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House Price Crash Forum

Pheno

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About Pheno

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  1. When I bought a house on behalf of my parents in 1999, the yield was 13%, so yields have gone down a lot.
  2. Thanks for the reply FTBvish. So basically there is a gap between the buy and sell price because the dealer takes a cut? It's quite a large gap - it seems I lost about 1.5% just buy buying some shares! I actually am quite frustrated with the FAQ, it doesn't seem to tell me what I want to know.
  3. Hi all, I'm playing around with squaregain trying to learn how to use it, and there's one thing I don't understand and can't find explained anywhere clearly! When I go to buy shares (after the end of the day's trading), it displays two prices: Bid Price p 1,746 Offer Price p 1,796 I don't understand what's the difference between these, and I can't see how these in any way relate to the current figures for that share, which are: Bid 1779.00 © Offer 1779.00 © Last Trade 1,779.00 Open 1,785.00 High 1,785.00 Low 1,769.00 Close 1779.00 05/04 I know there are quite a few people who use squaregain on this board, can anyone help me out here?
  4. According to this page on their website they do a MSCI japan fund. Won't that do a similar job to a nikkei tracker or am I missing something?
  5. You may only glance over the site, but you've obviously got the jist of it
  6. IPOD: I wondered when you'd start getting nasty and it didn't take long! As they say on Dragon's Den - I'm out
  7. There doesn't seem point in me arguing against this, since it supports my argument heh. The nominal interest rate is VASTLY lower now than it was in 1990, by your logic making houses vastly more affordable in 2006. Since long term expected income growth and economic growth are the same now as they were in 1990, they are irrelevant. Real interest rate internalises inflation which is why I used it. The whole point is you'd have had to devote 70% of your post-tax income to afford an equivalent hovel in 1990. It's just that back then the purchase price was lower.
  8. I'm not sure what you mean? I'm a first time buyer, and whether I can afford a certain house depends on whether I can afford the monthly repayments on the mortgage, which in turn depends directly on the real interest rate.
  9. Point taken, but 1) 25% still isn't very high 2) My suspicion is that the majority of that 25% are people who've used a sold house to pay for the new house and so aren't relevant to discussions regarding affordability. That's a 100% difference! Definitely world shaking for a lot of people who's outgoings only just cover their earnings every month. That was the point of my post. The important measure of affordability relates to people's ability to make their loan repayments every month. This is the one which will determine whether we have a house price crash or not.
  10. The problem is, since hardly anybody buys a house outright, the real measure of affordability is not the absolute value of the house, but rather the cost of servicing the debt. So it isn't the price/earnings ratio that is important, but rather the repayment costs/earnings ratio. Due to extremely low real interest rates, the current affordability of housing is actually still quite low - lower than it was in 1989. This is why there hasn't been a crash.
  11. 5 Year chart: http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDGBP=X&t=5y
  12. Interest payed on a mortgage is also "money down the drain". The real question is whether buying results in more "money down the drain" than renting. This depends on about a dozen variables, two of the most important of which are: 1) How long you stay in the house before moving 2) Whether the house increases or decreases in value
  13. I put all my equity into japan a couple of months ago so I'm very happy I think it's only going to keep going up too. Japan's been in an unnatural slump for 15 years now and I think it's finally kicked itself out of it. There's even talk of them raising interest rates!
  14. I saw Rachel Elnaugh in a service station in Cornwall at the weekend.
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