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About broker1234

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  1. hell yeh, lets shoot all the bankers that process the food stamps, that will help! And while we are at it, lets tie up a few footballers and burn them too, 60k a week for running round a field with a football, outrageous capitalism, right...BAN it, yes you heard me, BAN it, football is BANNED, bankers are BANNED, whose next...you with the Rolex on, you f*cking basard ****, burn the f*cker. Does this sound like a rational answer to post on a forum to you?
  2. Thanks for the link, very interesting. By all accounts it looks like the dollar carry trade is set to continue for at least another six months...certainly chimes with the views I have heard elsewhere.
  3. 6 months later the Romanians employed the same guy. This time he didn't knock. Job completed.
  4. Does anyone on this forum play games consoles? If not, then its unlikely that you know how many great games came out over the past 12 months - or not as the case may be. Cyclical industry. Buy low, sell high. Is under £1 cheap? Anyone seen the consoles due to be launched H2 2010? Mind blowing - they connect to your brain along with 3D televission - no controller, moves by the power of thought. Thats not a wind-up, I read about it. Do you think people are going to go for it?
  5. With all of this in mind, consider the latest Global Strategy Weekly from Soc Gen’s Albert Edwards, a renowned Bear with a considerable following. His view assumes the above theory on the dollar carry trade is now unwinding as interest rates are raised in the US, both to combat imported inflation and support the dollar, and takes this scenario into a hypothetical 2010. “I think the next 18 months will see major ructions in the financial markets. The consequences of a double-dip back into recession next year require some lateral thinking. If the carry trade unwind results in a turbo-charged dollar, any collapse in the China economic bubble will be doubly destructive to commodity prices. A surging dollar, coupled with China moving into sustained trade deficit through 2010, could prompt the Chinese authorities to acquiesce to US pressure for a more flexible exchange rate. But why does no-one expect a yuan devaluation? Imagine we are in the middle of 2010. Imagine the western economies (plus Japan) are sliding back into recession as the lack of additional fiscal stimulus reduces 2010 GDP growth back to its weak underlying rate (deficits need to widen to boost the economy). Imagine also that in 2010 the Chinese economy is beginning to roll over. China’s vulnerability is perhaps far higher than the bulls suppose, having engaged in the same sort of recession defying stimulus as the US in 2003. The US authorities in no way thought gently tapping the monetary brakes in 2005/6 would end in the biggest economic and market crashes since the Great Depression. Personally, I see the Chinese conjuncture as little different, in particular the markets’ confidence that the authorities are in control of events opens the possibility of a rude shock. I am reassured that my views are not totally bananas when two of the deepest thinkers in the markets are also concerned about a Chinese economic crash. Edward Chancellor thinks China is a bubble waiting to burst ( - he is one of the worlds’ leading thinkers on bubbles and the author of the seminal book on the history of bubbles - The Devil Take the Hindmost). I was also reading a news report on the views of Jim Chanos at Kynikos Associates. Amid all the bullish hype on China, it is well worth taking some time to read these men’s views. Any synchronized end in Chinese and US recovery will undoubtedly heighten geo-political tensions and accelerate the inevitable trend towards protectionism. The trend towards competitive devaluation will also increase. And in the case of China, if its economy founders unexpectedly and unemployment soars, no lever to restore growth should be ruled out, including devaluation. With the potential for the dollar to soar, in the same way the yen did in 2008 as risk carry trades unwound, this may be all too much for a beleaguered Chinese economy. With a Chinese trade deficit and a loss of confidence in the growth miracle, China’s reserves will in all probability be in decline. What better way of meeting the American’s call for greater flexibility than to give them what they want? The Chinese may yet respond to the new market pressures and devalue. 2010 could be a very lively year indeed. Happy new year.” Goodbye, I really have better things to do.Argue amongst yourselves.
  6. Once again shown up by your complete ignorance. 1) I do not work for a bank 2) I have never worked for a bank 3) The vast majority of people in the City do not work for a bank. 4) The vast majority of people who DO work for a bank had nothing to do with the credit crunch 5) The credit crunch waas caused by a tiny proportion of people within the banking trading fraternity who messed things up for everybody, albeit there were in fact doing as instructed by the government and creating instruments that woulld allow the 'poor' people with appalling credit history to buy their own homes. This was bound to end in tears but it was actually the idea of Gordon Brown and him alone. Everybody told him it was a bad idea but to no avail. The fact he could then blame this on the whole banking community and then idiots like you think people like me, who works for private, retail, high net clients in the UK are in some way to blame is a reflection on your appalling lack of understanding regarding the financial world. A lack of knowledge breeds fear and the government has certainly exploited these emoptions amongst the general population and successfully convinced the world it was entirely the fault of the bankers, not him copying the US lending model and impinging it on ALL of us for decades to come. I cannot be bothered to explain how the financial world works to every wally on the internet. I suggest before getting angry or insulting people you try and find out what the F8ck you are on about.
  7. Wow those 'real' investors outside the City must really have their fingers on the pulse of the action. Its amazing in this digital world of technology we need trading floors at all. Maybe we could all sit in our homes and chat online instead, i am sure we would pick up just the same information instead of convening in London at 7am everyday This is going to come as a shock to you but some people can predict with accuracy what will happen in the stockmarket. Many tried and the majority of those who couldn't have now been fired. These amazing and mysterious people are called stockbrokers. The ones that got fired call themselves Home Traders. Maybe you should try contacting a decent broker and then instead of bitching all last year you could have enjoyed the best nine months in a generation. Enough of this trivial banter. Go back to your banker bashing and general whingeing whilst the City will just plough on making money, propping up the entire economy whilst giving two fingers to fools like you. The whole world is not conspiring against you. Remember that.
