Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Toto deVeer

Members
  • Posts

    1,897
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by Toto deVeer

  1. I totally agree and nearly added in some similar comments myself. There are very respected market technicians of many different variants that have had 25 year plus careers that have left the markets for good during in this period of manipulation because it no longer functions in a way they can read. I am with Pretcher on the bigger wave picture but do not think the more detailed wave analysis will serve any better than any of the other failed methods.

    I continue to maintain they are aiming for a managed collapse spread out over as long a period as possible. I do not think they will take us to hyperinflation or stand back and allow the full deflationary forces to wreak their havoc. While they still have control (which they clearly have atm) I believe we will have waves of inflationary periods and deflationary periods in the hope that during these phases the imbalances can work their way out of the system.

    I believe we will start another deflationary phase near Christmas (when most people will be distracted anyway). I have not shorted this market yet but will when ftse reaches 5600

    I don't think that Prechter is telling people to short the market now. He realizes that the bull move could have further upside, it's more that he's telling people to get out, and wait on the sidelines, in dollars (or gold). When the time is right (like last March, when he picked the bottom), he'll recommend shorting the market. This is an entirely reasonable approach, in my view.

    There have been two volcanic moves in the /DX over the last 4 weeks. Each time it jumped from 75/76 to around 82 in minutes, only to fall back as quickly. I think that when the /DX does move, it's going to be more violent than last October. It could be triggered by a Yen or Sterling crisis of some sort.

  2. IMO, you're overestimating the Murdoch/Microsoft dimension. The world has changed too much for the former to do well, but Microsoft may get some halo effect from Murdoch coming to their search engine. They will sideline themselves by closing the door to Google - the press used to be the gateway to the news and now search engines and community websites are. Google happens to be the best of the former and Murdoch would be better off down sizing and concentrating on the areas which are harder for the independent news/blogosphere to compete against. If not, when MS are finished benefiting from the media attention of Murdoch, they will drop the deal and Murdoch will have been displaced from Google and the MS income stream will have dried up.

    Re pricing, that is an interesting point, but how are they going to ban trading? Are they going to stop eBay sellers offering gold? Are they going to stop other sites monitoring the sale prices? Are they going to prevent BullionVault, GoldMoney etc from trading PMs and forming their own spot price? They would have to go beyond draconian to prevent the trading of PMs and then many people will be wondering what sort of "free world" we live in when we can't buy a lump of metal easily.

    As I said above, the only way they can stop this and get away with it is staging a take down of the Internet, in the name of something believable for the masses. Would we buy it here? Would the increasing number of others waking up to the situation accept it? As others have said though, taking the Internet down will cause all sorts of economic and social problems, so I can't see them doing that either.

    The purpose of the Murdoch/Microsoft join is just to weaken Google. I doubt that either party really expects to make any money or gain any traction, at least initially. They simply are applying a strategy to weaken a behemoth. I have first hand experience of this strategy, and it works. I've seen businesses driven to the brink of bankruptcy by much smaller competitors using this technique.

    The G20 has the power to shut down all legal gold trade anytime they want. Let's remember that BullionVault, GoldMoney etc didn't exist until the governments said they could, and their activities could be banned again. Ebay would not violate government rules either.

    There will be some form of trade, but it would be a black market, would be illiquid, and difficult to price. I just don't see any real alternative to fiat; it's just the form of it that will change, will it be elastic or inelastic, here is the question. Can the world afford a non-elastic fiat currency? I think that China and India would be against it; elastic currencies, economic growth and wars go hand-in-hand.

  3. We seem to be entering a phase which is rather like an information war. The government and the MSM are trying to keep control, but the harder they grip, the more their influence slips away. In a war of attrition, the Internet is going to win, unless the governments some how manage to choke it off (engineered crash, terrorist threat or some such nonsense). With that considered, do you think they will be able to get away with banning gold, silver and such?

