roblpm

Crikey!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have been at this game for years and have never found those RoS monthly figures on the RoS website. Did they tell you that on Radio 4 as well??

Undoubtably true, however as someone pointed out before there is much less supply. In some areas of the city where there arent many houses this really means there is nothing particularly good on sale over the winter, i know cos i have looked every winter for the last 5 years!

When I said 100% guranteed i was joking. I have no idea!! But i think if you search all the other Edinburgh threads you will find someone did a bit of analysis and worked out the usual Spring bounce. Personally whatever the Spring bounce I would reckon the prices will be 10% lower in a year (btw I have just bought so now have no interest in more falls!). The unemployment figures are pretty bad and mortgage availability is not really improving. So whatever the ESPC say, Edinburgh QoQ figures are meaningless due to this seasonal effect. Just keep looking at the YoY. In fact I seem to recall someone graphed the ESPC figures. Any clues anyone?

As I have posted in other threads, there's an easy explanation for this. Edinburgh seems to have a crazy spring bounce every year. So I would guess that the RoS stats will have an upward quarter or 2 when the figures come out (which is ages away). The ESPC figures are much quicker but even they show a yoy 10.9% fall. So spring bounce followed by gradual falls, repeat annually for a couple of years! 100% guaranteed!

Geed Hard to tell as the condition varies wildly. I know about 25 Greenbank Park as we had an offer accepted on it in 2005 but pulled out due to the enormous amount of work it needed. A couple more below from nethouseprices, again a massive variation, but as you can see between half and 3/4 of what they are now!! So could be a long way to go. Got the keys to ours, but a big overlap as our rental contract ties us in for another couple of months so getting it decorated etc. 9 Greenbank Park, Edinburgh, Midlothian, EH10 5SP £170,000 Application No: 02MID09216 Title No: MID21683 Application Type: FR Deed Codes: 11 11 Application Date 15-May-2002 Map (EH10 5SP) Full Details 14 Greenbank Park, Edinburgh, Midlothian, EH10 5SR £240,000 Selfcontained Dwelling House Application No: 02MID01336 Title No: MID16411 Application Type: FR Deed Codes: 11 20 Application Date 18-Jan-2002 Map (EH10 5SR) Full Details

No idea what % this is off the peak etc etc but this: http://www.espc.com/Buying/276040.html 19 Greenbank Park, EDINBURGH, EH10 5SP Detached House, Offers Around £320,000, Reference: 276040 Is fairly similar to this: 25 Greenbank Park, Edinburgh, Midlothian, EH10 5SP £320,000 Application No: 05MID25484 Title No: MID80728 Application Type: FR Deed Codes: 11 20 Application Date 19-Sep-2005 Map (EH10 5SP) Full Details

Hamish, just out of interest, could you dig out some Lloyds predictions from 2 years ago? Assuming they were within a few percent of where we are now I will be happy to base all my ffuture decisions on their current predictions.

This is a great graph. Thanks for your efforts. however as sure as eggs is eggs the trend will be up for the next couple of months in edinburgh!! Spring bounce is on! I am sure the trend will be down but the next quarter of these results will have people trumpeting recovery before the pnward downward trend over next winter, the inevitable spring bounce etc etc etc zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Jamestown, feel free to broaden the discussion. A lot of us have been on this forum for years and I tell you it gets pretty dull waiting for the supertanker to turn!! After 100 discussions of the latest 0.1% monthly change the mention of working visas is pretty exciting. What no-one has mentioned as far as I can see is rental yields. What would be the rent if you decided to do something else? I have no idea about that part of town but if you pay £170k for a flat, the interest alone will be £566 a month at 4%. Also if you want to let it you will have to convert to a buy to let mortgage and I see that the deposits on these are now about 30% so you wont be able to get one. So say you buy it, work and then want to buy another place and rent it out chances are you wont be able to! Look up some threads on margin calls as well. Bear in mind how out of whack prices are to rentals, I bought a flat in london in 1997 which had a rental yield of over 10%. Hope this doesnt depress you too much, why not just rent and have fun and buy in 5 years when you want to settle down? And the prices are less than now?

Yep great location, great views out the back as you look over the houses in Greenbank Park to the Pentlands, garden is great. House is small!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Getting a garden office as a stop gap!

Sofargone, I'm just being mysterious cos you wouldnt tell me which one you bought in case I am a mad stalker!! (which I'm not!) Anyway we are in Greenbank Gardens on the internal corner. We bought it before it went on the ESPC, my wife saw the for sale sign on the saturday, got an appointment on the tuseday morning and we had an offer accepted on the tuesday lunchtime. Not sure it ever went on the espc. We offered at the "offers around" price. There was plenty of interest though! We had the estate agent hassling us on the wednesday as we had offered subject to survey (that meant me actually looking at it!) and they had other people interested.

