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About jonpo

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  1. Hope is a desire of positive outcomes. 'Desire' has no place in an investment strategy IMHO. Does a 'rational risk neutral investor' desire anything?
  2. Look I was here 2 years before you lot.. So you all are clearly trolls ... Not me. For people like me who have been here for 8 years the crash has clearly happened next one is probably 2019 or so.
  3. and how do you propose bringing about this deflationary paradise ?
  4. Yes I totally agree ...recessions are healthy... They help reallocate resources to more productive use... Creative destruction.. But I also believe you can go too far if your not too careful if you know what I mean.
  5. Fine, but for the hundreth time im not a banker. never have been never will be. I'm friends with some people who work for banks.. however none of them are bankers (ok well actually one of them is probably a "banker" but i knew him years before he stepped foot in a bank). I once did some work for a bank. but no longer. I'm just an average guy from a very average state school who did very average, academically. and I'm just trying to figure out the world and how it works. In London pretty much any party you go to will have someone who has something to do with financial services. So I try to avoid prejudging people based on their profession or employer. I'm just trying to say.. let it go.. there are bad people in the world who may have done bad things... sooner or later those bad things will probably catch up to them.
  6. There is no past and no future only now. Its like golf... you play the ball where it lands. you cant replay the golf shot that Alistair Darling took in 2008. you can only play your ball where is is now.
  7. Yes consume more house.... you will notice if you look at rightmove that not all of the houses are priced exactly the same and so anyone in the market for housing has a choice between consuming say a bedsit in peckham for instance or a mansion in belgravia.
  8. People cut their coat according to their cloth. if prices go up people will be able to afford less and hence buy less house. if prices fall people can afford more house and so it is rational for them to consume more house. Real price falls from 2008-2013 make it rational in my opinion to consume more house, the prospect of the further falls you predict seem distant when i look at the dynamics of my local market. The deposit money isn't gone it is merely transferred often housing transactions involve many transfers of capital its called a chain.. housing capital flows in one direction financial capital the other. has it not been this way for centuries ? Im not sure I understand you when you say "so many threw us under the bus to save jonpo types". we are just now emerging from one of the deepest recessions and slowest recoveries on record. the number of people working in financial services fell by ~100,000. RBS alone employs 140,000 and LLoyds employs 120,000 people. So do you think they should all just have been thrown under a bus? over and above the 100,000 that are presumably now more productively employed elsewhere? so that you can in your own self-interest buy the large detached house you think you deserve at a knock down price ? Every cycle has its malinvestors, and in every cycle the truth washes away the hope they once had. If you feel like you have been thrown under a bus in the last recession by the very actions which were taken to avoid a lot more people going under the bus then I pity you. A part of me kind of wishes you got what you wanted.. all those people going under the bus... the streets full of for sale signs but no credit and no buyers to be found. deflation, unemployment that would make spain seem like a street party. perhaps a good bit of rioting. did you really want to be out of work for a couple of years while we worked through that depression ? do you think that would be good for society ? would that have been justice for those hundreds of thousands of people who have so wronged you ? and where do you draw the line? how complicit was the shoe shine man in your "being thrown under a bus" ? what about the cooks in the restaurants of the banks ? the cleaners of the toilets ? the receptionists ? the people who refill the coffee and vending machines ? the people that move computers and telephones ? the HR department ? after all they are the ones that hire and pay these dastardly bankers... what about the PA's.. what about the girls hired just to look pretty ? what about the fresh interns ? the accountants the auditors the middle and back offices the myriad of IT departments.. are they all really complicit ? and thats before we get anywhere near people who actually do things in a bank which contrary to HPC myth is mostly not about screwing people over. its actually mostly about the provision of fairly mundane services for clients of the banks. my point is this 100,000 people in financial services actually went under the bus last time but I don't cry for them because they were playing the game, the system decided they were surplus to requirements and threw them under a bus. If you too lost your job in the last recession then im sorry its probably the systems way of telling you to do something more productive with your time. even for the people who managed to stay employed 'more for less' was always expected.
  9. Good, I don't want your sympathy. There are hundreds of thousands of other people who have also worked in financial services. And there are sadly many who are psychopaths. At least if I'm entertaining that's something.
  10. Not at all. I am who I am. The system is what it is. I cannot change the system without omnipotence. I can only change myself and make my own decisions. Some decisions I have made perpetuate the system other actions I have taken seek to subvert and possibly destroy the system. I cannot elaborate further. I am acutely aware of my own impotence.. Perhaps you seek to reform the system.. Maybe you can..but I know my limitations I have attempted to reform the system and failed. Now I tolerate it's shortfalls and get on with the game as it stands.
  11. Exactly lo fi... I don't make moral judgement about the state of the world.. I perceive the system and then play the game as I see it... I'm a pragmatic realist. And so in this capitalist system...I play a capitalist game. In my mind this is the only rational thing to do. If this makes me a bad person so be it.
  12. Oh sorry yes your right I clearly have permanently sold my soul to the devil by once upon a time whoring my labour skills to an evil financial services organisation. Only in HPC cult circles would that be considered an legitimate form of insult. In most of the rest of society we just get on with life and play the game not the player.
  13. This is an urgent appeal on behalf of HSBC which acorrding to reputable sauces of the interwebz has both too many liabilities and not enough cash ! If you think HSBC has too many Libilities please burn any of these you have ! If you think HSBC has not enought cash then print a sheet of these and save a bank that is bound to go out of business soon. If you think both then why not both print and then burn... Its not looking good for all those cash based hong kong businesses ! maybe HSBC could rent out that space on the £80 note occupied by their offices !
  14. but what if it always looks like the peak of a pyramid scheme what if it looked like one in 1983 1993 2003 and 2013 ? how do you identify which times it was a good time to buy in vs ones where it wasnt ? prices in 1983 were MUCH higher than they had ever been before EVER... prices had virtually doubled from 1978 (16K) through to the ludicrous average prices of 28K... do you think there wasnt a feeling then that it would all just collapse that prices would return to the sensible values of yesterday ?
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