    There is some truth to this, but if history is any guide, the golden age of internet freedom is past. The elite business establishment is not going to idly stand by and watch the internet destroy their empires. Another war is breaking out all right, but on the internet it will be a war of information control. This is going to happen, with or without government involvement, and will probably be driven by huge corporate interests.

    With the team of Murdoch/Microsoft entering the arena against Google, it is only a matter of time before Google's cash flow takes a hit. When this happens, Google will have to rationalize their loss making enterprises such as YouTube. There's going to be a lot of fragmentation, and a lot of change. It's going to get a lot tougher for the little guy in the coming years. Darwin's theories proved yet again, in America.

    I still contend that the G20 governments do not need to confiscate gold or silver; they can just ban and close all official markets so that it becomes impossible for individuals to value it easily, and then use it only for central bank purposes. There will still be black market activity but difficulties in valuing them will render widespread trading of PM's useless for the vast majority of people.

  4. The money system has already collapsed.

    But governments haven't, and they are all powerful. Although the dollar essentially has no value, and this means the entire fiat system as well, governments will not permit any alternative means of exchange. This is why gold will not be allowed to take it's historical role, unless the entire world sinks into complete anarchy.

    During the great depression, over 50% of the countries of the world defaulted on their national debt, but even this did not destroy the fiat system. It came back stronger and more powerful than ever.

  5. Montevideo Uruguay is supposed to be excellent, low cost, very European and easy going. On the South Atlantic, temperate, sandwiched between Brazil and Argentina. Go on a holiday there and see...

    I'd stay away from Europe myself, but if you must I agree that Italy would be nice. Especially the north.

    If you want a stable place in Asia and have the money, Singapore is a good choice.

    Although they are wonderful locations, personally I'd stay away from Australia or New Zealand; I think they are going to find themselves in a cleft stick eventually with regards to China, and, short of a world war, they will become another colony. Chinese have built a new nuclear submarine base in Hainan and are building another Naval Base in Sri Lanka. In fact, the entire sub-continent region and SE Asia is a powder Keg. Singapore should be Ok though, because they are pretty shrewd in these ways.

  6. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/6423720/The-headlong-rush-into-the-red-exposes-the-Citys-yellow-streak.html

    But I thought our actions where different to Zimbabwe they weren't an advanced economy printing money.... :ph34r:

    Re-introduction of Glass Stegal will not solve anything. Glass Stegal applied to US banks, not to offshore to Ponzi havens like the City.

    Money always flows to where it is least regulated. This is why, in the late '90s, after the introduction of the Euro, the US banking giants started to fall behind their European competitors. There was no equivalent of Glass Stegal in Europe, and they could no longer compete. They then lobbied, for good or bad, to remove Glass Stegal to put them on an even footing with international competitors. You could say that this whole crisis was sparked by the introduction of the Euro to banks with inadequate regulation, although you will never hear this said. I am convinced that, had this never happened, Glass Stegal would still be in place.

    In reality Europe should have introduced something like Glass Stegal. Even today, the banks in Europe are still leveraged far more than their US counterparts. But you never hear about this secret.

    The world is going to be in for a big shock. As bad as the US situation is, it is still more transparent than any other market in the world, and this has led to negative dollar sentiment. In Europe (including the UK) there is almost no transparency and the banks are in a more tenuous position. This will reveal itself when the tide next goes out.

  7. This is a part of the on-going process of making the Yuan a convertible currency. But it is still some years away. Operating an international currency is like a high-intensity fire fight 24/7, and China just does not yet have the financial infrastructure to cut loose from other currencies yet (the might cut loose from the dollar sooner if there is another, stronger alternative though).

    Max Keiser claims that, in the more distant future, historians will look back on the past year and see it as the beginning of WW3, but it will have started as a currency war. I think that he is right. This does look like the beginnings of a currency war.

