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Toto deVeer

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Posts posted by Toto deVeer

  1. They were happy to accept the Marshall plan aid and didn't do too badly out of it.

    Perhaps they would prefer to have no European markets left to sell to, and just write off the $700bn owed to them by Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland?

    Germany ought to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of a weaker Euro.

    Strange volks indeed.

    Yes but the sensible course of action is to establish some form of fiscal union across the EU, which still does not exist. Instead there is a wish to throw money at the problem, without trying to solve it.

    The Euro is going to be weaker in any case, but will help southern Europe a lot more than Germany.

    If I'm not mistaken, the Marshall plan also helped American multinationals expand into Europe too...so it wasn't entirely altruistic...

  2. Lib Dems playing off Tories and Labour? Tipping back towards the blues to draw out more from the reds?

    Seems the one policy written in stone for the Libs is electoral reform....PR. And this is the one item the Tories won't budge on. Labour will, and this is what is being negotiated.

  3. EU Politicians: "To save the Euro, we must print more of them...". Sheer arrogance.

    Some probing is going on, trying to find where the effective 'bottom' is in the Euro; the point where the CB's are going to intervene.

    After that, a probe of the GBP will begin.

    So have some patience, the GBP is next in line...

    My comments to EU politicians:

    You're like a group of sheep being watched by a hungry wolfpack, and you have decided (instead of building a wall for protection) you will increase your numbers to defend yourselves...

    Under this scenario, you may survive, provided you can outrun your brethren...

    Meanwhile, the hedgies and banksters must be salivating...the meal was just increased to a trillion dollars...

  4. Definitely something going on, but not sure about currency control.

    Last week I tried to pay an annual return at Companies House with an HSBC Mastercard (Corporate account).

    Netbanx wouldn't accept the payment. Reply: "Nothing wrong with your card sir, we just don't accept that type of card." Huh?

    I had to go directly to Companies House who called me back two days later and took my details directly.

    In another two days later I recieved an email that the payment had been processed.

    Something is going on; I know that there are a lot of restrictions on dollar amounts leaving the USA, and that Americans are being taxed 30% now on overseas purchases, including credit cards.

    Is this why the dollar is getting stronger? Are these taxes decreasing the dollars in circulation outside the USA? It this the reason for general CC problems?

  5. They would only do something like this when faced with something that appeared to them to be truly cataclysmic.

    Yup. End of Western civilization as we know it.

    But, the Icelandic people don't want it.

    Merkel's power is ebbing. The Germans don't want it.

    Brown's out, the Brits don't want it.

    G-Pap? Many Greeks would like to give him the Mussolini treatment.

    In the next 2-1/2 months Italy and Spain (forget Greece) will have to redeem almost 1 trillion Euros of debt.

    The Yanks don't want it either. So this is the last stand for the money printers. By the end of this year, the people will have spoken. Everywhere.

    That's when the fun really starts, if not sooner.

    Truly cataclysmic...

    (hmmm... does that word have Greek origins?)

  6. Do you all live in the USA?

    It is no wonder the US as a net importer and with the dollar so strong as the world's reserve currency is facing deflation.

    The last time I looked most of us live in the UK where we are/have-

    Importing nation

    Very weak currency

    Negative interest rates

    Quantative Easing (will return!)

    Importer of energy

    No government!

    The US can very well have deflation. I dont see it here at present, quite the opposite.

    Should the pound bounce heavily upwards v the dollar and euro then perhaps we will face deflation. At the moment no way.

    I subscribe to the Marc Faber view that the West will run negative interest rates for the next decade. He also says that the 'effect' of inflation could become far greater than the 70s as then they faced much higher interest rates (i.e. net effect between inflation and interest rates will be much higher this next decade than in the 70s).

    I like Faber. But where he's been very accurate on the markets, he's been premature on the currencies. Especially the dollar - same as Schiff.

    At some point interest rates will have to rise in order to defend Sterling. This is inevitable. I just don't think that anyone is looking at this risk. Rates cannot stay at 350 year lows indefinitely. Just can't happen.

