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House Price Crash Forum


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About RichardW

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    HPC Newbie
  1. Thanks, I'll download Eclipse and have a look. As much as I love Delphi it is about time I accepted I'm the only person in the world who seems to use it. Maybe this could be an opportunity to drag my skills into the 21st century. Richard.
  2. Thanks, that's a great help. I've written a couple of programs to do the web scraping already (one for foxtons and one for rightmove) but in Delphi but they are a bit messy. I wanted to have a look and see somebody elses implementation, but I'm no Java programmer (I prefer Delphi or if I must, VB). Why JBuilder ? I'm a fan of the Borland IDE and already had it installed. Richard.
  3. Hi, a few weeks ago I downloaded a program from this forum called Right_Mover_Hoover . I can't find the original thread so can't find out you wrote it. Anyway, I thought I'd take a look at it last night but JBuilder won't load the Java files. Has anybody successfully compiled it, and if so with which compiler ? Thanks, Richard.
  4. Another book just out this month (US), "House Poor: Pumped-Up Prices, Rising Rates, and Mortgages on Steroids " http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0...0285233-9161430 I love the strap line: "How to Survive the Coming Housing Crisis" Richard.
  5. We were discussing a paper by Anderew Oswald, an Econmist at Warick, which led me to follow some link to this interesting chart on his web site. http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economic...ilunemq2004.pdf Quite a strong correlation between the Oil Price and Unemployment. Draw your own conclusions... Richard.
  6. Andrew Oswald published an updated note to this paper in Jan 2004 http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economic...singjan2004.pdf For those who can't be bothered to read the link "I think that although I may look wrong now, in fact the fundamentals of the housing market look worse than a year ago. Most of the indicators of an overheated housing market have become more extreme."..... "Actually the strategy I recommended in 2003 would have done people well. I argued that for those with the flexibility to do so, it was sensible to sell houses and, if you had the courage, to put the proceeds into shares."..... "My kinds of forecasts about the national housing market have so far been incorrect. But for how long?" Richard.
  7. There's been a number of posts recently about a march / protests. Maybe being more active might be a good thing. But if we do it I say do it properly, with plenty of notice and get other groups involved like the NUS and other groups that like a good campaign like the Urban75 site. My problem is though, what would you actaully be marching for. It's no good saying "it's not fair, people should lower the price of their houses" , you can't march against market forces. You'd have to be marching for some sort of legislation, higher stamp duty on second homes,abolish tax relief on rent, I'm just pulling things out the air and I don't even think I want these things but I don't think campaigning against high prices alone is enough. Richard.
  8. Before you buy in Chiswick make sure you think about the impact of the third runway at Heathrow. The noise map of the current situation here http://www.baa.com/assets/B2CPortal/Static...lanDrawing5.pdf shows that Chiswick isn't too bad for aircraft noise, but the next map showing the impact of the new runway shows Chiswick will be affected. http://www.baa.com/assets/B2CPortal/Static...lanDrawing6.pdf Richard.
  9. FF, good to hear an EA's point of view. But i'm not sure I buy the "poor EA having to live of commission" argument. If EA's commissions are are based 1 or 2% of the house price and the house price has doubled in the last 10 years (or whatever) are EA's doing twice as much work to justify the fact they are earning twice as much by selling it. No, in fact in a rising market were people chase property EA's do less work and earn more. Lets just hope (for their sake) that the EA's banked a bit of cash to fall back on when times are harder. Richard.
  10. Good post, things do seem to get a bit petty here sometimes. The problem is you have a number of EA's that make the whole process of Buying or Selling horrible. I'm sure there are rational intellegent ones out there but I have yet to deal with one but I look forward to the day I do. To pick up on your point "all properties on my books are 20% overpriced" – they’d be committing financial suicide. I did actaully have an agent in London say "we add 10% on the valuation" to see who will bite. Though like you say, the vendor is client and it's in their interests. One good thing about a HPC is it would get rid of the cowboy EA's and sort the wheat from the chaff. Richard.
  11. I just wanted to chip in my thoughts, firstly the in-debted society is something I’ve also been thinking about. It’s not that people in debt will take low paid jobs as was stated earlier, it’s that people in debt *need* jobs and therefore pay taxes. Ultimately any government needs its citizens to pay tax and the best way of doing this is forcing them to work and tax their salary. It also feeds nicely into house prices. The government wants you, needs to, have a nice big mortgage so you have to earn, and pay tax, to pay it off. The last thing they want to for people to pay off their mortgage and then have no incentive to work. On the subject of degrees, the problem is that the government (I think it was the last Tory one, but the current didn’t stop it) set a target of 50 % of people going to higher education. This is ridiculous. As you go through the education system it should by definition get harder and harder and people should fail to make the grade along the way. It is an education system, it is designed to be elitist, a meritocracy. As such how can you say that 50% should be allowed to qualify for the “higher education” system. By turning out a higher number of graduates people are not more intelligent but the barrier to entry has obviously been lowered. As a result of the massive increase in students at university the universities or government clearly could/can not afford to fund them so cutting grants and introducing fees was inevitable. If we had never set a target of people getting into university then there still could be a grant system (though I agree this probably isn’t a fair way, but I’ll leave that for another debate) for the those that attain the academic qualifications to university. The big problem I think is that now we have the situation where today’s graduates are paying more for a degree that is worth less than those of 8/9 years ago. Not taking into account the argument that degrees are easier but I am saying they are worth less because the supply is so much greater. The upshot of this is that we have qualification inflation going on. It is now the case where a degree is expected but you will need a Masters or Phd to get the job. Just chucking my 2ps worth in. Sorry it's a big long, I got in a bit of a rant and couldn't stop. Richard.
  12. That's interesting how it is just completly static now. Given the prior rise it does seem almost artificial as though they don't want more property on their books ?
  13. I'm not sure why the have gone up. Properties that were 250k last summer seem to have gone up to 270, though given that pushes you over the stamp duty threshold I suspect they actual sale price (if they sell) will be 250k. Last september Foxtons knocked around 10k off a lot of their stock in Richmond but I think they've manged to sneak prices back up.
  14. I STR last year. I'm so far happy with that decision as prices have not moved in the area I sold since then (Feltham) even though they have gone up in the area I was thinking about buying in. (Richmond) My question is when do you think will be the time to buy again? My view is that I think we will see continued stagnation in asking prices till the spring; however I think that sellers will be accepting increasingly low offers on their houses to sell them (maybe 10% below asking price.) I then think we may see a bit of a bounce next spring with sellers being able to achieve closer to their asking price (but still no or little rise in asking price). As such I think as we come into the winter it might be time for me to look around and put silly offers in on houses. What are your thoughts?
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