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Everything posted by Jimmy_James

  1. Good to see Killer Bunny on top of his facts as usual - and helpfully telling others they are wrong. This man never falters.
  2. No one commenting on this thread since October last year - is this a sign that posters have given up? In the upper part of the market (BS8 BS4), prices are now above what they were in 2007. Stuff that was on at around £500k during the trough in 2012/13 is now in the upper £700k mark. A extra £200k + is a big wadge in just two years. Things also seem to be shifting (based on a not very scientific browsing of Rightmove) although not too sure how quick. All a bit depressing for the waiter. This part of market is obviously being impacted on by London - where relocation of London money can set way above normal market prices I guess this must be filtering through to the rest of the Bristol market and the pick up of the investment side must have changed the dynamic in the BTL hunting grounds south of the river. In short, nothing looks even close to fair value. Suspect nothing will until the London market turns. This fair?
  3. I'd agree with Eddie George, unless you absolutely need to be in Bath, then the price premium for not particularly amazing property isn't worth it IMHO. I'd look at places with a small commute by train - or do what a lot of my mates have done and move to Frome. We moved to Bristol and don't regret it for a moment, much better value, much more going on, many more firms to work for and many more interesting people. Also a lot of young professionals moving in and sprogging, so school standards are going up. Perhaps it's because I grew up there, but I find Bath incredibly dull and unfriendly - the London money is turning it into a suburb for the boringly wealthy, and it is now the destination of choice for aspiring brummies wearing barbour jackets and driving range rover vogues. Whatever you do, it might be worth waiting till the year after the election and see how the land lies then.
  4. Letting Councils borrow more against a sensible ratio of their future housing income is pretty sensible - borrowing caps are absurdly tight at the moment, it would mean government investment in something that is useful (unlike HTB), the Germans do it to no great harm and it has the support of people you'd normally place firmly on the right (Westminster Council, Martin Wolf, Paul Cheshire at the LSE) The big change flagged by this article are urban extensions (meaning addressing greenbelt) and taking on landowners over land prices and control.
  5. Haven't posted for a while. Checking Rightmove we now seem to have a bit of a supply surge in parts of North Bristol, but not massive, and most of it has been on the market before in the past couple of years. On the anecdotal side, in 2012 we had some private discussions with people who were interested in selling (letters through doors). They were looking at £425k - £450k. That property has now just been listed with an agent for £600k... Luckily we bought elsewhere for a better property for a lower price. Now is definitely not a good time to buy - in 2012 a sense of stagnation had set in, so discussions around semi sensible prices were just about possible if you found the right seller and didn't go through an agent. Now, post HTB and the current London boom, sentiment among sellers and agents is simply delusional. Best to sit out until post 2015.
  6. Tony Blair would have been proud of this post - both ahistorical and analytically conflating different issues to make something very specific appear inevitable. London is multi-cultural (and the better for it), primarily because of the need for cheap labour in the post WWII period from countries either still part of the British Empire (Jamaica, Trinidad) or very recently gaining their independence (Pakistan). This was otherwise in a period of very tightly controlled global labour and financial flows. To pretend that this means "globalisation" is wrong. To also pretend that therefore this means that the wealthy global elite (a term that is also pretty vague) and move themselves and money here at will is wrong under a catch all "globalisation" is equally wrong. There are plenty of choices as to how countries control their borders, capital markets and property sectors - there is nothing inevitable about corrupt Russians and their fellow travellers screwing over the London housing market. We just happen to be going down the road where we are empowering the corrupt elites of the world and their cheerleaders in the UK high end Estate Agents.
  7. So allowing the state to strictly ration land supply and imprison people who build on their own private property without state consent is 'capitalist'??? How can someone who cr*ps on about Hayek every other breath, think this is okay? #Bringbackintelligence more like
  8. A definite mini bounce / boom in north Bristol - asking prices jumping up a chunk whilst not much new supply (yet). For example, this place in hotwells / Clifton was on the market for months in 2008 for approximately £525k, before being taken off without a sale. It has now sold relatively quickly for approximately £580 - £590k. Whether it is London money (where anything in Bristol looks cheap by comparison), help to buy fears of prices taking off or just a capitulation from buyers, difficult to say.
