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House Price Crash Forum

Toto deVeer

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Everything posted by Toto deVeer

  1. Do you sincerely believe that the BBC will ever conclude that house prices will fall in Britain?
  2. Yes but the sensible course of action is to establish some form of fiscal union across the EU, which still does not exist. Instead there is a wish to throw money at the problem, without trying to solve it. The Euro is going to be weaker in any case, but will help southern Europe a lot more than Germany. If I'm not mistaken, the Marshall plan also helped American multinationals expand into Europe too...so it wasn't entirely altruistic...
  3. Seems the one policy written in stone for the Libs is electoral reform....PR. And this is the one item the Tories won't budge on. Labour will, and this is what is being negotiated.
  4. You forgot: If you're not with us, then you're against us
  5. Right now, Germany is not in bad shape (banks are another story). Why should they take on all this debt? Would you?
  6. Maybe this is Sarcozy's plan. French banks short the Euro. A French bank bailout using monies from other EU states?
  7. EU Politicians: "To save the Euro, we must print more of them...". Sheer arrogance. Some probing is going on, trying to find where the effective 'bottom' is in the Euro; the point where the CB's are going to intervene. After that, a probe of the GBP will begin. So have some patience, the GBP is next in line... My comments to EU politicians: You're like a group of sheep being watched by a hungry wolfpack, and you have decided (instead of building a wall for protection) you will increase your numbers to defend yourselves... Under this scenario, you may survive, provided you can outrun your brethren... Meanwhile, the hedgies and banksters must be salivating...the meal was just increased to a trillion dollars...
  8. Definitely something going on, but not sure about currency control. Last week I tried to pay an annual return at Companies House with an HSBC Mastercard (Corporate account). Netbanx wouldn't accept the payment. Reply: "Nothing wrong with your card sir, we just don't accept that type of card." Huh? I had to go directly to Companies House who called me back two days later and took my details directly. In another two days later I recieved an email that the payment had been processed. Something is going on; I know that there are a lot of restrictions on dollar amounts leaving the USA, and that Americans are being taxed 30% now on overseas purchases, including credit cards. Is this why the dollar is getting stronger? Are these taxes decreasing the dollars in circulation outside the USA? It this the reason for general CC problems?
  9. Look out for a more than 1 million strong protest in Washington consisting or ordinary middle class Americans in September of this year... The governments can print endlessly, but the people are not going to accept it, that's the real issue that is before us...
  10. Currency swaps with the Fed, to weaken the dollar. A war chest to ensure that bond redemption needs of the PIIGS can be met for the next 3 months. By mid-summer, watch currency controls and capital rights restrictions. To eliminate risk associated with bank runs. It's gonna get real ugly. Get your money out now, if you can...
  11. Yup. End of Western civilization as we know it. But, the Icelandic people don't want it. Merkel's power is ebbing. The Germans don't want it. Brown's out, the Brits don't want it. G-Pap? Many Greeks would like to give him the Mussolini treatment. In the next 2-1/2 months Italy and Spain (forget Greece) will have to redeem almost 1 trillion Euros of debt. The Yanks don't want it either. So this is the last stand for the money printers. By the end of this year, the people will have spoken. Everywhere. That's when the fun really starts, if not sooner. Truly cataclysmic... (hmmm... does that word have Greek origins?)
  12. '...slated to adopt far-reaching new powers for the Commission and its fellow bodies...' oh shit!
  13. I like Faber. But where he's been very accurate on the markets, he's been premature on the currencies. Especially the dollar - same as Schiff. At some point interest rates will have to rise in order to defend Sterling. This is inevitable. I just don't think that anyone is looking at this risk. Rates cannot stay at 350 year lows indefinitely. Just can't happen. Rising interest rates will kick off deflation in the UK, no matter what is happening elsewhere. [Edit]: Just to say, I'm expecting a Euro around $.85, and Sterling around $1.00, before this is over, provided that the US does not have a total political implosion before then (which is a possibility).
  14. Some of these protests are economic, some related to immigration, some related to other factors. Never said it was related to money printing. The issue is general political upheaval. Underlying this is the economic situation. Times are starting to get hard; and for some, real hard. Kyrgyzstan is crucial to Afghanistan, because the US base there replaces the US base that was lost in Uzbekistan. Now the likelyhood is that the base in Kyrgyzstan will be lost too. This is vital for military operations in Afghanistan. OK, doesn't directly border Afghanistan, but it's pretty damned close.
