Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

James Wyatt

New Members
  • Content Count

    31
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by James Wyatt

  1. If you want to see a 'good chart' go to voxeu and read Carmen and Vincent Reinhart's paper on "The Decade after the fall" herewith is the link and the best graph is the one at the end albeit just covers post WWII collapses. http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/5499 Real housing prices for the full period is available for ten of the fifteen financial crisis episodes. For this group, over an eleven-year period (encompassing the crisis year and the decade that followed), about 90% of the observations show real house prices below their level the year before the crisis. Median housing prices are
  2. Our latest indices are available including Fulham: http://www.johndwood.co.uk/content/Services/Research__Publications/ Just go onto our website and they are all available under Surveyors, Publications. James Wyatt FRICS
  3. Our latest indices are available for Fulham, Chelsea etc on our website under Surveyors and Publications http://www.johndwood.co.uk/content/Services/Research__Publications/ James Wyatt
  4. By kind request Capital Economics put broad money (M4) against house price to earnings ratio (see attached). James M4 against HPE December 2010.pdf M4 against HPE December 2010.pdf
  5. The attached chart from Capital Economics charts broad money (M4) against the house price to earnings ratio and following Irving Fisher's identity equation (MV=PT) suggests further QE. James Wyatt M4 against HPE December 2010.pdf M4 against HPE December 2010.pdf
  6. There has been academic research to suggest prices are 'sticky' downwards as owners will not lower their prices below a certain level. This level is normally around the cost of purchase. The problem the market has at the moment, and one I raised in the Moneyweek roundtable, is the fact owners can afford to stay put as servicing costs are so low. These interest rates are likely to stay low as raising them quickly to where they should be (RPI at 4.5% so interest rates at 5.5-6%) would cause a signiciant correction and a debt deflationary spiral (Irving Fisher's piece in Econometrica 1933 is wort
  7. I believe The Economist had actually warned about asset price bubbles in the 1990s (pin pricking a bubble in about 1997-1998). Pam Woodall, the economics editor at the time, continued to argue for asset prices to be monitored and remedial action to be taken. Unfortunately, she moved on and the current economics editor seems to have little understanding of this neglected school. In actual fact many hard monetarists share similar views and have even supported the abolition of fractional reserve banking. If you want to read more there are several very good books (stocking fillers). Austrian Ec
  8. In reply to the question on what is next for Prime Central London, it very much depends on the City and the international consequences of the deleveraging. Our indices we produce are indpendently compiled by the LSE and use actual pounds per square foot at the date of exchange and show far greater volatility than other indices. However, they do show central London has almost tripled in the last ten years and even allowing for beyond trend earnings growth due to the City bonuses, this again suggests prices may be above fundamental values. However, with the low levels of debt it would suggest
  9. "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" Keynes (one of my favourite quotes) Whether looking at the price to earnings ratio or affordability, house prices are above long term fundamental values and have been for a number of years. As many of my colleagues will testify I have been of the belief we have been in a credit bubble for many years (probably since 1997/1998 after I was gazumped twice); however, property prices continued to soar. The deleveraging which must take place is highly deflationary and this is why many economists, including Mervyn King and James Ferguso
  10. Sorry for the delay in replying. To angrypirate We do keep a record of properties which have come to the market. The problem is with negative real interest rates owners can afford to sit tight and try high prices and this does not help the liquidity. To denarii It would be an interesting study to examine the percentage of foreign buyers compared to other areas. Fulham has changed markedly over the years and there are many foreigners especially French, due to their nursery school and primary school. Consequently, all agents have reported a large number of French moving from their South Kens
  11. Apologies for the delay the Notting Hill Graph and Index should now be on our website at www.johndwood.co.uk James Wyatt FRICS
  12. Most agents will tell you the market is far more volatile than almost all indices show as they are normally heavily "smoothed". One month can be quiet and the next everything is going to sealed bids and for 10-15% more than the guide (typically around bonus time). In central London many properties are held in companies and the companies are transacted thereby not showing up on Land Registry. Property portal indices show agents opinions and are therefore forward looking, our index uses the date of exchange when the deposit is paid and Land Registry uses completion, which can be several months l