  8. Maybe you should do my job? Or do your own analysis? And quite deliberately i do not state what I am buying or selling. You want that information you have to pay for it my friend. The only person who made money from that book was the chap who wrote it, not the mug that bought it. Perhaps you should telephone Deutsche bank and tell them your theory? As they have no declared interest in the stocks they are recommending, it would be an interesting chat.
  9. Thats quite a deep thinking article to dissect, even for me. I am a bit busy so have only read it briefly - it appears the thinking is a bit confused at first glance.... The collapsing dollar is a planned exercise, the renminbi is pegged to the dollar and it suits both parties for their exports to remain competitive during these troubled times. As Minutes from the Fed stated, things are 'proceeding in an orderly fashion'. The dollar carry trade is an indirect consequence of the weak dollar, is was not part of a planned strategy by the Fed (I dont think so anyway). What money is selling dollars? Silly question really, various institutions, funds, high net clients etc... are all doing it. I dont really follow that point, maybe i need to read the article again. China also are selling dollars to keep their own currency competitive as they export in the main and are trying to avoid a collapse. The weak dollar is causing the rise in commodity stocks, the dollar rally last month was triggered by much stronger payroll numbers in November than expected which led to speculation the fed would have to raise rates sooner than initially anticipated. The dollar rallied 5 and 8% against the euro and yen respectively in December. This rally is now petering out and the dollar is weakening against the euro and yen and you are seeing the stockmarket rise due to this and good figures. The minimum reserves for banks are likely to be increased due to the recent credit crunch so it makes sense that banks are hoarding cash at the moment in anticipation of this likely event (a new act to make 'em hold more cash all the time). But yes, it is a problem for tomorrow not today. Inflation is not a threat yet but one way or another, either directly or indirectly, printing money will cause inflation even if that inflation is imported. It may not happen next year but when the fed stops printing money and starts raising rates, you might want to consider an inflation linked bond. Maybe!
  10. There is very little on the market - fact. Landlords are buying up property and passing on the mortgage cost plus whatever they can get away with to those who cannot afford to buy - fact. Until you address these two issues the market will remain at artificial levels. If you taxed the landlords on their rental income to the point it was no longer worth the hassle of being a landlord then the property market would find a natural balance. While the few control the many this can never occur. i would actively encourage every person renting to give details of their address to the government, check on land registry who owned the property and tax all rental income at 50%.
  11. HI, I am a stockbroker, been waiting to buy a house for some time. The time is coming soon in my opinion, but we have further to fall yet. I am waiting for people to get truly desperate before screwing them into the floorboards.....i mean i think we are due a further correction
  12. If only it were quite that simple Buy note out on the banks today, Barclays breaking trend, good economic data yesterday boosting sentiment...there are sectors that remain cheap and those that have rallied on the back of a falling dollar (rather than an increase in real demand). I dare say the two will balance themselves out - i should think this year will be extremely dull to a casual observer in terms of points on the FTSE. Individual stocks will rally and fall within the FTSE sphere. China will put a spanner in the works when their economic progress is exposed for the giant government sponsored spending spree rally that it is. The UK, however, should do rather well
  13. I am a stockbroker and maybe I can answer your question. The FTSE 100 is largely dominated by oil and mining shares and these are denominated in dollars. As the dollar weakens, the mining stocks and oil stocks will rise to reflect this change. The pound has little to do with it even though most stocks on the ftse do bill in £££, indeed only a few such as AZN and JMAT actually bill in dollars. RDSA bills in euros as does ISAT but this has very little to do with their performance. As the dollar has now hit a very low point, a 14 yr low against the Yen for example, it has been used instead of the yen as a carry trade currency, i.e investors have borrowed dollars on low interest rates to invest the money elsewhere in currencies yielding a better rate of interest (countres with higher interest rates). You will over the next 12 months see this carry trade unravel, as and when the yanks put up their rates. This will cause investors to rush to buy back the dollars they initially borrowed and the dollar will rise. This is likely to become an extremely serious problem and is what generally leads to hyper-inflation. The more people rush to buy them back, the faster the dollar will rise. Couple that with the effects on the stockmarket. A rapidly rising dollar will cause mining shares particularly to plunge as the commodities become more expensive. China will rein back its buying, exacerbating the problem (it has a bubble all of its own just waiting to pop). The pound would only be of importance if a lot of people traded commodities priced in ££'s or the UK was a big exporter which would make our goods more expensive to others. Well, commodities are priced in $$$ and we export very little, nor are we likely to start anytime soon if the government has any sense. Competing with a million indians on tuppence a day is just not feasible. The Euro is weak due to problems in Greece, italy etc... and was always a stupid idea that will eventually fall apart. Greece now desperately need to devalue their currency for example, but cannot as they are now part of the 'Euro'. Nor can they print money like the UK as they are members of the 'Euro'. A single currency spanning so many countries was always an absolutely daft ideology in the first place but people will never listen until it all goes pete tong. So you can expect a rising dollar, inflation in the US, crippling taxation in the UK, serious fall-outs in Europe and the pound will have very little to do with any of it... Best place to put your money? Well that all depends if you are long, short or a combination of the two really. i doubt the bank is going to give you a great rate.
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