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Toto deVeer

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Posts posted by Toto deVeer

  1. All that will remain is raw materials and land rights as energy will probably be cheaper due to solar energy or nuclear fusion. With this, the robots can produce enough food for the humans and widgets will be close to the cost of the raw materials.

    If everyone has access to enough raw materials and land rights, then it will be perfect, and I can well imagine a communist style government voted in. However, I could still imagine an elite making off with more than their fair share of natural resources.

    This is an interesting point. I believe the US military already has 50%, and is to have 80% of the air fleet as semi-autonomous and autonomous unmanned drones in about 5 years. In ten years I have heard that they want the maintenance and supply systems to be robotic. The US Navy is doing something similar with the submarine fleet. These systems, like the UK's Taranis, will be programmed to identify their own targets - they will not need any external control.

    In this circumstance military power (and ultimate power) could be in the hands of a very few persons - those who have access to the buttons and controls. I find this prospect worrying.

  2. I've been saying for many years that only a currency RUN will lift rates and crash houses .

    Given our major three 'competitors' in fx terms are eur jpy and usd I don't think that will happen for a number of reasons (not yet)

    1) they are all equally as fookayed as us

    2) they are all printing and inflating away their debts

    3) in the case of the uk the last thing Greece Spain Portugal Ireland and therefore the eur need is lower export ability ( including invisible exports) from the uk

    4) the bulk of the uk liabilities actually belongs to banks who owe this externally ( net after assets) the Gbp they own would be pretty disastrous for many banks around the world and they couldn't really afford a run on Gbp

    5) all four currencies are trading in a range and have been since 2008. The Gbp is still slightly over it's 4 year average against the eur and last time we all thought it was eur turn to print and they did , now we have seen the jpy print again and the yen will devalue , the world expects the usd and Gbp to print next and soon, hence Gbp will weaken against eur until it reaches a level where the ecb gets uncomfortable and another print run of the eur will occur to help Greece and Spain .

    This game will continue ad infinitum until petrol costs £8 €10, $12 a litre and everyone with net monetary assets has been wiped out .

    It's the price we all pay for central banks not turning off the taps in the first place.

    Given the above post, which I agree with, is it the market or political pressure?

    The fx crosses can be stabilized provided that all central banks coordinate intervention - this has been the case since 2009. However the gloves have come off this year - lead by that Aso in Japan. This is the year when the currency wars (and perhaps other wars) will truly get underway. Mr. Market will return to supremacy once again.

  3. People in Zim avoid tax aggressively, they avoid paying as many bills as possible. BUT the place is buzzing everyone is doing something, was in harare last year and I was supprised how many people are working/getting by in the black economy. Lots of trucks and equipment being moved around very very busy

    System D is alive and prospering - about $10 trillion in size some estimate.

  4. Starbucks sucks. When I worked in New Orleans - there was a French creole breakfast bar that sold nothing but Coffee and Beignets. The coffee (and chicory) and hot milk was poured from pitchers, with unlimited top ups - and the beignets were hot from the oven - confectioners sugar would melt on them. Best coffee shop ever. Stopped there every morning on the way to work.

    8236207680_05706dd5ba_z.jpg

  5. I don't think thats right.

    I was under the impression that long term "fair" value for sterling was considered to be about 1.6. I have no clue how this number was arrived at.

    So in that respect it hasn't devalued at all and is trading pretty close to that value.

    Sterling vs. euro is a different issue.

    dollar-long.gif

    You are right. It's only depreciated by about 25%, not 30%.

  6. I've been saying for many years that only a currency RUN will lift rates and crash houses .

    Given our major three 'competitors' in fx terms are eur jpy and usd I don't think that will happen for a number of reasons (not yet)

    1) they are all equally as fookayed as us

    2) they are all printing and inflating away their debts

    3) in the case of the uk the last thing Greece Spain Portugal Ireland and therefore the eur need is lower export ability ( including invisible exports) from the uk

    4) the bulk of the uk liabilities actually belongs to banks who owe this externally ( net after assets) the Gbp they own would be pretty disastrous for many banks around the world and they couldn't really afford a run on Gbp

    5) all four currencies are trading in a range and have been since 2008. The Gbp is still slightly over it's 4 year average against the eur and last time we all thought it was eur turn to print and they did , now we have seen the jpy print again and the yen will devalue , the world expects the usd and Gbp to print next and soon, hence Gbp will weaken against eur until it reaches a level where the ecb gets uncomfortable and another print run of the eur will occur to help Greece and Spain .

    This game will continue ad infinitum until petrol costs £8 €10, $12 a litre and everyone with net monetary assets has been wiped out .

    It's the price we all pay for central banks not turning off the taps in the first place

    Sterling has already depreciated by about 30% against the dollar. Historically speaking, it could go another 30% or so at any time. Will that be enough to cause an interest rate rise? Anybody's guess.

  7. Cloward Pivin

    ...Cloward and Piven "proposed to create a crisis in the current welfare system – by exploiting the gap between welfare law and practice – that would ultimately bring about its collapse and replace it with a system of guaranteed annual income. They hoped to accomplish this end by informing the poor of their rights to welfare assistance, encouraging them to apply for benefits and, in effect, overloading an already overburdened bureaucracy."...

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