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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by dipstick

  1. There are lots of companies that do kit houses in Scotland and they are cheaper than the ones listed here. They are more the norm up there and BS etc have no problem lending on them. However I don't actually see the point. There are plenty of properties available they are just too expensive. Wouldn't it make more sense to ensure these were made cheaper rather than build a load of new (and overpriced) properties. There is no housing shortage. I repeat: There is no housing shortage! Just a shortage of affordable houses.
  2. One of the most irritating "push" factors for me has been the lax and irresponsible attitude of lenders. If the government really wanted to control HPI and put people back on the property ladder lending should have been legislated harder a good while back. According to a Scottish property website, the average lend in England is now 5x as compared to Scotlands 3.5x. I've also seen 130% mortgages advertised (clear your debts at the same time as buying a house!) and tie yourself up for God knows how many years ( I think one lender does 45). The government has played on the snob value of "your property is worth x amount, therefore you are better off for it". These are the same buildings for heavens sake. I know it's not an investment situation but if I went out to buy a sofa today and it's price had doubled since yesterday, would I be more affluent for buying it or just plain stupid?
  3. Hope (with a bit of fear thrown in). But not because I want them to go up, I actually sold mine at the peak in our area and have been renting ever since (nighmare). Just want to pay a fair price for a place to call home. Not house, not investment, not capital. Just plain home. Hasn't it been fear that has driven this stupid market in the first place: fear that if they didn't get on the ladder they never would, fear that they may miss out on profits. Just a tiny bit of me still thinks there maybe enough frightened folk out there to push it up another tad instead of it going in the sensible direction. Wanted to know what you lot's objective opinion was?
  4. I was thinking more of the short term rather than the long term classix. Unfortunately I have been around long enough to understand the long-term implications of price rises but at the moment I am trying to decide when to buy, not particularly bothered about buying at rock bottom, but don't want to join the ridiculous rip-off of todays market.
  5. Does anybody on here think house prices will go up .......and if so why? Why I put How instead of House in the title I don't know!
  6. Quick Gruffydd push it up north. Gwynedd area next please!!!
  7. Nice to know I'm not on my own in this. I thought there was only me getting the pressure! I've stuck it out for 18 months now and it's been a nightmare. Even the other day I had my LL telling me to buy because properties in my price bracket i.e. FTB (although I'm not) won't come down because they (FTB's) will always be able to afford it. Uncle passed on a message the other day via a relation that I "had to buy before Christmas because the prices are going to shoot up". Mind you he did used to be an EA! Does get you down though and takes a bit of willpower to hold out when you just want to get settled.
  8. The king is in the altogether, he's altogether.............it's altogether.......!!! What I find most sad about this posting is the obvious relationship between cash, material goods and wealth. Are we so shallow that only this stuff counts anymore. What you can portray materially to the outside world is the only thing that matters.
  9. Won't it ultimately be EA's that bring down the house prices? I can't see them sitting on their backsides earning diddly squat for the next 7 years or so. Surely it will be them that start to value properties lower to ensure the pound in their own pocket. After all it was their BS that had a lot to do with talking them up in the first place.
  10. I got the same impression 737. That he would do as he needed to. To be honest I think at the minute a smidgeon will be enough to get people really thinking, especially in the light that their expectations were towards a fall.
  11. Oh and I forgot to add that if anybody is interested in a nosey, there is an EA advertising his services on eBay under Everything Else - Property, but only to sellers who are willing to advertise their properties at 10% under the market value. Quite interesting!
  12. So buyer "faith" isn't being hit in the most obvious place, the interest rates, which would nose dive it because everybody sees the implications of that (even me!) but it is going to get hit with the drip, drip effect of all the other stuff! Feel better now. Thanks!
  13. Thanks for that Dog. I know the difference between this time and the 80's is that then we had the rises to push the slump. This time we don't have it and the market still seems to be heading for a decline which indicates to me that if it goes we will be harder hit (hardly seems possible!). But I do remember an old boss of mine once thrusting a quid under my nose and asking me what it was. I gave a few guesses only to get the response "It's faith". Faith that it will buy you tomorrow what it would buy you today. Essentially worthless. The interest rate issue leads me to believe that people still have faith. I know a lot of people think that a slump doesn't need a trigger but I do believe that people need their faith knocking before they will realise that they could lose out.
  14. So when and why can we expect a rise? I've been praying since Christmas and it doesn't ever look like it's going to happen now. Heaven knows how the gov are keeping it down but they are and it's stopping a mass slide.
  15. I've just been trawling around the boards and looking at threads as recently as May. It seemed up to that point most HPC'ers thought that interest rates would rise. I have to admit that so did I. With the advent of interest rates stablizing and indeed much talk of a fall, won't that adversely affect the HPC? Even if it doesn't fall, the talk of it being stablized in the media etc would, I think, give buyers confidence to get back into the market place even at these highly inflated prices and also give sellers the confidence to think they will achieve their asking price. Help me put this one straight in my head please?
  16. Either way it's going to be depression for a lot of people. What I can't understand about the "boomers" is why they want it to be that way? Yes, in the short term some people have made quite a bit a money. For the majority though, although paper rich, all they have is a bigger debt as opposed to a bigger investment which they seem to think they have. Unless they downsize the increased value of their property is worth diddly squat because they are going to have to increase their contribution towards the next one on the ladder. For the other bits of the population who haven't even been able to get a foot on the ladder there will be depression all round. Economics aside the social implications of this so called "boom" will be horrendous. Who the heck wants to live in a £1/2 million pound house if we have to surround ourselves by barbed wire and alarm systems because we are frightened what the other half of the population will resort to. I really do see the country having to turn some residential areas into some like those in the US where security guards etc patrol. Do we really want that just so we can float around saying "my home is worth x amount"?
