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Everything posted by LeeT

  1. Is this a good opportunity to take a punt on a double (leveraged) short ETF on the DAX 30 (DS2P)? We have quite a few names from the naked short ban list amongst it's constituents.
  2. I rent in a largely student area. I try to time my moves for just before the start of the university year. I take down details of everything that may be suitable and arrange to see the most promising sounding 20 or 25. There's usually 4 or 5 which I'll shortlist and try to get the best deal on. I make sure that landlords see that I have a long list of property when I view and at best look slightly positive about a place. I try to arrive early to chat to passing neighbours about the landlord and previous tenant history. I always have a roll of crisp notes to show when it comes to discussing money. Landlords will often sell themselves short to get their hands on that pile of folding stuff if you dangle it in front of them. My main play is that it's now so close to the start of the academic year that if they don't accept my offer there's a good chance the property will remain empty until at least Christmas and maybe beyond. Then I suggest a cheaper monthly rent if I pay my rent 2 months in advance. Landlords in student areas like this as they're used to having the hassle of chasing people who are behind on the rent. My last ploy is to multiply a weekly rent by 4 to arrive at a monthly rent. It's amazing how many people don't realize there's 4.33 weeks in a month. eg Landlord wants £160 per week initially, mention £140 or his house is empty for longer, how about £130 but 2 months in advance. Cool, a deal so that's £520 per month then isn't it?
  3. I'm on my 16th private rented property and have generally had good experiences. None have been via an agent or required references. One landlord came round 3 times to inform me he'd reduced the already cheap rent again. Then again, he was a dotty old fool who would let himself into the house to varnish the formica. One landlord was notoriously shoddy. Having failed to make certain repairs in good time I brought the council in who had him carry out £7k of repairs. Unfortunately that's peanuts for him as he's the Rachman of Bradford with 20 or more houses of between 7 and 13 bedrooms all in a serious and dangerous state of dilapidation. His gas appliances have already killed 2 people to my knowledge. The worst landlord was a heroin dealer who once informed me that he was storing his gear and bulking agents in our cellar and that if I touched it or informed the police that my cellar was full of drugs he'd have his boys break my kneecaps and give me a Chelsea grin. A few days later somebody set off a badly made nail bomb outside the house next door, 15 feet from my bedroom. No real damage done but I got the hell out of there quick sharpish. Fortunately he'd never asked for a deposit. I currently have the cheapest rent of anybody I know with a landlord I've known for 15 years and am more than happy.
  4. Not strictly an answer to your question. In practice I've always reduced my final rent payments by the deposit amount to ensure I get my deposit back. Landlords have never strenuously objected to this arrangement. I'm now in my 16th rented property.
  5. More on Grant at Constituency Website and his forum his they work for you page. The first link has links to speeches and papers. The forum seems to be aimed at constituents.
  6. Assuming the rate goes from the current 17.5% to 20%, that would add 2.1% to the price of vatable goods ((1.00 + 0.20)/(1.00 + 0.175)) - 1 Since many goods incur no VAT the effect on inflation would be less than 2.1%. My best guess is that if there was no reduction in consumption due to the tax rise, £12b more would be collected in VAT revenues from £78b to £90b. How that relates to inflation I'm not sure, maybe our resident econometrician could elucidate. Inflation will likely be more affected by imported inflation as the £ continues to fall against other currencies. At any rate, it'll be good for my index linked bonds. Every cloud and all that... Re my above post mentioning VAT on food. I agree it's most unlikely to be imposed at 20%, but I wouldn't rule out 5% in a few years
  7. What happened to protecting the poorest in society? On a £10k wage, you'll end up paying no Income tax, but will likely get tax credits stripped so you're no better off really. Then the VAT hike. A £2.35 vatable good will cost £2.40 (2.1% rise), that's not too painful for the rich that can already afford luxuries. It's all those non vatable goods like food that could end up hurting the poor. A £1.00 good could go up to £1.20 (20% rise). Expect to see more discount stores, shoplifting for food and skip scavengers if they put VAT on basic food items.
