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  1. Regarding the thread the third way to do things the is the best with whatever tools have on open mind theirs several ways to skin a cat and the most expensive way isnt always the best so to speak.
  2. This Thread isnt about education but the comments regarding it well lets offer my views. At school I it was the smallest and totally thick and I promise theirs nothing cool about that as such I was a quiet timid person who only ever saw school as a punishment for being born and went through my youth as serving my time. I feel any child in school must at all efforts be taught their importance given confidence in order to receive a quality foothold. I left school with no O levels my character good my paper status nil. My dad was a director of a very large engineering company he pulled strings to get me an aprenticeship I worked very hard and to not be big headed I was the best by far not through ability but through my hard efforts and ambition to become managing director myself. Times pass I have become very successful in my own right and now I have more wisdom confidence and talant than most I always had but at school I always saw myself as nothing now I know the people I saw as better than me most wasnt. Some kids may be smart but are losers by design some like me would of started much better if I was pulled to oneside and had a chat as to why I was at school and a reason I could of understood as to its value and importance then I would of worked hard and got many O levels. Morons are morons and probably always will be the thick ones would all be a lot less thick with confidence the system fails to educate the kids as the purpose of schooling and its valued benifits and it should and I am sure more would come out better for it. I am now a lot smarter even today a total nobhead tried to violently bully me I have had many fights the bully used fear but he got nothing and left maybe next week he may will return with friends I will then call the police with details and and ask them to collect their details names addresses etc so they know make a move and not only will I defend myself but will also see them in court on criminal grounds win or lose they will have to look elseware for fear I will remain calm and be smart and go to the venue for a long time the bullies will move on they always do simply stand your ground and fight them your way and not theirs but I also have worked hard in the physical department too just in case. Most things can be achieved with hard work even a small thicko like me is a force to be reckoned by the nobhead tonight found out I have won a ftse 100 company by law as an individual unilatral action hence changed company policy I love it taking on the big guys unilatraly when I know I am right thats me anyway
  3. The £ wll drop but the Euro will probably drop more the $ for me is the best.
  4. $280m = £100m This was the exchange rated stated in Thunderball bond film I watched today I expect the collapse is Stearling to continue with or without Mervs comments if history is a guide to the future.
  5. I think collect the details over the cheaper unit and even view it why not and politly ask the landlord for a reduction in rents its a shot to nothing no harm done and if the other unit is fine you could be hard line and say I will take the new one unless a reasonable reduction is made. No harm in asking in a nice manner given your options.
  6. SUK2 Looks like a X2 leveraged fund for me anyone who goes short expecially leveraged timing must be near perfect or you can easily loose your shirt good luck anyway but i will offer some concerns you may not of thought of. I think the GBP could easily drop 20% this year if this happens this would give a big boost to the ftse because of the currency earnings increase with companys reporting or trading in other countries. Inflation increasing with higher import costs and the competitive edge for exportes and M&A action by other lands buying our companies cheaper. Merv talked the pound down this week remember the election is coming and the ftse liked it. I can think of many things to take it down too but given the very loose fiscal actions the market should be exploding up and it may do to. I think long term the market probaly will take out the march lows but I think thats after the next election and rapid if labour win Timing is key and a 50% or so jump looks good to short but the loose money around the market for me will top 6 or 7K before the shoe drops bigtime then its some kind of rampent inflation or deflation and hopefully its deflation and if thats the case a leveraged short will rocket but the amount of money lost in the short fund would probably not recover if the bull lasts until the next election. The trend is your friend I would only consider a short in a falling trend rather then guess a top for me and at 5k the ftse is in the 1998 level thats not too high and certainly not a screaming short China looks toppy. If you are lucky and a pull back happens in the next few weeks and you make a nice 10 or 20% take profits anyway I am waffling
  7. China aggresivly dumps US treasuries buys things like mining rights gold etc causing problems for the US 5% Major trade wars. 5% Collapse of a few big banks 10% Soverign default Ireland Spain etc and a break up of Europe. 5% High inflation causing strikes and civil unrest. 20% Soros or his type shorting GBP 10% Sharp and deep currency movements. 20% Hedge funds shorting too much and the markets over react. 5% Wars and terrorist acts. 5% Black swan event 10% Oh the government stops printing and supporting banks too soon 0.00000000000000000000000000000001% The government prints spends and borrows too much. 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% For me these things kind of offer chances to spoil the party I hope things will pan out ok but risk is high. Each day anyone is possible and a few more black swans but things usually go well when you think they are bad. For me much more devaluation of the GBP is inevitable and the Euro too times running out prepare yourself for inflation anyway.
  8. The cosumer is the problem and not the solution, When you cosume more than you produce as the UK does big time to continue you borrow money or produce more and consume less. Scrap unemployment benifits after 6 months for employment producing things for beniits Make it hard to have a ******* child collect £150pw or whatever it is and a free house scheme. Scrap sick pay for able people many will be found in the pubs spending their benifits. The several million people of the above can do much production needed and reduce imports and less deficit spending hence reduced taxes and a balanced economy with both consumers and producers creating growth. The above would be the hard necessary changes needed so the consumer is a no risk area to be blamed for our mess but not the solution. Raise the minimum wage to promote working and reduce bosses hyper pay awards scrap council tax and increase VAT These ideas are simple common sence to promote work rather than promote unemployment and balance the books for me.
