at the books, and conclude that stopping QE, borrowing etc and being austere would cause chaos and pretty much guarantee they don't get in next time. So whoever is in, shies away from making any real cuts. Until at some future time , when who knows, we perhaps reach breaking point with the amount of interes
  5. Now those are bold claims. I do not say they are false. Far from it. But bold. Accuracy is important. One big question, which determines the future for those HPCers needing a crash, is what % of current asking prices is inflated purely by liar loans, and will now be kicked away. Apparently half of mortgages in 2007 were self cert. This does seem extraordinary and could make Eric's claim of self-cert being the KEY, to not sound outlandish at all. Interestingly the press seems not to have info (or not reported) the % of liar loans for 2008, and 2009 so far. This news could be the biggest news
  6. The answer is "ad nauseum" because of lack of inflationary pressure, particularly in wages. There has been a crisis due to ridiculous borrowing and irresponsible speculation. Someone somewhere has got to pay for this. Instead of a recession affecting everyone, the powers-that-be have managed to engineer a response to the crisis that props up house prices and means those who didn't buy "at the right time" are those who get screwed. This feels like a recession only different. Many people, rather than being out of work as in a conventional recession, are this time round keeping their jobs but f
  7. How much hassle is it to go through the process of selling, then find somewhere to rent, deal with the landlord etc? Compare this to , how much hassle is it to simply cut your everyday living costs by , e.g, cooking cheap but tasty food by making more effort, learning recipes etc, walking/cycling instead of driving, going to the library instead of buying books, DVDs etc. Your house will probably fall in value excruciatingly slowly over the next few years. As, happily, will a house you might want to trade up to one day. So if you stay put and get on with your life, then in the long run you'll
  8. Not sure about the logic of this. Seems to me you can legally bribe an EA to favour you as a buyer, by using their mortgage broker. If you find a house you really like, and other people are after too, it rather makes sense to make the EA want to favour you over another buyer, by making it to their advantage to let you get the property. One shouldn't have to do this but its a pragmatic approach. Counter-arguments welcome.
  9. Why is this news? If the house you're trying to buy is worth having, it is likely, except in an extreme slump, that you'll have some competition from other people that like that house too. In which case it makes sense to use the estate agent's mortgage broker, to give them more incentive to favour you over other people.
  10. Here's a hard-core money-saving trick thats also kind to the environment. Get down to Oxfam and buy some Eco-Balls . These cost £35 but you get 1000 washes out of them. They do work well, and also, though they don't claim this on the box, it looks like colours don't run as much which means clothes last longer. Washing powder? What a rip-off.
  11. Hopefully for you, you don't get any unexpected charge when you reach the airport. I used to think Ryanair were quite good and flew a number times with them, for great value, but they have now made the fares so complex / opaque, that its hard to have any idea what is going on or what the final price will be. Also although every Ryanair flight I've been on was on time, you do hear horror stories that if it isn't, you can get badly stranded. Yeah travel insurance will cover the cost but it doesn't help you get home sooner. More of an issue is, it seems to me just a combination of new planes,
  12. Fair point, but don't forget its only a tiny minority who, on losing a job , have a forced sale next month. (I admit this will probably go up). People will cut back on a lot of things before they fail to pay a mortgage which they know will result in the roof over their head being threatened. Presumably you'd see big route cuts, losses even, by the likes of Ryanair & Easyjet before you see mass forced sales, as people will cut their holidays first. Maybe thats an indicator. I don't dispute that ultimately job losses may cause a surge in forced sales which could push house prices down de
  13. I agree the low rate is propping up the market. The fact that its 0.5% and there's been little sign of inflation taking off or currency collapse suggests it could stay low for ages, as long as other countries do the same. Meanwhile, rates on new mortgages are being put up by the banks. This makes it harder for new FTBs etc. That should put some downward pressure on the market but potential sellers don't need to sell if they're on trackers etc. The over-extended BTL landlord can carry on without a forced sale as long as interest rates for his/her specific mortgage are low. Seems to me the fut
  14. Why does it have to be bull vs bear? What about in-between? I was always a tentative, "believe it when I see it" bear. Now, I still believe in a house price correction but at an even slower pace than I first thought. UNLESS there is a sudden shock rise in interest rates, in which case all bets are off. But I can't see what will happen to cause interest rates to rise enough to accelerate the slow drift-down into a crash. At the moment it looks like yes house prices will correct (not "crash" because that implies a short sharp fall) but not in any timeframe thats exactly helpful to anyone on th
  15. Interest rates seem to me somewhat independent of who is in power. Seems to me of course interest rates (if you mean BOE rate) will stay down, because of lack of inflation. Energy prices have now come down from their highs. Food price inflation has largely been caused by the pound being low, which it isn't so much now, and supermarkets wiping out everyone else and getting local monopoly status. The main thing is complete lack of wage inflation - in fact probably wage deflation is to be expected
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