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House Price Crash Forum


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About bunniewunnie

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  1. Just to say, CEBR forecasts make Michael Fish look like a genius In 2007... A leading think tank says Britain's housing boom will continue in 2007, with average prices rising by more than £1,000 a month. The latest forecast from the Centre for Economics and Business Research says: 'Despite recent rate rises, house prices will continue to grow in 2007 and 2008, with annual house price inflation this year expected to hit 7.6 per cent.' But the CEBR is forecasting slower growth in 2008 and 2009, when house prices will probably increase by just 1.5 per cent and 3.9 per cent respectively. However, it does not share some experts' fears that the market could be in for a correction of between 15 and 20 per cent Jaspreet Sehmi, an economist at CEBR, says: 'Rate rises will have no immediate impact on prices as other factors, such as the continued strength of the financial services sector, remain more important.' John Ward, one of the report's authors, added: 'The underlying fundamentals of the housing market continue to support prices. Even though interest rate rises may act as a dampener on the market, people are spending considerably less of their incomes on mortgages than in the early 1990s. Furthermore, in many parts of the country, shortages remain acute.' Although the CEBR is forecasting a weaker housing market in 2008/9, it believes inflation will accelerate again by the end of the decade, with an annual average price rise of 7.1 per cent in 2010. If that is correct, the average price of a home in Britain will go up from £187,000 today to £225,000 in 2010. But the CEBR said the market was likely see a slowdown towards the end of the year, due to the impact of three rate rises. Then in 2008, they switched around, but still got it wrong!! House prices will continue to fall for another 12 months and will not bounce back to last year's levels until at least 2013, a leading economics group said today.
  2. Just to remind folks what they said in 2006! Following last week's big property market story where a leading economist predicted sharp falls in house prices within the next two years, another economist is arguing a house price crash is "very unlikely". The Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) has come up with five reasons why there will not be house price crash, in contrast to Morgan Stanley economist David Miles' predictions of significant falls in house prices (full story). Jonathan Said, senior economist at Cebr, argues there will not be a crash because demand far exceeds supply in the UK housing market. "The United Kingdom does not have a large enough stock of houses," explained Mr Said. "Government planning restrictions and schemes such as key worker housing prevent the construction sector from fully responding to the house market's price signal." Mr Said's second reason why house prices will not crash is the population growth of the UK. "Population growth - boosted because more of the world's people want to live in the United Kingdom - and an ever smaller household size means that there are more people who need to live in houses than ever before and, also, that more houses are needed per person," argued Mr Said. The affordability of mortgages compared to their early 90s' high was Mr Said's third reason for house prices remaining firm. "When thinking about buying a house, potential house buyers do not compare their income to the price of a house. Rather, they compare their income to their annual mortgage payments. With interest rates at or below five per cent in recent years, mortgages remain affordable when compared with the early 1990s," Mr Said explained. London's ongoing status as a financial centre and a lack of transport infrastructure keeping buyers focused on location were Mr Said's last two reasons for house prices staying as they are. Mr Said concluded: "As long as supply continues to fail to react to the burgeoning demand or housing, it is very unlikely that house prices will crash. "In our latest house price forecast, we see inflation slow from an average 8.2 per cent this year to 4.6 per cent next year and 1.3 per cent in 2008, before picking up again. "Higher interest rates, tight household bills and the world economic slowdown will cut back house price inflation, making talk of a possible crash more of a pub topic. "But as long as the fundamentals remain unchanged, a housing bust is very much off the cards."
  3. How about sticking it into a pension and seeing and immediate 25-40% gain thanks to HMRC!
  4. Only 17,000 votes lost? Sounds like CGT hikes are guaranteed. Anyway, I hate tax as much as they do but if I pay 40% on my hard earned income why not the same on investment income? Seems only fair!
  5. Don't agree. The poor are looked after by social housing. Those on 'low income' could afford to buy a modest home if prices lower. One of the reasons they were pushed up was surely the BTL 'investors'. Don't know any who see themselves as hosuing providers to the poor!
  6. Can you explain why house price falls would be disastrous for the wider economy? I think the opposite. What matters to the wider economy is turnover, not house price values - that's my point of view.
  7. Yes, not a great advert for investment advice is he?!
  8. Hasn't it started already - 20% falls, more in some places... I know prices recovered a little last year but wasn't that due to the 'quantative easing' crap plus trashed currency that buoyed prices up?
  9. That's one hell of a story! To answer your question my understanding is the answer is no they don't but when you want to buy and negotiate on price surely it all helps to be able to demostrate that you are a serious buyer and everything's in order. A mate of mine who works part time at an EA says that some people go as far as pulling together a file of info for th vendor showing deposit evidence, mortgage approval, rental agreement (FTB) etc and it really helps them accept a low offer!
  10. Your re are assuming that the Government can steer the economy whichever way it wants. I don't think so. They've managed to keep the bubble inflated short term but it simply isn't sustainable as far as I can see. Can anybody explain how it is? If they don't get a grip of debt inflation will get out of control as sterling weakens further and the bottom falls out of the bond market, thus forcing up the cost of borrowing. This will wipe out house prices. Or something like that!
  11. Ah, I think you're confusing asking prices with selling prices! Also don't forget LR figures do not include repossessions or auction properties - they think it 'distorts' the picture!
  12. 'Don't miss life. It will pass you by'. This is something I don't get - the idea that if you do not 'own' a house you are somehow missing out. I have so many friends who are desperate to own their own house and seem to think that until they do they are out in the cold. Luckily I have many more who just don't care about that, who are having fun and really doing something with their life. One of my friends is spending two years living with orang utans, helping some programme to keep them from extinction (not for me I must admit) but really doing something she enjoys. Another mate is going round every F1 race this season. Another is working in South America. As for me, I am building up my business. I want to buy a house but prices are just silly. If I never buy I don't care, I'd rather rent than have the weight of a mortgage round my neck. I am renting for about half of what it would cost to buy the same place, assuming a 3% mortgage. Just imagine what will happen when interest rates are forced up! Oh, they will be - trust me on that one. So of course don't miss life... but do'nt see buying a house as any kind of life. Life is what you make it!
  13. How can HPI keep going? Prices fell 20% then made a 9% recovery (on the 80%)... hardly surprising. To think that it is all over seems to be wishful thinking - I just can't see anything other than further falls. I see lots of price drops of Rightmove... even in an apparently recovered market.
  14. I've only just joined this site and it is really funny to read your post cos from my point of view the market is dead. Of course this is only a temporary situation and interest rates will be forced up, either by inflation or by a crash in sterling. That is when the market will fall apart. I know so many people who are just keeping their head above water, Prices will need to fall by 40% for the market to get moving again - ask the majority of first time buyers, who need to be in to hold the market up! The average house needs to cost around £100k before the market will stop falling but it will happen slowly, with ups and downs along the way. At the end of the day people will do what they want to do - until forced to do something they don't!!
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