Well ours is the only one we have ever seen that hasnt been extended or modified but is in move in condition barring a bit of decorating. The old lady who lived there was obviously very house proud! Non through road, just about the highest point in greenbank, so even though the word on the street is that domestic wind turbines arent much good, i think we may have the ideal location for one!

ccc, where you from originally?

Moves because: House A let by DJ Alexancer!! Water coming in through roof, sewage in the garden etc etc! House B very nice, 900 per month out of the catchment area that child a was already in, not guaranteed that child b would get in! House C very expensive but only place in catchment area when we needed it, will only let on fixed 12 month terms. Potential rental house D needs to be unfurnished, have wooden floors as child b has asthma and preferably not miles away from the school again. Hmmmmmm aha there aren't any of them at £1000pm!! I think its all very well, but if you have kids the letting situation is not good. I'm sure somewhere on here there are threads about German / French style letting arrangements, but in the UK it sucks! Hence the manic urge to own property that got us in this mess in the first place! If it was just me I'd be renting a slum anywhere for a couple of hundred quid a month, but it aint!!

MH you could be rich being a property consultant?? You thought of setting up a Phil Spencer style relocation business for people who want to buy in Marchmont.

The people in Morningside are actually all very friendly, its just after we lived in Camden, next to Tower Bridge and Brixton for the 10 years before we moved up here its a bit of a culture shock!! You certainly dont get mugged/robbed as much!

15k for 2 years interest on 375k Beatable with who?? Icelandic Banks R Us!! My wife went and took a load of our money and put it in NSI last October! Irrational I know but she is more worried about losing it all than the interest. I had money in Icesave which I got back but made my missus very nervous!!

and now i am started i will continue................. I will record here that greenbank wont drop more than another 20% (fun to come back and see if i am wrong! Unfortunately loads of potential buyers. One over the road from us that was a doer upper had 6 notes of interest about a month ago. Detached house (ok bungalows!) with good size gardens in a good catchment area will not drop the same kind of % as leith newbuild flats. So whilst I agree we should have waited i dont think they are going to halve from here.

fflump, where are you from originally? The advantage of Portobello over morningside is some normal people!!

fflump Both kids in south morningside, compared to where we lived in london its like harvard! ccc I am sure I am mental too, but happy! 24gray24 you are right so: By waiting save: £75000 house £2250 stamp duty £11700 (interest after tax) less £33600 Rent £2000 cost of moving an extra time £5850 tax credit = £47500 Aha i was right as well! But just wrote it in an illogical fashion. I have to say I htink the house would have gone for £450k at peak (see 10 greenbank road, 19/10/06, £450803) so we already down by about 17%. So is there another 23% to go?? Trouble is with all this is there is no way to know, and I am terrible with uncertainty, definitely worth £47.5k to me to get on with it. However if it is more like £100k then.....................................!

Folks, As a long time HPCer and poster I thought I ought to 'fess up! We have been renting for the last 4 years after moving up from London, 3 different houses and were facing moving again in August. 2 small children. So to cut a long story short a bungalow cam up in Greenbank and we bought it at the offers around price, I hadnt even looked at it when we put the offer in!! Wife liked it. Have to say I am very happy! Get the keys tomorrow. The estate agent said "Oooh you got that for about £75,000 less than you would have a year ago" and I said "yeah and it will be £75,000 cheaper in a year's time".!! But for a number of reasons its a good move, one kid has asthma so manky letting places are out, the money we had in the bank generating interest is now generating zippity zip, so the sums are progressively getting worse. If you are on tax credits the interest from your STR fund get taken off your tax credits at a rate of 39% so if you get £5000 interest income you lose £1950 in tax credits! So to sum up, if we could have held out another year or 2 we would be say £50k better off in the long run (or would we!?!) Say 2 years buying house all cash: Save £75k on house (375k to 300k) plus £2250 in stamp duty due to cheaper purchase price. Spend £33600 on 2 years rent (£1400 a month for decent rental house). Lose £15000 (less tax so only £11700) in interest at 2%. Get £5850 extra in tax credit due to not getting as much interest. Lose 2k moving twice. So where does that put us: £47500!! Amazing, I hadnt worked that out in advance!! So if we could buy the identical house for £300k in 2 years that's the scores on the doors. The longer we rent the worse that gets as the rent is now more than the lost interest on the money in the bank.

mattn, couldn't agree more. As I posted on the other Edinburgh thread, seems to me there will always be an Edinburgh spring bounce. It will just be at a slightly lower level next year and the year after!

Not entirely surprising, Edinburgh seems to have a 2 month a year property market! So will go up by 10% this quarter then down 20% by the beginning of next year and so on!

OK not that I am a mad stalker or anything, but are you now in Greenbank Road?? (I wont post the actual address of the one i think you bought??!!).

Own up, did you buy in Greenbank in the end??!! My wife is round looking at the greenbank gardens one again, we offered them 350k ages ago! No dice obviously! Still at a 25k reduction per quarter it will be a 100k cheaper in a years time! I am now racking my brains to think which one you have ended up with!! Good luck, we will be your neighbours soon!