  9. Oh dear, this is a bit depressing. April Bristol Land Registry data now out, and we're back into year on year positive after a big monthly rise: National MoM: -0.3% YoY: -1.0% Average Price: £160,417 South West MoM: +2.0% YoY: +0.5% Average Price: £174,261 Bristol MoM: +1.5% YoY: +0.7% Average Price: £169,584 Last month was also revised up by a very healthy £800, so can't blame it on revisions. Total MoM price rise not including revisions over £3000! Transaction levels still pitiful. If any consolation, the market seems to have turned on the ground in local patch - with a lot of people now lowering asking prices and not much selling.
  10. Agree, riotously mental. Perhaps not as mental as this though - £800k for a not that spectacular 4 bed terraced house, a couple of doors down from the rehab centre: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-33831661.html;jsessionid=014E9B03499F4F5D73724C615863D4C6?premiumA=true These were selling for a shade over £500k in 2007 IIRC I can't believe more estate agents aren't going to the wall with this pricing and the low level of turnover
  11. March LR City of Bristol data now out: National MoM: -0.6% YoY: -0.6% Average Price: £160,372 South West MoM: -1.0% YoY: -0.7% Average Price: £170,261 Bristol MoM: +0.3% YoY: -1.5% Average Price: £166,335 Third month in a row of positive MoMs for Bristol (although with some dodgy revisions), although this month's not as large as last. Can't blame it on dodgy revisions this month though, as last months average price was revised up from £165,360 to £165,856, meaning this months rise would have been bigger without. Means headline falls slowing down since November 2011 (for the time being). Latest transaction levels for Jan pitifully low, but slightly higher than 2011, 2010 and 2009. You can do your own Bristol specific analysis here: http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/public/house-prices-and-sales/search-the-index
  12. Blimey, breaching Fremantle Square - a key defensive line falls! And were those the flats in the tower block? Bit out of order for rioters to start targetting social housing flats.. Have got a mate who lives in Montpelier who says that the vibe has got much worse over the past couple of years - the Stokes Croft reputation has attracted a lot of new wasters, a victim of its own boho success. If a place is going to crumble first it will be Montpelier - the Belgium to Kingsdown's France. Have seen a few more windows being broken on Picton Street of late and an increase in rogue cider drinkers. However people who want to live in Montpelier expect it to be rough round the edges, people in Kingsdown (or with £700k to spend on a house) are going to be a little more nervous of members of the underclass throwing up outside their Georgian front door (although perhaps it is an extra mark of 1790 authenticity?). The glut is interesting (about 6 now on in Somerset Street and Kingsdown Parade at the +£600k mark - above 2007 prices I think). Strongly suspect these are vendors who have been holding out since 2008 and now think the time is now here to get the price they always deserved. Some have been on the market on and off as either to rent or sale since 08. The glut is not just a Kingsdown and Montpelier thing - Clifton has just seen a big surge of new properties. All three areas are seeing agents whack an extra big dollup on the asking price. Not too sure how the longest period of economic contraction since the 1930s justifies an extra £150k tho'.
  13. Sounds fun. Do you know what happened? Incidently, a house right next to the Hare is currently up for sale for 650k, after they tried (and failed) to sell it for 690k two years ago: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-37249742.html On the Somerset Street tip, a friend who lives (renting) there said that last year a bunch of Somali girls on their walk back from school kicked in the front door of a house after getting into an argument with the owner. Just a few doors down from someone trying to sell a house for over £800k. Clifton prices, but not Clifton behaviour.
  14. Know what you mean. Kingsdown has got far far ahead of itself in terms of pricing - places there are now as, and sometimes more, expensive than Clifton. It has some nice housing stock there, but it's still on the edge of some touch and go areas. I like it, but would you pay 3/4 of a million to live within a stones throw of a crack den? Kingsdown and Montpellier will be interesting case studies for the durability of post boom gentrification, particularly if Stokie gets more sketchy and the riots become more regular. Will be interesting to see if the middle class start to get worried by social tensions again.
  15. Feb LR Bristol figures now out. National MoM: +0.1% YoY: -0.6% Average Price: £161,588 South West MoM: +0.1% YoY: +0.1% Average Price: £172,659 Bristol MoM: +0.2% YoY: -2.2% Average Price: £165,360 Although this positive figure is entirely based upon downwards revisions to last months figures. Last months figure was £165,510 (£150 higher than this months), but this has been revised down to £164,981 - an actual fall of £529 or -0.3%!. Cheeky flippin monkeys.