  13. Most portals track asking prices and therefore give an indication of the future direction of the market. It will be interesting to read the RICS survey. Our own research as mentioned on another thread uses actual prices achieved on the date of exchange from all leading agents and shows record prices achieved in the third quarter (many of the properties have not completed). However, many agents are reporting falling applicant numbers and a rise in supply, which would account for asking prices dropping off. With negative real interest rates there is very little pressure on owners many of whom pr
  14. It seems the last post was quite an accurate prediction of the direction of the market. Latest graph and index: http://supadu.com/images/ckfinder/54/pdfs/Chelsea%20Property%20Graph%20and%20Index%20October%202010.pdf James Wyatt FRICS
  15. New graph and index available: http://supadu.com/images/ckfinder/54/pdfs/Notting%20Hilll%20House%20Graph%20and%20Index%20October%202010.pdf It seems the negative real interest rates coupled with the rising stockmarket and City bonuses are having an impact (for now). James Wyatt FRCIS
  16. Latest graph and index now available: http://supadu.com/images/ckfinder/54/pdfs/Fulham%20House%20Graph%20and%20Index%20October%202010.pdf The Fulham market continues to be active. James Wyatt FRICS
  17. Good point on asking prices and as my email stated agents are reporting a softening of the market and this should come out in the Q4 data. Our indices track pounds per square foot at exchange so actual transactions in the market place. It is interesting to note our indices also show far greater volatility and a more significant fall after Lehmans and greater rebound. Recommended reading for those interested Irving Fisher "Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depressions" 1933 Econometrica pp337-357 Ortalo-Magne, Francois and Merlo, Antonio in "Bargaining over Residential Real Estate Evidence f
  18. Our index has just been released and shows Prime Central London has reached new highs in Q3. The index uses actual transactions from all leading estates agents from the date of exchange (many of the sales have not even completed) and is independently compiled by the LSE. Link: http://supadu.com/images/ckfinder/54/pdfs/Prime%20Central%20London%20Property%20Graph%20and%20Index%20October%202010.pdf This should come as no surprise as there are negative real interest rates, the stockmarket is in the ascendancy (for now) and bonuses are continued to being paid. Currently owners of property in Lond
  19. Flats versus Houses There can be circa 25%-30% difference between flats and houses depending upon location (houses in streets, which comprise of flats, tend to transact at a discount). Why Post The reason is simply to help people and give them a realistic view of what is happening in the market. Our indices have shown much greater volatility and are far more representative of the general market as they use actual transactions. James Wyatt FRICS
  20. We undertake research into the movement of Notting Hill house values and below is a link to our latest graph and index. The graph and index use pounds per square foot at the date of exchange and appears to replicate the market and the volatility very well. It is interesting to note our graphs show a much greater fall from the peak and subsequent re-bound. Notting Hill is very dependent upon the fortunes of the City. http://www.johndwood.co.uk/pdf/notting_hill_july_2010.pdf.pdf James Wyatt F.R.I.C.S.
  21. Apologies for lack of explanation. The graph and indices represent pounds per square foot at the date of exchange and therefore some of the properties will not have even completed. Chelsea is showing resilience even though other areas are "softening" (if I have a chance I will post some others). Chelsea is an area very dependent upon inherited wealth and foreign buyers. Consequently, most owners are equity rich and if prices fall they can afford to sit tight. James Wyatt FRICS
  22. Here is the link to our latest graph and index. http://www.johndwood.co.uk/pdf/chelsea_property_graph_and_index_july_2010.pdf James Wyatt FRICS
  23. Link to latest graph and index. http://www.johndwood.co.uk/pdf/fulham_house_price_graph_and_index_july_2010.pdf
  24. We do look at Land Registry. However, Land Registry is based upon completions whereas our data is derived from the date of exchange. Consequently, the Land Registry is a lagging indicator by several months. It should also be noted the Land Registry figures are covering Hammersmith and Fulham and our data is only on houses within Fulham. You should also be aware we make adjustments for size by using pounds per square foot, which we believe gives a more accurate reading. The data is independently compiled and all our indices have shown greater volatility in both directions, which is in keeping w
  25. Apologies for not making this more clear April 178 May 175 June 182 I used the "weighted on the downside" expression as this is a good description i.e. there is a greater probability of prices falling due to the underlying economy (see Bank of International Settlements Working Paper 300). Last year, following Lehmans, the market looked as though it would "correct" only for an acute shortage of properties to drive the market to new highs. Our other graphs covering Prime Central London, Chelsea, Notting Hill etc, will be on our website very shortly (www.johndwood.co.uk under Surveyors and P
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.