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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by pepactonius

  1. I wonder why the Fed doesn't just step in and offer to buy up all the bonds from cities and states as they get into trouble (or even before). This would allow these floundering governments (which can't print their own money) to issue all the bonds they want, without having to worry about their debt rating or having to find buyers for their bonds. They could appease the unions by spending as much as they want on salaries, pensions, benefits, etc. They could issue all the debt they want to cover these costs, with no adverse effects. These governments would just roll their debt over indefin
  2. I'd like to see low and stable prices (in $US) like this in the medium term and also in the longer term -- at least the next 2-3 decades while I'm still alive (and beyond, too). I wonder what the odds of returning to fiscal responsibility, financial stability, and real prosperity are in the US over this time period? I suppose things will be much better outside the US, where the governments seem to act much more responsibly.
  3. Maybe the reason is that the typical person in the US is a lot poorer than the typical person in the UK (or Italy, Japan, Australia, etc.): link The median net worth of an adult in the US is about $55,000, while the median wealth of an adult in the UK is at least twice that. (see paragraph just above the world map in the link.) It's a myth that the US is a "rich country".
  4. 10% over spot is a bit high for UK sovereigns. In the US, APMEX (for example) has them at about 7% over spot now, and I'd trust them more than someone on eBay. Sovs are usually one of the cheaper "junk gold" coins. The main problem with them is when you order random dates, about 10-20% of the coins are modern issues (post 1933). Unfortunatetly, right now US $20's (my favorites) are about 20% above spot.
  5. Kennedy Half dollars never really circulated widely, at least where I lived. Before 1964, you'd see half dollars (Franklin and Walking Liberty, and even an occasional worn out Barber half) every so often in change. But, once they released the Kennedy halves, you'd almost never see them in circulation (maybe once every 5-10 years). Kennedy halves were considered "special", and people pulled them out of circulation whenever they saw one -- maybe it was the 40% silver content.
  6. I think unpegging the dollar from gold was really a symptom of earlier problems that gradually became obvious in 1971. In 1964/1965. they stopped using silver in circulating coins, because inflation caused the price of silver to rise above (or too close to) the face value of the coins. Most of my silver stack came from this time, when I grabbed some silver coins as they were disappearing from circulation. As early as 1960, I recall reading in magazines like Newsweek (or Time) of troubling trends in the economy that were just starting to set in (like worsening balance of trade). The US was a
  7. Against what? -- food, oil, clothes, land, houses, or the Pound, Euro, Yen, Yuan, Franc, other Dollars, etc.
  8. I certainly hope you're right, although I'd be more interested in seeing this prediction extended to cover the next 20 years. As a natural-born pessimist, I'm more concerned with the possibility that the dollar will become almost worthless in the next couple of decades, as the US slowly spirals downward towards economic ruin. I have no idea whether or not this will happen, but it might.
  9. It depends on the state. In NY State, on the income tax form, there's a line for an uncollected sales tax "allowance". They assume you spend a certain percentage of your total income at out-of-state online stores, and collect the tax on that (unless you can somehow prove that you spent less). If this bill goes through, I wonder if they'll reduce this percentage?
  10. Isn't having 90% of assets in gold (or any one thing) pretty risky? I thought "real" gold bugs usually had something like 1/3 of assets in gold? Since I have no idea what's going to happen in the next decade or two, I like having as many different things as possible. With any luck, they won't all go to zero at the same time.
  11. When in doubt, diversify. Put some percentage in gold or silver, if you can find any for sale. Invest the rest in more conventional ways -- bonds, cash, shares, etc. BTW, here's my prediction: I have no idea what gold will be in 10 years, maybe somewhere between $100/oz and $1000000000000/oz.