    Rising interest rates will kick off deflation in the UK, no matter what is happening elsewhere.

    [Edit]: Just to say, I'm expecting a Euro around $.85, and Sterling around $1.00, before this is over, provided that the US does not have a total political implosion before then (which is a possibility).

  7. Russian protesters were demanding either a/ Article 31 of Constitution to become direct law (few hundreds of dissidents in Moscow) or b/ second-richest Russian governor to go (Mr Boost, Kaliningrad). Nothing to do with money printing.

    Kyrgyzstan does not have a common border with Afghanistan. Check with Google maps. The direct cause for the coup was govt troops firing at protesters and killing 200. Again, nothing to do with money printing.

    Some of these protests are economic, some related to immigration, some related to other factors.

    Never said it was related to money printing. The issue is general political upheaval. Underlying this is the economic situation. Times are starting to get hard; and for some, real hard.

    Kyrgyzstan is crucial to Afghanistan, because the US base there replaces the US base that was lost in Uzbekistan. Now the likelyhood is that the base in Kyrgyzstan will be lost too. This is vital for military operations in Afghanistan. OK, doesn't directly border Afghanistan, but it's pretty damned close.

  8. Ok l appreciate the idea of deflation where you treat shrinking credit as fungible money supply that is disappearing. oh and you have to also caveat that the government debt/credit bubble doesnt go to the man in the street so its not really inflation. (not something l agree with because it displaces money that should be taken out of circulation to meet that need, and thus is preventing deflationary forces by allowing money to be in mmore places than it should be = inflation).

    So ok, lets say leveraged assets and stocks n shit go down, again this isnt deflation. Tell me, as a stirling saver how do l enjoy this deflationary effect when the govt is quite happy to see my currency eat shit and lose value against just about everything. I dont count deflation as "well its cheaper if its made here and your competition is other mug stirling holders" because a. We don't make feckin anything. b. If we did someone with a much stronger currency will come along and outbid me. Unless of course stuff being entirely unavailable in this country at any reasonable price is some new form of deflation l havent heard of.

    Would be quite glad of a convincing reply cos so far this whole theroetical deflation thing is just making me furious. :angry:

    Really depends upon how deflation is defined. To me, deflation is just that money (currency) starts to get really scarce; very hard to come by.

    When Sterling falls (and it will) this will cause an increase in interest rates, just like Greece.

    This rise in interest rates is when deflation will really kick in. The value of just about everything will fall, and salaries will not increase, and may also fall. The UK may risk default.

    This is when Prechter's 'cash is king' statement will really become reality...

  9. Problem now is that the entire G20 ponzinomics strategy has been pushed to the outer limits of reality.

    Within the last month, protests/riots in France, Germany, Russia, Greece, Iceland across the USA, Turkey, Hong Kong, South Korea (too many to keep track of). And this is just for starters.

    A coup in Kyrgyzstan, bordering Afghanistan. Pakistan falling apart. Mexico is a failed state, with Mexicans streaming into America.

    The Pentagon/US military beginning to exert pressure in US politics. Watch this space.

    No way that the lid can be shut. Things can only get worse from here.

    The fun's just beginning, and it's going global...

  10. Prechter's the man.

    He's been right since the early 2000's, but things didn't go his way because no one could have predicted the sheer fraud and blatant crime coupled with ultra-extreme FED policy. His underlying thesis is about to be fully validated. I got caught in the same trap after the dotcom bubble collapsed.

    The last decade has witnessed a level of fraud that has not been seen since the 1720's, at every level of the financial system, world-wide. No one could have predicted that.

  11. I would hope LVT would be high on Clegg's list of demands when doing a deal with the Labservatives.

    No way.

    The only hope is to let Sterling drop, and get foreign investors to prop land prices.

    House price devaluation in external currency, not Sterling.

    No way this scenario can permit land tax.

    Sorry.