  17. I'm in that area at the moment and as far as I can tell house prices have slowed to a halt. Very little is moving. With regards to farming as an industry in this region, the recent alterations to farming payments mean that you are paid on acreage not on livestock. The majority of farmers around here are livestock (mainly sheep) not arable. So they may hold large numbers of animals on small amounts of land compared with the larger arable farming regions. This means their income has dropped substantially. In respect of tourism, this is only a seasonal trade and in winter tourists are not exactly pouring money into the area. I'm sure some money does come from "industry" all areas have some form of it but there doesn't appear to be enough of it around here to support high mortgage payments by local residents. It is known locally that there is a shortage of rented properties and it is a subject of hot debate that many people have come into the area pricing locals out of the market and also buying second homes to either use themselves as holiday homes or renting them out during the summer months to tourists.
  18. Yep, I get the inflation/earnings ratio thing. What I am losing touch with is the interest rate/housing thing. But I think I may be getting closer! Last time round i.e. in the 80's/90's interest rates rose causing problems for people paying mortages etc etc. So this time round I am waiting for interest rates to rise thinking that this will have the same effect as last time. What you guys are saying is that if inflation stays low it will keep wages low and then reduce consumer spending power? Also that the public don't understand that low inflation keeps not only prices low but also wages and therefore the "big sell" on low inflation by the Gov is a bit of stinker. Hope I'm getting there or I'm going to have to get the economics book out!
  19. Ohh, I'm not understanding the inflation/IR thing at all. My simplistic understanding of it is, that if IR fall people will be more confident about borrowing money (thinking they have more to spend because their mortgage outgoings will be less) and therefore it pushes the housing market. Last time, as interest rates rose people couldn't afford what payments they had never mind increasing them, so either bailed out or battened down the hatches. Come on you guys explain your economics in idiot language to me!
  20. Just as a matter of interest I was wondering if anybody watched house prices at auction? I've always felt they give the best immediate indicators as to what is happening in the market and at the minute although prices and total numbers sold seem to have fallen in many areas, overall, they still seem to be doing OK. Any other opinions as I personally would be more comfortable if they were dropping off more.
  21. Hello Rob, Not an expert on this except in the fact that I got caught up in it. So I'll try and remember as best I can. We bought in Lincolnshire in 1988. I think the property was around 39k and we put 9k down. The interest rates were at one of the all time lows at the time. Meanwhile the government announced that they were going to stop married persons tax allowance on property in 6 months time and I believe this was one of the forces behind the price hikes. Pretty much the same as the buy to let has pushed it this time. 6 months after we purchased the market was still going crazy, bearing in mind that it does affect different parts of the country at different times, but I remembered we went to the bank to borrow more money and the surveyor came out again because we were just outside the 6 month limit. He said that he could get us 65k "blind" for the property. As in he knew people down south who would buy it. We turned him down. Big mistake. Interest rates started to rise and just kept on rising. When it got to 9% we were told it just couldn't go any higher. Yeh right! Job losses in these situations are usually caused by a fall in consumer spending because they have less disposable income because it is going on their mortgage payments. So usually a property crash will cause job losses and not visa-versa. The circle is then self-perpetuating. I really don't get the interest rate thing and talk of cuts. They only make sense if you believe our GDP and productivity and employment figures. I don't and think the government must be sweating buckets. The other thing that is keeping the momentum at the moment are the lenders willing to lend ridiculous amounts out. The desperate and guilible are taking them up on the offers. If this stopped tomorrow I really do believe the market would fall at a heck of a pace. Some good permanent articles on the forums that explain things a lot better than I can. I just remember the experience and the cost we had to pay. By the way we eventually sold the house in 1993 for 67k including carpets curtains etc. Bear in mind that when the surveyor offered us 65k back in 1988 in was a half wrecked shell. 5 years of hard graft, ridiculous payments that nearly broke us and lenders then that didn't want to lend. Still we got out of it without NE or losing our home so we were one of the luckier ones. Anybody want to contradict me on any of the above please feel free. The stress may have clouded my memory a little!
  22. Thanks Blackjack! Rural house prices have seemed to rise more than any other and they are the ones I watch in particular, but apart from the odd few they now seem to have started stagnating with all the rest other than the cheaper end of the market in Scotland. Even there I am beginning to think it is a lot of EA's talk rather than what is actually happening. More sellers seem willing to accept an offer rather than go to closing date.
  23. No, no, no. They are not pushing debt, they are "helping" people get on the property ladder, with the full support of the government because there is no affordable housing. Plenty of housing like but nobody can afford the stuff we've already got.
  24. OK then who can help me out? Which part of Wales should I be looking in for a small rural property with quite a bit of a garden? Best price wise I mean. I've been on the house-hunting front for over a year now after selling my own last January. Started the hunt in Scotland and it was a nightmare. The sealed bid system is fine in a relatively stable market but not when outsiders are throwing money at it. It seems that rural properties in Scotland are going to remain quite high, relatively speaking, for the time being at least. I've been in rented both in Lincs and now am actually in Wales and think it's wonderful. The Welsh folk have been particularly welcoming despite all the horror stories you hear. I can tell that the properties around here (I'm in the North) seem to be stagnating but we do have a bit of a standoff between buyers and sellers. I think EA's are still giving buyers the bumpf that prices are buoyant. Any ideas. Desperate woman seeks home!
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