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About Smashy

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  1. Just replying mainly to the original poster in case it helps, I am a long-time member of the forum, although I have posted very little over the years. Answer: No you are not. Probably buy now if you are ready in terms of personal circs/money. I know I will pick up flak for this. So let me first say the following (i.e. please actually read before attacking me): -- Please believe me when I say that my heart is with HPC, totally so. I have wished dearly for sensible prices and a modest crash in London for many years. If I was running the country I would be pushing some realistic but brave measures to alleviate the crisis over time in a measured way, such as a huge building effort, to greatly increase supply by compulsory purchase and redevelop/build "upwards" in appropriate areas of the capital. I would ban owning multiple properties within the M25. I would put cap gains on people's personal properties at least in London (and at higher rates for non UK citizens), make Sellers pay stamp duty, and a number of other measures to deal with rampant house price inflation. Not just because it is convenient for some - but because it is definitely against our economic and national interest and is life destroying. As many many people, have said before me and put better than I, HPI is the transfer of money from the poor to the rich - and is at such a scale to be utterly unjustifiable as a matter of policy. I'm sorry I cant do anything about this - I don't have the power or support to do so - who knows maybe one day I may try. So please don't shoot the messenger guys. --- With that out the way...my strong advice is 1) If you are really in a position to buy something appropriate for the medium term safely now at current prices 2) you want to buy in London, DO NOT WAIT UNLESS YOU ARE EARNING SO MUCH THAT EVEN WITH HIGH LONDON HPI YOU WILL DEFINITELY BE BETTER WAITING A FAIRLY SHORT TIME SO THAT YOU CAN PURCHASE A BIGGER HOUSE/FLAT THAT YOU COULD STAY IN FOREVER IF YOU HAD TO. If you wait the greater likelihood from where we are now is that you will be poorer the longer you do so. Sorry, but there it is. IF your personal circumstances are right you are better off to bite the bullet and have something than wait for years with your heart in your hands. Especially if family will help you reduce the immediate risk, as long as you can pay them back and the mortgage off whatever happens to the market then it is a bearable risk. If you did struggle, or want to get it paid off faster, rent it out and move abroad for a while. For career purposes you should do that anyway these days. The bias on here is frustrated people. I sympathise, I am one of them! But most advice will tell you to always wait as a reflection of this. Outside of London it might often make sense - just look at the land reg trends for what/where you want to buy and then make a sensible decision. If in London you hardly need bother analysing that much as most indicators have been pointing up despite the financial crash. I resent the lack of value for money too. But I'm afraid that is tough - it is the same for me. It is more likely to get worse than better. Why? The money coming into London is unlikely to now stop for generations. Sorry folks. I speak as a professional who knows China/Asia very well (I learnt fluent Chinese and, frankly speaking, I am an expert) and I am telling you that growth across Asia is on such a scale this means that demand is unlikely to drop massively in London in the medium/even very long run. Only a massive regional (really worldwide?) economic shock could do that. And before anyone says China may have that, I agree. But China has already emerged, a shock here may conversely just send even more money abroad. The wealth and economic power already exists, it is not just emerging anymore. We live in a world where the wealth in Asia looking for a home will not go away. Most likely ever, unless the UK seriously screws up. Be glad that will mean jobs investment and opportunity overall. Sigh, be brave and accept that does mean a housing downside for the time being until we finally get a government that will really build the housing infrastructure that London - a global city if it is to prosper - needs. That was your macroeconomic justification. Good luck with hunting!
  2. These redundancies were a given after the SDSR. They wont really impact greatly on the housing market overall - and are further depressing sign of our complete mismanagement of defence as we slowly become a third tier nation.. I really wish they would re-consider some of their bizarre/hasty decisions (the politico high ups should all be reading this http://www.uknda.org...d=745&catid=-1 but even they secretly agree they wont take a stand..sigh).
  3. Quite - but I was still very suprised that he didn't have more to say. In reality BTL or no BTL, the housing market is likely to be a function of other steps that the government feels it has to take, but even at junior minister level there should be more thinking about what the overall policy intentions are and what may happen next..
  4. Yup. As further proof of this I met the ass at the Conservative conference - at the National Landlords Assoc gathering in fact!! And no I am not BTL LL scum should anyone here have any doubt, it was more a case of know thine enemy. :angry: Anyway, I pulled him to one side after the gathering and asked him if they were ready for/expecting a proper crash - 20/30% etc. and he glibly replied that he didn't think that it was likely, because the crash has happened and that prices would now be stable.. I'm convinced the coalition dont have any kind of well thought out plan for sorting out the market out in a sustainable way. Maybe its time for direct action - anyone up for a firebombing campaign against BTL properties?
