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r thritis

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Everything posted by r thritis

  1. Well if you see a train heading towards the buffers at 100mph, you can make a fairly good prediction that there will be a crash. In January 08 there was sufficient evidence that the housing market was in steep decline. Some, even most 'experts' (Howard Archer - Global Insight), and the Haliwide 'experts' were still predicting stagnation. Others, were able to see beyond their own self interest.
  2. In addition to the UK bubble, I suspect that a good part of the Spanish bubble is caused by Brits
  3. The fall in the FTSE this morning was attributed at least in part to the Nationwide figures. I dont understand this - surely no one expected the index to rise this month - did they?
  4. Returned to the country in 2001 and set about looking to buy a house. Started to smell a rat and then did a few sums about the cost of renting v buying. I figured that we would 'own outright' our own home sooner if we rented saved and waited. The plan is now nicely on course. Discovered this site in 2005 - and it was a revelation to discover that I wasn't the only one! By the way, some of the previous posts highlight an issue: Some (many?) discoverers of the HPC site do not necessarily discover this forum and think the content is limited to what they see on the home page. Maybe there needs to be some more obvious clickable link on the home page to increase the visibility and make its existence more obvious.
  5. This wasn't the reason for the 3.5 x salary rule. Above this multiple, lenders were exposing themselves to excessive risk. They figured that this multiple would result in the maximum manageable repayments for the borrower. The transition to a low inflation/low interest rate world meant that people could still make the monthly payments even if higher multiples were offered, thus removing the risk element in the short term. Problem is this lending model falls apart when rates start to rise again. As the policy makers are rewarded with bonuses for short term results, by the time the wheels fall off, it has become somebody elses problem.
  6. Not sure who that is good news for (the remortgage numbers). If you are coming off a low fixed rate onto a swingeing standard variable rate, you're going to remortgage if you can. Anyone who can't is royally screwed.
  7. Interesting thread. What the above posts show more than anything is that else that life is what you make it. The winners above are those that have taken the prevailing situation and turned it to their advantage. I suspect that had conditions been completeley different, we would have seen the same winners and the same losers.
  8. I think you're being over generous. I think the earlier theory was nearer the truth, i.e, that the guy is a complete tit.
  9. I think the agent is playing at psychology here. Maybe it is a way to persuade sellers to drop to a more sensible asking price, by conjuring up an image of a queue of buyers in a frantic bidding war.
  10. I guess its a balancing act for them between risk and profit. The higher LTV mortgages come with higher rates and higher arrangement fees. Presumably they figure that overall they will make money on the deal. Negative equity is only a problem if the borrower defaults.
  11. 1. Estate agents 2. Estate agents oh - and thirdly, estate agents.
  12. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/ This is the News Blog. You must read every linked article on here every day. Its good for the soul!
  13. Aha - I suspect that this is not a coincidence! The sort of individual who can detatch their mind from the property ladder pyramid scheme is the same sort of geezer who can recognise the financial drain that is a new motor.
  14. Can anyone link the HPC thread this refers to? Looks like an interesting one!
  15. I was in this position when selling in 1995. You will almost certainly be able to convert the negative equity amount into a standard unsecured loan. This is what I did. The bank were a bit shirty at first but when I told them that I was leaving the country to work abroad, and it would have been very easy for me to just walk away as lots of people were doing at the time (volentary repossession they called it), they soon saw that it was a very good deal for them. On the bright side, that experience taught me all I needed to know in order for me to recognize another bubble when I saw it on my return, 8 years later!
  16. Its too late for this. The HPC argument is over, the argument is won - house prices are in free-fall. At the end of all this, FTB's will once more be able to afford a home at a reasonable price. The time to do this would have been during the boom - to attempt to prevent further inflation of the bubble and save a million 'victims' who were coerced into buying at the peak.
  17. These forecasts lack any credibility. They are basically looking out the window and forecasting what they see today, rather than looking out into the Atlantic at the approaching storms.
  18. I love this populist view of life as a tenant. This is the view that fuels the 'you must own property at all costs' culture - the Kirsty and Phil induced mentality. This is the laughable prejudice I face every day as a long-term tenant as, home-'owners' look down their nose at me like something they've just scraped off their shoe. Who's family do you think is more secure? The family struggling to keep up with the payments on their interest only mortgage, or mine with a wad in the bank and a low monthly rent.
  19. Look - Here's what you said in your OP: I'm just pointing out that your strategy depends on their asking price however unrealistic that may be. Don't bite me 'ed off. Sheesh yourself!
  20. The flaw in your strategy is that it is based on their current asking price. You may get the biggest % reduction off the property that is 100% overpriced currently.
  21. For 10 years, many many people were doing this and you just couldn't lose. As a result, the concept of risk went completely out the window and people just stopped considering it. Seems crazy now doesn't it? - how times have changed in te last year.
  22. Me too. But the point is, that the nominal interest rate is irrelevant. The actual 'cost' of the loan is the real interest rate. In other words the interest rate relative to inflation.
  23. Every month, reducing interest is rates the correct course of action.
  24. Actually he did reappear briefly very recently on the 'other side'. He basically gave up posting as he tended to get addicted to it - and found that he didn't get any work done.
  25. To prevent boom and bust, you have to prevent the boom. The problem with preventing boom is that it is never recognised as such until afterwards, by which time its too late. Even if it is recognised, there is too much temptation for chancellors with sticky little fingers to want to reap the boom for all its worth.
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