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undersupply

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  1. Kirsty Allsopp said: "It has never been tougher for young people to buy their first home. Stepping on to the property ladder is everyone's dream - but increasingly it remains a dream, as the reality becomes more and more expensive. The Conservative Party is making the right moves to make things easier for young people trying to get a start in life. After years of talking about things which seem irrelevant to young people, they are beginning to focus on what matters. And they are listening to people who understand the needs of first time buyers. It's a breath of fresh air after years of a government which seems to talk about the heartache and difficulties of buying your first home, but doesn't seem to act to address the problem - and sometimes just makes matters worse."

    Krusty loves us, she wants to help us :lol::D:P:( :angry:

  2. Thought some of you might find this of interest!

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4739154.stm

    "I lived with my parents until I was 29," says Laura. Most of my friends stayed with their parents until they were married. "It is expensive to rent property particularly in the cities and most young people can't afford it. If you can't afford to live, you are not even thinking about children."

    Echoes the views of many posters on this board....

    Good to see the irish are shagging as well as buying property......

  3. anyone think it was a torch job. Guess the building is no longer listed. Easy to build some rabbit hutches now.

    http://icnewcastle.icnetwork.co.uk/evening...-name_page.html

    In April 2004 Adamson Development applied to turn the seven-storey building into 134 luxury flats worth £30m.

    Buyers snapped up 121 flats at a value of £23m.

    Planning problems with parking facilities had delayed the development.

  4. 3.5 x income doesn't say what they can afford, saying I'd borrow £150,000 means there

    must be a few on here almost ready or about to jump in?

    Incomes change. so do interest rates. but debt is real.

    If you rent for the next 40 years you will probably spend far more than £150,000 on accomodation because

    You need somewhere to live,

    As incomes rise, so does rent inflation.

    You won't own your property in retirement, and will still have to pay rent.

    This is why banks lend on houses, but I cant get £150k off them to play roulette or the stock exchange

    Mortgage debt is not that bad per se because it is secured on a normally appreciating asset.

    Buying an overpriced asset however is bad, I think we will both agree :D

  5. Also from the Sindo

    How many economists can fit on one TV?

    EVERYONE is desperate for their 15 minutes of fame and we're resorting to extreme measures to achieve it.

    One lot is learning how to dance a jig on telly while every Z-list celeb is queueing up to be grievously insulted by two puppets on the Podge and Rodge Show. But forget about Celebrity Jigs 'n' Reels and trips to Ballydung, the only way to achieve celeb status in our wealth-obsessed society is to become an economist.

    Economists get more airtime than even Michael McDowell gets when he forgets to take his blood pressure tablets. We just can't get enough of these bespectacled number crunchers talking about sustained growth statistics.

    Economania has reached such feverish levels that last week two economic reports were rushed out on the same day by rival firms, Friends First and NCB stockbrokers. As a result, there were so many economists packed into the RTE newsroom that it resembled the floor of Wall Street during heavy trading.

    We're even developing different types of economists to cope with consumer demand. For lovers of the unstructured look, there's the beardy bloke with glasses type epitomised by Dermot O'Brien of NCB, while on the other hand, there's the clean-cut, earnest ones like George Lee for the mammies.

    Friends First clean-cut economist Jim Power's report said we're too obsessed with housing but the economy is still growing rapidly, while NCB's rugged Dermot O'Brien forecast that our population will grow by 30 per cent to over 5.3 million citizens by the year 2020.

    Forget about the economy, it's the profile of the economists that's experiencing the most growth. Don't be surprised if economic forecasts replace the weather forecast after the news soon.

    Will Hanafin

  6. From the Sunday Independent:

    Experts rubbish boom forecast

    JANE SUITER

    SOME of the country's leading economists have described as "simply ludicrous" predictions that Ireland's economic miracle can continue with no fear of even a slight downturn.

    NCB Stockbrokers declared that one in five Irish will be an immigrant in 2020, house prices will keep accelerating and the number of cars on our roads will have doubled, while the economy will grow by 5 per cent every year.

    But Jim Power, chief economist at Friends First, says the report is so totally off the mark that it is simply impossible. "This makes me question my understanding of economics. If it is correct I would have to get out of the business."

