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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by undersupply

  1. The poll answer of choice is a forgone conclusion in my opinion, because it has given knowns as "Rummy" would say. Which are houseprices wont fall [ excluding inflation] with a 20K bonus at the end of it. Come on not many would take the renting option all things considered.

    By the same token you could ask if the market was going to correct in the follwing 12 months at a rate of 20% would you still be prepared to buy now. Again the 20% correction is not up for dispute, it's a given.

    Edit: of course many FTB'ers can not afford to buy Full Stop. Also if getting on "The Ladder" means bringing kids up in Chavs Ville would it be worth it?

    However 1% HPI per year is not a lot.

    Renting is still cheaper than buying. Some of your 20k will be used up this way.

    I was wondering at what point people thought buying a house was a good idea, compared to saving or investing the difference between rent and mortgage repayments.

    So I dont agree that the result was a foregone conclusion and am surprised by the voting so far.

    If you were to put your deposit of 20k into shares you would need to see growth of 100% over 10 years and then would be CGtaxed on the 20k you made, maybe that is what people are thinking.

    Weve had all the "how much do you think prices will drop" polls before, I was wondering what people thought about stagflation.

  2. Bought my house in December 2005, quite happy for 0% HPI to be honest. Bought it as a home, not an investment.

    Interesting, and there are many like you, which makes a crash far less likely.

    1% HPI per year is less than wage inflation, which means your house would become more affordable while still netting you 20k.

    Gearing eh?

    When will we get stock market "mortgages"?

  3. You guys n gals should take a few days away from this thread then spend 5 minutes reading it from the start. :rolleyes:

    I thought they were just from mumsnet hence the join dates, if memory serves me rightly someone posted something that was posted on mumsnet, that poster came here and got the hpc greeting ( :lol: ) so a couple more posters from mumsnet came as backup. :)

    I could be wrong


    I am positve they are not the same person. :D

    Et tu, Brute? :huh:

  4. http://www.mortgageadvisormag.co.uk/YeR8bPA.html

    Nationwide increases affordability calculation


    Nationwide Building Society has changed how it calculates the amount it lends to borrowers, enabling home buyers to afford more expensive property.
    The new affordability calculation, which was created in direct response to feedback from the lender’s intermediaries, takes a range of new factors into account when assessing the amount it will advance to borrowers, such as the customer’s monthly commitments. It also conducts a stress test that uses a higher interest rate to ensure customers can afford the monthly mortgage payments in the event of an interest rate increase.
    Using the updated calculator, a sole applicant earning £30,000 a year with £100 outgoings per month,
    could now borrow £122,400 – compared to £99,400 under the previous affordability model.

    What's the problem Nationwide? Can't find any borrowers to qualify for the overpriced houses? Gotta keep that 'ol momentum of borrowing rolling--no matter what eh?

    Just what we need, some lax lending for the last fools :P

  5. Wow, that is scary stuff. :o

    Question for those who are currently in Dublin: what do you perceive sentiment to be like at the moment?

    Not there atm, but over and back quite a lot.

    Sentiment is very bullish and will be for another 2-3 quarter point rises, I think.

    People ignore any negative sentiment, theyve beenhearingthisforyears.......

  6. To be fair, it was a freehold house in a great location with stunning garden. So, I would say that in general, leasehold properties will be in an over supply situation, but there's not too many freeholds on the Island at the mo. Hence why the demand was high. Ah, if only I had brought more freehold prop's in the mid 90's. . . . . :rolleyes:

    Any chance of a rightmove link or postcode and number?

    Cheers :D

  7. €200 a month extra? - that's on a national typical mortgage of €300,000. Many in Dublin have borrowed a shed load more than that.

    ....but the penny is finally dropping here now.


    Home loan hikes to cost €200 a month

    Interest rates to rise faster than expected, experts say

    Brendan Keenan

    Group Business Editor

    INTEREST rates and mortgage costs are set to rise faster, economists say, with a total increase of more than 1pc likely by the end of the year.

    The next interest rate hike could come in May, after surprise new figures yesterday showed business conditions in Europe at their best level for years, while debt continues to mount.

    If the upsurge continues, the European Central Bank could hike the cost of money by three-quarters of a percent between now and Christmas, analysts say.

    That would bring the ECB rate to 3.25pc - compared with 2pc at the beginning of December.

    And that would push mortgage rates to above 4pc, adding around €200 to the monthly cost of a typical €300,000 mortgage.

    Such a rise seems likely to cool the pace of house price inflation, which experts had said could reach 12pc this year.

    The ECB is worried that booming house prices and borrowing has spread from countries like Ireland and Spain to other euro zone economies.

