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undersupply

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Posts posted by undersupply

  1. It seems I have to tell you this every month and you either cannot or will not understand. These are simple averages.

    I understand this very well. I also understand that until AVERAGE HPI falls to zero, it will not go negative.

    Sentiment among property buyers will not be turned until AVERAGE HPI runs out of steam.

    There can be no crash until sentiment changes.

  2. One fifth of the north east expecting to go bankrupt... nothing to do with over inflated house prices :lol:

    Apparently not.

    While this sounds alarming, it may actually be down to northeasterners having more free income not accounted for by a mortgage: homeowners in the north east have an average mortgage of £49,704
  3. http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...articlekey=3868

    Yorkshire and the North East

    The North East and in particular the Newcastle city centre market has been largely unaffected by the oversupply experienced by some other northern cities. Buyers can be found for most Quayside apartments and whilst prices have not risen, there has been no significant deterioration with rental yields holding up well. There is evidence of clear oversupply in Gosforth with a corresponding mark down in value. Buy-to-let markets in Middlesborough and Sunderland have yet to mature and have as yet seen little owner-occupier demand. The rental market too, has yet to be tested though local demographics suggest it will prove satisfactory.

  4. If we are talking facts then why bring up the falacy of there being too many people - the North East population has only recently stabalised after decades of decline - there are a few more households but nothing of the order that would cause the kind of HPI we've seen especially given that we've been building houses in that time.

    You dont like to gloat? What about 'is it time for the bears to hibernate' and '20th dearest town or city in the country'. My inital posts were a bit cross in repsponse to your gloating...and like I say, you just don't get it.

    http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/NorthQ42006NT.doc

    Newcastle Upon Tyne 10% HPI

    Average salary in North £26,236, presumably higher in the main regional city.

    20th dearest town or city is not gloating, it should be the 6th dearest town/ city if population has anything to do with house prices.

    I'm sorry the hibernation comment made you upset.

    Can you provide evidence that Newcastle is losing population rather than, as I believe, gaining it?

  5. It was down 2% last month matey...that righmove for you

    We'll see...we'll see

    and by the way, there aint no undersupply of places to live

    2.7% down last month, I did quote the YOY figure.

    There is a huge undersupply of properties that people want to buy, therefore you have too much borrowed money(lax lending) from too many people(migration) chasing too few desirable houses(undersupply).This leads to price rises.Undesirable accomodation doesn't sell & is left to the rentiers.

    Also you talk about rampant asset inflation in one post & champion the 3% rise as below the RPI in the previous post.This means houses are becoming more affordable & a crash is less likely & there is no rampant asset inflation.

    I want to stay out of the gloating about good or bad news, and stick to the facts.

  6. Oh, well your 2007 prediction was almost right for 2006 according to the home.co.uk report :P

    http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/H...ex_JAN07.pdf

    I know you will be a busy bull putting in calls to the various EAs quite soon so I have included a quick quote for you:

    So, according to the home.co.uk, asking prices for residental property in the North fell by 2.5% across 2006 on average :o

    Capital gains...? Capital losses more like! :D

    DCLG showing 6.4% yoy growth for North EAST

    http://www.communities.gov.uk/pub/554/HPIN...6_id1505554.pdf

  7. Or maybe they've learned something during that time — that houseprices in the UK only ever go in one direction.

    Not strictly true, although house prices historically rise at 8% per year on average over time, we have seen greater rises than that in recent years in the north east and especially newcastle upon tyne.

    Prices can stagnate until wages catch up, or prices can fall if there is a sudden increase in interest rates.

    Two schools of thought.

    1. Newcastle has stagnated for 2 years & is now going to pick up after catching a cold from London.

    2. The interest rate rises which are the medicine for London will be the poison for Newcastle and force the BTLs to the exit and prevent the FTBs from buying.

    I see the middle ground: stagnation for this year 2007 that is 2-3% rise in house prices.

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