  8. Thnx for the reply. like many i really dont know what to do nowadays. Everything seems to be good one minute and rubbish the next. one minute cash is king, then its not. same with equities and bubbles.I dont know much about the way hsbc is organised, but i was considering a couple of funds covered in the world selection. commodities and emerging markets in particular. they are offering reduced initial rates and a 5 % bond for a year for a similar amount. A lot of advice on here is to buy commodities, and while there may be a bubble now, it might be ok over some years. i am trying to protect some wealth if tshtf. Personally i would prefer to see out my retirement in cash without a care, but the mess has created different woes for many. as for currencies, it dosnt seem possible to keep switching large amounts of cash around. a bit like gambling with large charges to go with it. Do you think the boat has gone with gold. Seems too late for anything now.

    In the Middle East I met a number of investors who were badly burned by gold during the early 1980's. And gold proved to be a terrible investment for some 20 years after. It is a high beta item and has ranged between $600 and $1100 in the last 14 months or so.

    But the present activity in gold is the continuation of a 5 or 6 year trend where gold has made steady and consistent gains. So it seems to be in a more stable position, and compared to the 1980 price it is still well below it's historical peak in real terms (something like just 40% of the 1980 price in real terms). The main risk that I see to gold is the possibility of a strong dollar squeeze like last October. This will be unlikely however unless there is some sort of a major dislocation. So barring that I think that it is pretty safe for the moment but that is my opinion, you have to decide for yourself. I'm not an investment advisor.

    In my view, gold is just one more part of an overall strategy that can help to preserve the purchasing power of your liquid asset position while you are between positions in 'stuff', but it is not the complete solution on its own. And there may be tax implications so it is best to consult someone about it.

    I know what you mean about investing at the present; this is the most difficult environment in my lifetime. Perhaps in history.

    With goldmoney.com they guarantee that physical gold/silver/platinum are held in vaults in London or Zurich, and you can take physical delivery on request. This is a bit of a ruse however because the smallest amount is a bar which means you would need an account in multiples of roughly $500,000 for each bar delivered. Nonetheless it is safer that buying an ETF, from what I can gather. Maybe there are some goldbug experts lurking here who can correct me on this. You will get the London market price as well, as compared to gold coins that carry a premium for purchase. You can manage your account on-line, buy by the gram; and swap in and out of several currencies. From what I can tell, goldmoney.com is part owned by a Canadian gold mining company.

    Again, I have no account there I am just in the process of investigating alternatives. I don't really want to pay the premium for gold coins and I don't trust ETF's. I'm also a little bit leery of funds that require me to tie up my cash for a significant amount of time.

  9. Had a walk along the High Street last night and, of course, found myself looking in the agents' windows. I find myself asking ... what on earth is going on?

    • Most of the properties have Sale Agreed on them
    • Virtually all the ones that have sold are 250k plus - the 3 bed semis from 275k up to 4/5 bed detached at 600k +
    • The ones that are not sold are the typical FTB and BTL stuff - flats and 2 bed terraces

    I can't figure out what is going on. The belief used to be that the market was being sustained, that property chains were still being formed, by BTL investors taking the place of First Time Buyers at the bottom of chains.

    Now it looks like properties that would normally be second and third in chains don't need anything at the bottom. I know there has been a spate of people buying property with cash, rather than leaving the money in the bank earning very little interest, but it seems to me that the market is functioning pretty well without First Time Buyers or BTL investors.

    The question is ... how much cash is sloshing around for this to carry on? Can it carry on for a year? For two? More?

    The thing is ... if it goes on for say a year ... and everyone becomes convinced the 'correction' is well and truly over, and the economy comes out of recession, the banks are going to start lending massive multiples at high LTVs again at interest rates that most people seem to think will never go up again.

    I'm beginning to despair. They are never going to let people get out of debt.

    Don't despair. Really. It isn't going to help. Volumes are small, and there is always going to be some element of the population, however small, with enough cash to invest in property, and with the likelyhood of increasing taxation, an investment in property will be one of the few places to avoid it. The government will do everything in their power to avoid taxing property, just as they always have.