    What worries Power and others are the assumptions in the report, particularly that a very high level of immigration is unquestionably good. According to Power, if the population does grow to over five million in the next 15 years it will not mean more wealth per head, but a smaller slice of the cake for everyone.

    "We simply cannot sustain growth without a significant multinational manufacturing sector. The quality of many of our new jobs have been downgraded and attract lower wages than in the past, leading to lower productivity.

    "We are also way over-dependent on housing which means the level of debt is growing so much so that even middle-income earners are reportedly having to cut back on food and heating to keep within their means.

    "Our infrastructure is creaking with four million people and would probably simply grind to halt with five million people trying to drive three million cars around the roads."

    Some argue that the Government needs to try and consolidate the growth we have, take back all property incentives and ensure an even path for growth.

    The risk is that chasing after the type of growth NCB is predicting would risk totally overheating the economy and increase the likelihood of a crash.

    The NCB economists say house prices will continue growing at up to 8 per cent a year every year for the next 15.

    So far this year the average price of a house has jumped by €6,000, while the annual rate of increase to the end of February was 11.1 per cent, well above what the Central Bank and many others believe is sustainable.

    Power also argues that the Government needs to be turning its attention to consolidation. "The Government is mis-allocating our resources. They should be going to ensure top class public services and physical and IT infrastructure, but instead are subsidising builders and developers.

    "If you believed that the Government is capable of delivering a first world health and education system as well as world-class physical and IT infrastructure there might be some hope that the economy would break all the rules."

  7. LOL

    or the news report today about irelands biggest aviation disaster.

    A 2 seater light aircraft crashed into a dublin cemetry this afternoon.

    Irish search and rescue teams have so far recovered over 240 bodies and will be digging throughout the night as they expect the death toll to rise further.

    Paddy Irishman, Paddy Englishman and Paddy Jamacian are all in the maternity hospital when the matron comes out and says "Im terribly sorry theres a mix up and we want you to identify your new babies".

    Paddy Irishman is first in and points immediately to the dark skinned child. The embarrased gynaecologist, mutters"Ahem ,I hope you dont mind me saying this but, we didn't really expect that one to be yours"

    Dont care says Paddy,one of dem two over dere is english.

  8. Heres another

    http://www.lisney.com/subnav.aspx?tabid=1&...roperty&ID=3065

    I wonder what a semi WITH a garage goes for?

    This went for well over the guide price:

    Modest city semi makes €3.7m in new auction fever

    House makes 'astronomical' price as property market powers on

    Allison

    Bray

    THEY are the sort of ordinary, suburban, semi-detached homes you would find in any town across the country - but yesterday, two of them sold for close to €4m a piece.

    A day of mega-sales in the Dublin auction rooms served once again to illustrate how the property market continues to power ahead.

    Several other semi-detached four and five-bedroom homes in desireable areas of the capital also fetched well in excess of €1m each.

    The highest price was achieved in an auction lasting less than five minutes when a four-bedroom 1950s house at 13 Ailesbury Drive in Donnybrook went under the hammer for €3.7m.

    The successful middle-aged bidder, who arrived early and positioned himself at the front row in the auction room, quietly outbid his main rival, an unassuming 30-something man who bowed out when the bid hit €3.7m.

    Both bidders declined to comment on why they were willing to pay so much for a property that would not look out of place in any average suburban estate.

    Aside from having a small attached greenhouse and a 10ft x 10ft study with picture window overlooking a mature 90ft rear garden, there is nothing out of the ordinary about the 2,000 sq ft house, though the new owner will have celebrity chef Patrick Guilbaud as a neighbour.

    Before the sale, auctioneers had given the property an Advised Minimum Value (AMV) of €2.5m, illustrating once again that buyers should be wary of taking these figures too literally.

    A close second in yesterday's sales was the price paid for a five-bedroom semi in Pembroke Park, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 which sold for €3.65m.

    The price fetched for the Ailesbury Drive house is a far cry from just over a decade ago when the top price paid for a house in the area was less than €890,000 for a six-bedroom semi-detached house with the more prestigious Ailesbury Road address.

    Tim Ryan, of the Institute of Professional Auctioneers and Valuers, said while the price paid was "astronomical", there were now many people with a lot of money who were willing to splurge on property, especially in sought-after areas.

    Most of the high-end buyers were not investors or property developers, but people with lots of money who intended to live in the houses themselves.