  8. I've had a bash at rewriting your work, but it turned into a bit of bile in places.Sorry! I've added comments in italics in places. It sounds like a fun bit of work, I take it that it's for a degree project. It looks like you'll have some fun number crunching work to do too. You make no mention of the time frames and locations you're looking at, but I imagine you're thinking of the current UK situation. Are you looking at wage and income data, inflation etc. Anyway, good luck with it. Also be aware that my Uni essays were always really poor, so don't take too many of my changes on board. Your 'Abstract ' section says 'This paper will look at the price of commercial property and its reaction if any to borrowing. Your introduction says 'a specific emphasis on house prices'. My guess is that the first quote should say residential not commercial. Over recent years the state of the housing market and the price of residential property has given rise to much interest and debate amongst owners, potential buyers, economists, property professionals and media pundits. On the one hand TV programmes have led to much dinner party chatter on the part of instant experts. These middle class equivalants of the pub boor, know only that prices always rise, rent is dead money and equity withdrawal costs less than credit card interest. On the other hand empirical data is regularly published by academics and economic and financial institutions which is primarily aimed at industry or related professionals.The above mentioned self appointed experts are generally unaware of such data and would generally find it incomprehensible if they were aware of it. All but the most sophisticated would probably find it too worrying to contemplate if they did comprehend it. Property market crashes, like crashes in any market have the potential to cause catastrophic failure in the economic wellbeing of those that are over exposed to the crashed asset. Knock on effects have the potential to disturb the wider economy too. Given the scale of public exposure to the adverse consequences of a price crash, and the heightened risk of such a crash event occuring, many have formed the opinion that the property market is at the center of our economic woes. As secured credit provides the underpinnings for many property transactions this paper will look at the relationship between the cost of borrowing against residential property, changes in property prices and inflation indices. The purpose of this project is to present an analysis of the empirical data. This paper briefing discusses various areas of considerable theoretical and empirical interest. It sets out to explore the data used with a specific emphasis on house prices, and the effect if any, that borrowing and inflation have on prices. - largely stated in above paragraph The project will investigate the relationship between house prices, which may be influenced by the content used. - sorry, I don't know what you're driving at with that sentence. However, first of all it would be useful to review the nature of the available data in order to understand why certain data was selected for this project. Laying down these basic foundations and having a clear understanding of their relevance, will help to highlight which factors are significant and which data is more robust. - I'm guessing at your intent here. The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 will look at some background information, Section 3 will be looking at the research methods and data used, Section 4 provides an analysis about the implication of the results linking section 2 and 3, and Finally, Section 5 will provide a summary and conclusions. - what does Section 1 do? This project will not try to explain why, but will just give an indication of what may or may not be related to the roller coaster ride that is the property market. - does that mean you're looking for statistical relationships but not attempting to offer causal explanation eg of how say leading indicators such as unemployment rate affect prices, demand and inflation?
  9. I went to Luton once. I'm alright now, I got better. Luton is worst town in the UK ..Official!
  10. Alternatively an ETF such as iShares USD2. Edited to say I didn't initially notice that Hotairmail had already suggested an ETF.
  11. Well I'm very much a newbie to this but thought a few days ago that a FTSE short could be a good trade (on a week to couple of month time frame). It looks like my hunch was right but I lacked the confidence to follow it without more experience. Now I'm worried by the effect of the outcome of the election, so still not prepared to go in until I'm more confident in my entry. It's nice to have your insights Tamara, HAM and Kharma. Also thanks for the tunes HAM, here's one for you. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0GGts9jQ-k
  12. Tell me about it. This is what my local rag has to say Bradford T&A ' According to ElectoralCalculus 108000 votes were cast in 2005 across the 3 Bradford seats. The 58702 figure may include Keighley and Shipley constituencies too though, so maybe nearer to 180000 votes cast. If we assume you don't apply for a postal ballot if you do not wish to vote and take the 180000 voters in 5 constituency figure, approx 1 in 3 votes are postal and many are open to fraud. We had court cases over electoral fraud last time in my seat and have had arrests this time. There's seems little point in me voting in what I'm sure is a rigged ballot.
  13. Who To Vote For To Get Lower House Prices? My local Labour MP has a majority of approx 3000 over his nearest Conservative rival. My Conservative candidate runs a property development business providing shops, offices and 'affordable' housing. I guess he must be keen to have an HPC to make his houses more affordable and his business less profitable. No, wait a minute....something's wrong.
  14. So that's where they spend what they don't spend on PFI, pensions and bank bailouts. from HM Treasury 2010/11 Budget Just for a laugh look at Ali Darling's defecit forecasts made in November '08.
  15. How Bad Is It In Greece? I've found George Paps diary for tomorrow at www.ana-mpa.gr/. ----- (Foreign Publication) - PRESS RELEASE - PRESS PM - PROGRAMME PM George Papandreou FOR TOMORROW, THURSDAY 29 APRIL PRESS OFFICE PM Athens, April 28, 2010 'Prime Minister George Papandreou will meet tomorrow, Thursday, April 29 at 11.30 am, with the Presidents of the Economic and Social Committee of Greece (OKE), the General Confederation of Greek Workers (GSEE), the General Confederation of Professional Craftsmen and Merchants (GSEBEE), the Supreme Command of Unions of Public Servants (ADEDY), the Federation of Enterprises (SEV), the National Confederation of Greek Commerce (ESEE) and the Association of Greek Tourist Enterprises (SETE). (Homicide cases) At 3.30 pm, the Prime Minister will meet with Prime Minister of Serbia, Mirko Cvetkovic. Statements will follow. (Homicide cases) '. ----- That's how bad it will get. They're going to get all union leaders together and the Serbian PM (not sure what he did wrong) and have them killed.
  16. How about 'I'm considering buying a house, but unsure about the effect the outcome of the election will have. Under each of your parties policies would I be better to wait for a significant downward correction in house prices before buying or wait until near double digit inflation looks set to erode the true value of my mortgage? Also, would you help me with my mortgage costs as Labour do at present should I lose my job when unemployment takes off?'
