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Bear-ly believe it

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  1. Very high inflation to house prices, sure. And oil, thus petrol, but not generally surely? Our household expenditure, despite a growing family, hasn't changed exceptionally in the last few years. I remember one period when food rose sharply, a couple when energy prices surged, but countering that is that a lot of other stuff got cheaper or stayed the same or rose only a little. I do think the official figures understate inflation a bit but I don't think we have been through a period of generally high inflation, is that what you meant or were you referring to housing costs in particular?
  2. I know that this subject tends to polarise views on here so I might be overly optimistic in hoping to get some clear cut advice but I'm going to ask anyway. I have read a lot on here about the threat of inflation or even hyperinflation. I am a student of history so well know the classic account of Weimar Germany, and we have all seen those empty supermarket shelves in news reports from Zimbabwe in more recent times with the huge denomination notes chasing what little there is. The predictions of hyperinflation (as those of hyper deflation) have so far proved wrong with what little extra infla
  3. The boom, as such, is over. Prices are being held around a high plateau by artificial support measures to the property market specifically, the banking industry and the economy in general. When the crash comes, assuming it does, it will be massive by historical standards, making the early 90s look like a little foothill to a whacking great mountain! Buying now probably would make little financial sense but people buy for all sorts of reasons and finance is not always the uppermost concern. Thats something not everyone on here appreciates, labelling those that have real world pressures to cons
  4. It must have been a slow news day at the Observer. This mighty group currently boasts 80 members of their facebook campaign and their website has 1508 members. How many of them signed up after the article I don't know. Of course, they are right to be bothered by high house prices but given their size I'm surprised they managed to get to see Yvette Cooper. As an aside, ironically, she organised a rent strike once, when she was a student. It failed! The reason this won't work is there is no agreement amongst buyers about what is a fair price. Clearly many people can't afford to buy at presen
  5. Sorry, but this is not a strike if people are not buying because they can't get sufficient credit. If people are deliberately not buying when they could then it would be a strike but it is unrealistic to believe that this is happening on any significant scale. It is simply 'pent up demand' due to insufficient credit. When mortgage lending eased slightly last year prices rapidly stabilised and improved as houses started to sell again in even moderate numbers. People will easily understand the concept of a buyers strike and easily conclude that it is a myth as they do not see people around them
  6. I'm afraid this puzzles me. I could understand it if you titled this thread "Lets start a buyers strike", but not as it is. I agree that house sales are a lot lower than they were three years ago but I think that to attribute this to any kind of strike on the part of buyers is a mistake. I also don't think the wider public, as opposed to members on here, will believe it. As other posts have said, transaction levels have fallen simply because the availability of credit has been reduced. If the money was still available there would be plenty of lemmings queueing to throw themselves over the edg
  7. In my small corner of the East Midlands the stock of properties coming on to the market has increased since Christmas. Property Bee is also showing up quite a lot of reductions although very few of them are highly significant. I would say agents are pushing for reductions but buyers are digging their heels in and only reducing £5k-£10k for the most part, if at all. Selling hasn't completely dried up though so sentiment doesn't appear to have turned, but there are quite a few hard to shift properties out there and price is a big factor in most of them, I'm sure.
  8. If unemployment reaches 4.2 million then what is going to stop house prices falling more than 23%? Except inflation, of course. Is there are limitless supply of foreigners and uk based cash buyers itching to pile in to UK property to make up for the absence of a lot of potential buyers and repossessed owners who don't have jobs!
  9. Any fall of that magnitude won't happen in a vacuum. For a fall like that to take place either the demand for credit will have to go away or the supply of it will have to dry up. Both are currently possible. On the supply side the amount of money available to lend has already fallen significantly. It would be wrong to say that the money is being loaned any more sensibly than in the past though. 4x and 5x multiples are still available from 'reputable' lenders. People are still borrowing deposits, not saving them. Although the number of transactions has fallen, those that are going through are
  10. That is true, unless due to some new revision to the Q4 figures (ie the truth slips out) we find that we have never left recession in the first place. I really don't know how controlled the ONS are, bu tjudging from the spin that accompanied the last revision and various other data put out recently I would suggest that political operators are in position to keep everyone 'on message' at this sensitive, pre-election time.
  11. I just thought I would see how things were going on this at lunchtime. I'm gratified to see quite a few replies and interesting insight into what is going on. No, Whenever we have tried to get involved with local government in our area we have found there is always more than a whiff of corruption in the air! Whatever the case, the local councils certainly have their favoured suppliers and don't want to let competition in. I In this the road to ruin lies! There are quite a few of these outfits in this country. They price at marginal cost because they have to run their machines 24/7 to ma
  12. Only my third post, so please be gentle! There has been a lot of talk recently about the recovery accelerating. Only yesterday a couple of surveys were released that suggested output was improving (they were nearly lost in the news a,s understandably, the pound took centre stage but most of you will no doubt know about them), we have had the famous 'end of recession' and various commentators have said that they think the economy is strengthening. Back in the real world, well at least my little corner of it, things still look really quite hard. I was wondering if we could build a snapshot of
  13. Don't forget also the bidding up of asking prices by agents desperate to land what stock there is coming on to the market. In my area (Lincoln) prices are rising at present and are definitely back to peak madness levels for the most part in the area I watch. My sister works for an agent and she tells me that is definitely what is going on - the valuations are unrealistic (unless cash rich buyer with no brains turns up, which isn't unknown) given local earnings and the mortgage market, but are driven by agents fighting over what there is. Of course, the problem comes for the agent when they ha
  14. Lincoln update, for those interested but maybe not on the ground. My sister works for one of the agents in Lincoln and tells me that business is continuing, albeit at very reduced levels compared to most of the last decade. Most vendors are not realistic on price and all the talk of prices rising has made them less so but that is not the crucial element in the mad asking prices that I am seeing at present in the three large villages that I keep a close eye on. The crucial element, my sister tells me, is that due to the shortage of supply of houses (thanks to all the various schemes to protect
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