    "People forget there is an awful lot of money out there," he said.

    He said the sky is the limit for "anything with Ailesbury" in the address. "Anything in Dublin 4 or Dublin 6 is huge."

    Bank of Ireland chief economist Dan McLaughlin said the emergence of so-called "accidental millionaires" was fuelling the property market, with people who have made huge profits on the equity of their homes trading up or re-investing in more property.

    "The value of housing stock was almost €600bn last year yet the level of interest debt is €100bn," he said.

    "There is massive wealth in the housing market," he said. "The person who bought a house ten years ago may have seen the value increase dramatically and while in America and the UK people have dipped into their wealth to increase spending, in Ireland people are dipping into their housing wealth to buy more property."

  9. This is heading into the surreal, but . . . mainly late twenties to late thirties, fairly even split male/female/couples, and (pure guesswork here) mainly hetero.

    And this information is germain to the debate how?

    I love that word although I spell it differently to you. It is germane to the debate as I want to know if city living is sustainable in the toon, in terms of supply and demand.

    I believe there may be an oversupply of these types of property and an undersupply of traditional housing stock, although I may be wrong. As my username suggests, I am interested in these things

    Maybe with traffic congestion and cost of oil, people will want to live in city centres for more than 10 years, I don't know.

    I rent in Centralofts a 200k pad for 650 a month, and I am wondering why anyone would buy a new apartment at present.Asked the concierge, he reckons at least half are BTL.

    Let me know your views, maybe this forum has clouded my judgement :huh:

  10. The reason the guest workers are here now is because the Irish are having a party. A very big party. Ireland is now the most indebted nation in Europe, foreign direct investment has fallen for four years and continues to fall, productivity is falling and manufacturing employment is falling by about 10,000 jobs per annum.

    The Irish are building furnishing and financing between 75,000 and 80,000 new homes every year. We are building new homes at four times the rate of the rest of Europe. What would the UK be like if you were building 1,200,000 new homes every year? not just one year, every year. The Irish economy is the housing market, indebtednesses and associated spin offs.

    But the hangover, the hangover.

    <_<

    The immigrants bring no money earn poor money and spend no money in the country, and that helps the country how?

    Nearly all the jobs for Polish Paul and Latvian Lucas are in construction, so in an ironic way both the chicken and the egg will disappear at the same time.

    Ireland will have a 15 year recession starting late 2007 or early 2008 and housing will lead the way down.

    Boom for 15 more years my rosy red ****.

    This report gives no real reasons why this should happen, and no substantial analysis of the risks facing the economy. It's simply projecting current trends into the future and assuming all proceeds as before.

    Flippant dismissal of rising IRs

    No mention of the shocking rises in costs (0.7% inflation in Feb, wasn't it)

    No mention of oil prices

    No mention of the scary levels of indebtedness (see recent David McWilliams articles)

    Blatant spin. Pah.

    This from the Examiner today a little more realistic:

    23/03/06

    ‘Economy like a bird flying on one wing’

    By Brian O’Mahony Chief Business Correspondent

    CHIEF economist with Friends First Jim Power has described the economy as akin “to a bird flying on one wing” due to its huge exposure to the construction sector and the housing market.

    Mr Power said consumers were gripped by irrational exuberance as consumer spending has gone back up to levels reminiscent of the Celtic Tiger at its height.

    In contrast to the boom forecasts from the NCB Stockbrokers report, also published yesterday, Mr Power, in his quarterly economic review, warned the boom figures published by economists have very little meaning for indigenous firms struggling to survive.

    “The indigenous manufacturing sector has shed more than 9,000 jobs from 2003-2005. It is time policymakers support this sector by supporting investment in marketing activities, R&D and product innovation.

    “The cost base also has to be controlled and the State cannot continue to feed into the rising cost base of Irish business. “Our policymakers need to ensure that a sustainable indigenous economy is created alongside the housing sector and the public sector,” he said.

    His stance was supported by one of the leading professional bodies in the country. The Professional Insurance Brokers Association (PIBA) “strongly support economist Jim Power’s view of the economy, PIBA chairman Tommy Coyne said.

    “It is heartening to hear such a powerful call for policymakers to create a sustainable indigenous economy and alleviate the economy’s over- dependence on the construction sector.”