  16. Hi all, Thought you might be interested that several MPs from Devon and Cornwall have signed a secret letter seeking to water down planning reforms. This includes several requests that would push up land prices, force more development into towns and essentially preserve ALL surrounding countryside - including ugly scrub - pretty much forever. You can see who has signed here: http://andrewlainton.wordpress.com/2012/03/15/telegraph-full-text-of-zac-goldsmith45-mp-letter-on-nppf/ Why not ask them why they've allied himself with Rich Tory landowners in the South East when south west house prices are so high? Many thanks Matt
  17. Hi all, Sorry, a South West poster come over here! Thought you might be interested that the Cambridge MP, Julian Huppard, has signed a secret letter seeking to water down planning reforms. This includes several requests that would push up land prices, force more development into the city centre and essentially preserve ALL surrounding countryside - including ugly scrub and sugar fields - pretty much forever. You can see he signed here: http://andrewlainton.wordpress.com/2012/03/15/telegraph-full-text-of-zac-goldsmith45-mp-letter-on-nppf/ Why not ask him why he's allied himself with Rich Tory landowners in the South East when Cambridge house prices are so high? Many thanks Matt
  18. A private letter from MPs to Ministers seeking to achieve last minute weakening of planning reform has just been leaked http://andrewlainton.wordpress.com/2012/03/15/telegraph-full-text-of-zac-goldsmith45-mp-letter-on-nppf/ It understandably is chock full of rich NIMBY Tories from the SE Shires (Zac Goldsmith, Nicholas Soames) But unbelievably it also includes several Lib Dem MPs in areas where there are severe housing affordability problems: most notably Cambridge (Julian Huppard), Cornwall (Andrew George and Stephen Gilbert) and Devon (Adrian Saunders & Annette Brook). If you live in these areas, or spot your MP on this list, can you get in touch with them and ask them what they are doing? Cheers JJ
  19. PricedOut in the Financial Times today sticking the boot in: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/38d19df8-6c24-11e1-b00f-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ov4ZhiWQ MOD EDIT - PART OF QUOTE REMOVED - WE ARE ONLY ALLOWED A SHORT SENTENCE FROM FT ARTICLES. PLEASE DO NOT COPY AND PASTE MORE THAN THAT. Happy with that Killer Bunny, or should we still keep our stupid mouths shut?
  20. In answer to your question, no. See: http://www.pricedout.org.uk/download/fsa_consultation_response.pdf Do you have any examples of trying to influence government regulation of lending policy you'd like to share? (*posts on HPC do not count*)
  21. I help out PricedOut occaisionally, and wish that people on HPC would cut us some slack. It would help if people realised that there is a difference between a) what the media thinks and what PricedOut says. In this case the Mail led on the imbalance of lending story - and they have a view that high deposits are bad for first time buyers PricedOut has done substantial work both arguing for tighter mortgage lending (read their submission to the FSA on this) and more taxation of Buy-to-Let (read their submission to the Treasury on BTL financing). At least we are doing something, rather than moaning on an internet forum, so please give us a break
  22. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2113132/Majority-new-lending-going-buy-let-landlords.html And http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2112968/How-buy-let-boom-transformed-mortgage-market-younger-generation-buyers.html Sample quote: Big ding dong in the comments sections of both
  23. http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/poll/2012/mar/05/interest-rates-mortgage-rates If you fancy clicking Nice to see a quote from PricedOut:
  24. Is that time of the month again. Land Reg figures for Bristol for January now out. Below with comparisons: National: MoM: +1.1% YoY: -1.0% Ave price: £161,545 South West MoM: +1.6% YoY: -0.6% Ave Price: £173,090 Bristol MoM: +0.2% YoY: -3.4% Ave Price: £165,510 Small national blip happening, driven by London and happening in the SE & SW. Bristol performing worse than regional and national, but having a small move upwards. Although Land Registry have revised down last month's -0.1% fall to a -0.2% fall, so this months rise would have been less than +0.1% if this adjustment hadn't happened. Volumes remain low (in 400 to 500 monthly band this year up till latest availabile - Nov - compared to pre crunch levels of 700-1000 per month)
  25. In the interests of fairness, the LR have revised November's Bristol fall slightly upwards - it was originally -0.5%, it is now -0.4% Volumes remaining very low
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