  5. See link: http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/238576/5/Industry_in_depth/Interest-only_loans_defended_to_FSA.htm Don't post often but thought this absolute travesty deserved its own thread - I sincerely hope a few will add to my comment (reproduced below) ! "I have difficulty in understanding how anyone can make these kind of submissions (and also the comments above) with a straight face. No one sensible should be fooled by this. The idea that renting off a bank is good for consumers in anything other than extreme circumstances, that ideally they should never find themselves in, is simply crazy. None of the so called examples where IO on a long term could be justified stacks up. A few unwise consumers may want them because they think (wrongly) that asset prices will only go up - wrong - and that it is a way to get on the ladder. This is essentially taking advantage of the poor and all of these vested interests should be deeply ashamed of themselves. The FSA (and anyone with any moral fibre at all) should stand up to this spivvery - it has had its day"
  6. No worries - I'm new to then forum thing so I feel the need to strongly defend myself You make a very valid point about the size of the mortgage going ahead - that is the main risk - but it is all a punt though isn't it? No matter how much we want it My fear is that prices will stagnate rather than fall that much - at the moment that is my feeling and that paints a different picture on things. Anyway getting off the forum for today.
  7. Good grief. Lets try have a go at the bogeyman if we think we can find him shall we? Firstly I'm only interested in your analysis, not being got at. Thanks. I must say I'm say i'm terribly worried about not being supported on this website by people with hunches about people they don't know and who have only posted...twice! How can you have any inkling? In the real world you would never dare, have a think about it. It so happens you picked the wrong target, i've been extremely frustrated for years waiting to buy a home, while basically being legged over, from my point of view, by society at large. I don't see why you were unable to take my posts above at face value. If you read my post I think I say clearly i want to buy primarily because i want a settled home, and I may have a lower salary when I'm away - not when I'm back. Anyway, I'm well aware of the risks which is why i have been waiting for years - I have a very sensible deposit, I know what area I will want to be in, and I will be able to afford repayments on a much lower salary, or even if had no job for a while etc etc. I also note you make no particular case as to why I should wait until 2012 - I presume because the crash may then (you hope) be in full swing? I hope prices drop a long way, the country is screaming out for it, but I can't wait for ever, given my circumstances and it may be better to have myself sorted before the next step in my career while I can. Anyway i've at least learnt that it is pointless posting about oneself unless I'm ready to be got at, so I'm shutting off for today, cheers.
  8. Yes, because i would least have the certainty I can afford something decent now while I can... I have a big enough deposit so that I should be fairly safe on monthly payments, but there is a concern - but do correct me if you think I must be wrong, i'd been geniunely interested - that I wont be able to borrow enough money to buy a place while i'm away because i may be doing something with a foreign firm that will pay me less in the short term. ok?
  9. Sorry, don't really get you on this - I think you're probably thinking too simply - why would you not consider it in any event, ever? Like any financial/major life decision there are potential advantages and also pitfalls depending on general and personal circumstances. I want to buy for a number of reasons, but primarily i'm buying a long-term home so I have somewhere settled to come back to, not for the purpose of investment as such. Another large factor is depending on what job I go to it may make more sense to buy now because I may not have such a high salary for a while - which whether I like it or not matters if I want to buy. Further, If I go abroad it will likely only be for a couple of years at the most, and if i'm going to buy fairly soon it may make sense to do it and have some help with the mortgage while i'm away. That, of course, is taking a punt that there won't be a significant, relatively swift, crash in prices that would leave me better off than if I just leave the deposit money in the Bank or other low yield "safe" investments in the meantime..It is impossible to tell what will happen, but if prices aren't dropping much by Jan it may be better for me just to get on with it, say to hell with uncertainty and have my own home come what may.
  10. Hi guys! Been lurking on HPC for years and this is my first post.. I'm in very much the same place as the OP so anyone's views on buying over the next six months much appreciated (and I'm sure by others who will look at the thread). We seem to now be in a critical phase, and yes I know one could, and many did, say the same thing at many points over the last few years, but in my view the crash is slowly happening already. However, I think it will be a long drawn out process, i.e. in non inflationary terms it may not be steep, so there may not be such a great windfall for HPCers soon. Now or Jan may not make much difference. I may want to go abroad to work next year, and if it is a choice between waiting and renting a place out, I may be better off to buy late in the year/Jan even if there is a gradual crash over the coming months/years. One can't wait for ever - and it has already been three years (longer than I would have liked). Also just to second the above - the question was about buying, clearly the OP has personal reasons, like me, why he wants to, and whether those reasons are good or not, that was his question and the purpose of the thread. And let no one even try and pretend there are not solid reasons for wanting to buy, if there were not we would not all be on this forum! Cheers S
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