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House Price Crash Forum


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About Toddo

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    HPC Newbie

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    Star trek online, Gym, IC circuit design,
    working long hours
  1. Well, here we are fellow Swindon peeps. 2013! Happy new Year, Are we where we thought we would be regarding house prices? My personal situation has improved abit. so i am hoping 2013 is a good time to buy.
  2. Wow, Thanks for this, its very interesting and just the kind of information i feed off.
  3. wtf is that ment to be a post about? have you been drinking? that link is garbage, not to mention unsafe posting exe's even if it was valid
  4. @TGP It seems like you have got your head screwed on, Would you say that the mortgage you could afford now would charger a monthly interest amount that is equal or lower than your rent? thats always been a good indicator for me when its cheaper to buy than to rent, assuming all else is static
  5. Friend lives there, seems very quiet. Miltitary town mostly. dont know what the towns like. Not much help am i?
  6. I guess my signature says it all. interesting enough, i just checked house prices around where i live, I can only just get a mortgage that will charge me interest only just below current Rent.... This was always my benchmark to deciding when to buy. please note I've make that statement in the past tense now. lol
  7. Back to something i was saying earlier about when the crash will come. There will be a gilt strike and a sovern debt crises that will bring about this crash.. But as we all have seen throughout 2009, and why things look rosy now. The Rules of the game will be changed just when we thought everything was going so well... The new buzz words we MUST all get familar with is "Debt for Equlity exchange". D4E. When this baby is announced by the governments we will see hyperdevaluation of shares, pensions and anyone with savings over £50k ..
  8. I’ve been looking into the other 'factors' that have brought about this recovery. I found a link on the HPC Blog to the market oracle. which said: Market Oracle Here And the Devil in the details Here Just as i suspected, the banks no longer need to realise the losses on their books. Not sure of the consequences of this.
  9. You are SOOO right!!! This is the key point isnt it, Buyers are sooo horribly over-leveraged against their debt that when the government are forced to raise interest rates it will be a blood bath for the housing market... No really. i cannot see how else it can end.... Ok so maybe im being abit over the top. teeeheee
  10. Sorry to pipe my own posts but I have a few ideas why... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=135717&view=findpost&p=2365964 What other macro economical reasons can we think of? 1) False realisation that house prices = wealth. 2) Home owners are not forced to sell. 3) This recession was not derived from consumers, cost of living, or spending power.. But from the top down, from banks to businesses directly. feel free to add to the list
  11. Oh Well, I i think that 2010 Q2-Q3 Will be the time of the Sterling crisis... and the government will be stairing into an abyss of debt.
  12. Hello, I have some interesting points to add to your observations. And will unravel the arguments of the most seasoned weekend economist like myself. One of the most striking comparisons is that of the UK and Japanese Housing markets. One of the few comments why UK house prices will increase is due to a lack of supply, and continued high demand. But these people are forgetting that Japan has been involved in a 0% interest policy, has a population density greater than the UK with 337.4/km2 compared with the UK with 246/km2 but their house prices have been in negative territory for over 15 years... But only in single figures. But in the short term we can argue that house prices will be sustained at least due to many social-economical reasons which are vague to isolate. For example, the biggest we can refer to is the difference between the UK house market and the crashes seen in Spain and the US. If someone in the UK is in negative equity then the debt is still owed to the mortgage lender (unless you go bankrupt). However in the US, if you return the keys to the mortgage lender you can walk away debt free. This creates a case in the UK where banks are not financially motivated to price in the losses of their mortgage assets and risk 'upsetting the apple cart', especially if they can declare the 2007 assess prices on their balance sheets.... another false indication of profitability. UK banks will do all they can to avoid force repositions of the 90's. But in other countries the sooner Banks repossess they can avoid further losses. Also there is currently no incentive for UK Banks to act now if interest rates are so low.... I wont bore you with an essay of social-economical indicators But suffice to say that people will suffer severe interest rate shock when interest rates do rise, because the modern generation have never experienced interest rates of +8%. If interest rates are low, then I can borrow increasingly greater amounts with little impact on cost (currently an extra £60 a month to borrow another 10k, easy money!), until rates do rise. BUT the government know this and to the very end, will keep rates low. Until they are forced to increase interest rates due to outside factors such as rampant inflation, asset bubbles brought about from low interest rates, and a foreign capital investment strike, resulting in a sterling crises. So without the argument for high demand as a factor and the 'kicking the can down the road' policy of the government what else gives you, your Bullish sentiment?
  13. So, lets summarise... EA's are the Devils children?
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