    The overall problem looks like this. The national LTV that the banks hold is 106%. This means that the banking system is completely insolvent. Any other business in this situation would have to be wound up, or the Directors could be criminally prosecuted. It's called trading whilst insolvent, and it's illegal.

    So there is a three-prong strategy underway. (1) stop mark to market so that the true value of bank assets is hidden, (2) withhold property from the market to create a shortage of supply, and (3) print so much currency that you risk national default, to inflate the price of a lower volume of sales.

    Now the major threat to this strategy is time. For the LTV to return to normal is going to take years, perhaps 5 or more. And the value of real estate must rise during each of these years (the long term trend of property price increase is 2.9% y/y). If property value declines significantly again, then the game is over. It will just be too much to withstand.

    So behind this is the full might of that fascist organization called government. We shall see if it works.

    (BTW, I am surprised that the BNP allow themselves to be labelled Fascist, they should repeat the mantra that under the accepted definition of Fascist (the merging of government and corporate interests), it is actually a valid name for the current governments of the world, including the Labour government, not the BNP. Why else would an ex-Labour Prime Minister, Tony Blair, be earning millions as an 'advisor' to JP Morgan and Zurich Financial Services).

  10. Has anybody got any opinions on hsbc world selection, as a means of investing in emerging markets and comodities. Is it now a bit late because of a perceived equity bubble developing?

    I cannot speak about this specific plan, but be careful about many HSBC plans. They trade off capital rights. In other words, if everything goes to pieces and you need your money fast, you will only be able to access a small part of it.

    And HSBC is an international bank that can offer these types of programs that many others cannot, but my experience is that the HSBC banking system is really a collection of regional entitles that operate like separate companies (are firewalled), and my thinking is that if one of these regional operations goes under you will lose that part of your portfolio, even though your local bank is intact. This may be good or bad depending upon your perspective.

    I've had some problems sending money from one HSBC region to another, and I came to know that there was no difference between these two 'HSBC' entities and two completely different banks, in the way they operate. They were essentially two separate companies operating under the 'HSBC' brand franchise.

    For what it is worth, the first major development is that all currencies have ceased to become a store of wealth, and their 'commodification' (for lack of a better term) during the last 10 years, and particularly the last 2 years is alarming. The second trend is a complete departure from asset value and towards very short term trading and speculation makes investing in these markets very very difficult at the moment. The commodification of world currencies is linked to this trend. The difference between currency as a commodity and a 'real' commodity is that is currency has an unlimited supply, whereas 'real' commodities are limited in supply. This is why Jim Rodgers and Marc Faber like them.

    The second major development is that, for the upper 5% of the wealth bracket, asset values wisely purchased will continue to preserve and enhance their wealth, this includes prestigious central London property, etc. This very expensive 'stuff' is a very safe investment. However, 95% of us are locked out of this world. We just don't have enough chips to sit at the table. So for us, our 'stuff' is becoming a lot more of a gamble.

    Additionally, I am very bearish on China and India because I think they have just come to the party too late. By this I mean that their economic development has only been possible because the west was prepared to hock the future to buy their stuff. If this breaks down (as it is now) then they have nowhere to go. The ratio of wages to energy is so much lower in these countries than the west that, if left to their own devices there is not financial incentive to industrialize. And without western demand there is no incentive to manufacture. This is why I am so bearish long term. In the short term, China, for example is printing money at a rate that is 23 times higher than the US, and again the currency commodification may create the illusion of economic growth in the short term, and a bubble. If you want to play bubbles, that's fine, but just be sure you get out before everyone else rushes for the exit.

    The secret to any future investment strategy is going to be the ability to cycle in and out of currencies (short term) and into 'stuff' that has real and tangible value, as a store of wealth. I am not by any means a gold bug and I personally see it as a high beta investment but I am finally coming to the conclusion that the world is waking up to the fact that currencies are being trashed and no longer represent wealth. Check out goldmoney.com if you are interested. Disclosure: I have no connection with them but I am for the first time considering it quite seriously.