  17. Rightmovelist 561 properties in Nottingham as studio or 1 bed. 900 as 2 beds, 502 as 3 beds, 328 as 4 or more beds. 561 + 900 + 502 + 328 = 2291 properties to rent on Rightmove Going to Nottingham Census Data and downloading housing type article (Word Doc) we find 120246 properties in Greater Nottingham in 2001. In Nottingham Key Facts and Figures if you download the Mar '09 update we find '8,516 dwellings were built in Nottingham between April 2001 and March 2008'. Assuming no properties have been demolished/converted and none completed since March 2008 that gives us 128762 properties in Greater Nottingham. My best guess is that 1.78% of properties in Nottingham are for rent via Rightmove. Does not sound like a good market for landlords to me. I've linked to the Web resources I used for Nottingham. That took 10 minutes of Googling, downloading and calculating. Is there a better way of doing this?
  18. 'A Freehold Former Public Convenience........Vacant Possession' So this is not a cottage in the country then?
  19. Just an idea. I may be wrong. Wasn't the budget at 2pm on Wednesday? Remember. This is Engerland. Nobody saw the budget. Jeremy Kyle, Neighbours and 60 Minute Makeover were all on at 2pm. All most people know is that there was a budget and they've heard nothing about it that scared them. That's good news for a budget. Hence the increased approval ratings.
  20. I think it's an improvement on the old system where contracts needed to be signed with the landlord before a benefit claim was made and then the tenant found out how much of their own giro needed to go towards rent. At least the current system is simpler and clear in advance. The cash perk is indeed quite crafty. It is insanely easy money for the claimant to get a tax free £780pa added to benefits for a bit of haggling, but it does save the tax payer money over not giving it at all. I think on balance I'm for it but don't think it perfect. A lower rent flat payment system is cheaper and easier to administer. Edited to add - An extra £15pw isn't a trivial matter to the tenant when a giro is £64.30pw. (23% increase). I have known sensibly priced rents to be increased to the maximum LHA when a tenant becomes unemployed. For a hypothetical example. The old rent when the tenant is in work was £55pw. Once unemployed a contract is made up to say £85pw where LHA max is £100pw. Council pays £100pw. Landlord accepts only £70 and the tenant keeps £30. The result of this is the landlords rent is increased. He doesn't worry about tax implications because he's of the opinion that nobody ever gets caught for not declaring rental income for tax purposes anyway. The tenant is now £30pw better off than on a standard giro and has little incentive to go out and get a minimum wage job. Therefore tenant becomes long term unemployed and is more inclined to stay put in the house. Everyone's a winner, except the tax payer. .
  21. The system certainly does need some work. I live in Bradford which recently came no 1 in a survey of UK cities for housing affordability (comparing mean local full time wage with mean local house price). Yet still housing benefit will pay the landlord of a single claimant over 25 years old more than many minimum wage earners would be prepared to pay in rent. There is also an up to £15 per week cash incentive for tenants to find cheap rents. If your rent is lower than the mean rent you get to keep up to the first £15 of the cash. I'm not sure exactly how this works but claimants I know are effectively in receipt of this commision for doing the leg work in finding a cheap hovel to live in rather than the best the council would pay out on. I hear that the top 10% of rents are to be excluded for calculating new Local Housing Allowance rates. This is certainly a start in reducing the tax burden HB imposes. I think there should be a sliding scale between regions too. So that people who live in expensive areas can claim less than the average rent in their area whereas people who live in cheaper areas can claim the average for their area. Anyway here's a couple of links so we can all figure out whether to quit our hard working jobs and become doleys or alternatively wait for the crash and become the new BTL Rachman landlord types milking the council in HB. How Housing Benefit Works LHA Regional Rents List
  22. No, I've not read his Genesis. I've seen a few pages of it only and some of his artwork. I picked the avatar up almost at random.
  23. Good thinking. You may be right, but I'm not convinced its not just a **** up. Damn those Yanks and their tricksy number system. That would make the wealth of these billionaires seem 1000 times more obscene than it did already. So a US company that loses $1.5 Bn has lost more than a UK company losing £1 Bn? I'm going to have to question everything I thought I knew about numbers. Every international comparison I see only makes sense with a billion having 9 zeros.
  24. Eh? So the poorest billionaire (who has very slightly more than $1 billion) is over 300 million times wealthier than the average US resident. So the average resident has less than $1 billion / 300 million = $3.33? If they average $3.33 each and there is 307 million Americans, they only have slightly more than $1 billion between them. I'm confused. Can the HPC forensic accountancy team shed any light?
  25. Nope, he's right. This table showing changes in public sector employment levels from ONS page. Please note: The 2008 Q4 employment increase reflects the classification of the Royal Bank of Scotland Group and Lloyds Banking Group to the public sector (with effect from 13 October 2008). Note the vast swathes of people these banks employ too. Those median wages do seem high. That is assuming they include part time workers. Or are they full time equivalent wages in which case they look more like right?
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