  9. Clearly zero interest rates printing money deficit spending is designed to stoke inflation and prop up houseprices which underpins the banks assets regarding home loans. Clearly the risk is loss of confidence in stearling and repeating the last mistake a housing bubble which is now happening. The US is talking about easing down support and I assume we may be easing down things maybe less printing and increasing VAT and stampduty etc, For me this is very correct actions the stock market and houseprices may go down a bit and the banks wont be as strong but less risk of currency devaluations. Pain now or massive problems if things carry on as they are. The government would be smart to ease off now for me. I dont trust the powers that be so actions are what I watch for and not words but if they do reduce support and banks reduce lending I expect lower house prices or a leveling off but a general election is soon and with high unemployment and falling houseprices wont help Labour this conflict of interest the countrys needs and Labours desire to win the next election I expect a too loose fiscal policy to continue until April 2010 regardles of what is stated.
  10. The Euro is clearly overvalued and thats probably what they see and dont bank on a real rise in Stearling and the blog from Artimis on the HPC front page makes a clear case regarding stearlings weakness. A weaker pound does help reduce the trade deficit more to do with people unable or unwilling to pay for more expensive imports rather than the help to the exporters since the manufacturing industry has almost all been exported. My views
  11. If you buy shares their is nothing defensive as such and the only guarrente you will get is a rollercoaster ride up and down. If you just want stock per say look into the HSBC FTSE all share tracker its the lowest management fees about 0.3% and thats as defensive as you can get it buys the entire market and remember if a company goes bust that will benifit the surviving companys which you will own. Stock picking is an art and only invest in WHAT YOU KNOW and with money you can afford to lose and consider any individual stock as high risk. Their are tracker funds in most countries like the US Russia China etc I think Chinas a bit pricey but options to spread a bit. Hopefully this info helps
  12. I agree it may be pushing it but the purpose of this thread is to offer Silvers possible price in the future which can turn out much differet and to be honest I could make an even more bullish case and clearly if prices did shoot up the amount of scrap sold to the market would be a real headwind. I think we agree its undervalued at about £10.50 today and a 4 or 5 fold increase in capital which is the low end of your estimate is a good return in todays markets and I have added a few hundred 1oz ingots from an auction today at around spot. Its my pension so 20 years is fine for me and fairly risk free but like anything a downside risk is possible which is why I am not all in.
  13. To try and predict interest rates 3 years from now is a bit like will it snow on Christmas day in 3 years from now. I can offer things to say why they will be as they are now and how they could be in thousands of percent but hopefully your predictions wont be far off if the past is any guide but times are a lot different today so its very important to watch things very closely.
  14. Its fair to say this blog is around the question. What is money and its management? I dont know the correct answer but its for me a simple method of trade and storage of wealth. I am not a clever person but I am kind of a columbo detective in life. I have been playing the financial markets since the late 80s and bought and sold many things and I have never questioned the bottom line the cash amount. Now this is my main concern the meaning of the cash or number amount until last year £10.00 ment about 5 pints and the only thing in my mind was inflation meaning I may need £20.00 to buy the same pints in ten years from now and in a sence no worries. Until last year I have had confidence to a degree a note will convert to a certain amount of goods now and a fair estimate what the future holds today I have no confidence. One point you made is, What is standing behind Stearling, Giving its value at the moment. Good Question and what I see not much and this worries me. I think Stearling is overvalued by 90% and let me explain why. I see DVD players retailing under £20 and full school uniforms under £5 I am an engineer by trade and these things take some work and clearly the producers are being payed substancially below the correct payment this imbalance must correct. The Words Trust and confidence was used I cant agree more the facts regarding the imported goods above show as a fact the trust and confidence in GBP is too high and at some point in time the producers of these things would want a similar return in trade so how much would a school uniform cost to produce and export and retail cost probably much more than £5.00 maybe £50 to £100 and this is the reason a correction is inevitable. I suppose the market is the current value of things but markets are not smooth think of oil at $10 in the late 1990s then near $150 now at $70 I think stearling is very overvalued for me as the economy behind it is just a self serving credit card one and one day the market will reflect this fact and adjust I hope I am wrong but I have positioned myself just incase and if I trusted cash thats where I would be. It looks like the government is kind of using this method and I hope it pans out and it may do but I am very uneasy with things.
  15. I have never come by Chartalism before this post and to be honest quantative easing until the credit crunch but reading the Chartalism meaning I came across statemets like when the currency or script is in demand and then the market place accepting the debts as good etc. With the BOE becoming the market place in guilts thats fine if the script or currency is only swishing around in the UK but payment for goods in our global world from other lands the other lands must be payed with something they believe to be of value. Although the market place for guilts is functioning although manipulated via QE but if this QE continues surley the market place wont exist if their is only one buyer the BOE or UK pension funds forced to buy them by law hence no market place and no real value can ever be determined resulting loss of confidence for me. In the extreme QE and guilts reminds me of something like if you work for Tesco you wont be payed in cash to spend as you wish but only with Tesco credits which can only be spent in Tesco and if Tesco dosnt have what you want you dont get it and if they go bust your credits or life savings go with it. If this was the case nobody would work for Tesco. I have probably more confidence in Tesco credits than GBP to hold their value and if a lot more people think like me GBP would be worth next to nothing. Good blog and an interesting read.
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