    Just something to think about.

  11. Impossible politically. The idea that some great figure is going to arise from the depths, beat back all the vested interests and bring light into the darkness of public finances is a pipe dream.

    The political class will just keep going full tilt boogie, printing and lying until total collapse. If any of them had that sort of backbone, vision and rhetorical ability we wouldn't be here in the first place.

    There Is No Churchill and Thatcher Was Never What She Claimed To Be.

    Well said. A politician who simply spoke the honest, unvarnished truth could win a lot of votes at the moment. None of them are willing to do so. They don't know how.

  12. Its not an easy question to answer because this is no average recession and the multiple causes which got us here are quite new, at least in this combination.

    You have to appreciate that on a global scale the planet has too many people competing with one-another in a now open marketplace. This means that wages will be forced down by an oversupply of labour. On the other-hand this puts stress on the environment and basic commodities, which will go the other way.

    The result is currently looking like evisceration.

    You are correct. The current situation is without precedent. I don't think it is predictable and anything is possible.

    In the end a complete collapse of the world system is still possible. This could be good thing, because it could lead to writing off all debt, national and individual, world-wide, and starting again.

  13. There have never been any deflationary recessions under a fiat money system

    Ever.

    The state is currently printing money all day every day.

    You work it out from there.

    If you define deflation as a y/y decline in CPI then of course there has. The early part of the Roosevelt years and the late part of the 1930's, both of which were not tied to the Gold standard, are two examples.

    Prior to that, from the US Treasury website: August 21, 1862 - Fractional Currency was issued for the first time. It was issued again in the mid 1860's and again in the late 1860's and the 'greenback' was introduced by Lincoln in the 1860's. There were also gold and silver coins in circulation. There was no gold standard. Later in the 1870's there was a limited circulation 'gold certificate' dollar issued (like Kennedy's 'silver certificate'), but not a gold standard.

    Rothbard has written that, from 1869 to 1879, prices declined -3.8% y/y whilst the money supply was increased about +3% y/y for the 10 year period. This can be considered deflation whilst not tied to a gold standard.

    This claim that there has never been deflation whilst using a fiat currency is sheer nonsense. A thorough historical investigation would likely turn up numerous examples around the world.

    And this applies to creditor nations and debtor nations. In fact, the most significant deflationary periods in US history were immediately preceded by large national debts; the civil war and the Roosevelt years.

    I won't mention Japan's recent deflationary decade.

  14. Everything seems to have ground to a halt... no more bad news... no more panic sales from M&S, no more worries about banks going bust... The bad news is disappearing by the day...

    The same dozen threads seem to dominate the first page in this forum - nothing new then?

    Is, dare I say it, the battle lost and the war in doubt?

    Things were getting out of hand over the summer, lots of bad news, especially political news.

    I think that there's been a lock down since then. I noticed in early September news really stopped flowing. CSPANJunkie's Youtube account was cancelled which contained thousands of videos documenting just how stupidly the US has government acted. This in total, when combined, probably represented 500 million views. CSPAN is public record. No copyright should apply. CSPAN's costs are paid paid by tax dollars and voluntary contributions. Not only were the old ones removed, but there have not been any new ones allowed either. Completely eliminated. Only cancelled due to a lock down. Had to be.

    In the US there have been numerous demonstrations with thousands to millions in size and none of the media covered it, except Fox. There are lots more demonstrations to come, and no news will be written on it. Obama's team are trying to shut down Fox as I write.

  15. Not surprised. Cameron is going to prove to be hopeless; he's a PR toff, who is just a popularity artist in the mould of Blair.

    Look back at the Prime Ministers or Presidents from the '80's and before. Whether you like them or not, these people and their parties had policies and principles. Not any more. Compare some of Reagan's stuff to Obama's. No comparison.

