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House Price Crash Forum


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About mnkybusiness

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  1. Makes some sense. If Labour win it would be unlikely that Brown would leave office, possibly until after the following general election. Faced with that scenario it wouldn't be surprising if the young uns preferred to lose the election and rid themselves of Brown whilst the Cons attempt to clear up the mess.
  2. There is a good chance of this in my opinion. I base this on the reports that Sterling is massively shorted, and this is typically a recipe for a squeeze.
  3. It would help if you gave a clear definition of the concept. I agree that volumes of sales are lower than normal, but they are not as low as they were during the peak of the financial crisis and the volumes are rising once more. I would just like to know at what point we are no longer in this concept of a buyers strike. It should be fairly easy to put a simple parameter around since there are very clear statistics for volumes of sales.
  4. We'd better go slowly. You constantly refer to January 2009 - January generally being the lowest month for sales in any year - and use that to say house sales are continually rising and that there isn't a Buyers Strike going on I refer to it not arbitrarily, but because it was the month in which the lowest volume of sales was recorded since Jan 1995 when the Land Registry published stats begin. If you'd like to be arbitrary we could use Feb 09 instead and it would still support my opinion. By the way, I haven't seen a definition of a buyers strike so I've no idea whether or not we've experience one. I have just been comparing monthly volumes with average monthly volumes and considering anything at the extremes to be abnormal. I am not making numbers up, the Land Registry stats show that volumes of sales steadily rose from Jan 09 to Dec 09. That is just a fact. You also use the last quarter of 2009 to claim that there is conclusive evidence that the Buyers Strike is over - yet, as we BOTH acknowledged, that Quarter was heavily distorted by the rush to beat the Stamp Duty Holiday deadline. Again, I have no idea what the buyers strike concept is, so cannot claim to know when it would have started of finished. Perhaps you can educated me on these parameters? I referred to the last quarter of 2009 to merely point out the fact that this was nowhere near a record low point for volume of sales for a 3 month period. This may be because of structural factors such as the stamp duty holiday. We will know more when Jan and Feb 2010 figures are published. You also haven't provided any real evidence that 2006 was so significantly unusually high in activity Yes I have, but since you missed it here you are again. The average monthly volume from Jan 95 to Dec 09 was 87,206. The same figure for the 5 years to Dec 99 was 83,975. The same figure for the 12 months to Dec 06 was 106,200. Furthermore, in the 15 year period the two years with the highest annual volume of sales were 2002 and 2006 with 1,291,307 and 1,274,395 respectively. The next highest year was 2007 incidentally, with 1,220,698. The average annual volume of sales for the 15 years was 1,046,476 with 2006 being 20% above average. You haven't provided any real evidence that the sales figures for 2008 and 2009 were not massive collapses in comparison with other years other than 2006. No, of course I haven't because I agree that the sales figures in these years are well below average. I agree with that view because it is irrefutable given the stats. A collapse in property sales of 60%+ - not evidence of a Buyers Strike!! Ye gads, I hate to think what your definition is of a Buyers Strike. Again, I don't understand the concept of a buyers strike so I have no views on whether or not we've had/are having one. I merely pointed out that 2006 volumes were 20% above average and 2006 was almost a record year for volume so the fall in activity was was from a higher than average level. It makes more sense to compare the low level period to longer term averages in my view.
  5. Ah I see, so where do I get me some of that there buyers strike?
  6. No, I don't agree there is an "ongoing massive collapse in property sales". The figures don't support it. In Jan 2009 26,190 sales were completed while in Dec 2009 73,889 sales were recorded. That's a 182% increase using the type of comparison you chose to illustrate the 'massive collapse' of around 60% from 2006 levels. Yes, of course the level of activity is well below that observed in 2006, but 2006 activity was high compared with all but 1 year in the past 15 so saying that we are in a 'buyers strike' because levels are well below 2006 is misguided. Yes, activity is still below average, but it is above the low in Jan 2009 by relatively more than it fell compared with 2006. Surely the low in Jan 2009 epitomised a buyers strike, not the near average monthly volumes recorded in the last quarter of 2009.
  7. I don't see anyone disputing that there was a collapse in the volume of completed sales in 2008. Also, no one seems to dispute that completed sales during 2009 were at an all time low. It would be difficult to dispute these unless you don't believe Land Registry data. It is also shown in their data is that 2006 was the year in which the second ever highest volume of sales was recorded (2002 was slightly higher). So the collapse in 2008 was large because we went from an above average annual volume to a below average annual volume in 2008. In 2009, after January the monthly volumes were increasing back towards the average. My question is, what level of activity would you consider to constitute a 'buyers strike'?
  8. Don't forget to deduct capital gains tax, but of course the sums still work in your favour!
  9. We've been discussing monthly volumes of completed sales as published by the Land Registry. The year 2009 saw a record low number of completed sales with Jan 2009 recording the lowest monthly volume since Jan 1995. Since Jan 2009 the monthly volume of sales has been increasing. I'm not aware that there is an alternative source of completed house sales other than the Land Registry. Yes, the indicators for the first 3 months of 2010 are that housing market activity has slowed compared with Dec 2009. The Land Registry hasn't yet published its volume data - latest available is to Dec 2009.
  10. Yes, it is quite simple and I am questioning whether it's simplicity is useful or not. I'm not sure the average HPCer would find consideration of 1 additional factor to a 1 factor analysis particularly complicated.
  11. I don't see how we can draw too many conclusions from it either. It actually tells us very little. For example, how has average wealth as opposed to earnings and excluding mortgaged property changed over the chart's period? My guess would be that it has increased. I couldn't find any simple measure to check this guess, but HMRC did publish some estimates from 2001 to 2005 of wealth by individual on year of death and this indicates a 17% increase in wealth over the period excluding the value of houses. If that is indicative for any more of the chart's period then wealth must be an important factor in determining the affordability of houses.
  12. True, but presumably the record of completed sales lags the point at which a sale was negotiated by around 3 months. This would explain the record low monthly volume seen in Jan 2009, which lagged the worst of the financial crisis seen in Sept/Oct 2008. Since that point volumes have been steadily recovering.
  13. Thanks, this helps my understanding. Given that volumes have recovered towards the 15 year average from the very low levels seen in 2008, are we coming out of the buyers strike?
  14. Strength in the pound? Fair enough it may be up today, but two weeks ago it was trading a full 2 cents higher than it is today!
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