    Speaking at the launch of the Quarterly Economic Outlook, Mr Power said Irish housing stock was currently valued at about €530 billion and represents a significant level of personal wealth.

    Given the high level of home ownership in Ireland and the value of the housing stock, the fortunes of the market have a significant effect on consumer confidence and consumer spending.

    “A significant correction to house prices would have a substantial negative wealth effect on consumer confidence and would undermine the overall economy,” he warned.

  11. I've lived here all my life too.

    Well, I started out on £10K ten years ago, and struggled to pay the rent on a bedsit. But there are plenty of people in Newcastle who are going up the salary scale as well as the property ladder. As I said in my original post, I must have viewed two dozen apartments in Newcastle in the last couple of months, all over £200K and all occupied by home-owner vendors (as opposed to BTL trying to dispose). I don't put it forward as a scientifically arrived at representative sample, but these people do exist, and are buying the much-maligned (on here) properties that are being built to cater to them.

    Have a look on rightmove, over 100 2 bedroom apartments for sale in NE1.

    Do you not think this is oversupply?

    There are a limited number of 50k jobs & not all of these people want to live without pets or kids for the next 10 years, paying service charges on top of their £1000 a month mortgages.

    Can you give us a profile of the vendors: age, sex and sexual orientation would do for a start?

    And welcome to the forum :lol::lol::lol:

  12. One million immigrants to fuel boom for 15 years

    Report predicts 5m population,6pc annual growth and 3m cars

    Brendan Keenan

    Group Business Editor

    A MILLION immigrants over the next 15 years could swell the population to more than five million by 2020 and keep the economy and the housing market booming.

    The foreign-born population is probably at 400,000 already, and makes up one in eight of the workforce.

    In a major new long-term forecast, NCB Stockbrokers say the fastest-growing sectors of the economy will be the savings industry, hotels and restaurants, cars and computers as Ireland's baby boomers reach prime earning and spending age from now to 2020.

    The optimistic outlook emerges from a new analysis of the population on which NCB's economists worked with the Central Statistics Office.

    Among the findings are:

    The population will grow by almost a third and immigrants could make up one in five of residents by 2020.

    The number of cars on the road will almost double to 3m. An extra 700,000 dwellings will be needed to house the expanding population of working age.

    The Irish economy will far outstrip the rest of the EU, with the potential to grow by more than 5pc a year over the period.

    "Ireland's labour force structure is radically different from the rest of the EU," said NCB chief economist Dermot O'Brien.

    "Theirs is going to decline over the next 40 years, and at an accelerating pace, while ours continues to increase."

    The report argues that better economic prospects in Ireland will draw in more immigrants, and this in turn will spur faster growth.

    "We expect immigration to account for half the population growth between now and 2020," said NCB economist Eunan King.

    The new analysis challenges the perception that most immigrants are employed in building or semi-skilled areas like meat processing.

    Instead, the biggest proportion are working in professional jobs. Less than 10pc of unskilled workers are foreign-born, compared with 15pc of professionals.

    "The immigrants coming here have more third-level qualifications than the Irish-born population," Mr King said. "That is adding to the productivity of the economy. But there is no doubt the numbers we are forecasting will have significant implications for all aspects of society."

    The present immigrant population is made up more of family units than single people, the research finds.

    The average size of an immigrant household is just under three people - not much different from that of the Irish-born population. Only in Dublin and Cork cities did the report find a significantly larger number of single-person households.

    Based on their forecasts, NCB see continued strong demand for housing. Over 40pc of the 100,000 immigrant households in 2002 were in rented accommodation. But 34pc were buying on a mortgage, which was not much less than the 38pc of Irish families.

    Forecasts

    "We expect the demand for housing to be about 65,000 units per year until 2015, then slowing to 55,000 a year until 2020," Mr O'Brien said.

    He sees no reason for house prices to fall, although prices should slow to the same rate as incomes - 5pc to 7pc a year - if the market is to stabilise.

    "I do not see what could threaten the housing market.

    "The eurozone cannot support interest rates much above 4pc so there is no danger there.

    "We have already seen the resilience of the Irish economy after the global downturn in 2001, when employment just kept on growing."

    Even if immigration slowed to zero, the country will need more than 40,000 new houses a year.

    And the growth in population of working age means the number of cars on the road will rise by at least 600,000, and probably by 1.5 million, the report says.

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