    It this a Bilderbeger plan? To dumb down democracy so that policies and principles no longer apply? So that the 'elected' are just vacant, pretty faces?

    I suspect that Cameron will be remembered as the man who took Britain into the Euro, and once that happens, whomever they make a Peer will become irrelevant.

  16. In the UK, it's all about the banks.

    Remember that the banking system is built upon housing assets. Presently the LTV is 106%! If house prices increase by 10% in one year this will still be 97%.

    It's going to take several years of high house price inflation to stabilize the banking system.

    From a policy perspective, this means:

    1. Withholding property from the market.

    2. Cessation of mark-to-market.

    3. Requiring high deposits.

    4. Increased taxation of non-housing assets (and cash).

    5. Expanding money supply, thus increasing price inflation.

    This is going to savage the middle and working class, and destroy the moral fabric of the country. But there is no other solution, as far as the government is concerned.

  17. Is the dollar doomed?

    The exponential function is explained well... bottom line the maths says we cannot go on piling on the debt, at least growing it faster than GDP.

    What value growing GDP with printed money, devaluing the currency?

    Premature soundings of the worst being over, echo the The Great Depression.

    Worth a read.

    The real news is over at Zero Hedge:

    "Why Did U.S. SDR Holdings Increase Five Fold In The Last Week Of August?"

    Tyler Durden: "This was an operation to reduce the dollar's value: pure and simple."

  18. Agreed might be the wrong term. Tolerating ight be better - perhaps experimenting....

    Question is - are they doing the SDR thing or not?

    This is the worrying part; and the implication that the IMF will take a much larger role. There is some evidence to support this speculation in that the representation within the IMF is likely to grow from the 8 to the 20. But this is a big step and will require an almost global governance structure. Maybe this is the price that the US has to pay to keep CB's buying Treasuries. This has implications for the WTO too as I understand that it's governance is the 8 as well; this would also have to be expanded. Might take a long time to proceed; although I noticed the Brown assigned a senior Whitehall staffer to the G20 full time last week.

    This is going to crush the UN's ambitions....their only funding hope now is an 'environmental' tax.

    I think that the IMF is most likely Gordon Brown's next destination....

  19. Don't know.

    I think likely, but the problem will be how to allocate drawing rights. Does everyone get equal theft opportunities or are they split per region?

    I just don't see the logic behind this; and I think that China, Japan, etc wouldn't like the plan to devalue the dollar.

    These are very bold statements and supported by very little fact; I mean, did this guy attend the G20 meeting? I just don't think that they've agreed on anything...

  20. Confessions of an Economic Hitman.

    That explains what economics can achieve...a pseudo-science that can be used as a tool to extend mercantile empires by sovereign debt servitude...these are the goals of the World Bank and IMF (and their members)....there is always an agenda behind the economic data and forecasts...

    Chaos theory implies determinism; ie that a butterfly flapping it's wings in North Africa can cause a hurricane in Florida. However; I would submit that in economics, it is impossible to 'reverse engineer' history, therefore is is impossible to use history to predict the future. Consequently we are left with randomness. Thus to comprehend the future is to understand the limits of what we don't know. We are, in fact, working with incomplete information.

    Thus I view Economics as an interesting form of thought experimentation, but nothing more valid, and I also view such things as climate change in the same way. For this reason I put no faith in climatology or economics predictions, certainly not enough faith to base national policy on it.

    This is not to say that one cannot follow sound principles when it comes to finance and money, but one does not have to be an economist to do so as much of it is common sense.

  21. This seems a bit strange to me.

    I mean, if it is this easy to get better than market prices why don't all the banks just package up their foreclosures, and sell them as syndicated investments? Isn't this how the property industry got into this mess? Something smells.

    I wonder if there isn't some sort of scam underway, you know, a bank subsidiary taking them off the books of the parent company, and agreeing a price indexed to future value?

    This way the entire asset portfolio of the bank is inflated, and there is no loss incurred. Financial engineering?

    hmmmm, I wonder....

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.