    Figures from the ECB yesterday showed total euro area borrowing in February was 10pc higher than the same month last year.

    Mortgage lending was up 12pc.

    ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the housing market needs close watching.

    "Euro area residential property prices are now in their sixth year of strong dynamism and at the same time growth in mortgage loans has increased substantially," he said.

    "The hawks on the ECB governing council will be very concerned at the persistent strength of borrowing, while even the less hawkish will feel a little uncomfortable that rates are so low," said Austin Hughes, economist at IIB Bank.

    The credit figures came on top of an unexpected surge in business confidence in Germany, Europe's biggest economy.

    The most important business survey rose to a 15-year high in March, with firms reporting that current conditions had improved as well as their expectations for coming months.

    "An ingrained pessimism has contributed to Germany's under-performance in the past decade," Mr Hughes said.

    "So a turnaround in confidence may imply a stronger trend in investment by firms and spending by households."

    Stronger economic growth would allow the ECB raise rates to a level which could reduce borrowing to more sustainable levels.

    "It is now more likely that the next rise will come in May rather than June. They could then rise again in August, with a possible third increase by the end of the year," he said.

    John Beggs, chief economist at AIB Global Treasury, has felt for some weeks that a May increase was on the cards.

    "If they move in May, then they probably would be looking to two more hikes this year.

    "But for that to actually happen, the economic data will have to confirm the upswing.

    "There are a couple of things which could make the ECB pause, such as another rise in oil prices, or a fall in the dollar."

    The outlook is for interest rates to continue rising, as the world economy moves away from the last few years of cheap credit.

    The US Federal Reserve last night raised rates in a 15th consecutive hike, bringing them to 4.75pc, with no indication that they have yet reached their peak.

  8. I get:

    Sorry, but we did not find any matches to display. Try again and broaden your search criteria. If you were searching for new posts since your last visit, it's possible that there are none to show.

    Gotta put in search by member and then the name eg lookingafterthekids

    and then the phrase "freind"

    and then sort by post not thread.

    So you have to search 9 times to complete this task, 3 names, 3 phrases

    RichM, you must be one of the lazy rich :rolleyes:

    dogbox does this more than anyone actually.

    so.... your point is that bulls can't spell?


    No there only is one bull :o

  9. lookingafterthekids Feb 9 2006, 11:59 PM Post #12

    HPC Poster

    Group: New Members

    Posts: 169

    Joined: 22-December 05

    Member No.: 3,742

    I've bought and sold at a lovely profit within the last 8 months and didn't experience any of the above only pure joy when going to the bank?

    Care to give us the postcode and house number then so we can revel in your cleverness?

  10. Quote megaflop - 'I live with my parents in one of the most affluent areas of south Manchester, which boasts the largest - and arguably some of the most desireable - detached property Manchester has to offer.

    For about a year now, my friend's neighbour has had his £675K detached on the market. Two signs. No sign of moving though. Recently my neighbours have joined them, similar price bracket, been on (seriously) about 6 months, just sprouted a second agent's sign last weekend. Two more neighbours have similar properties on the market covertly - Rightmove only - but no signs. Unsurprising really, since it's a cul-de-sac, and too many signs would look bad. Driving around I noticed another such house had sprouted two signs.

    It sounds as though you live near me and the market appears to be picking up to me - we've had plenty of interest and offers recently and there are a lot of sold boards appearing - it's definitely been slow the last 18 months but my EA friends says March has been the busiest month in 2 years wrt sales agreed.

    Sorry, made a complete hash of quoting there - too much wine!

    Oops, am not an EA myself in case that's not clear, if you even care, which you probably don't...

    Agree 100% with all that 'casual observer' says (in this thread that is)

    Off to bed before my hole digging gets out of hand


    I thought you said you sold it, on the bricks and mortar thread :blink:

    Prestwich Park Road South, eh dropping 25k KKKKrashhhhh

    QUOTE(Glitterygook2 @ Mar 27 2006, 04:56 PM)

    No replies to that I see!

    Good for you B&M - we've 'sold' too and since first buyer tried playing silly games and lost it, a second purchaser is now proceeding at a higher price!

    I'm no expert but things certainly seem to be picking up locally - lots of sold boards up and according to EA friend March has been mad busy wrt agreeing sales.

  11. No replies to that I see!

    Good for you B&M - we've 'sold' too and since first buyer tried playing silly games and lost it, a second purchaser is now proceeding at a higher price!

    I'm no expert but things certainly seem to be picking up locally - lots of sold boards up and according to EA friend March has been mad busy wrt agreeing sales.

    Is this the property in Manchester, what did it sell for, you must have lowered the price after a year on the market?

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