  15. Really depends upon how deflation is defined. To me, deflation is just that money (currency) starts to get really scarce; very hard to come by. When Sterling falls (and it will) this will cause an increase in interest rates, just like Greece. This rise in interest rates is when deflation will really kick in. The value of just about everything will fall, and salaries will not increase, and may also fall. The UK may risk default. This is when Prechter's 'cash is king' statement will really become reality...
  16. Problem now is that the entire G20 ponzinomics strategy has been pushed to the outer limits of reality. Within the last month, protests/riots in France, Germany, Russia, Greece, Iceland across the USA, Turkey, Hong Kong, South Korea (too many to keep track of). And this is just for starters. A coup in Kyrgyzstan, bordering Afghanistan. Pakistan falling apart. Mexico is a failed state, with Mexicans streaming into America. The Pentagon/US military beginning to exert pressure in US politics. Watch this space. No way that the lid can be shut. Things can only get worse from here. The fun's just beginning, and it's going global...
  17. Prechter's the man. He's been right since the early 2000's, but things didn't go his way because no one could have predicted the sheer fraud and blatant crime coupled with ultra-extreme FED policy. His underlying thesis is about to be fully validated. I got caught in the same trap after the dotcom bubble collapsed. The last decade has witnessed a level of fraud that has not been seen since the 1720's, at every level of the financial system, world-wide. No one could have predicted that.
  18. No way. The only hope is to let Sterling drop, and get foreign investors to prop land prices. House price devaluation in external currency, not Sterling. No way this scenario can permit land tax. Sorry.
  19. Naahh. India already possesses about 16000 tonnes but it is privately held. Far more than the US. China (and India) want to put a floor on price as this is an important national resource for them. The advent of computers has rendered gold useless as far as trade is concerned. I'm not saying that the dollar is invincible, I'm saying that fiat is invincible. No government wants to return to the gold standard. They would lose their powers, no matter how much gold they possessed. Do you think that China and India and other developing nations want to return to trade designated in gold? Forget it. They would have to extend their development plans by at least 100 years. There are two realistic scenarios, as I see it; either the dollar survives but is internationalized (politically), or a basket of fiat emerges. Where does this leave gold? Perhaps a metal for jewellery? Of course the price will have to fall if this is the case. Do I think gold will collapse? Not likely. Probably a slow grind down as the world develops a more stable fiat system.
  20. I don't agree. Gold is of no use for this purpose. China is now the world's largest miner of gold. India has the world's largest private ownership of gold, about twice the amount possessed by the USA. They each have a vested interest to see that the price is stable, but there just isn't enough gold to make a difference as far as national reserves are concerned. A 200 tonne purchase, as in India's case, is really tiny on a world CB scale.
  21. Long term players look to trade in the middle 60%. If you position your trades in the tail region, the probability (risk) will ensure that you won't keep you money very long. My bet is that CB's aren't going to let gold run up very much from here, even if speculative demand supports it. CB's don't want to buy in at too high a price, nor do they want to allow threats to the fiat system to develop, which is what will happen if gold gets out of control. Don't forget, if you look at world commerce, it's still government fiat 98%, gold 2%. Yet the 'bugs/media/industry/speculators bubble ramping continues. The end of fiat? It ain't gonna happen.
  22. About 3 months ago I told a number of goldbugs that end of year effects tend to support higher gold and lower dollar, but I was soundly derided. A month ago I suggested moving from gold to dollars. It's difficult to know which is better in the longer term, as the future price path of both assets depend upon government actions. On a technical basis gold is still overbought and the dollar is still oversold. But tomorrow the Fed could announce an increase in interest rates or the G20 could fix the price of gold. Who knows? We live in interesting times.
  23. For the period of September 08 to March 09, it looked like deleveraging of all debts with no end in sight. Since March there has been G20 co-ordinated QE and a raft of extend and pretend policies. This can only last so long. Then Kansas goes bye bye.
  24. Traditionally Dubai and especially Ras Al Khayma were the hideout and haven of Arabian Gulf Pirates. This is what brought the British Navy to the Gulf in the first place....the various Sheikhs in Bahrain and the Gulf Emirates needed protection...
  25. Not nice to say, but China's economic model is to be a parasite of the USA. If the Remnimbi was really decoupled from the dollar, they would collapse. So I don't think this would be done by choice, but it is a possibility. A trigger that forces the Remnimbi revaluation, however, might be that the Chinese simply cannot continue to afford the purchase of vast sums of US dollar Treasuries. This could indirectly force a revaluation, and be a trigger.
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