  12. I think you are mistaken in your thinking. The quote below (apologies for the lack of source) comes from 1980 after the gold spike!!

    The US Govt. is the largest holder of gold and the worlds biggest debtor they will do exactly what they did last time - let the price of gold rise to a point where its value matches all of its outstanding liabilities.

    Its the Asians who want cheap gold as they have paper they want to get rid of.

    Naahh. India already possesses about 16000 tonnes but it is privately held. Far more than the US. China (and India) want to put a floor on price as this is an important national resource for them.

    The advent of computers has rendered gold useless as far as trade is concerned. I'm not saying that the dollar is invincible, I'm saying that fiat is invincible. No government wants to return to the gold standard. They would lose their powers, no matter how much gold they possessed.

    Do you think that China and India and other developing nations want to return to trade designated in gold? Forget it. They would have to extend their development plans by at least 100 years.

    There are two realistic scenarios, as I see it; either the dollar survives but is internationalized (politically), or a basket of fiat emerges. Where does this leave gold? Perhaps a metal for jewellery? Of course the price will have to fall if this is the case.

    Do I think gold will collapse? Not likely. Probably a slow grind down as the world develops a more stable fiat system.

  13. central banks are buying because they are hedging against currency weakness / zirp / market instability etc

    what happened to gold during the depression?

    I don't agree. Gold is of no use for this purpose. China is now the world's largest miner of gold. India has the world's largest private ownership of gold, about twice the amount possessed by the USA. They each have a vested interest to see that the price is stable, but there just isn't enough gold to make a difference as far as national reserves are concerned. A 200 tonne purchase, as in India's case, is really tiny on a world CB scale.

  14. ?

    Long term players look to trade in the middle 60%. If you position your trades in the tail region, the probability (risk) will ensure that you won't keep you money very long.

    My bet is that CB's aren't going to let gold run up very much from here, even if speculative demand supports it. CB's don't want to buy in at too high a price, nor do they want to allow threats to the fiat system to develop, which is what will happen if gold gets out of control.

    Don't forget, if you look at world commerce, it's still government fiat 98%, gold 2%. Yet the 'bugs/media/industry/speculators bubble ramping continues. The end of fiat? It ain't gonna happen.

  15. I'm surprised I can't find a post about the falling gold price. Not everyone was bullish on gold were they?

    Since the rally in the $US at the end of last week, the peak gold price on Thu 3rd above $1220 has dropped by over 5% in 2 days, closing yesterday at $1142. Latest 'live' price I can find is £1155. Another popped bubble? Maybe.

    About 3 months ago I told a number of goldbugs that end of year effects tend to support higher gold and lower dollar, but I was soundly derided. A month ago I suggested moving from gold to dollars.

    It's difficult to know which is better in the longer term, as the future price path of both assets depend upon government actions. On a technical basis gold is still overbought and the dollar is still oversold.

    But tomorrow the Fed could announce an increase in interest rates or the G20 could fix the price of gold. Who knows? We live in interesting times.

  16. Or Russia? They seem to be in big trouble.

    My money is on trade tensions due to the Renmimbi devaluing with the dollar, but there are so many black swans lurking it could come from anywhere.

    Not nice to say, but China's economic model is to be a parasite of the USA. If the Remnimbi was really decoupled from the dollar, they would collapse. So I don't think this would be done by choice, but it is a possibility. A trigger that forces the Remnimbi revaluation, however, might be that the Chinese simply cannot continue to afford the purchase of vast sums of US dollar Treasuries. This could indirectly force a revaluation, and be a trigger.

  17. My recollection is that over the last few months he has strenuously advocated going long the dollar and shorting the stock market with a view to a retest the March lows. I may be wrong but I doubt it :).

    He has advocated long dollar, as a sidelines move, but not shorting the market. It's more of a sit and wait strategy. /DX was about 76 at the time. Since then it's bounced around within a 75-76 range.

    I think the trigger will come from Japan. They are sinking fast.

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