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House Price Crash Forum


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About padawan

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  1. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle3818913.ece
  2. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5228684.stm "Pakistan springs shock rate rise Pakistan has announced a surprise interest rate increase of half a percentage point as higher oil and commodity prices feed inflation." Odds on a GB rate rise starting to shorten?
  3. Hello All I am a single person who rents a flat from a private landlord. The landlord lives next door and I believe that this is his is only property. For the last two days (and also previously) I have had the strong impression that someone has been in the flat while I have been at work (by the smell and small changes). Nothing has been taken and this can only have been done by using the key and so I can only assume my landlord has been letting himself in to have a look around. The thought of this makes me cross and I would be grateful for any thoughts about what I can do about this. Thanks
  4. With a flourish of his red cape the matador leads the bull on another futile charge into thin air. Confused and dizzy the giant animal shakes his head and snorts. Bred for size but not intelligence the poor dumb animal spins and faces his lithe and wily opponent once again. Sweating and increasing desperate he goes again for the cape but to no avail as it is whipped away leaving him dazed and uncertain. Bucking now and stamping his feet he tries to intimidate his opponent but the man just calmly stands and watches the antics knowing the time will come…
  5. Ha ha what a bag of it. Either they are really stupid or think that us living in London are really stupid. As far as I can see we have not finished with the last boom yet. By the way anecodotally I'm continuing to keep my eye on the flat market in my area (SW London). Maybe the City Bonus Effect hasn't trickled down to sort of places i'm interested in but I've seen no sign whatsoever of a take off in prices.
  6. http://investing.reuters.co.uk/Investing/F...RLING-CLOSE.XML "LONDON, June 14 (Reuters) - Sterling hit a one-week high against the dollar and rose versus the euro on Wednesday, as a run of strong inflation data this week revived talk of a possible hike in British interest rates. Against the dollar, sterling extended gains in afternoon trade after a stronger than expected U.S. core inflation reading sparked fears that U.S. interest rates may be raised too far, hurting the economy. Annual average earnings growth in Britain picked up to 4.4 percent in the three months to April -- its highest in a year, but a touch below the consensus forecast of 4.5 percent. The release comes after data earlier in the week showed consumer prices and producer output prices came in above expectations in May, with the CPI rising above the Bank of England's 2 percent target."
  7. The only truthful answer anyone could give to this is maybe. Chart patterns are always obvious after the event has taken place. If prices dip again in the second half of the year the 'triple top' will be evident if not well it will be called something else. I think there are so many fundamentals at play in the housing market it is nearly impossible to tell when it will correct/crash (but am hoping for sooner rather than later ).
  8. Been doing the maths recently about buying myself a place so probably feeling a bit less than Buddhist calm. It came from what Cupidstunt said yesterday: For all you other renting FTBs who've been priced out of the buying a house let's all 'not look after' our houses. I'm going to start smoking (heavily) and maybe go down to the RSPCA and adopt one of their stray dogs...
  9. hmmm now theres a thought.... no really its definitely not ready yet!! My main challenge at the moment is how to cope with changes in market direction. There seems to be strong growth in a number of stock markets at the moment and while this continues it's easy going. One thing I am certain of is that lots of people will be making plenty of money this year and my aim is to be one of them!
  10. Thanks Smurf, this post sums up a lot of the thinking i've been doing over the last 3 months. From a complete novice I have done a lot of reading and am now developing my own trading system that is already showing postive results. I've considered buying an 'off the peg' system but until I have a good understanding of the financial markets I've decided to work things out for myself. When I get to the stage where I have proved I can be successful then I will look at other ways to increase my returns.
  11. I would use Finspreads or IG Index to back the Nikkei 225. This gives you signficant leverage compared to buying shares. I currently have a small bet on the Nikkei (because it is volatile) and a larger bet on the Swiss Merket Index which has also been making strong gains.
  12. Not sure if this has been posted yet but its an interesting article. http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schiff/nov182005.html Quote, "The bubble mentality The speculative mentality that has enveloped homebuyers has so clouded their judgments that they will pay any price for real estate, which is not only seen as a “can’t lose” investment, but thanks to incredible leverage, the equivalent of a “ticket to easy street.” With houses now regarded as sources of income rather then expenses, many people see no cost to homeownership. If a typical homebuyer in Southern California expects a $500,000 condo to appreciate by $100,000 per year, does he care if the $2,000 monthly mortgage payment consumes half of his salary? Of course not, as the anticipation of extracting an extra $100,000 per year in tax-free income means the house is expected to add to, rather than subtract from monthly income. In fact, with home ownership now perceived to be more lucrative than employment, is it any wonder that potential homebuyers will pay outrageous prices, and say or do anything to qualify for mortgages?" "The Bubble Economy Contributing to the housing mania is the artificial boost to consumer spending (80% U.S. GDP,) the bubble itself has produced. This acts as a self-perpetuating, “virtuous” circle where increased consumer spending drives housing prices higher, which in turn provides the impetus for still more consumer spending. Through the wealth effect, growing home equity both increases the willingness of homeowners to spend while reducing their perceived need to save." "Conclusion In the final analysis the temporary factors artificially elevating real estate prices will subside. Rising interest rates and inflation, and a resumption of savings as home equity fades, will combine to suppress consumer spending, leading to recession, job losses, and reduced demand for housing. The supply of unsold houses will continue to rise as higher interest rates, tighter lending standards, and higher down payments price more potential buyers out of the market. Without the expectation of routine cash-out refinancing, homebuyers will no longer be willing to devote staggering percentages of their incomes to mortgage payments. In addition, the expectation of lower prices will bring more sellers to the market, just as buyers are backing away."
  13. I am also a FTB thinking about entering the market. I have set myself a few deadlines in the past to begin looking at property but these have been and gone I am currently looking at renting a flat in an area closer to where I work. Not particuarly looking forward to renting (becauses of new landlord etc) but I am taking a longer timeframe and have an aversion to paying way over the odds for second class products. I am planning a minimum of 6 more months renting and then taking a decision based on where I see the market going at that time. My own view is that I expect prices to go down but I try not to obsess about it because, due in no small part to this site, I am currently engaged in a process of deepening my knowledge of other forms of investments. I have become steadily more bearish on house prices over the last 6 months and looking at the global economy and the overvalued UK housing market I honestly am starting to wonder about some of these 'experts' and their opinions about the state of the housing market. The 'experts' view all seems to come down to their reading of the 'fundamentals' of the market, (low IRs, high levels of enemployment etc). Surely these people are aware of how world events could very quickly impact on their rosy view about the fundamentals and so I can only conclude that they do not take them into consideration because of their lack of ability to do so. In which case I feel it is possible that a lot of people may find themselves in a very difficult position on the advice of these people. Many economists, who one would assume do have an understanding of the issues involved, are firmly convinced that a signficant correction in prices will take place not just in this county but in many others to.
  14. Hi all, Inspired by the good doctor i've decided to have a look at the Hometrack prices in Merton - my area of choice. Apr-04 219300 Jun-04 220100 Jul-05 217000 Aug-04 213500 Sep-04 216200 Oct-04 213400 Nov-04 210800 Dec-04 207600 Jan-05 207600 Feb-05 207200 Mar-05 207200 Apr-05 207600 May-05 207400 Jun-05 207400 Jul-05 207400 Prices seem remarkably steady for 2005 so far... July YOY price fall is 4%. Would be very interested if anyone has any other thoughts/anecodotes about this area. Cheers Padawan
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