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House Price Crash Forum

Toto deVeer

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Posts posted by Toto deVeer

  1. I read it as "buy now and make money, house prices always go up".

    Yup. I think they are saying that investing in property 30 years ago would today have much better returns than would investing in a chicken that was slaughtered and plucked 30 years ago. I just hope they had the sense to freeze the chicken.

    Hindsight is always 20-20.

  2. Not sure that's true. http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2013/feb/07/rising-number-postgraduates-social-mobility

    Snip from article

    "While good careers were formerly open to those with only A-levels, the bulk were currently only accessible if you had a degree, the Sutton Trust said, something which might soon become the case for postgraduate qualifications."

    Report is here http://www.suttontrust.com/research/the-postgraduate-premium/

    As a father with children recently in the workforce and others coming up to working age there has been a sea change in attitudes towards University and work.

    For the first time in years, several children are proudly going into apprenticeships rather than University. Some of these children are from very well heeled, well educated families - Surgeons, for example.

    My own personal view is that education is still the key for those who have ambitions to better themselves in life. But it is rapidly becoming a playground for the rich.

    I read that there were 57,000 places unfilled during the last University uptake. You combine this with the fact that some of the existing students will drop out, and there will be dire consequences for the University system.

    I believe that London Metropolitan is unlikely to make it, and that there are 8 or 9 other Universities that are on the watch list. Also I read that major US universities (such as Stanford) are introducing low cost or free online courses and this has the UK university system rattled.

  3. I think we could see 8000 first as this 4 to 4.5 year consolidation has one more leg down IMO to complete a large wave C. Negative divergence in Nikkei RSI and positive divergence in Yen RSI so a big bounce looks like it's coming in the Yen along with new highs in the dollar as the markets go risk-off over the next few months.

    Especially if the Chinese decide to do more than just lock on to a Japanese destroyer.

  4. it's only sensible either. When I started my business I wanted 20k. Went to the bank with a plan (wish I hadn't bothered) and they said that looks good, we'll lend you the 20 grand but you have to guarantee it with your own money. I said, why not use my own money then and cut out the middle man ?

    In the end I just did consultancy until I built up a big enough cash pile to start buying kit.

    Business plans are useful for management purposes, but for a bank loan and a start up they are a waste of time - unless there are a number of investors and big bucks are involved.

  5. Small business lending doesn't work like this at all and hasn't for some time. Because of the very scam you identify.

    If you go to a bank and ask for money to start a business, they won't be so interested in your plan. What they will be interested in is whether you will personally guarantee the loan with your own assets, thus negating one of the significant points of being a limited company.

    The only way small business will take on debt in a falling economy is if this constraint is removed. As the banks would not do it, then the money would have to be backed by the taxpayer. Then we would be back to square one. So making more money available for start ups is the pushing on a piece of string scenario. You can't force debt on people if they are held liable for the consequences of default, and if you remove the consequences then people will just borrow as much as they can because they have nothing to lose by doing so, either through the business taking off or by scamming the money.

    Business loans for established set ups and the M of the SMEs is a bit more complex.

    I thought about this too - but for an established, small, profitable and audited business with a turnover in the 2 or 3 million plus range - it could happen.

  6. Why shouldn't banks be allowed to lend 100, 200, or 300 % mortgages if they want to and as long as they are transparent and free to fail then they would be the sufferers of such a policy very quickly.

    I would disagree.

    Unfortunately history shows that you need to beat Usury out of the system by law and force to maintain a civil society. So I don't agree that the way should be open for the money lenders. There has to be laws and enforcement or we will again end up in the situation we are in today.

    Who's the expert in this transaction, the drug pusher or the drug addict?

  7. I am a "fanatic Europhile" but I don't like how the EU is set up right now. I would have wanted an executive elected by the people, not some old Flemish man put there but some other "have beens".

    However I won't take lesson from so called "Eurosceptics" who scrounge on the European taxpayer. If you want to fight for your cause you have to give up your seats in the European parliament or shut up.

    Danger danger! :lol:

  8. Some SMEs operate with the sole purpose of piling on the debt and then going bankrupt. Strategy is salaries, dividends, management fees. Keep the plates spinning for as long as possible then hit the wall. I know at least one SME intimately that operates along these principles. The guy has no chance of paying back his debt and he knows it...

    You are a bank manager and I claim my $5..

    (I'll send you my loan application later) ;)

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