  12. In the US, they can't let interest rates rise much above zero, regardless of how much dollar inflation there is. The Federal Debt is so high (and going much higher) that government simply can't afford to pay reasonable interest rates on it. Of course, most other countries are in much better shape, and maybe you could get higher interest rates there,
  13. 2) Is running trade deficits a good thing for the US -- it seems it would be better to run surpluses. 4) You always hear about how bad US education is, compared to the advanced countries. Demographics are far from "sound" (with all the baby boomers reaching retirement now), although perhaps not as bad as in certain other countries. 5) It's not clear that there is any meaningful recovery for most people in the US, and the outlook for most going forward seems bleak. Errol might be right about the US declining into 3rd world status -- we'll see. 6) I'd think that a revamped/rejuvenated uni
  14. Even though I'm officially a goldbug (based on my avatar pic), I certainly hope you're right. If gold reaches $5000/oz, this means the dollar is toast, probably along with the US itself. As a natural pessimist, I'm afraid that the dollar could well collapse at some time in the next 10-20 years. However, it's encouraging to read the knowledgeable posters on this thread explaining that things are different now, and no matter how out of control US government spending gets, it won't cause any inflationary problems or currency crises. Let's hope these posters are right, and the currency problem
  15. The biggest problem is to avoid temptation to engage in panic buying at the current price, in an attempt to bring gold back up to 10% of my total gross assets. If gold stays low, I'll try to resist temptation and slowly try to add more to approach 10% again -- if there's any physical available. Gold and silver are still pretty high, though, if you look at the big picture. The coin in my avatar pic was bought in the mid-1960s for about $50 to $60, back when gold was still $35/oz. Most of the silver I now have was pulled from circulation shortly after 1964/1965, at about $1.42/oz. For y
  16. My strategy for gold is to try to keep least 10% of total assets in physical gold coins (mostly pre-33), and then keep my fingers crossed that buying gold was a mistake. The best overall outcome is for gold to gradually decline vs the dollar and to languish at low prices for the next couple of decades (until I die). This means that the dollar and the US didn't collapse, which is fine by me. However, it does seem like the US is now a has-been country, and the era of US prosperity is ending. I thought we were done for in the 1970s, too, but that was apparently premature. Let's hope I'm wro
  17. Good buying opportunity -- I couldn't catch the bottom at $1491.10, but managed to send in an order to APMEX at $1502.20 If gold is significantly below $1500 a few days from now, I might order up some more. If silver gets down to the low 20's, I might be tempted to pick up some junk silver, if they're not sold out.
  18. Maybe their vaults are/were located in the Far Rockaways or Breezy Point?
  19. The problem is that states are in economic competition with each other. If some state has a massive tax increase compared to other states, many people and businesses that have to pay the taxes will just flee to those other states. There isn't all that much state loyalty in the U.S.
  20. Sounds like the real answer is for California to issue $167 to $335 billion in new bonds, and have the Fed buy them up with freshly-printed dollars. Aren't some Euro countries already getting bailed out now? Isn't Spain already bailing out some of its regions? How long until they start bailing out states in the US?
  21. In the US, the Silent Generation is the one just before the Baby Boomers, and after the WWII or Greatest Generation. They're probably the ones (and not the Boomers) who benefited most from the Peak Prosperity of the postwar era. Lots of Boomers will survive into the post prosperity era after 2020/2024, and die in poverty. (That probably includes me, since my normal lifespan should end in the mid to late 2020's)
  22. I wonder how they figure out that one is worth $55 (asking price) and the other is just $50?
  23. Software developer -- the jobs in our department are slowly being offshored to China. We even get to train our replacements, which is a multi-year process. I'll be retiring next year, even though the job transfer won't be complete for a few more years.
  24. Don't worry about the "fiscal cliff". Before it happens, Congress will come to a compromise where both the Democrats and Republicans get what they want: - ( R ) Extend current tax cuts for the rich - (D) Enact new tax cuts for everyone else -- for example, reduce Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes, etc. - ( R ) Increase defense spending - (D) Bail out state and local governments, federal subsidies for public service union pensions and health care plans, buy up state-issued bonds, so states can spend as much as they want without going bankrupt - (D) Add new stimulus handouts to
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