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House Price Crash Forum


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About MartinKeown

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  1. You lot really are a misanthropic bunch of khunts aren't you? Haven't read the article. Sure it looks like they aren't particularly careful with money but they don't seem abnormally wasteful. They are just suffering from the same problem as everyone else. And which readers of this website ought to recognise very quickly. Taxes and Rents are too high. I don't know how they earn their 80K but I would imagine they have had to work hard for it. This is not some idiot benefit claimant aggrieved that they have to move out of their central London pad. Frankly these people DO deserve the lifestyl
  2. Move to CT17 mate. Cheap and chips and getting cheaper. Lovely countryside too and much more community than being stuck in some anonymous London borough. That said not sure its 50% off yet. Think that suggestion was compared with a little peak in March 2010. But that was a statistical anomaly - it was a month where very few houses sold - and I know that included the one we bought that month which was about 5 times the average and probably the most expensive house ever sold in the area. That said I'm sure like everywhere its still getting cheaper. Probably more so now Pfizer is closing. C
  3. That's a fair point. For us it's just me coming into London though. Plus I work one (sometimes two) days a week at home and crash in London one or two nights. I try to do no more than two round trips a week. Which keeps life bearable and costs down. My view is that that London firms are very soon going to realise that flexible working is a HUGE opportunity to make cost and productivity savings. We have a 700K house. My guess it would cost pobably 2 million in a reasonable part of london. That's an extra 1.3m to be paid out of post tax income (not to emention the interest if you're usin
  4. That's exactly what I did. Get right out to East Kent and there's some really cheap stuff. Unfortunately for me its getting cheaper rapidly with Phizer closing down! But if you were looking now, wanted to work in London and be able to to buy a decent house there's going to be some great value over the next couple of years.
  5. Here is a house which I know was on at 800k around the end of 2009. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-29604115.html http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-29604115.html How do I know? Because I offered 680k and might have paid 700k. (Well probably not actually as Mrs MK told me it was no good as a family home and she can be stubborn. But I was peppering the East Kent market at the time with offers trying to get a good sized family house). As you can see its now on for 500k and still hasn't sold. The woman who owned this has lost in excess of 200k throu
  6. So a load of bemused bank clerks in West Didsbury, wherever that is, look on quizically as a load of crusties hang out of windows above their branch and jeer the various elderly and disadvantaged folks who still feel the need to physically visit a bank to deposit birthday present cheques and the like... Are we sure this isn't a sitcom? Do they mean Dibley?
  7. I nearly spat my tea out over that!!!! That really ought to win some kind of prize for inadvertantly forgetting incredibly significant piece of detail. Less than 3 per cent for 15 years! That is a fantastic deal. Far far better than 1.5 % for 2 years. Christ I wish some awful banker would screw me over with that sort of deal. I'd have given him free poppadoms for life.
  8. Dont get me wrong - I think there could be a lot of play in the PM bubble yet. Could be a great bet - and I find it astonishing that people dont have at least a little bit held in it. But 75% in PM strikes me as idiotic unless you are able to make that bet with someone else's money or unless you at least recognise that you are making a bet. Nothing wrong with gambling. But gambling whilst convincing yourself that you are investing your life's savings prudently is what has got us into this mess. Fact is there's every chance real interest rates will rise. They certainly cant get any lower. Yo
  9. Wasn't meant to sound quite as scathing as it came out. Quite an interesting thread actually for which am grateful.
  10. Not good skills at all - save in the tinfoil hat world of HPC. You are ignoring two fundamental investment principles: 1 There is hardly any diversification in that portfolio 2 You are not matching your assets to your liabilities. Given your liabilities are are going to be in sterling - for UK rents, housing, taxes, food, widgets etc you could end up with a very poor result if the pound is strong at the time that you wish to spend your 'investments'. Even if the pound doesn't strengthen what happens if gold is at the top of a bubble already or Bullionvault turns out to be some kind o
  11. I'm not sure what's more shocking - a drunk Irishman shouting at people in the street or an HPCer assuming that this is a portent of the End of Western Civilisation. To be fair I read HPC because I think there is real chance things do melt down. But I do think even today it must remain far more likely than not that they wont. Sometimes HPC feels like a kind of post-enlightenment millenialism. Someon should get Gillian Tett to do one of her anthropological pieces on you (well, lets face it, us) lot.
  12. I think what this thread shows as much as anything is just how innefficient the housing market is whether renting or buying. I also think that this is why a quite dramatic crash doesn't always show up as clearly as we would like to see in the actual prices of houses that are available to buy now. My take on it is that the spread between a 'good' and 'bad' buy can be up to 15 maybe 20 % either side fair value. In my view that's possibly up to a massive 30-40% spread between buying/renting very well and buying/renting very poorly. Hence I am quite sure that Bruce Banner and others on here ar
  13. Current 20-30 year olds will generally be fine: in 4 or 5 years times houses will be affordable again - just as they come to acquire their first home or move into their main family home. The people who are really screwed are those between 30-45 who have moved into their main family house between about 2004 and now. Or who bought their first home during this period and bought very poorly. Anyone over 45 who's not set up for life is has probably fvcked up somehow.
  14. heh. it was the wrod 'technical' wasn't it. Should never be used unless deliberately trying to make people's eye's glaze over to get something past them without their noticing...
  15. Yes. As an avid reader of HPC I would hope it goes without saying that I 'know' this. I trust that you also appreciate that there are some technical legal differences between renting the capital to buy a house and renting a house. Such as 1 The fact I have at least a 5yr tenancy on the capital and, if I dont fvck up too badly, will be able to extend that tenancy without having to get anyone elses consent. 2 I can do whatever i like with the property in the meantime and any value that I may add will accrue to myself. Interesintingly the rent on the capital is about the sam
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